On November 28, SouthFront released a video analysis entitled “Would Anyone Profit From a New War in the Middle East?”. The video sated that the possibility of a new war in the region in the near future was relatively low because no regional player was interested in it.
The only side, which could be interested in a new conflict, was the United States because such a war will contribute to interests of the American military industrial complex and lead to the growth of oil prices. High oil prices will impact positively the US shale oil production.
However, it was hard to expect developments, which took place this week. On December 6, US President Donald Trump officially recognized the city of Jerusalem as Israel’s true capital and declared an official intent to move the US embassy there. The decision faced a condemnation from the regional powers, including Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Algeria, Turkey, Qatar and Iran, and the international community.
The observed reduction of tensions among concerning parties immediately turned into a new round of escalation in the region.
Following Trump’s declaration, Politburo Chief of the Palestinian Hams movement Ismail Haniyeh called for an uprising against Israel in the West Bank and Jerusalem and declared December 8 the “day of rage”. Hezbollah released an official statement supporting Hamas’ intent and called on the Arab League and the Islamic world to provide a political, media, financial and even military support for the Palestinian people.
On December 7, the Palestinian al-Nasser Salah al-Deen Brigades fired several rockets at the Israeli settlements of Hof Ashkelon and Sha’ar HaNegev north of the Gaza Strip. The group said in a statement that this was only the first response to the US decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and said that more actions will follow. The Israeli Defense Forces said that a battle tank and a warplane had targeted two posts in Gaza in response to the shelling.
Iraqi paramilitary group Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba declared that Tumpr’s decision is a “legitimate reason” to attack US soldiers in Iraq.
“Trump’s stupid decision… will be the big spark for removing this entity [Israel] from the body of the Islamic nation, and a legitimate reason to target American forces” Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba leader Akram al-Kaabi declared according to Reuters.
Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba is a part of the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), an umbrella organization composing of various pro-government militias officially. The PMU is officially incorporated into the Iraqi Armed Forces. This clearly put lives of the US soldiers in Iraq at risk.
On December 8, large anti-Israeli riots erupted across the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and Jerusalem. Israel responded with deploying security forces and the army. According to reports, at least two Palestinians have been killed and 217 others have been injured in the ongoing violence so far. The Israeli government warmly welcomed the US decision. It is not going to tolerate any opposition from the Palestinians.
The US political elites could not have been unaware of the impact of the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital on the situation in the region. Was this move a part of the system policy of the US or just a caprice of Trump and his inner circle?
When such irrational events happen, willing or not, an independent observer starts taking into account various conspiracy theories.
The situation is rapidly escalating and the region is now on the verge of a new war again. Israel is ready to implement active military measures in response to any actions of Hamas, Hezbollah or any other regional players.
In any case, Trump bears direct responsibility for the escalation in the region and possible casualties from the both sides.