Written by Vassily Van’kov; Commented by Azhdar Kurtov, Mikhail Aleksandrov; Originally appeared at SP, transalted by AlexD exclusively for SouthFront
As we approach the NATO summit in Warsaw scheduled for July 8-9, the mood surrounding this event is getting hotter.
“It feels like we are on the threshold of a catastrophe.” Such a thought was given to the correspondent of IA Regnum by the head of the conservative-patriotic movement Błękitna Polska Krzysztof Zagozda, commenting the unilateral cancellation by Warsaw of the preferential local border crossings (World Food Programme, WFP) with the Kaliningrad province
“Since American interests are pursued here, we expect a continuous increase of tension with Russia”, said Zagozda.
According to his words, “the majority of Poles oppose this, we do not have any mutual grievances with Russia, but, unfortunately, politician and the media, are in foreign hands, induce hostility.”
“This was manifested in foreign troops, whose presence is not appreciated by the Poles. There is much concern”, mentions the expert.
However the “war party” represented by the Ukrainian delegation boasted that within the framework of the forum, a separate meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Commission will be held.
As the President of the Ukraine Petro Poroshenko declared, during the upcoming NATO summit in Warsaw, the member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance are going to approve a package of measures to help the Ukraine in matters of security and defence.
From the results of the NATO meeting, Poroshenko plans to negotiate a comprehensive aid package, strengthening the defence forces of the APU (Auxiliary Power Unit) for more powerful security structures.
Let us remember that on Saturday (July 2) at the Borispol airport a batch of military equipment arrived from the USA, sent to the strengthen the armed forces of the Ukraine. This time the APU was satisfied with the batch of counter-battery radars. And on this occasion a grand ceremony was held at the airport.
Volodymir Gorbulin, director of National Institute of Strategic Studies (who, concurrently, works with the presidential advisor in Ukraine), speaks on the course of a military settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.
According to Gorbulin, the perception of the current situation in the Donbas as a “truce” is a mistake.
“In fact, the current state of affairs appears as the next stage of a long-term conflict, prior to its aggravation. The prospects of large-scale military clashes appear on the horizon more clearly”, summed up the advisor to the head of the Ukraine.
According to the editor-in-chief of the magazine “Problems of National Strategy” RISS, Azhdar Kurtov, Poland will increase its activities on the European political front.
— The British exit, even if it is inconclusive, increases the hopes of many Polish politicians that they will be able to take Great Britain’s place in the EU.
Svobodnaya Pressa (Free Press) (SP): What is needed for this?
— First, to create the impression of Polish significance in Eastern Europe. As they claim in Warsaw, the suspension of the Agreement about local border crossings with the Kaliningrad province is a temporary measure. Although there are no concrete deadlines indicated.
Either way, these actions of the Polish establishment fit well with the alarmist mythology of an invasion. Logically, the abolition of this zone is possible; it should be taken as a preventive measure.
Also Warsaw is demonstrating its loyalty to the USA in the hope of getting additional support for its status in the EU. At the same time, the aim is to rely on statements of the eurobureaucracy of the EU, which the one and only Tusk is doing.
SP: The Poles are practising a particular right-wing regime by giving away “Pole’s Cards”. How safe is it?
—The Polish authorities distribute such cards in the Kaliningrad province, in Belarus, in Western Ukraine. However, should Moscow adopt the same policy, this would be viewed almost as aggression. It seems, that Warsaw wants to increase as much as possible its influence amid such perturbations, such that happen on the Ukraine.
Do not forget that a group of Polish politicians cherish the idea of the creation of the Commonwealth “from sea to sea” (from the Baltic to the Black sea).
SP: Some “distinguished Poles” clearly itch in the province “Eastern Borderland”…
— Something like that. At the same time, I would propose not to dramatize the situation. Poland acts like a provocateur, on the diplomatic level nothing will be achieved by Warsaw. Attempts to pull the “High Foursome”, especially France or Germany will collapse. Thus, in the medium term, the Poles may change their line, trying to bet on the union with Germany. How much will they be able to achieve, it is difficult to say at the moment.
But this alliance can strengthen the shaky European Union after Great Britain’s exit.
SP: Will this team be advantageous to Washington?
— I am not sure about this. As for the efforts of the USA on the creation of the explosive situation in the East, they were, are and will be. Thus the degree of realization of such provocations is not very high.
The expert of the Centre Military-Political Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MSIIR) Mikhail Aleksandrov ties the suspension of the WFP activities with the NATO summit in Warsaw.
— In general, the Poles are interested that it passes peacefully and quietly.
SP: Do they fear, that the Russian “fifth column” has such a long arm; Kaliningrad to Warsaw is quite far?
— They fear provocations from their own citizens, who will express their concerns about the bloc’s move to the East.
SP: We can assume that a lot of local pacifists will gather. This will also be attributed to the “Kremlin’s intrigues”?
— I think so without a doubt. By the way, if the Polish authorities carried out a total ban on the border crossings, it would be even better: the less we have contact with the West, the better. All these Pole’s Card [SF: a document confirming belonging to the Polish nation] had a corrupting influence on the Ukrainian public. They pull our people into corrupt schemes, into contraband. The end result is thatpeople become loyal not so much to Russia, but how many were snared by their “mafia octopus”.
SP: Can our competitors operatively cut the Kaliningrad enclave from the Russian Federation?
— I do not think so, even if you cut the railway communication, the maritime and air “bridges” still remain. At most, we can “break through a military corridor” through the Baltics. So far our leadership plays by the rules, stays quiet, but sometimes you have to give such hints. One must periodically warn our “partners” about the possibility of a second version of the Cuban crisis. And then Russia will have to take a set of harshest of measures.
Cowardly politics, as is well know, only calls for aggression. Why the Americans on their ships creep towards our military bases? The strategic balance is not changed but they, as before, brazenly intrude. One can ask, what the USA’s Navy destroyer does in the Black Sea? It’s main objective it to show that they are tough and are not afraid of anybody.
And we must do the same. Only then they will take into consideration Russia’s interests.
SP: After Brexit, Warsaw automatically raises its role in pan-European business?
— The problem with this is that Britain did not leave NATO. By leaving the EU, it did not stop being a member of the Western civilization. Of course, inside the EU there are disagreements about who has to pay the “banquet” represented by the East European “parasites”. And the migrants that Frau Merkel is vigorously calling into the EU. The global interests of the English are in Asia, Australia and Canada, where they have business since their colonial times.
For this they do not have any reason to cook in the “European cauldron” which more and more rots away.
SP: But in economic terms the Germans will have to “pay the Eurobanquet”?
— Of course, Britain is part of the NATO military support group. Poland does not even have any nuclear arms. True, as much as we know, the Defence Ministry of Poland is looking at the possibility to petition NATO with the request of positioning on its territory nuclear weapons. In addition, the decision has been taken about plans for the deployment of the land version of the Aegis Combat System.
To be honest, this system became obsolete even before it was deployed. Let them put as much money as possible into nothing.
SP: Poland is ready to get involved at the volunteer level in the next fratricidal slaughter in the Donbas?
— The main sponsor is the USA. The Poles and Balts demand from Washington that they sponsor the Ukraine. I do not think that German and, judging by the electoral success of Trump, American taxpayers are happy with such an idea. The IMF, if I’m not mistaken, did not provide another tranche to the Ukraine. The Americans are ready under their guarantee to give a few billions, but I do not think that such a sum will save the Maidan project.
SP: So the various “Anaconda 2016”, “Baltops 2016”, “Rapid Trident 2016” and other “evil” from the West is not worth taking seriously?
— I would not treat this too leniently. These are military-political actions of a non-friendly character. Accordingly, Moscow must as well deploy as many troops to the Western part of the country. Why do we have troops in the middle of the country? They must be put closer to the potential conflict zone.