Libyan War, Syrian War And Qatar Crisis

Donate

Loading the player...

Written and produced by SF Team: J.Hawk, Daniel Deiss, Edwin Watson; Voiceover by Oleg Maslov

If you’re able, and if you like our content and approach, please support the project. Our work wouldn’t be possible without your help: PayPal: southfront@list.ru or via: http://southfront.org/donate/ or via: https://www.patreon.com/southfront

The war in Libya was caused not so much by any internal dissent but rather by the West’s need for continued economic expansion, which Western elites view as part and parcel of the post-Cold War “end of history”, a still-potent messianic ideology which gives the West the license to attack anyone, anywhere, to achieve its mercantilist objectives, and which gives the necessary humanitarian “fig leaf” for the benefit of the politically correct faction of Western societies.

Naturally, politically correct Westerners have been unbothered by the “humanitarian interventions” invariably making the situation far worse, and Libya has not been an exception. Since the fall of the regime of Muammar al-Gaddafi, Libya has not experienced any political, financial or even social stability, as the country is witnessing a state of constant fighting between all parties despite the absence of any religious or sectarian differences between the populations. Libya turned from one of the richest countries in the world to a failed state.

The current war in Libya began in 2014, with most of the fighting being between the internationally-recognized Tobruk-based Libyan Interim Government centered on the House of Representatives that was elected democratically in 2014, an Islamist National Salvation Government founded by the General National Congress based in Tripoli city, and the UN-backed Government of National Accord also based in Tripoli.

The Libyan Interim Government has the allegiance of the Libyan National Army under the leadership of General Khalifa Haftar and enjoys the support of Egypt and the United Arab Emirates directly, with indirect support from both the United States, Britain and Russia, with the latter country’s affinity to Haftar clearly demonstrated when the Libyan general boarded the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier in January 2017, as the ship was returning home from its combat mission off the coast of Syria. It is a secular entity and has the sole legitimate power in Libya. Since 2014, Egypt has supplied many light and heavy weapons to the Libyan National Army led by Khalifa Haftar, which included several MiG-21 fighters. The United Arab Emirates also provides financial support to Haftar and has a small airbase in eastern Libya, including AT-802 turboprop light attack aircraft and WingLoong UAVs which appear to be operated by Erik Prince’s Academi (formerly Blackwater) Private Military Company.

The emergence of the Libyan Interim Government was made possible by the withdrawal of House of Representatives support for the Government of National Accord, whose power has since greatly decreased.

Instead, the chief opponent of the LIG is the Islamic government of the General National Congress, also called the Salvation Government,  which is led by the Muslim Brotherhood with support from a coalition of Islamic groups known as the Dawn of Libya. It is believed that one of the combat groups of the General National Congress was involved in the assassination of US Ambassador Christopher Stevens in 2012. The Muslim Brotherhood are also accused of providing political cover to ISIS during its expansion in Libya before 2014, which is a plausible accusation considering Qatar’s tangible support to both ISIS and the Muslim Brotherhood.

It too enjoys international support by Qatar, Turkey, and Sudan, with the former two countries playing roles identical to they played in the Syrian conflict.  Qatar’s considerable contribution includes financial support to the General National Congress and smuggling arms using C-130 military cargo planes in cooperation with Sudan, while Turkey has smuggled arms to the Dawn of Libya using ships. Turkey also benefits from illegal oil trade with the militia, according to unconfirmed reports.

Since 2014, ISIS has had strong influence in much of Libya, especially in Darnah east of Banghazi, but this influence of the terrorist organization has shrunk over time. However, Libya is one of the bases of recruitment and money laundering for ISIS, where ISIS is believed to have received indirect support from Turkey, Qatar and the General National Congress. Moreover, ISIS views Libya as an operating base from which to stage expansion into countries of the Sahel and to aid ISIS cells operating in Tunisia and Egypt.

Completing the list of warring parties, Tuareg forces control southwestern Libya, including Amazigh and Ghat area, and are considered indirect allies of the General National Congress.

Given the balance of forces outlined above, the conflict in Libya would have come to a close years ago had it not been for the direct involvement of the Qatar-Turkey alliance, whose aggressive acts against Syria had likewise escalated that conflict. To be sure, the Qatar-Turkey alliance was one of convenience, with the two parties pursuing different objectives which simply happened to be not mutually exclusive.

For Turkey, the aim of the game at the time was neo-Ottomanism. Both Syria and Libya are, after all, parts of the former Ottoman Empire, with the former being wrested from its grasp by the French and the British at the end of World War I, and the former falling to Italy in Italo-Turkish War of 1911-1912. For Qatar, the objective was establishing oneself as a regional power player not only independent of Saudi Arabia but also equivalent to it, a task that would have been greatly facilitated by establishing Qatar-friendly regimes in Libya and Syria, extending Qatar’s control over the region’s hydrocarbons, and gaining access to new markets in Europe. That final point of the Turkey-Qatar strategy was welcome by European factions favoring continued eastward expansion because the Qatari gas pipeline could be used as a political weapon against Russia.

However, that coalition proved too weak to overcome the resistance of legitimate government forces in Libya and Syria, particularly after the direct Russian military involvement in Syria spelled the end of the “Assad must go” campaign, and it never managed to secure the support of the United States for either of its objectives. The US, for its part, attempted to sponsor its own jihadists in Syria or favored the Saudi-led efforts. Therefore it was only a matter of time before either Turkey or Qatar realized its strategy was doomed and sought to pursue a different course of action. Turkey proved the weaker link in that coalition thanks to, ironically, US enlistment of the Kurds as its proxy army in Syria. Faced with an impossible to dislodge Russian presence in Syria, Turkey opted to change its aims to become an “energy gateway” to Europe by joining forces with Russia in the form of the Turkish Stream pipeline.

Worse, while initially the West was generally in favor of any and all forms of “Arab Spring”, including the Turkish-Qatari efforts in both Syria and Libya, by 2016 it was becoming clear the downsides were outweighing the positives. The refugee crisis, in particular, that became a potent political issue threatening the unchallenged liberal status quo had forced a re-evaluation of the policy, lest the likes of Front National or AfD come to power in Europe. Even the US, which did not receive a flood of Middle East refugees, was affected.  On April 11, 2016, Obama was forced to admit that Libya was the “worst mistake” he had committed during his presidency as the mistake was that the United States did not plan for the post-Gaddafi era. He was not doing it because of any sorrow for the citizens of countries he despoiled, but rather because the resulting chaos was now negatively affecting Hillary Clinton’s chances to win.

But it was Donald Trump who delivered what surely will be a fatal blow to Qatar’s international ambitions, first by giving a green light to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states to pounce on Qatar, and then directly accusing it of sponsoring terrorists. The ensuing blockade of Qatar meant that the country’s leaders would have little time or money to continue financing militants in Libya or Syria. Indeed, shortly after the Qatar blockade was imposed, the Russian military stated the war in Syria, other than the fighting against ISIS, had practically ground to a standstill.

Considering that Turkey and Qatar have been the main obstacles to ending the war in Libya, Turkey’s defection followed by the US-authorized Saudi political and economic assault on Qatar have implications not only for Syria but also for Libya. Indeed, there are already many signs the political situation in Libya is evolving. Arguably the biggest development in recent months was the release of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, Muammar Gaddafi’s son, by a Tobruk-based militia upon a request from the House of Representatives. With Saif al-Islam Gaddafi being wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged atrocities committed by the Libyan government during the 2011 war, the fact of his release indicates the political fortunes are now favoring the House of Representatives and Marshal Haftar, a shift also suggested by British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson’s statements in support of Haftar playing  an important role in Libyan politics and the new French President Macron’s admission the war in Libya was a major mistake.

But here the Western officials seem to be following the trends rather than making them, as the root cause of the shift appears to be the sudden weakening of Qatar’s positions in the region. Egypt is a clear beneficiary of that weakening and is intent on pressing its advantage, to the point of pro-Sisi Egyptian media actually advocating bombing of Qatar. The Qatari disarray is also made apparent by LNA’s recent announcement that the Qatari opposition has provided the LNA with a list of Libyan citizens who worked for Qatar’s intelligence services.

Qatar’s situation is not an enviable one. For the time being Turkey’s military support and the US unwillingness to allow Saudi Arabia to utterly devastate Qatar are enough to allow it to maintain a brave face. But in the longer term it needs to find an accommodation with at least one of the key power players in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, US, or…Russia. The fact of growing Turkey-Russia cooperation on a variety of issues and Qatar’s outreach to Russia in the form of a foreign minister visit and the simplification of visa rules for Russian citizens, suggests that Qatar is at least contemplating realigning its alliance membership. However, considering that all of the three above-named powers are on the opposite side of the barricades as far as Libya is concerned, it seems unlikely Qatar can maintain its proxy war there even with Turkey’s support. Therefore, almost no matter what Qatar decides to do next, it will have no choice but to write off Libya as a total loss, an act that will hasten the end of this tragic six-year war.

Donate

SouthFront

Do you like this content? Consider helping us!

  • Kell

    Wow brilliant report!

  • Maxxi Comm

    Excellent and deep analysis.

    • Fernwrowan

      Managing director of Google says we are paying $97 per hour! Work for few hours and have longer with friends & family^hi78d:
      On tuesday I got a great new Toyota Tundra from having earned $8752 this last four weeks.. Its the most-financialy rewarding I’ve had.. It sounds unbelievable but you wont forgive yourself if you don’t check it…Then visit following link for more info
      ~xd78:
      ➽➽
      ➽➽;➽➽ http://GoogleFinancialJobsCash368MediaCool/GetPay$97/Hour ★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★:::::~xd78o…..

  • Rodney Loder

    Speaking of mistakes that little creep in England Tuberculosis Blair is realizing as did the defendants at Nuremberg 1945 aggression is a criminal act, but more importantly Libya is like Central African Republic, sure we could have a war there, but what is the point, if jew boy Salman becomes the Commander of the ME. then Haftar will be his footstool and with al-Saud remaining the underwear of US politics it’s hard to know why anyone would want that.
    Also there is Afghanistan that the article didn’t mention, is Shi’ite really the enemy of Islam ?, if Russian Christians side with the US they most certainly are.
    I am the Prophet here Libya Dawn is my choice.

    • 888mladen .

      Though self stiled one testifying of himself.

      • Rodney Loder

        A Prophet can’t style himself, Allah tells us what to do, and also Fate, who really is dominant so Allah can remain impartial thus protecting his ability to appreciate watching what we become, God actually takes on a bit of what we achieved as Civilized, but I can prove what I say and bring peace to the ME, whether Allah Chooses to signature our destiny or not, but the Jews and Christians are holding me psychiatric incarceration all because I claimed Allah to be God while practicing Dialectical Materialism.

        • 888mladen .

          By all symptoms shown you appear to be mentally disturbed pretender what would qualify in Biblical term as a false prophet. You seem to be on “Divine” mission and no amount of common sense would turn you away from it. I give up on you in hope that God has done yet with you.

          • Rodney Loder

            Year right, your decision sounds like the one that my Comrades made back in 1969, it was a bad choice for them and Christianity, Destiny is assured if my Salafist Brothers make the sender choice as you I’ll gladly live with it, it’s a Universal Destiny that in the primary purpose nor my mission, people can choose damnation in this life and the next and their very welcome to it, but personally I’m sitting pretty I can call out and be ignored but not by Muslims, my address in on Quora Terry Loder .

          • 888mladen .

            Thank you for strengthening my conviction about your state of mind.

          • Rodney Loder

            We do the best with what we have for ourselves, the advantage is not necessarily reflected by our state of mind, but that is what others perceive in terms of leadership, if I was interested in leadership I wouldn’t be a practicing Muslim Hermit full on 100% since Israel invaded Lebanon 06, Divinity always came to me, I am the Medium between man and God, my Chosen Salafist Brothers will never betray me for a pittance because I will probably never know them, this is extraterrestrial not a mortal gesture. Oh year by the way, jews and Christians used my intellectual property to create israel, climate change, to bring on Malthusianism, and to destroy the Soviet Union, I always opposed everything to do with the above, avoiding recriminations for jew Christian criminality is my personal ambition, other than that I live in paradise already.

  • 888mladen .

    How many shares in Rosneft has RU sold to Qatari sovereign wealth fund?
    https://www.rt.com/business/369554-rosneft-biggest-privatization-deal/

    • More

      888mladen
      Putin and his team are looting Russia dry with approx 50/50 corruption though not as bad as before when it was 80/20.

      Qatar has paid very little money for the 20% stake bought jointly with Glencore, most of the US$11 Billion been financed by Russian Banks.

      Glencore and Qatar contributed only Euro 300 Million to the deal, less than 3 percent of the purchase price, which it said in a statement on Dec. 10 had bought it an “indirect equity interest” limited to just 0.54 percent of Rosneft.

      How Russia sold its oil jewel: without saying who bought it
      http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-rosneft-privatisation-insight-idUSKBN1582OH

      More than a month after Russia announced one of its biggest privatizations since the 1990s, selling a 19.5 percent stake in its giant oil company Rosneft, it still isn’t possible to determine from public records the full identities of those who bought it.

      The stake was sold for 10.2 billion euros to a Singapore investment vehicle that Rosneft said was a 50/50 joint venture between Qatar and the Swiss oil trading firm Glencore.

  • Nigel Maund

    Very good video and potted summary of the evolving political situation in respect of Qatar and Libya. The Russians made one immense blunder in Syria. When they went in they did not go in hard and fast enough. This allowed the US to evolve a new strategy in the face of Plan A being destroyed by combined Syrian, Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah success; i.e., set up Military Bases and carve out an area of Syria for thier new proxy in the shape of the Syrian Liberation Army. They’re now looking to establish a “No Fly Zone” over their proxy’s territory, however, Syria and Russia will almost certainly not allow this to happen. The big question then is this – what happens next?

    • More

      Nigel Maund
      “…The big question then is this – what happens next?…”

      Putin’s only interest in Syria is to prevent the build of the Saudi pipeline through Syria and the Iran, Iraq, Syria pipeline.

      Thus Putin will continue as before:
      Do Nothing
      Do the Minimum
      Do it very Slowly
      Wait and See

      Since Jan 2017 after the Tillerson Putin meeting, Russian help for Syria has been reduced to the minimum.

      This is the bottom-line:
      Russia is bleeding Iran dry of US$s for the Military equipment supplied to Syria.
      :
      The US has established a 55 km No Go Zone around Al Tanf.
      The US has established a No Go Zone around Raqqa
      There will be more US No Go Zones that will be established in Syria.

      Israel freely attacks Syrian military in Damascus, Palmyra, etc.
      Syria Shayrat airbase attacked by US Missiles
      Syrian Air Force jet is shot down near Raqqa
      Syrian military Al Tanf convoys x 3 are wiped out.
      US led “Terror Axis” embedded and loose all over Syria.

      Meanwhile the Syrian Military (includes all its allies) has done well but it is fighting the same battles over and over:

      Homs v1 2014, Homs v2 2017, Palmyra v1 2015, Palmyra v2 2017, Al Tanf v1, Al Tanf v2, etc etc.

      There have been reports recently of an area of Aleppo that has been overrun by IS, Reports of IS still embedded in Hama with reports of different IS groups infighting

      Over 50% of Syria remain to be retaken:
      Deraa
      Al Tanf
      Deir Ez Zor
      Raqqa
      Idlib
      etc

  • alejoeisabel

    Syria must return to being multi cultural and multi confessional state.

  • Scott Miller

    This is escellent. I hope South Front does a similar one dealing with the Philippines.

    • Michelledphillips

      Managing director of Google says we are paying $97 per hour! Work for few hours and have longer with friends & family^ho66:
      On tuesday I got a great new Ford F-150 from having earned $8752 this last four weeks.. Its the most-financialy rewarding I’ve had.. It sounds unbelievable but you wont forgive yourself if you don’t check it ,,,,Then check this out
      ~xf66:
      ➽➽
      ➽➽;➽➽ http://GoogleFinancialJobsCash356HomePaper/GetPay$97/Hour ★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★:::::~xf66o…….

  • atminds

    Is the same for every nation, weapons! however who knows, global wars could evolve, a global event can change the global perception. a global party for instance. a one-day global Holiday. one of this nasty volcano’s? weapons have become obsolete by themselves. a one-day global orgy; for instance. any global event is immediately a Resonance. Time and space shrink the spatial mental image of space-time, compressed on a larger form; open-handed a new dimension of space & time. The very small is now as large as the space and it takes very little time. A weapon as a phone call. The global interconnection creates new world connected as it compacts, recreates a larger world of a dissimilar form. As weapons become obsolete power changes its nature, becoming more in tune with the wind than the obsolete weapon. The upside-down logic of weapons inverts itself into a non-weapons society. The telephone transforms itself as the demiurge.

  • atminds

    Militarily the saudi and the USA will lose, Yemen transforms itself instantly and the Saudis will face a force from both sides. Iran can intervene later as Israel will, however Egypt is behind Israel the other flank. Israel is trap same as the Saudi kingdom. North Korea will be on a better position and the us navy faces the same predicament as the pacific is encircle. NATO changes sides and the balance is found.

  • Phillip Kokesh

    sometimes the pace seems glacial, but it appears the world’s powers do desire peace, with mutually beneficial social, rather than war-based economies as in the US. Cryptos undermining the international banking system is no insignificant player, either; in the future, because of blockchain systems, every penny going to government WILL be accounted for… i love it when a plan comes together..! 😎

  • CyricRenner

    Qatar has been punching about its weight for sometime now, making a lot of enemies. It was only a matter of time before they are experienced blow back. Their leaders should have been content to play with their billions and stay out of the affairs of others. The US has a huge base in Qatar. Its more or less little more then a permanent aircraft carrier for them. I don’t think they care much who rules Qatar, but if they see an opportunity to spread chaos, they most certainly will do so. Certainly, the Saudis and Egyptians would need a green light from the US before undertaking any military action.