Original by Yuriy “yurasumy” Podolyaka published at Naspravdi; translation from Russian by J.Hawk
During the initial phase of the battle at Avdeyevka, the UAF were able to launch a swift and surprise attack and force back NAF forces from their positions near the Yasinovataya cloverleaf. What happened?
New UAF tactics
One should first of note note that the Kiev regime forces are using new tactics. Each operation is preceded by lengthy preparation (and there is no shortage of time and the front line is static). Then a surprise attack using forces ranging from a platoon to a company. If successful, consolidation on seized positions then defense. If the factor of surprise is lost, immediate retreat to original positions.
Why this worked now and not before
In 2014-15, well organized intelligence was of great help to the Donbass militia and hampered the Kiev regime forces. The local population loyal to the Republics betrayed its “liberators” in any way it could. Now the situation is different.
You may remember that during the fall of 2016 the SBU conducted a total sweep of the territory close to the front line to identify “Republic spies.” Thousands of individuals underwent filtration, dozens were arrested then exchanged for captured UAF soldiers. NAF intelligence thus lost many of its sources and now it can’t provide timely warnings when the enemy is preparing an offensive operation.
1. Maintaining tension along the line of separation in order to convince the West Minsk Agreements are impossible to implement. This is how the regime is trying to back out of a political dead end because implementing the Minsk Agreements would result in being overthrown. Or even in loss of freedom, since many of them would find themselves on trial.
2. Improving the tactical situation and forcing the NAF to launch counterattacks which will be presented to the “world” as Russian acts of aggression which in turn complicates Russia’s position during its negotiations with Europe and the US.
3. Another major factor is building up the fighting spirit of own forces. They are tired of going from defeat to defeat. They need a tiny, but nevertheless a victory. A capture of some checkpoint, be it near Svetlodarsk or Yasinovataya, at the cost of dozens of lives of own soldiers is instantly blown up by the Ukrainian media into a mega-victory.
And this will continue until Kiev forces fall into yet another trap, into yet another encirclement.
But perhaps by that point Washington will angrily call Kiev to order. If presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump agree on the future of Ukraine.