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Managing Russia’s dissolution: Truth or Desire?

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Managing Russia’s dissolution: Truth or Desire?

At the start of the year, on January 9, The Hill, a leading US political newspaper, as if setting the year’s agenda put out an article entitled “Managing Russia’s dissolution”. The article reviews the measures needed to dismantle Russia and instigate civil conflicts on the territory of Eurasia. The author, Bugajski, describes Russia as “a declining state that disguises its internal infirmities with external offensives”. He further claims that “Russia is heading toward fragmentation” under “rising social, ethnic and regional pressures” and simultaneously blamed the federal government both for failing “to develop into a nation state with a strong ethnic or civic identity” and for working to centralize control over the regions.

The article continues with speculations that “regions such as Sakha and Magadan in the far east, with their substantial mineral wealth, could be successful states without Moscow’s exploitation” and that “emerging states will benefit from forging closer economic and political contacts with neighboring countries rather than depending on Moscow”. Siberia and Russia’s far east are also named among the regions that “will become” separated from the center “thus encouraging demands for secession and sovereignty”.

“Washington needs to return to the core principles that accompanied the collapse of the Soviet Union by supporting democratization, pluralism, minority rights, genuine federalism, decentralization and regional self-determination among Russia’s disparate regions and ethnic groups.”

“Washington should promote regional and ethnic self-determination inside the Russian Federation.”

“To manage the process of dissolution and lessen the likelihood of conflict that spills over state borders, the West needs to establish links with Russia’s diverse regions and promote their peaceful transition toward statehood.”

The article openly calls on NATO and Washington to start preparations “for engaging with emerging post-Russia entities”.

“Some regions could join countries such as Finland, Ukraine, China and Japan, from whom Moscow has forcefully appropriated territories in the past. Other republics in the North Caucasus, Middle Volga, Siberia and the far east could become fully independent states and forge relations with China, Japan, the U.S. and Europe.”

Bugajski’s ideas are not new at all. Globalist think tanks have been advancing the same for decades.

Mud-slinging in order to undermine Russian statehood aims at fueling radicalism, nationalism and regionalism. It has wave-like behavior. The previous wave targeted pretty much the same regions: the North Caucasus, Middle Volga, Siberia and the Far East. The tricks and methods employed don’t change. The only difference between them is geographical location and the names of the ethnic groups to be influenced.

These approaches could be provisionally labelled the “Polish style”. This term has no links to modern Poland. We employ it only because the approaches are quite similar to the ones that were first used to fuel Polish nationalism in the 19th and 20th centuries and the same geopolitical area is affected.

The main elements of this model are:

  • Creation of a pseudo-history of a nation or ethnic group. Usually this pseudo-history is dated back to the ancient world and legendary times. This “history” is based on pseudo-historical works and research papers composed by authors unknown to the global academic community.
  • Promotion of ideas of exceptionalism among members of the nation or ethnic group. These ideas argue that the nation or ethnic group is superior to its neighbors and instigate a grotesque sense of national identity (exceptionalism based on ethnicity).
  • Creation of the myth of a historical archenemy, who has been oppressing the nation or ethnic group, often attempting to eliminate its “exceptional” culture. This historical archenemy is described as the reason for the group’s undoing and thus its poor state in the modern world. The historical archenemy can be constructed from various states existing in different periods of history but, through which a historical succession or links can be traced. For example, the Golden Horde, the  Moscow state, the Russian Empire, the USSR and the Russian Federation. The myth is actively fueled by speculation regarding historical events, which can neither be confirmed nor denied using factual data.
  • Creation and promotion of the idea of the nation as once great but now defective, where this position of greatness has been stolen from it.
  • Instigation of religious or intra-religious tensions, if the nation or ethnic group has a similar religion to that of its neighbors. The main approaches employed are:
    • Promotion and creation of religious cults, including heathen customs, which are allegedly linked to the “ancient history” of the nation or ethnic group;
    • Promotion of discords or sectarianism within the main religion of the nation. For example, for Orthodox Christianity: the Old Believers or Schismatic cults; for Islam: Sunni sects or Shia branches;
    • Instigation of religious tensions between the religion of the ethnic group and other religions of the state. For example: Islam/Christianity or Orthodox Christianity/Catholicism.
  • Promotion of myths about rich natural resources in the territory, where the ethnic group lives. Thus, if this ethnic group were to rule this area “independently”, its wealth would grow and grow. A part of this effort is propaganda against government actions concerning the use of natural resources from the territory, where this ethnic group lives. The negative impact on the ecological situation grows to nightmare proportions by the dissemination of myths about the barbaric exploitation of nature. A vivid example is the information disseminated about the alleged irreparable damage to Lake Baikal that was harmed by a plant producing bottled mineral water.
  • Instigation of territorial and intraregional economic disputes between neighboring nations or ethnic groups.
  • Discredit of everything linked with the dominating state culture, language and history. For example, bashing everything “Russian”, the creation and promotion of offensive language and terms (Russian – Vatnik), a wide spread of derogatory language and the mutilation of words, terms and names.

The previous wave of information onslaught on nations and ethnic groups of Russia was aimed at the following targets:

The Northern Caucasus. The influence was mostly aimed at the Kabardians living in the Kabardino-Balkar Republic, the Karachay-Cherkess Republic, Stavropol Krai and the Republic of Adygea. The Ossetians in the Republic of North Ossetia – Alania were also targeted. Recently the Ingushs living in the Republic of Ingushetia, Moscow and St. Petersburg were again considered as a priority goal in “the Northern Caucasus target list”.

The Southern Federal District. The main effort was to instigate nationalism, regionalism and separatism among the Cossacks, mostly in Rostov Oblast. The Cossacks are not an ethnic group. However, they are a large social group, which makes them a likely target.

The Northwestern Federal District. The goal was to instigate regional nationalism among Finno-Ugric ethnic groups. Another point of pressure was to create nationalist tendencies among the ethnic Russian population in the Republic of Karelia and Arkhangelsk Oblast in order to form a new large ethnosocial group. For example, in April, the city of Arkhangelsk experienced a series of rallies held in breach of law. This situation happened under the passive eye of regional authorities. Furthermore, the initial reaction and attitude of the regional authorities played a notable role in fueling the mood of protest. These protests, caused by a landfill site project in the nearby area, is being actively exploited by the so-called non-system opposition and “liberal media” to fuel tensions between various groups in the local population as well as the regional government.

Separate efforts were made to influence the population of Saint Petersburg, which in terms of culture is one of the most westernized cities of Russia along with Kaliningrad. There was also an attempt to instigate local separatism using the concept of Ingermanland.

The Volga region. Ethnic nationalism and religious radicalism were stirred up among the Kalmyks, Bashkirs and Tatars. Small ethnic groups and nations, often described as Russians: the Mokshas and Erzyas also became the target of foreign influence. Among small ethnic groups and nations, local nationalism can take ugly forms.

Western Siberia. The goal was to create a separate ethnic-social group describing itself as the citizens of Siberia and separating itself from the rest of Russian citizens. The main targets were the Altai Republic, Novosibirsk Oblast and the city of Novosibirsk (the capital of the Siberian Federal District). Foreign influence achieved notable successes in these areas.

Eastern Siberia. The campaign in this region was aimed mostly at Buryats and Tuvans. Yakuts were also a target.

The Far East. Local regionalism and separatism were actively fueled in Khabarovsk Krai and Primorsky Krai, especially in the cities of Khabarovsk and Vladivostok. Besides this, foreign influence is actively exploiting simultaneously both pro-Chinese intentions and the myth of the Chinese threat.

It should be noted that the article “Managing Russia’s dissolution” published by The Hill points to these same regions for further operations designed to dismantle Russia. These operations will be more dangerous than the previous ones because they will exploit the successes already achieved in some fields. For example:

  • The nationalism and religion issues in the North Caucasus;
  • the nationalism of ethnic groups in the Volga region – Bashkirs, Tatars, Erzyas, Moshkas;
  • the nationalism and regionalism of Buryats in eastern Siberia.
  • the creation of a new separate pro-western identity by a good part of the people living in the cities of Saint Petersburg and Kaliningrad, which distances them from the rest of Russia;
  • the creation of a separate ethnic-social identity in Western Siberia:

The regions have been targeted by multiple campaigns undermining and discrediting nationwide traditions and behaviors, such as  the traditional family holidays at the New Year, social events of Soviet or Old Russian origin as well as the common history of Russia.  Individualism, neoliberal attitudes and values are successfully promoted in Saint Petersburg, Kaliningrad and Western Siberia. Education is simplified and westernized. Meanwhile stakeholders describe these same tendencies to the residents of the North Caucasus, southern Russian and other regions as ugly and hostile examples of ultra-hardline or far right ideology. Local regionalism and ideological tensions are being successfully fueled.

In large, this situation has become possible due to the de-facto inaction of or even unofficial ideological protection from the authorities. If one takes a detailed look at the Russian elite, one will find that a significant part of it consists of westernized adherents of the “liberal democratic order” while another part consists of representatives of national family clans. Many of these individuals do not associate themselves with the common population and consider the territory of Russia only as a source which can increase their personal wealth. The term “new aristocracy”, which has recently  spread in Russian media, initially appeared as a proud self-designation among Russian elite families emphasizing the exceptionality of their members.

Nonetheless, supporters of Bugajski’s ideas do not consider the aforementioned tendencies alone as sufficient to dismantle Russian statehood. While on the regional level they have achieved some results, the identified nationwide goals have not been accomplished. The system of Russia has not yet come close to an imbalance, that is, to the condition where destructive trends are already beginning to grow on their own, without additional artificial influence. The negative tendencies so far set in motion could still be stopped and reversed. In this situation, we can expect a new wave of the information onslaught against Russia, traditionally backed by Western funds.

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  • Vince Dhimos

    What a crock! “Respecting minority rights”? Look at how shabbily Trump treats Ilhan Omar and other US Muslims who dare to challenge US hegemony. Compare this with the way Putin respects his Muslim population. As for the mineral wealth that Russia controls in the far east, imagine the Siberian communites in question were “liberated” as Unkraine was by the US meddlers in the Maidan. Ukraine was cooperating successfully with Russia, which built factories there to give people work. It was fairly prosperous and trending to Western European levels. Then US puppet Poroshenko tore up all the old economic agreements with Russia, even refused to buy cheap gas from Russia, preferring to buy it second hand from other countries at extravagant prices — the very same gas but at higher prices so that Poroshenko could flash his anti-Russian credentials to the US. The result? The IMF now lists Ukraine as the poorest country in Europe. And they attribute this NOT to Russia but to corruption.

    • Jens Holm

      You need more then glasses. It seemes very much ignored, that many in USA dont agree with Trump as well.

      • Olie H

        And you need brain.

  • Daniel Miller

    This guys is a moron

  • peter mcloughlin

    Russia almost faced dissolution in 1991, to the apprehension of many. That direction of events was reversed, but there is still anxiety that Western intentions are to disassemble what is now the Russian Federation. Dissolution can be seen as annihilation. And annihilation is the fall-back position of nuclear deterrence doctrine. When there is an existential threat there will be nuclear war. Blindly, humanity is moving closer and closer.
    https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/

    • paul ( original )

      You make a very good point. In the one recent example we have the USSR did not use any of its military might to protect itself. I do not know if the current Russia leadership see this as an historical parallel and take any lesson from it or not.

      • Harry Smith

        USSR is not a country, but the name of the occupation Bolshevik regime. The state always was Russia.

        As for the USSR fall it is necessary to understand that no one Marxist regime can exist without the external financial sources due to it’s high inefficiency. When Gorbachev opened up the iron curtain, USA analysts understood that USSR is highly dependent on oil exports and the cost of oil extraction is about 12 usd per barrel, as far as I remember. So they made Saudis to drop oil prices to 8 usd and socialistic dream instantly evaporated.

        USA wanted to repeat the trick after 2008 by inflating the fraking, but capitalism is much more sustainable than socialism, so USA couldn’t make it this time.

        • Nosferatu

          You are dead wrong. I was born and lived a socialist state and if i compare it to the present times, the socialists times were better in every way except a slight technological lacking behind in domestic equipement. Planed economy and wise use of resources instead of focusing on profit only was working well and was sustainable, unlike capitalist economy based on never ending growth and profit doctrines that conflicts with limited amount of resources on the planet. Socialism had to be destroyed by the global oligarchy and financial elite because it could defeat capitalism and fullfil its declared goal of a just society. Unfortunately global bankers managed to infiltrate soviet leadership and make them betray the idea of a better world.

          • Harry Smith

            Is the state you were born still socialist? If not, I am definitely right.

          • Nosferatu

            Which part of ”
            if i compare it to the present times, the socialists times were better
            in every way except a slight technological lacking behind in domestic
            equipement”did you not understand? And a well organized coup that brought capitalism and povetry to our country does not change anything.

          • Harry Smith

            OK, let’s try it in a hard way. Have all weekend and long holidays next week so let’s do this, dude.
            The first question is: how a coup d’etat can occur in a country where majority of the population is happy?

          • Nosferatu

            it seems you dont know how coups work. For example there was a poll done about public opinion regarding the changes in society. 50% wanted to staz in socialism, 48% wanted to reform socialism and 2% of people wanted to move to capitalism. The coup went anyway. Many regret. if they new they would not attempt the protests. But there are other than democratic powers behind the coups. Remeber they are regime changes with no elections. People are easily manipulated into a trap, especialy if its about the the interests of global oligarchy that is behind all coups.

          • Harry Smith

            So 48+2%, literally a half of population, were NOT happy with socialism? Look like your socialism was not so good as you described it.

          • Nosferatu

            Are you having problems with understansing written text? Only 2% of people wanted to move to capitalism and 98% wanted to stay in socialism.

          • Harry Smith

            OK, if 98% wanted to stay in socialism, why they did not defend it against capitalism, like Mao, i.e.

          • Nosferatu

            Most were fooled, some tried to defend socialism, many were just shocked how quickly everything changed. Now after 30 years of capitalism (and the appearance of powerty, drugs, criminality, homelessness and general degradation of society in all areas) we can say socialism was better. And bear in mind that i am saying this because of personal experience with both systems (unlike you, who only heard about socialism from capitalist propaganda)

          • Harry Smith

            If they were fooled, at that time, about capitalism, so, evident, they are fooled now about socialism.

            PS: I am Russian, born in USSR and living in Russia now. So, I do remember very good 1991, when nobody, underline, NOBODY tried to protect SCSE (ГКЧП).

  • paul ( original )

    I have often felt that Russia is far too tolerant of medalling in its domestic affairs. I don’t know why any foreign organisation is permitted to operate in Russia. I certainly don’t know why foreign finance is permitted to flow to those who would damage Russia. A bit more iron fist would seem in order.

    • Jens Holm

      I agree with You, its only waste to invest as much as a danish kroner in Russia of today and after 1991. They grow corn and will not starve.

      The rest is up to them and someone like You. Oligarcs will be eliminated by there is nothing more to steal in Russia as well.

  • Ilya

    Yeah, divide and conquer. We’ve all played the game. As if any region of any part of the world believes that going it alone when a genocidal ape with a club is romping around the landscape is a good idea.

  • purplelibraryguy

    “The author, Bugajski, describes Russia as “a declining state that
    disguises its internal infirmities with external offensives”. He further
    claims that “Russia is heading toward fragmentation” under “rising
    social, ethnic and regional pressures””
    I see the problem here. The guy somehow mistakenly swapped in the word “Russia” where it originally said “The United States”.

    • Jens Holm

      You are partly right only. All contries as well as Regions need reforms.

      But USA are from a much higher level, so their possibilities for improvements are or should be much better.

      You hardly ever see the Russian more and more poor parts. They even has declined their pension.

      I see no growing GDP for Russia as well as we now see China use a lot of mascara hiding their growth is much lower, then they and others predict.

      USA also will be helped by the Western economics having China as affiliated. Who will help Russia. They will just be left alone having their own problems solving them as such.

      Let me add, that I do see USA has big problems and there was good reasons for they elected him as a kind of protest.

      The other possibility was Hillary. Here they could get good systems which they disliked very much.

  • purplelibraryguy

    More seriously, I notice something about the basic nature of the mythology promotion thing: This kind of created national mythology of national superiority combined with invocation of some arch-enemy which frustrates that superiority, is most commonly seen in and tends to be deeply intertwined with the propaganda and appeal of fascism. So it should be no surprise that places where this playbook is used (like Ukraine) end up with lots of fascists and neo-Nazis, or that the people pushing this kind of thing make use of fascist groups to spread the ideas.

  • El Mashi

    This is the playbook of Zionism.

    • Albert Pike

      To get to the ‘novus ordo seclorum’ -unlucky we are- everything what is now, has be laid into ruins. And yes the internationalisation of the Russian elite was the first step. Why Putin allowed, or curbed it so late – only Putin knows…

    • Jens Holm

      Everything You dont understand is. And thats a lot.

  • El Mashi

    This can apply to any country even the United States. The Latino/Hispanics collectively are the eight largest economy in the world. The US Southwest from Texas to California has historical Spanish connections including the United States conquest of the Northern half of Mexico. The United States South has historical connections with Africa. New York also has historical connections to Israel. Alaska has historical connections with Russia. Again, the United States plays with fire when igniting nationalist passions.

    • Jens Holm

      Very bad descriebtion. USA added from the first 13 states from being nothing.

      USA are STATES in a big one. Mexiacans also are not ancient indians but most parts actially are from Spain and other countries as a colony.

      fx https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Texas

      You also ignore others expanded or declined in the same period. Japan did, GB did, France did.

      The world also wa speoplke fleeing from something. Thats why they went to the colonies to bee free. You forget those which arrived and why.

  • verner

    it all comes down to commodities and commodities and commodities, which Russia has the more of than any other country, moronistan (aka usa – home of the neo-nazi morons, fatso, bolton abrams and donny the dunce) in particular. and the morons have not forgotten that Putin put paid to the fully blown scam moronistan engaged in in the early 1990s to secure ownership of any and all important commodity assets in russia that came up for sale, think jeltsin. and as is well known, moronistan never forgets and never forgives.
    think norht korea, think iran, think libya, think iraq and so on.

  • JustPassingThrough

    “Janusz Bugajski (born September 23, 1954, in Nantwich, Cheshire) is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington DC and host of “Bugajski Hour” and “Bugajski Time,” television shows broadcast in the Balkans. He is the former Director of New European Democracy Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

    He has served as a consultant on East European affairs for various U.S. organizations and government agencies as for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the United States Department of Defense, the International Republican Institute (IRI), the Free Trade Union Institute (AFL-CIO), the International Research and Exchanges Board (IREX), and BBC television in London.

    He testifies regularly before the U.S. Congress. He chairs the South-Central Europe area studies program at the Foreign Service Institute of the U.S. Department of State.” -wikipedia

    >>Another Polish wetdream.

    • Jens Holm

      Fine I like putting in about the authors now and then. We get nobodies and he at least is a somebody.

      • JustPassingThrough

        we are all somebody but he is a nobody too boot. :-)
        the point is that he brings the murikan point-of-view with a polish accent, a true vassal from a country of vassals.

  • Ivan

    Tatar identity was never suppressed in Russia. Quite the contrary – it has been created. There are zero tatars in Russia. All so called “tatars” in Russia are Bulgarians. And this is what the so called “tatars” claim.

  • gustavo

    Russia is an ascending country, not a descending country. Yes, USA-Israel-NATO is planning to destroy Russia, after destroying Iran, but dear friends, your are all wrong ! Russia is and will be increasing its power.

  • JPH

    Excellent job exposing this semi covert information warfare against Russia. Also justifies Russia’s increasing intolerance against those western funded ‘NGOs’ and expulsion of subversive US ‘diplomats’.

  • Nassim7

    The UK is breaking up. The USA is already split into two parts that cannot have a peaceful dialogue. Yet these two states continue the politicies of the 19th century of the English Elites and their Elite Jews.

    Suggested reading:

    https://www.amazon.com/Hidden-History-Secret-Origins-First/dp/1780576307