Military Situation in Aleppo City on October 28, 2016 (Evening)

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Military Situation in Aleppo City on October 28, 2016 (Evening)

Today morning,  the Jaish al-Fatah militant coalition, led by Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian Al-Qaeda branch), launched a massive assault on the Syrian government forces in Aleppo city in order to lift the siege from militant-controlled areas of the city.

The joint militant forces involved into the operation consists of Jabhat Fatahl al-Sham, Ahrar al-Sham, Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki, the Islamic Front and a number of less known militant groups and units. In total, over 20 militant groups are involved.

The joint militant forces used at least 4 Suicide Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (SVBIEDs) to break the government forces’ defenses. By evening, the miltant media outlets have claimed the ‘liberation from regime’ of the 1070 Apartment project and the Al-Assad Neighborhood in western Aleppo.

Pro-government sources denied the both claims and the Russian military even claimed that the attack had been repelled. Furthermore, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin declined the general staff’s request to renew air strikes on militants outside Aleppo city. The Russian Aerospace Forces don’t provide air support to the Syrian army and its allies during the recent clashes, officially. (No official and really detalied explanation of this decision is aviable)

Military Situation in Aleppo City on October 28, 2016 (Evening)

Click to see the full-size map

Excluding PR statements and the war propaganda, the real situation on the ground looks like:

  • The joint militant forces entered and almost seized the Al-Assad Neighborhood. This is the only really confirmed gain of the so-called ‘moderate rebels’. However, clashes are ongoing in the area with massive usage of artillery and warplanes.
  • Jabhat Fatah al-Sham & Co also made advances inside the 1070 Apartment Project, seizing few building blocks. The statements that it’s under the full control of the area are described as false by local sources.
  • The main defenses of pro-government forces are now in the 3000 Apartment Project, the Assad Military Academy and in the eastern part of the 1070 Apartment Project.
  • Since the start of the advance, Jaish al-Fatah has lost up to 30 militants, 5 armored fighting vehicles, 2 infantry fighting vehicles, 8 ‘techicals’ with mounted weapons and 2 main battle tanks, according to pro-government sources.
  • As SouthFront earlier predicted the government’s actions and the terrain features have not allowed the joint militant forces to achieve significant gains in the area (despite claims of some media that use clickbaiting headlines to attract the audience). If the Syrian military and its allies continue to keep the defense and counter massive usage of SVBIEDs by ‘moderates’, they will be able to win this battle.

A map of alleged plan of the militants’ offensive from the social media:

Military Situation in Aleppo City on October 28, 2016 (Evening)

Click to see the full-size map

Strategically, even without the Russian Aerospace Forces, the Syrian army, Hezbolalh and other pro-government units have an advantage in the airpower and firepower. Their goal is to keep the united frontline and use this advantage, destroying the militant forces step by step.

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  • Pampi Ta

    Thank you but again, you have to be very accurate : Putin refused to resume airstrikes on eastern Aleppo only, not on southern or western Aleppo. Yourself you reported yesterday that Russian planes were bombing western Aleppo.

    • We provided Russia’s official attitude in the article. Yesterday, there were reports (from local sources and others) about Russian air strikes.

      • Pampi Ta

        Not exactly. You wrote : The Russian Aerospace Forces don’t provide air support to the Syrian army and its allies during the recent clashes, officially.
        They don’t provide air support in eastern Aleppo, not western Aleppo, or am I wrong ?
        Anyway, than you for your great job ! It’s the best assessment on the situation we can find in the net.

        • 1) There is nothing to provide in eastern Aleppo. It’s a militant-controlled part of the city.
          2) The Russian Air Force does not provide a close air support to the Syrian army clashing with terrorists in Aleppo – it’s an official attitude, now.

          • MeMadMax

            Hey, could you give Mr. Putin a message for me?

            “Quit playing around, and end this. NOW. You make yourself look like scaredy cat of big bad crybaby obama.”

            -Thanks

          • Feel free to google the Kremlin website and to do this.

  • paul

    It is good to get a cool headed assessment, though clearly the situation
    is tense and not completely clear.

  • Drinas

    What’s the situation? It’s FUBAR, though in the great halls of the Kremlin they will say simply-
    “Всё хорошо, прекрасная маркиза”..

  • Brad Isherwood

    Russian TAC air and Syrian are clobbering the Takfiri Kooks all over the map as they say.
    When the Fleet * arrives. ..Russia will get right to it ….using new designed weapons and theatre
    C4I operations.
    If Kerry cries about Aleppo. …watch him howl when Syrian Airforce with Russian air cover
    Rolls east and lizard plinks ISIS from Raqqa to Der Ezzor.

    Happy Hunting : )

    • Jens Holm

      very optimistic

  • Pavel Pustina (ARTforU)

    Russia handed over document to UN about war crimes of US coalition in Syria. Flash back attack by diplomatic way.

  • Marek Pejović

    It’s a good assessment, but what I lack about this assessment is at least some mention of the opposing forces. otherwise it’s completely abstract…
    1. So, how many pro-Syrian fighters are there? what’s the artillery support? how intense is the SyAAF air bombardment (they should be all-out).
    2. How many terrorists are there? are VBIEDs expected to keep attacking (considering their ridiculously high rate of success)?
    3. and why doesn’t anyone look into the fact that this time the assault force is made with a whole laundry list of small companies. how does that effect the overall performance?

  • John Whitehot

    lmao. Was it an attempt by the ragheads to induce the russian military to start bombing the city again, so to increase international pressure on Putin? if it’s so, then they failed at this, they failed at the offensive and they failed at convincing anybody that they are able to put up serious offensive operations. Notice how they used suicide bombers like back in august when they actually managed to attack into the city. It’s like they tried to make it appear like it was the same thing, but actually there was nothing else. If things are like this, it seems that these headchopping camelfuckers analphabets still haven’t understand they are not able to outwit anybody.