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May Q&A: Dissolution Of U.S. And Future Of Syria

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This is the fourth of our monthly Q&A videos. The questions were collected via a special post on the SouthFront Patreon account.

The first question comes from i. Why doesn’t America’s main adversaries (Russia, China, Iran) ever put meaningful support such as arms and explosives behind US radical groups like Dugin wrote about in his book Last War on the World Island? With growing racial, class, cultural, and regional tensions its not like certain segments of American society wouldn’t be trigger happy. Just for clarification, encouragement for law breaking or other dangerous acts was neither stated or implied in my question.

Answer: Like it or not, the modern global system is based on  US economic dominance and the US dollar as the global currency. Despite multiple discussions and speculations regarding the multipolar and even post-multipolar world, so far, there has been no working system proposed to replace the the current one. Key powers participating in this existing system are interested in its stability at least in the short term, until the creation of a new system and approaches. We covered this topic in our previous videos.

It may seem surprising, but in the established situation, major perturbations would play into the hands of the global hegemon. The US has the chance to exploit a series of large regional conflicts or a relatively global conflict to make the system more or less stable. However, they would pursue only that kind of stability (like after the WWI or the WWII), which would contribute to the strengthening of the new core of the US.

Now, let’s look at other global players. Despite the growing tensions with Washington, China remains the key trade partner of the US. The Chinese economy directly depends on the health of the US economy. This will remain unchanged for the next 5 years, as a minimum. At the first glance, modern Russia is less dependent on the US because of the ongoing sanction war and the structure of its foreign trade. Nonetheless, a large crisis inside the US would create jitters around the world. This would create instability across Russia’s huge frontier and inside Russia itself. Another important point is that a large part of the Russian elite is incorporated with global capital, including the US elites. Representatives of the Russian elite have financial assets in the US and Western Europe. Their kids live there and study in top US and European universities. The Chinese elite acts in another way. China is developing and promoting its own education and science. It’s carefully managing and controlling its own bureaucratic apparatus. This is a more coherent national policy than the Russian one. In any case, Russia is not interested in the dissolution of the US.

As to Iran, it is a regional power rather than a global player. It has no capabilities and, at a closer look, political willpower to realize such a strategy. One of the indications of the latter is the fact that Mohammad Javad Zarif remains the country’s foreign minister. We already explained this situation in the February 2019 Q&A video. At the same time, US authorities have an effective defense and covering strategy for the homeland. They are strengthening security on the border with Mexico. The US Army and Navy are controlling maritime borders. The FBI, NSA and other special services have excellent tools (both technical and human intelligence) to control the internal situation.

It is important to note that the analysis above is relevant for the current situation and the immediate future – around 5 years. The modern world is impacted by developing reactive processes. There are observable symptoms that the current world order may collapse or suffer from a major shock. Such developments may take place during the next 5-15 years. If this happens, remaining key geopolitical players could use both hard and soft power inside the US.

The second question is from Steven Hartley. Hi I’m wondering if the USA is sending troops to the Middle East, which countries and does this mean Iraq if this does mean Iraq how will this effect Iraq and Iran relations. Fr Hartley

Answer: Modern Iraq remains a country largely occupied by US forces and, thus, influenced by the Washington establishment. However, even in this situation, Iraq is an important economic and diplomatic partner of Iran. Let’s recall that pro-US experts and mainstream media describe the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units, the most capable military structure in Iraq, as “Iranian proxies”. If we ignore these kinds of labels and simplifications, the Iranian military and political influence in Iraq is an obvious fact and in the event of a hot regional conflict US forces and infrastructure in this country will be an easy target for Iranian forces and their local allies. The limited US military buildup in the Middle East would not impact Iranian-Iraqi relations. Furthermore, Washington has more than enough infrastructure objects in other Middle Eastern states that can be used for preparations of military aggression against Iran.

The third question is from CJ Saalman. From a Russian/Syrian perspective, what would Syria look like if all political and military objectives could be met? In terms of geography (Golan, Idlib, east of Euphrates, border with Turkey), and in terms of ethnic, religious, or political groups (Kurds, Turks, Sunni Salafists et al)? Can Syria regain its oil fields/refineries in areas occupied by foreign fighters? How long for Idlib to be liberated? Can east of Euphrates be cleared of Kurds, and what part should Kurds play in the future; how much land should they be allowed to occupy, and can Syria disabuse them of their autonomy plans? When can the Yankoff’s be made to leave? Why not drop a bomb on al Tanf? Sometimes I wish Russia would deploy a few brigades and just clean the whole damn country out. What’s up with the duplicitous Turks? Is Erdy the loose cannon or what? Can the Golan ever be recovered? Can Israel ever be dealt with; alternatively, why doesn’t the US relocate all Palestinians to the US — if we can take in 60 million Mexicans, why not far fewer Palestinians? Will a day ever come when Russia/China backing regional forces, deliver a crushing blow to the damned Yankoff’s? I hope I haven’t asked too many questions.

Answer: We would like to take this occasion to ask you and our audience to avoid using derogatory terms in your questions. In the future, we will ignore questions written in such a style.

As to the core of your question, or, more precisely, questions, the war in Syria is not an ordinary “civil war” as many mainstream media outlets and Western diplomats tend to claim. The Syrian war is a complex conflict involving key regional and global players and a comprehensive political solution of this conflict would be possible only if all the sides that have a direct impact on the situation: the US, Iran, Turkey, Russia and the Syrian government, would have the political will to reach a kind of compromise. At some moments, it looked like Teheran, Ankara and Moscow had, at least formally, reached this kind of compromise in the framework of the Astana format talks and publicly declared their commitment to Syrian territorial integrity. Initially, the Astana format allowed a de-escalation to be achieved in the so-called Idlib zone and along the contact line between the Syrian Army and Turkish proxies in northern Aleppo. Nonetheless, contradictions remained regarding the future of Syria, the role of the Assad government in it and the level of Turkish influence in this future Syria. This predetermined the continuing Ankara support to radical groups in Idlib and the current escalation in the area.

Turkey, as any independent state, first of all pursues its own interests. We covered the Turkish strategy and stance on the situation in our September 2018 video «Turkish Strategy In Syria: Military Operations, Proxies And Idlib Issue». Since then, the Erdogan government has not changed its approach.

Iran is not going to accept US-Israeli demands to withdraw from the country. It is interested to keep in power the government that would allow it to continue using Syria as an important foothold in the region. Indeed Teheran is prepared to support the Syrian government in the economic, diplomatic and military fields.

Washington is not only rejecting the legitimacy of the Assad government, but is undertaking  direct actions to undermine the country’s territorial integrity using both its own military forces and local proxies known as the Syrian Democratic Forces. It seeks to force Iran to withdraw from the country as well to empower the government that would secure US and Israeli interests in Syria. In the current situation, the creation of this kind of government for a united Syria seems unlikely. So, Washington’s goal is the destruction of Syrian sovereignty and territorial integrity.

At this very moment, Russia seems to be the only influential player that is ready to negotiate to find a political solution to settle the conflict if this solution would guarantee its diplomatic, military and economic interests in the region. Nonetheless, this readiness is not enough to change the situation fundamentally. Another factor is that the Russian leadership has its own experience of deals with the US and its allies. This experience tells that even if a deal is reached, the Euro-Atlantic establishment will always seek to avoid fulfilling their own part of the deal.

Taking into account the contradictions in the framework of the Astana format and the established situation in the region, it’s unlikely that the Assad government will get the chance to reestablish control over the entire Syrian territory in the near future.

In the coming months, the Idlib zone will remain the main hot point in Syria. At the same time, the Syrian Democratic Forces with direct support from the US will continue their efforts aimed at de-facto separation of the northwestern part of Syria from the Syrian state. There are few non-military options to turn back this process if the Kurds and Damascus reach no comprehensive political deal. Nonetheless, Washington has successfully blocked negotiations between Damascus and the Kurds through its influence on the Kurdish political leadership.

It should also be noted a theoretical military strike on US forces deployed near al-Tanf or in northwestern Syria would lead to the start of a hot regional war in the Middle East. Iran, Syria and Russia are not interested in this scenario.

The fourth question is from Michael Riley. Could you please do video on the weapons at the disposal or Iran. And the likely outcome of an armed conflict with the US?

Answer: In the coming months, we are planning to release a military analysis describing the military capabilities of Iran and its symmetric and asymmetric answers to the challenges and threats that it faces in the region. Special attention will be paid to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and their role in Iranian defense policy and the region. Nonetheless, we can provide no precise forecast when the video will be released. We want to recall that our capabilities to produce long documentaries have been hampered by our recent difficulties with the donation budget collection.

The fifth question is from Jean-luc Martel. Could you do a video on the recent Russian contaminated crude oil crises and it’s possible causes/effects?

Answer: We are going to release videos about the political, social and economic situation in Russia in the future. However, it is unlikely that this very topic will be covered anytime soon.

These are all the questions, which we received in May. On Patreon you will find a post where you can ask your questions for the June Q&A video.

Thank you for your support!

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  • You can call me Al

    “Answer: We would like to take this occasion to ask you and our audience to avoid using derogatory terms in your questions. In the future, we will ignore questions written in such a style.”

    What derogatory terms – “Yankoff’s”?…….for them, that is quite complimentary, they should be called a lot worse than that ?.

    • It’s important to avoid mixing governments and nations. There is an important difference. There are well-known cases when governments act in contrary to interests and will of their own nations. The popularity of the term “deep state” used to describe collusion and cronyism that exists within the US political system is also an example.
      Sincerely yours,
      SF Team

      • Tudor Miron

        This is exactly why your answer “Representatives of the Russian elite have financial assets in the US and Western Europe. Their kids live there and study in top US and European universities. Russia is not interested in the dissolution of the US.” (c) is misleading. Here you’re clearly mixing governments (which is also not homogeneous) and a nation.
        But you’re right in terms that Russian nation is not interested in violent dissolution of US per se. What we’re interested in is a dissolution of western hegemony that brought the world on the brink of ecological, plitical and military catastrophe.
        However, it is not Russia who’s working on dissolution of US hegemony (which is impossible to not see happening in front of our eyes). Same powers that created it are now working on reformatting it. That is not a change of plans but in contrary – they are implementing long term plan. It doesn’t go smoothly for them thought.

        • 1691

          You don’t have to take them seriously.We, luckily ” have” freedom of speech and every tom, dick &harry is entitled to have an opinion.

      • You can call me Al

        OK thanks, my apologies.

      • Redadmiral

        “It is important to avoid mixing governments and nations.” Wrong, wrong and wrong again. But even if you weren’t “Wrong”, why is it important not to mix Governments and Nations? Nations are the constructs of the Capitalist Class as are the political parties within the nation. Governments are nothing more than the management team of one or the other capitalist parties who usually have a rouse or two to get/keep their “voters on side”. What difference do you think there would be if a Clinton Regime were calling the shots rather than this Trump Regime or for that matter a Bernie Saunders one? The answer is None, The last President who tried to buck the system was publicly executed in Dallas. Unfortunately, the people who are now bound to these capitalist constructs have had their hearing impaired, been blindfolded/gagged and hoodwinked.
        Of course it is important to distinguish between the people of the country and their elected representatives who choose to do what they are told by faceless psychopaths. As cicero noted ages ago, traitors who move freely among us peddling the soft soap of their masters are more formidable than a well armed enemy at the gate

        • RichardD

          I think that by nations SF was referring to the citizens and what’s in their collective interests and preferences.

          • Redadmiral

            You are probably right RD, however, it is loose language from hair splitters.

          • RichardD

            You’re making false accusations. They’re using the dictionary definition of nation.

  • Rob

    Former Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi dies ‘in court’ – state TV

    Morsi was allied with America and that is why America removed him by coup.

  • Rob

    US President Donald Trump does not appear to be in control of his own administration’s Iran policy and he should fire national security adviser John Bolton, special adviser to EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini told RT.

  • Loung Kodak

    — “Russia is not interested in the dissolution of the US“

    Who’s not? Definitely a good idea.

    😆

    • paul ( original )

      By contrast I think the USA is most definitely interested in the dissolution of Russia.

  • RichardD

    My view on Syrian territorial integrity is that it’s an ongoing process of wresting administrative control from Jew world order Yinon plan regime change terrorists.

    60% of the land and 70% of the airspace has been recovered. The Turks haven’t done anything directly with their military assets in Idlib to confront the SAA and company. Other than a little he said she said tit for tat. The extent to which they’re covertly supporting the terrorists is classified and isn’t currently open source information.

    But it probably isn’t much different than the clearing operations on the Jordanian and occupied Golan borders. And relocating terrorists from Idlib to SDF areas prior to their recovery is probably in the planning stages. And from there to Iraqi Kurdistan as the baby raper’s Israelistan project in SDF areas gets shut down after Idlib is recovered.

    At that point it would be a good time to move ahead with planetary dejudification starting with the end of Israel and it’s replacement at the UN with unified Palestine.

    • El Mashi

      Are you a crypto Zionist troll? You fool no one.

      • RichardD

        No, I’m not a “crypto Zionist troll”. Can you define what one is and how you think that I fit your definition? I’m not a Zionist of any type. I thought that I made that perfectly clear in my post. Do you have trouble understanding the English language using proper grammar and dictionary definitions?

        What is it about my post that you disagree with?

        • pappa gone

          no, to me seem there are some trolls from same assets of ever that wants to confusing the comments and make lose time to real readers.

    • Sean

      I think they took over Turkey in 1918-1919 and massacred the Armenians shortly after, so they aren’t going anywhere. The best bet for getting jews out of power in my opinion is for them to lose control of the US and Europe, from there they will lose their grip on much of the world and they would lose their life line which is the US and Europe. Once Americans and the rest of the world is told that Mossad and dual citizen American-Israelis in high positions within the US government were responsible for the terrorist attack on the world trade center on 9/11, while also revealing the string of Mossad terrorist attacks in Europe and the Middle East, as well as the IDF’s deliberate attack on the USS Liberty in 1967, Israel would be toast. They wouldn’t receive support from Russia, China or India whose governments also maintain good relations with Israel; as that could upset their relations with their Islamic neighbors and Muslims already present in their own countries.

      • RichardD

        “so they aren’t going anywhere”

        Their entire history is one of forced relocation. This needs to be replaced by getting rid of them completely. And extinguishing Judaism as practicing ideology by outlawing it and closing the synagogues and yeshivas.

        Jews aren’t omnipotent, far from it. They always make themselves persona non grata by their victimization of non Jews. As they’re brain washed from birth by the Talmud to do.

  • RichardD

    The problem with the US is a lack of patriotism by people in government. They’re first priority in life is Israel and Jews. Both of which should be done away with for the well being of Americans and humanity. Being a Zionist Israel firster willing to sell out your country and constituents to an evil blood sucking pedophile cult that rapes 1,000 children a week is a prerequisite for political office in the US. This needs to change. American Jews should be extinct.

    • El Mashi

      The United States began by selling out to the slave owning class. Then they sold out to big industry and big oil. Then they established the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, and sold out to big banks and Wall Street. Wall Street and the federal reserve is the bastard child of JP Morgan and Lord Rothschild. Israel is also the primogener of Lord Balfour and Lord Rothschild. So, IT’S ALL IN THE FAMILY. Capitalism is the bloodstream of Private Finance. Abolish capitalism and private finance atrophies.

      • RichardD

        The problem isn’t capitalism, the whole world uses it. The problem is Jews misusing their positions within capitalism.

        • Sinbad2

          What does capitalism mean?
          An economic system based on capital.
          What is capital?
          Money.
          Who controls the money?
          The banks, the moneylenders Jesus warned you against.
          Most workers now believe that capitalism, which is merely a Jewish form of Feudalism is good for them, and gladly give the fruits of their labor to the bankers.

          “Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration.”(Abraham Lincoln)

          • Sean

            Capitalism has its problems, but Marxism has also proven unreliable for the common man, woman and child. Which is why I think a third-position neither left nor right (though not the typical “centrist” either who really isn’t a centrist), a true third position.

            archive org/details/StarTrekOrIdiocracy

    • Sean

      The problem as you’ve already mentioned many times before is the jews, except even the Orthodox jews have displayed many signs of supremacist thinking; look in their Old Testament (and by extension the New Testament) and you’ll find out they were as vile then as they are now, except now they’ve learned how to conceal it much better. No one today is 100% descendant of Abraham, as pure blooded Hebrews are a thing of the past as a result of miscegenation with other peoples.

      The Hebrews, as well as the bulk of the population throughout the Middle East 2,000-3,000 years ago, most resembled the ethnic demographic of modern day Greece, Spain and Portugal. Though never proven to have existed, the personification of Abraham (originally Abram) and his sons and the rest of his alleged descendants – i.e. the jewish tribe. Its unrelenting trail throughout the ages is unprecedented, they never forget and always seek revenge for past transgressions, no matter how many years have passed since those transgressions occurred; some of these transgressions are in fact punishments for the jew’s own wrongdoing and yet because they were “chosen by god”, they are “in the right” no matter their behaviour towards non-jews.

    • Sean

      I hope that the US will always retain its territory and protect its borders, even if it does breakup into two or more countries or has its territory annexed by another, this doesn’t affect change the fact of whether or not the jewish mafia is dealt with since Russia is also controlled by that very same cabal. Sure they have phony hot and cold conflicts to distract us from the reality of the matter, however the world can never have true peace and prosperity until that jewish mafia and the vast majority of jews that support it are dealt with in one way or another. Hopefully the jewish people can be torn away from their supremacist leaders and live in harmony with the rest of mankind, but I have my doubts.

      • RichardD

        Jews are born into it, but the drop out rate is high and there’s little evangelizing. So the numbers are low. Judaism has been a problem from the beginning. It should be done away with. The Palestinians have tried to get rid of it for thousands of years. It should be outlawed worldwide and the synagogues and yeshivas closed so that it goes extinct.

  • paul ( original )

    I look forwards to Southfront’s presentation on the situation inside Russia. I hope they will be able to give at least a little hope and optimism . I do grieve for Russia. First they labour in semi feudalism under the Czar, then they are terrorized by communism and now they are robbed and exploited by oligarchs . The Russia People are a great people, but when will fate give them little kindness?

    • Loung Kodak

      In the context you describe, Who, in your opinion, have been the 3 best leaders for Russia so far?
      And wasn’t Mikhail Khodorkovsky an oligarch? And if Russia is so much in favour of the oligarchy, why Viktor Yanukovych wasn’t supported more during the coup in Ukraine?

      • paul ( original )

        You know I had never heard of Russia Oligarch before about 1990. Then suddenly London seemed to become home to many of them. They are well known for buying up English football teams and much else as well. I don’t have expert detailed knowledge ,but I don’t think it’s too much of a leap of imagination to speculate they got their wealth by extracting it from the Russian People. Even now London is supposed to see a billion each month of ‘dirty money’ flowing out of Russia through the City of London.
        I may be wrong ,and keep in mind I am just trying to understand what little information I have.That said I can not help but conclude that a lot of wealth has been diverted from Russia. I never meant to imply that tthey had absolute power but only sufficient power to do damage.

        • Loung Kodak

          I also try to understand.
          How can they have embezzled so much money from of Russia with the sanctions? It seems inconceivable. A lot is said about these so-called “Russians”, but as soons as we dig a little deeper we realize that they are Latvians, Ukrainians or Estonians (the so-called “Russian oligarch” in ibizagate case, was a woman with a Latvian passport).
          And how did the US not do anything and don’t talk about it more than that?
          I don’t denying ok, just in case, to get more relevant elements.

          • paul ( original )

            I have not much to add. I don’t think the point is that they are ‘Russians’ but that they are damaging the Russian Economy. Exactly their nationality is certainly not my point. They are called ‘ Russian Oligarchs’ as a matter of convention, so I use the term. Certainly there is a group of people who became fabulously wealthy after the fall of the USSR. I think that much is certain. Not good for the rest of the people.

          • Loung Kodak

            — “They are called ‘ Russian Oligarchs’ as a matter of convention“

            A “convention” is not “facts checked” sorry! If you don’t know, it’s better not to say things not checked in masse.
            Who established this “convention”? Our fellow Westerners or the mainstream press?
            I gave you the example of Kodorovsky that contradict your point because he was jailed as an oligarch! And now you’re basing your opinion on a paralogism. Just because there were black sheep doesn’t mean that everything is like that (and that doesn’t mean that “nothing happened” at the same time, but how much?).

            I’m sorry if I try to base my opinion solely on facts checked. In the West “tax evasion” and “tax fraud” are very common, alas (all multinationals make “tax optimisation”, what is a form of fraud in your sense)

            Cheers.

          • paul ( original )

            I give up on this.

        • pappa gone

          Good question!! Why all the governments had sanctioned almost all fiscal heavens around the world leaving the most evil of the fiscal heaven opened to all the bandits of the world?
          Why the City of London remain completely open to all the mafia, all the oligarchs, all the banksters, and whatever clintons coming from whatever governments??????
          If REALLY we want fight dirty money cityoflondon can’t remain the heaven of the heavens, and…. if many of you don’t know what really mean cityoflondon, PLEASE!!! be aware of what den of vipers lives and act criminously in that entity. This is the worst of the worse possible way to what happens all around the world!

          excuse me for little english, i’m not english mother tongue, but sufficient to understand and make understand

  • Rhodium 10

    Russia has prioritized its energy interest( Nordstream 2&Turkstream) to the detriment of the military-industrial complex goals…when they allowed Turks to enter in Idlib with the excuse of create safe zones for civilians…now Idlib is the facto another pseudo state like kurdistan areas east of Eufrates with Turkish assets and strong terrorist militia well trained and armed!…of course kurdistan zones is not a big problem for SAA because once SDF have oil fields under control..they dont have interest in land desert along west of Eufrates beside they have a border with Turkey….the problem for Syria and Al Assad will be when terrorist in Idlib have long range rockets and attacks Drones to reach Damascus!..therefore to avoid it..Russia should deploy troops along Deir Ezzor to Al Bukamal to replace Shia PMU and IRGC and also near Al Tanf and south of Syria…then more SAA troops and above all Shia militia will be available to retake at least half of Idlib and all Hama!

  • verstappen_rules

    southfront the best geopolitical site beside the Duran and strategika51… great work!