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Oceania Takes On Eurasia And Eastasia: The Frontlines

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Oceania Takes On Eurasia And Eastasia: The Frontlines

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Written by J.Hawk exclusively for SouthFront

The emerging US strategy appears to be centered on imposing a regime of isolation on Russia and China with the aim of ultimately effecting regime change in both countries through a combination of political, economic, and military measures. The military component consists of building up naval, aerial, and space capabilities for blockade and strike directed at these two countries and any countries aligned with them. The ongoing shift of US military capabilities away from protracted land warfare toward naval and aerial long-range strike using hypersonic weapons and swarming munitions, evidenced by the US Marine Corps’ shedding of its tanks and heavy artillery and the US Army opting for long-range missile arsenals and even anti-ship capabilities, indicates a preference for “non-contact” warfare in the future, with client states being assigned the role of “bleeding” in future conflicts. The fact that even the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, the senior military advisory body to the civilian leadership, a US Army four-star general himself, argues that in the future the US Army will need to have its funding reduced in order to facilitate the US Navy’s improbably ambitious expansion plans, is very telling in and of itself.

The Need for “Access”

NATO’s obsession with so-called “Anti-Access/Area Denial”, or A2/AD “bubbles” supposedly being built by Russia and China in order to protect their territory from NATO’s aggression in locations such as Kaliningrad Region, Crimea, Hainan Island, and other locations, is indicative of the offensive nature of NATO’s operational planning which is plainly inconvenienced by the notion of putative targets being able to shoot back. The development of drone swarms and hypersonic munitions, together with the desperate emphasis on deploying as many of the clearly flawed F-35 stealth fighters as possible, is all part of the technological arms race intended to give offense an advantage over defense. But technology is only one part of the puzzle. The other is that deep-strike technologies require, well, “access” to politically open airspace which may not always be available. Moreover, US deep-strike capabilities may also rely on bases located in client states that would become targets of counterstrikes. That the possibility, indeed the strong likelihood of such retaliation exists was suggested by Russia’s warning to NATO in advance of the post-Douma false-flag operation cruise missile strikes against Syria that, should Russian forces or facilities be targeted, the Russian military would not limit itself to downing the munitions. Instead it would also go after the launch platforms (meaning aircraft and warships) as well as bases from which they were operating. In that context, it would have meant NATO air and naval bases in Greece, Italy, and as far away as Spain, which homeports four US Navy destroyers at Naval Station Rota. One way or the other, the message was received by NATO and no Russian forces or facilities were targeted. But the precedent was established, and we can assume it will be followed in any future confrontations. Which means that United States’ ability to launch strikes against Russia or China, their forces and bases both on and outside its national territory and airspace, will also be limited by client states’ unwillingness to suffer retaliatory strikes. This creates a major diplomatic challenge for the United States, which is relegating its “allies” to the role of punching bags forcing to accept retaliatory blows following its own strikes. The sheer size of Russia and China combined means that the challenge varies from region to region.

The Arctic

Here the situation is relatively the easiest for the US, given the proximity of Alaska where a major military build-up is taking place, including anti-ballistic missile defenses, forward-basing of strategic bombers, and plans for major F-35 permanent deployment in addition to the air-defense F-22s already stationed there. However, these bases have pretty limited reach, even with aerial refueling for the F-35s, which means that to reach targets closer to Arkhangelsk and Murmansk US forces would have to rely, one way or another, on bases in Norway, Iceland, and even Greenland. The likelihood of the relevant political authorities giving assent to the use of these bases in support of strikes against Russian forces or assets in the Arctic reasons appears to be low. Given these countries’ economic interests in the Arctic and the effectiveness of the Arctic Council at managing the problems of the region, it does not appear likely that Norway, Denmark, or Iceland, would go so far as to risk being a target of Russian military retaliation, and the inevitable end to that international organization which would follow. While Sweden and Finland are also making noises about joining NATO, which would enter huge swaths of airspace to “access” by US aircraft and missiles on their way to Russia, the prospect of becoming a target of retaliation has so far kept them from joining that organization outright. One, however, should not discount the possibility of existence of various secret agreements and arrangements that are being kept from these countries’ populations.

Oceania Takes On Eurasia And Eastasia: The Frontlines

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Eastern Europe

Here the United States has two countries that are actually willing, at the governmental level if not popular one, to absorb Russian retaliatory strikes. These are Poland and Romania which have already agreed to host components of US National Missile Defense system, and which are all but guaranteed to give the US whatever “access” it needs in case of an operation against Kaliningrad or Crimea, respectively. The restraining factor here is the fact both of these countries happen to be members of the European Union and will remain such for the foreseeable future in spite of earlier US efforts to split the union by peeling off first Great Britain, and then Eastern Europe. While not members of the Eurozone, they are nevertheless part of the common market and open border zones, and serve as the preferred destination for “outsourcing” by Western European firms seeking to avoid Eurozone’s high labor costs (which creates its own set of problems). The pressure on North Stream 2 and indeed on all EU-Russia economic and political ties is motivated by the desire to eliminate the political resistance to the free use of EU’s airspace for offensive military operations against Russia and its targets. So far it has had little success, and has even elevated North Stream 2 issue to the level of question whether Germany is in any way a sovereign country. United States is also exerting indirect pressure on Germany by actively courting France as its “preferred” continental interlocutor at the expense of Germany. However, the economic benefits of EU-Russia collaboration have proved greater than anything the United States could provide to offset them, and Biden’s own version of “America First” policies is unlikely to be more attractive than Trump’s.

To make matters worse, Poland’s and Romania’s proximity to Russia have meant a certain unwillingness to place major US military bases there, meaning that even when it comes to operations by bombers based in the United States, some of their support functions would be performed by military units based in Germany, Italy, and Great Britain, rendering them vulnerable to retaliatory strikes as well.

Oceania Takes On Eurasia And Eastasia: The Frontlines

Click to see the full-size image

The Pacific

Here, if anything, the situation is even worse for the US than in Europe’s case because there does not appear to be a single country that is an equivalent to Poland and Romania in the sense of having political leadership willing to make their country a hostage to Washington’s military planning. The relevant countries where US currently has bases include Japan and South Korea, neither of which views their relationship with China as a zero-sum game. Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, do not show signs of giving the US a blank check in any situation other than a major threat to their own vital interests by China. The political resistance would mean pushing US support infrastructure to as far as Guam, which is too far and too poorly developed to sustain large-scale carrier battle group operations in eastern Pacific or South China Sea. Even Australia, which has a strong Sinophobic lobby and which moreover self-identifies as part of the “Anglosphere”, is on the fence regarding the desirability of granting unfettered access to Australia’s bases and airspace for the purpose of operations against China.

Oceania Takes On Eurasia And Eastasia: The Frontlines

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Conclusion

The difficulties United States are experiencing at providing the political preconditions for the implementation of their ambitious aero-naval-space blockade and strike capabilities demonstrate the importance of traditional diplomacy to national security. Russia’s outreach to the European Union, the Middle East, and Asia, as well as China’s oft-maligned “Tiger diplomacy” have created a situation in which US military power is functionally displaced by political considerations. It does not even appear that the US leadership is fully aware of the reasons for the ineffectiveness of its military power, otherwise it would not be sending badly overworked aircraft carriers on “double-pump” deployments or keep decades-old strategic bombers on what looks like a repeat of permanent patrols, though this time without nuclear bombs onboard. This is, however, what a multipolar world looks like and will look like going forward. Biden administration’s agreement to extend the New START with Russia for five years without preconditions, over the objections of such hard-liners as Victoria Nuland, suggests there is some reluctant recognition that the world is shifting toward a more equitable distribution of power and wealth.

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Lone Ranger

“The past was alterable. The past never had been altered. Oceania was at war with Eastasia. Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.”

George Orwell, 1984

Garga

Aww maaan… That’s my favourite-and-often-overused quote you wrote right there before me!
Now what do I do? Play with my thumbs?

Lone Ranger

? Sorry bro

Garga

Don’t worry about it. I have to take it out of our Israeli friends or Abu-Tiz or something.

What a nice kitty! Maybe you can teach me how to use emojis in comments -on a PC- instead?

Lone Ranger

I use my Android phone to post comments.
Pre loaded with emojis.
These days its not really worth to turn on the desktop pc except for gaming or some serious work.

Garga

I tell you a secret:
As long as online life and activity is concerned, I’m like Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde. I have a normal, regular activity using smartphones and tablets and PCs with my own name and address and whatnot and another one strictly using an “as much secure as I have knowledge and can” PC not under my own name.
I do this because it’s not normal to have no digital footprint at all.
I never use any Android, Windows or MacOS (yeah, I know it’s called iOS now, it’s an old habit) for the latter since they are absolute worse for privacy and security (I still keep a neutered XP laptop for some things and a few very old altered non-smart mobile phones so I can physically turn off the hardware I want to like the mic or the whole antenna, boy they are ugly after my alterations. I also made some metal boxes with triple steps on doors (was very hard to make), got may hands on special thick metal coated plastic films (made bags) and use jammers when the situation calls for it.).
I tried Linux phones but they were more headache than useful, so I left that idea.

Maybe I’m too paranoid, but you can only imagine what can be done with smartphones and chances are, your wildest imagination are %100 correct.

So, no chance of using emojis on this PC. I shall stick to the old ways then –> ;-)

Lone Ranger

You are taff :)
I may be naive but I think if they really want to find somebody they can.
I dont care if they know where I am.
Im only telling the Truth.
If they cant handle its their problem not mine.
If they want something from me they better bring lunch and bodybags.
It could take a while…

Tommy Jensen

I agree. Refuse to alter personality because of the provocations. This also has one advantage. Sticking to the factual world reshape ones mind and heart.

BMWA1
BMWA1

I’m all for Eurasia!

Jihadi Colin

The biggest problem is that there are many ways of making war and direct aggression is the least likely of them.

The first is attacking and stripping away allies and markets; Libya was destroyed, Syria was almost destroyed, and Ukraine was Nazified to this purpose. Venezuela is another target of this same war strategy.

The second is to starve peoples by interfering with supplies and energy flows by sanctions. Iran is already a victim, and China (unlike Russia) is moving aggressively to ensure that it can’t be blockaded at the Straits of Malacca by Amerikastani puppets (including the gibbering globetrotting genocidal gangster Gujarati government of Narendrabhai Damodardasbhai Modi in India). Russia can be safely blockaded at Gibraltar and the straits between Denmark and Sweden, whatever they’re called; is extremely unlikely that Putinist “restraint” will be abandoned in favour of military action if such a course is adopted.

The third tactic is to use terrorists against the target. This is an old Amerikastani habit since 1979 in Afghanistan. Syria and Libya are only the latest; Amerikastani help to the Chechen terrorists is such that Chechen “ex”-terrorist Akhmad Zakayev openly lives in Londonistan. The Uighurs have already been removed from Amerikastani terrorist lists as has the MeK in Iran. It’s no mystery why that was done.

The fourth tactic is to foment dissention and colour revolution. China was the target in 1979 but crushed the attempt, which involved massive rioting in Beijing and the lynching of unarmed soldiers who went in to restore order. A second attempt in Hong Kong was eliminated last year, so it seems that China is too hard a nut to crack. But the Putinist regime in Russia, already far too accommodating of zionist interests, is a different story, which is why a major colour revolution attempt is being prepared in Moscow. Whether the Putinist regime will finally find the intestinal fortitude to eliminate it is to be seen.

None of these involves direct attacks on Russia or China. Therefore the idea that just because Amerikastan can’t attack them directly, it won’t, is ridiculous. It’s already at full scale war with them, only it hasn’t announced it yet.

Kerwas

You overestimate the “color revolution” attempts by navalny supporters. This is a tempest in a teacup, nothing more. Putin as Ex KGB Major himself is trained in such tactics, he would act accordingly if this would be a real thread. It has a reason why putin is made as a leader of russia. they choosen him because he is what he is and is able to detect such attempts by himself very easily.

Jihadi Colin

Oh, it will fail, but that’s not the point. The point is to cause major trouble and upheavals in Russia. People whose brainwashed brats get killed trying to storm the Duma with Molotov cocktails aren’t going to be forgiving of the government afterwards, no matter what the facts are.

Tommy Jensen

I would be more afraid of the liberal bastion in the financial economic governmental positions.
China is secure because of their one party system. But Russia has the same duality as Brazil had with national presidents but globalists in second ranks with connections to the strong financial powers in West.
Its a weak construction. Putin has strengthen position but I see this as the most soft and dangerous spot in the Russian State,

JIMI JAMES

It failed in belarus s-400 saw the last nail in the cia coffin there,as for russia,sure they need to get like ccp tough,because if they don’t even ccp would deem them as eurasian risk?

Tommy Jensen

Good resume.

cechas vodobenikov

USA over-reach is wearing them down more rapidly than they realize.

Harry Smith

Meanwhile in Saint Petersburg, Russia. In the eve of protests.
https://youtu.be/VqiR6hRStCY

Tommy Jensen

Is this going on right now?

Harry Smith

It’s just augmented reality. :)

Tommy Jensen

If we can dream it we can do it. America is and has always been the leader and a winner nation.

We took over Brazil as a piece of cake from BRICS. We took Ukraine. We have Romania and Poland, the 3 Baltic states, Alaska…………LOL. We own Canada, Australia, Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, Europe.
A gas station and a rice colony with plastic products what can you do??

Everybody loves an American. You cannot beat an American and you know it!!

Dick Von Dast'Ard

The United States does not have the military supremacy able to do what the article suggests.

Tommy Jensen

Proof. Precisely as I told everybody and I was right.comment image comment image

Dick Von Dast'Ard

Whatever your fantasy depicts… The U.S. has a marginal advantage over it’s nearest peer competitors in terms of Global Firepower rankings and that is marginal. (mostly down to the USN and it’s numbers of DDG and SSN’s which are a fat lot of use in a land war)
Combine the military and industrial power of Russia and China v U.S. and Euro-Atlantic Alliance (i.e Britain and France) and the balance of power is in favor of Eurasia.

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