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New ‘Humanitarian Ceasefire’ And Prospects Of Azerbaijani-Armenian War

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New 'Humanitarian Ceasefire' And Prospects Of Azerbaijani-Armenian War

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The Armenian-Azerbaijani war, which started on September 27, continues in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region despite international diplomatic efforts to decrease tensions and motivate the sides to return back to the negotiating table. The interesting fact is that intense clashes and offensive operations of Azerbaijani forces, supported by Turkey and Syrian militants, continue in the region at the same time as the Azerbaijani government claims that it is committed to the ceasefire regime, which entered force in Karabakh on October 10, after the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations in Moscow. At the same time, the Armenian side also claims that it is committed to the ceasefire simultaneously conducting counter-attacks against the advancing Azerbaijani forces.

On October 17 evening, the Armenian Foreign Ministry announced that the sides once again reached a humanitarian ceasefire, which should start at 00:00 local time on October 18. Nonetheless, it is not expected that it will last for long in the current conditions.

The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry:

No:357/20, Information of the Press Service Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia have agreed to a humanitarian truce as of October 18th, 00h00 local time.

This decision was taken following the statement of the Presidents of the French Republic, the Russian Federation and the United States of America, representing the co-chair countries of the OSCE Minsk Group of 1 October 2020, the Statement by the Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group of 5 October, and in line with Moscow Statement of 10 October 2020.

For the Armenian side, the situation is further complicated by the fat that the current Armenian leadership is not ready (or do not want) to employ the entire variety of its means and forces to fight back the ongoing Azerbaijani advance. Instead of this, Armenian forces involved in the conflict are limited to those of the Nagorno-Karakbah Republic (Republic of Artsakh), a self-proclaimed Armenia-affiliated independent state on the territory of Karabakh. The government of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has so far limited its support to Karabakh forces to supplying weapons, sending volunteers (instead of regular forces), complaining in media and calling on other countries to recognize the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic as an independent state, while Armenia itself has made no steps in this direction.

Azerbaijani strikes on Armenian positions and equipment:

As of October 17 evening, the situation on the frontline demonstrates that the Azerbaijani-Turkish side has been slowly but steadily taking an upper hand in the war. Azerbaijani forces have achieved a series of tactical successes in the northern and southern part of the region, capturing two dozens of small towns and villages. The most important of them are Fuzuli, Jabrayl, Hadrut, Madaghis and Talish.

Azerbaijani forces are in Hadrut:

Over the past few days, especially heavy clashes were taking place near the town of Hadrut, from which Armenian forces withdrew after Azerbaijan took control of surrounding heights. Fuzuli experienced a similar fate as the Hadrut heights in fact overlook its countryside. The Armenian side still insists that the town has not been captured by Azerbaijan. But photo and video evidence from the ground, together with official announcements of the Azerbaijani government, indicate that in fact the town was lost.

New 'Humanitarian Ceasefire' And Prospects Of Azerbaijani-Armenian War

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The Azerbaijani military extensively uses its advantage in the air power (an active usage of combat drones for strikes and reconnaissance operations), artillery and manpower. The advance is also supported by radical militant groups deployed by Turkey from the northwest of Syria and Turkish special forces and specialists (especially in the field of EW operations, intelligence and the air domain warfare).

These factors, especially the air dominance, allowed to deliver a notable damage to Armenian forces destroying multiple pieces of their military euqipment and destroying fortified positions, manpower. The oudtated air defense forces of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic appeared to be unable to deal with the threat from Azerbaijani military aircraft, while Armenia also seems to be unable or has no political will to employ its air defense. Just recently, on October 17, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry released a video of strikes on the S-300 system in Armenia.

Azerbaijani strikes on the Armenian S-300 system (deployed in Armenia):

Earlier, Azerbaijan released videos of several strikes on components of the possible S-300 in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

The previous videos include the moments of the alleged destruction of 35D6 (ST-68U) radars and alleged S-300 missile launcher of Armenian forces with Israeli IAI Harop loitering munitions. The first incident took place near the village of Khojaly the Khojaly District, while another one near the village of Qubadlı in the Kashatagh District of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (Republic of Artsakh). The location of the destruction of the S-300 launcher remains unclear.

The strike near Khojaly:

The strike near Qubadli:

Meanwhile, the Azerbaijani side also released a video of the alleged destruction of the S-300 missile launcher. The location of the strike is unclear, but it may have taken place near Qubadli:

Azerbaijani sources also claimed that Azerbaijan destroyed several TOR surface-to-air missile systems of Armenian forces in the combat zone. These claims were not confirmed by video evidence.

Azerbaijan struck Armenian ballistic missile systems (also inside Armenia):

At the same time, the Azerbaijani military conducts intense strikes on civilian infrastructure in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Despite the public claims of the Azerbaijani leadership that the conflict has no ethnic grounds and there is no threat to the Armenian population, in fact, Baku seeks to not only dismantle the self-proclaimed Armenian state, but also to remove or cleanse Armenians there.

The Armenian side responds in a similar manner regularly shelling settlements and towns near the contact line. While some of these strikes may be considered as accidental, as Armenian sources claim, the recent strikes on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja with ballistic missiles are for sure not an accident. According to Azerbaijani authorities, 13 civilians were killed and more than 40 others were injured in the last night attack on the city. The strike was likely conducted with the Soviet R-17 Elbrus tactical ballistic missile complex, which is in service with Karabakh forces.

It is possible that the Turkish-Azerbaijani bloc will develop its further advance along the Iranian border aiming the towns of Qobadli and Zengilan. For Azerbaijan, it will be profitable to extend the frontline because it will allow it to use the advantage in air power and manpower. Meanwhile, the terrain in this part of the region is less complex than in the center or the south. In the event of the success, such an advance will allow to undermine the entire southern flank of Armenian forces deployed in Stepankert and Shusha. This will also create a threat of cutting off the so-called Lachin corridor, a mountain pass within the de jure borders of Azerbaijan, forming the shortest route between Armenia and the Republic of Artsakh.

Another direction of the possible strike is Martakert and Agdam. Nonetheless, in this case, even if Azerbaijani forces achieve a success there, the further advance will be more complicated due to the more complex terrain. In any case, if Baku wants to push the ‘military solution’ of the Karabakh question as its main option, it should regularly demonstrate field gains to its population in order to compensate the negative impacts of the war.

Since the start of the war on September 27, the Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance has achieved a notable tactical progress, but it still needs to turn it into the strategic success if it wants to capture the entire region and push Armenian forces out of it.

The new humanitarian ceasefire announced on October 17 seems like another attempt of the Minsk group, led by France, Russia and the United States, to de-escalate the conflict. Nonetheless, the position of the current Armenian government, which was for years undermining its relations with Russia, and the hardcore posture of Azerbaijan and Turkey that already felt the flavour of the potential military victory will likely not allow to find a ‘constructive’ solution of the situation. Thus, Ankara and Baku will continue demanding a full surrender of Armenia over the Karabakh question, which the Armenian government (even if it wants to do so) cannot accept because this will lead to the immediate collapse of the Pashinyan regime and the instability inside Armenia itself.

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Pave Way IV

Azeris won’t stop their pre-winger campaign until they’ve secured some key mountain positions. They need to prevent Armenians from rebuilding certain radar, EW, intel and comm sites, and replace them with Azeri stuff. If they can – just saying it makes sense from a strategic standpoint. It’s necessary for further advances in the mountains of N-K and more (not complete) freedom of movement around the southern end. They’ll have everything up and running by the Spring.

Pic shows some kind of radar site in Google Earth (no idea if it’s still there or operable). This is only one strategic site they’re aiming at. Probably others on the south, and certainly the same thing on the north. This one has a commanding view of the lowlands and would be quite useful for all sorts of electronics. It has a particularly good view of northern Iran. If nothing else, it denies the site to Armenia for the same military/intel purpose.
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Pave Way IV

The above is critical to ZATO’s scheme to color-revolutionize the 20 million or so Azeri in northern Iran (double the number of Azeri in the Republic of Azerbaijan).

Stirring them up enough could provoke the standard ZATO tactic of a civil war followed by a declaration of independence (and a new ‘unified’ ZATO-muppet, Turk-friendly Azerbaijan 30-million strong). Either that, or a permanently-destabilizing frozen civil war, further weakening Iran from inside. ZATO would only intensify other destabilization operations – the ultimate goal is the collapse and partition of Iran. By now, this should all sound VERY familiar (Iraq, Syria, etc.).

Why is ZATO so interested? Azeri extent in Iran, but most are concentrated in the northern portion of the green area. ZATO only has to convince Iranian Azeris that all their problems are because of Tehran (…not ZATO sanctions), and can be solved by independence. It’s an easy sell when people are pissed off enough.
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RichardD

This video can be watched by clicking on the link below the screenshot.
comment image

https://banned.video/watch?id=5f8b7cca9d7ca5144824dc5e

Random Dude

Through Epstein?:)

RichardD

Through the Jew world order that he was part of.

RichardD
Rhodium 10

Russia are just waiting the fall of Western puppet Pashinyan who have been abandoned by EU and USA…as they support Turkey ( a NATO member) who have the mandate to put the facto NATO in Caspian sea through Georgia…thats why Israel( with the US approval) supply AZ with drones and guide rockets!..Once Pashinyan is removed Russia will send “peacekeeper” troops to NK with or without AZ approval to avoid a new Idlib with Turkish troops and Syrian backed terrorist inside NK commiting etnic cleansing and looting but above all surrounding Armenia from Southwest to Northwest targeting the route by land and air through Iran used by Russian armed forces to supply troops inside Armenia!

Pave Way IV

Russia isn’t waiting the fall of Western puppet Pashinyan. In fact, if Azerbaijan is able to retake N-K and ethnically cleanse it, then the conflict will end. Armenia will complain, of course, but the west will ignore them. Armenia doesn’t have the military resources to retake it if it falls. However, the end of the Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict means both are now candidates for membership in NATO (given certain reforms, etc.). Neither one is eligible for membership until the N-K conflict is over. Azerbaijan gets ZATO weapons, and Armenia gets buckets of ZATO or IMF aid – and weapons. Turkey and Azerbaijan would both probably drop their decades-long embargo against Armenia. The current leaders of Armenia are disposable as far as ZATO is concerned.

Both Russia and Iran unfortunately benefit now because ZATO has been kept off their doorstep. Neither one wants to prolong the conflict just to keep ZATO out, but they both probably underestimated the evil ZATO was capable of employing: Turkey’s Ottoman 2.0, a flood of Israeli weapons, Idlib head-choppers, ethnic cleansing of Armenians from N-K, etc.

Rhodium 10

” The former president was SO inept and corrupt”…NO man!..Pashinyan take the power after a pseudo colour revolution fund by west!..he is a western puppet who banned Russia Tv and Russia lenguage and did not expelled Russian military because many Syrian- Armenians are fighting in Syria war vs Turkish backed terrorist!…for other side one of the main reason of AZ offensive is again to discredit Russia and his military deterrence supplying AZ with Turkish advisors and Syrian terrorist for one hand and for another all kind of Israeli weapons ( loitering drones and guide rockets)..the second reason is to put Turkish military( NATO) and Syrian backed terrorist close to Iran border once South NK has been taken!…and the third reason is to expand the Neo Otoman influence in Caspian as counterpart to Russia and Iran!…of course i dont have any doubts that Russia will move his chess pieces like they did in Syria and Libya where Turkish failed to achieve his goals!

Pave Way IV

“Pashinyan take the power after a pseudo colour revolution fund by west!.”

The western NGOs were stirring up trouble in Armenia, but this was hardly a western-backed color revolution. Where is ‘the west’ now? What, exactly, is Pashinyan in charge of that the west even cares about? The debt-ridden economy? Emigration out of Armenia by young and old alike and a declining population of less than 3 million? An unrecognized N-K that Armenia can’t possibly afford to defend anymore?

Turkey and Azerbaijan have been strangling Armenia economically for decades – the U.S. was aware of what was happening. Armenia’s own oligarchs sucked the last bit of economic life out of it. The IMF loaned Armenia it’s full $128m limit, and then abandoned it. Western powers promoting a more anti-Russian Armenia have stabbed Armenia in the back and ignore it today. Those western powers never really cared about N-K and probably saw it (and Armenian irredentialist ambitions) as a growing threat to ‘their pipelines’. Remember how quickly ‘the west’ backstabbed the Kurds after their referendum?

Russia isn’t going to spend hundreds of millions on Armenia ever again just to save face (or keep out NATO). There isn’t any last minute 14-dimensional chess move that Putin is going to make. ‘Russian deterrence’ isn’t discredited because they have no more interest in providing any to Armenia. None of Russia’s security interests are threatened by the loss of Armenia, or the loss of N-K. At least none that outweigh Russia’s current relations with Azerbaijan.

It sucks, Rhodium, but that’s the way it looks to me. The first time I even heard of the current Armenian/Azerbaijan fighting on U.S. evening news was yesterday, and they focused on 1) the pipelines, and 2) Iran’s possible reaction to missiles hitting it’s soil. So it’s not like Azerbaijan is favored over Armenia. Western MSM is just ignoring both.

John Brown

Yes I agree

Armenians soldiers outflanked and being slaughtered their
army looks to be on the verge of total collapse it’s becoming a route a
humiliation a massacre.
Armenians soldiers dropping their weapons and fleeing and
running in panic around Jabril.
Looks really bad like its game over Armenia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdqyG3CcoLM
Armenians getting their asses kicked
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyfriipc61A
George Soros is laughing as the puppets he installed in the
coup in Armenia are following his orders to destroy Armenia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgflCE7zRpc

Random Dude

How did you get to that conclusion?:))))comment image

cechas vodobenikov

these predictions are silly—amerikans and turkeys, SA made early gains in Vietnam, Korea, Syria, etc and were /are being defeated in Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, etc
the unreliable reporting, especially azeri, where they do not reveal their casualties–at least 6000 dead reveals little

Julian Clegg

What is SA? Saudi Arabia? South Africa? USA without the U???

Samuel Vanguard

ceasefires are just mere rhetoric

RichardD
RichardD

At the end of this video the presenter says that Blomberg is on the hard drives and talks about his involvement in running the bioweapon operation. Something that I’ve covered here previously. Including the event 201 exercise.

Tudor Miron

How many S-300 Azeri’s destroyed already? I’ve lost count by now.

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