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Lessons Learned From Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

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Lessons Learned From Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

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Prepared by Thurisaz Solutions exclusively for SouthFront

On November 10th, 2020 the Republic of Armenia signed a ceasefire with Azerbaijan, agreeing to hand over nearly a fifth of the territory within its sphere of influence prior to the signing. While maintaining the Lachin corridor, as well as a passageway to Stepanakart, the former capital of the self proclaimed Artsakh Republic; the Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, was forced to accept a peace agreement returning all surrounding territories to Azeribaijani control, as well as permitting Russian Peacekeepers to set up observation posts throughout the Lachin corridor and the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Leading up to this historic agreement was a bloody, and largely one-sided conflict in which Azerbaijan proved once and for all that a new generation of warfare has arrived.

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh as well as the surrounding territories have been fiercely contested between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Initially the undisputed territory of Azerbaijan, the regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh have been under the de-facto control of the Artsakh Republic, an autonomous region within the Armenian sphere of influence, since the brutal First Nagorno-Karabakh War ended in 1994. During this war more than 700,000 Azerbaijani civilians were displaced from the region, causing enormous friction in the years following the OSCE brokered ceasefire, as they were not permitted to return to their homes after the territorial handover took place.

While the territory surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh has remained de-jure Azerbaijani, internationally recognized to be so, the negotiations regarding their return remained fruitless for the 26 years they had been underway. Baku, growing increasingly dissatisfied with this lack of progress, began to consider military options during the mid-2010s. Border skirmishes became a common occurrence, with hundreds of Azerbaijani and Armenian troops being killed and wounded in the years before the 2020 conflict.

In 2016, a large scale flare-up in the fighting brought tensions to a fever-pitch, with more than 100 combatants being killed. This also served as confirmation for the Azeri military that they were truly a match for Armenia. While undesirably large casualties were suffered, the advance had been extremely rapid; in some cases with Armenian positions being overrun in a matter of hours from the beginning of operations. Taking note of these results, Azerbaijan’s government began to remedy them in the form of further military modernization and expansion.

Large deals between Israel and Turkey provided Baku with loitering munitions such as the IAI Harop, developed by Israel, and the Bayraktar 2 reconnaissance drone, built by Turkey. The Azerbaijani military also began a general restructuring of their tactics, aiming for a truly multi domain capability rather than the two-dimensional operational thinking common amongst second-rate powers. In order to make this happen, Baku increased their defense budget by more than 60% between 2016 and 2020.

Following further skirmishes in 2017 and 2018, the gloves finally came off on September 27th, 2020. Initial skirmishes along the line of contact led to the declaration of martial law in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the beginning stages of mobilization by the Armenian Military. The following day, Azerbaijan began its own mobilization efforts. Much to the consternation of the United Nations and the International Community at large, Azerbaijan did not relent and continued it’s offensive actions past the first skirmishes. Following initial moderately successful counterattacks by Armenia in an effort to retake lost positions, the lines became relatively static for the following days despite intense clashes between the two forces.

As early as the beginning of October, the Armenian lines began to crack. Intense usage of long range artillery with observation drones in a forward observer role started to take their effect on Armenian manpower and morale. Azerbaijani forces were able to advance in both the Northern and Southern sectors of fighting throughout the beginning of the month; and following incremental Azerbaijani advances, on October 10th Russia brokered an initial Ceasefire between the two sides. However, within a matter of hours this ceasefire fell apart and hostilities resumed across the entire front.

Lessons Learned From Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

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Throughout mid-October the advantage shifted further and further towards Azerbaijan. The Republic of Artsakh began losing more and more territory, and the Armenian aligned military forces continued losing more and more men and equipment. It was at this point where Azerbaijan began exerting more operational dominance on the battlefield. By October 19th, Azerbaijani forces had occupied a significant portion of southern Artsakh, and were successfully holding their gains in the north as well. Hundreds, if not thousands of Armenians had been killed by this point, and hundreds of trucks, tanks, and other pieces of military equipment had been destroyed by Azerbaijani drones and artillery.

Following yet another unsuccessful Russia brokered ceasefire, Azerbaijani offensives resumed in the South. Armenian and Artsakh forces were forced into a total retreat, being continuously targeted by unseen drones, loitering munitions, and shelling. At this point the air defenses within Nagorno-Karabakh had been utterly dismantled by effective Azerbaijani use of air assets, such as the IAI Harop that Baku had previously acquired. A notable image encapsulates the conflict by showing the moment before a Harop impacts into an S-300PS Transporter Erector Launcher.

By the beginning of November, the entire Artsakh-Iranian border had been occupied by Azerbaijani forces, and the Armenian aligned forces were on a distinct strategic backfoot. With morale at an all time high for Azerbaijan, their forces pivoted to the Northwest to begin an offensive targeting Stepanakart, the capital of The Republic of Artsakh. Within a matter of days, large scale breakthroughs had been made, as the shattered remnants of the Armenian aligned forces hastily attempted to halt the Azerbaijani advance. However, the Armenian forces were no longer capable of any significant impact on the battlefield, and the Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, was forced to the negotiating table after the fall of Shusha, the second largest city in Nagorno Karabakh, and the last stronghold before Stepanakart.

This war is essential to take lessons from due to a number of key properties it displayed. The usage of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs) is impossible for any nation not to take note of. Unlike in prior conflicts, aerial capabilities are no longer exclusive to large powers, and can be employed to enormous effect by any military regardless of size or funding. There is no longer an ability to fight a nation state without considering the aerial dimension of the conflict, and air defense capabilities must be high up on the priority list of any military planner. Had the Armenian air defenses been competent and extensive, the war may have turned out significantly differently.

The employment of standoff loitering munitions also holds with it enormous consequences for future conflicts. Relatively inexpensive precision guided munitions are proliferating massively, and as a result any concentrated military formation or emplacement is vulnerable from the air. While in the past it may have sufficed to entrench military hardware to protect it, modern warfare now dictates that such two-dimensional thinking is a recipe for disaster. Even small, lightly funded militaries are now capable of precision standoff strikes without putting their forces at risk.

The most important effect of these two new factors is that wars are likely to be more relegated to standoff engagements, rather than troop-on-troop kinetic fights. If it is possible to dismantle a military without ever putting a soldier in harm’s way, a commander will undoubtedly choose that option. It is likely there will be a shift from typical “troop” movements towards an initial battle for aerial dominance, and an attempt to attrit enemy air defenses and destroy enemy formations as quickly as possible with cheap standoff munitions, followed by what is most aptly characterized as “mopping up” by ground formations.

Lessons Learned From Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

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While ground formations are by no means useless, their role has undergone a total change. In a conventional conflict, they no longer are most effective in their offensive capability and ability to destroy the enemy, but rather are now most useful solely to hold off an enemy ground force from being able to deny the use of a military’s aerial assets, and to secure territory following the dismantling of a nation’s military from the air. It is blindingly clear that as soon as Azerbaijani forces were capable of effectively utilizing the air to project power and destroy Armenian aligned formations, the war was as good as won.

Nikol Pashinyan had in fact been warned of this eventuality by the fourth day of the conflict, however he had failed to react accordingly. Instead of ensuring a successful and timely mobilization of the nation, he instead issued orders to halt replacements to the front, and opted to send only volunteers to the front lines. Acquisition of new, effective Short Range Air Defense (SHORAD) systems such as the Tor-M2KM were also neglected, and instead older 9K33 “Osa” Short Range Air Defense systems were procured. While simple procurement and mobilization policies would likely not alone have resulted in a victory for Armenia, it would undoubtedly have made the conflict much more difficult for the Azerbaijani military, and a more favorable peace agreement could have been achieved.

Lessons Learned From Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

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When one opts to ignore the reality of the modern battlefield in favor of political fantasy as Pashinyan has done, good men die. The Armenian military was not equipped with the necessary tools to wage a modern war, and the result was a crushing defeat, with thousands of unnecessary casualties. If any military seeks to win conflicts in the modern age, it must take these lessons from Nagorno-Karabkh, lest they suffer the same fate.

Lessons Learned From Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

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70 comments

  1. BMWA1 says:

    I didn’t read anything in here about “listening to Tommy”. Once again I am befuddled and confused! What about the American?

    1. Zionism = EVIL says:

      Tommy has gone quiet like hasbara after senile Biden got selected.

  2. Lilit says:

    It was a disaster. Armenian leadership is totally corrupt and inept and they costed us our land.

    1. Random Dude says:

      How about don’t eye other countries’ lands next time.

    2. Mustafa Mehmet says:

      you invade Azerbaijan land.. wasn’t your land wake up and smell the coffee

      1. Zionism = EVIL says:

        Ain’t that the truth. Also built a Zionist style myth of invincibility. Even the Tigray national front has more guts and taken on the Ethiopian army for a month now with barely 5 million against 100 million Ethiopians. The Armenians have proven to be a total disgrace at all levels.

          1. Zionism = EVIL says:

            I would disagree with Wikipedia BS as usual. Iran and Turkey have more of cooperation than conflict. Iranian interest is in secure borders and influence in Shia crescent which it has accomplished. Turkey is vying for leadership of Arab Sunni world and also Eurasia, and that is encroaching on Russian interests. Stephan Kinzer alluded to this scenario a decade ago in his prophetic analysis Turkey and Iran and the future of America. They are both mature nations with a history of cooperation, rather than conflict unlike the tribal Arabs.
            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/37a378cc866837cd35709dfbe982bff5f7a8505c4619abf8fa3789b05de88c50.jpg

          2. While that is also true, I don’t like Iran’s cooperation with Turkey as I don’t like the latter entity at all, I see it as a second Israel in the Middle East, a Turkic Zionist illegitimate state. I would prefer Iran’s cooperation with even Gulf Arabs over Turkey, because at least they’re closer to each other.
            Where did you find that book?

    3. SevenMoons says:

      Your land?? Keep crying baby, until your fake tears dry….

  3. Rhodium 10 says:

    Armenia only sent one TOR system which was that shot down the 2 TB2 and almost all 11 Harop in Martouni…TB2 cost 5M dollars and Harop 10M….only rich country can afford to use massive Loitering and expensive drones like Harop and Harpy!…by the way that TOR system was destroyed when was spotted by special forces using an small drone from far distance and when was hided in a warehouse was attacked!…meanwhile Iran shot down all Harop close to is borders…Armenian used the SA-8 an old system that only can track one target at the max range is 5000mts alttitude…Tb2 fly at 6500mts…Armenia did not use the Air Force (SU-30SM) to shot down TB2 drones…anyway Armenia population deserve what they have…defeated in NK war and Pashinyan stay in power as a president and commander in chief of the Armenian armed forces!

    1. Lilit says:

      Our own leaders are our worst enemies unfortunately.

      1. Mustafa Mehmet says:

        You can take over lili

        1. Zionism = EVIL says:

          Let’s hope not, the Armenian military spokesperson Shushan Stepanyan is worse than Baghdad Bob in terms of telling absolute lies. Imagine going to bed with her ROFLMAO.

      2. Zionism = EVIL says:

        Lady, your military is even worse. They dug WW1 trenches manned by old men and kids to fight a 21st century war. What amazes me that everyone is still in power and has not been lynched yet.

    2. RichardD says:

      He wasn’t even elected by popular vote. But by a vote by the parliament. And he lost the first one and they had to hold a second one for him to get in:

      “Transfer of power
      Following Sargsyan’s resignation, Pashinyan insisted that the Republican Party transfer power to the popular movement. He said that the “people’s candidate” should be elected prime minister by the Republican-led parliament.[197] He was declared the “people’s candidate” at an April 25 rally in Republic Square.[198] Amid talk of Karen Karapetyan being nominated for prime minister, Pashinyan called for further protests.[199] Republican members of parliament pledged not to stop Pashinyan from becoming prime minister,[200] but in a vote on May 1, his nomination was defeated, 45-56. All but one Republican MP voted against him, while all MPs from the Way Out alliance, and most MPs from the Tsarukyan bloc and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation voted for him.[201][202] Following the vote, Pashinyan called for a nationwide general strike and boycott of classes by university students. He urged people to maintain pressure on the Republican majority in parliament by blocking streets and highways, railroads, and the airports. He accused the Republicans of “announcing war against its own people.”[203] Pashinyan called on the Republican party to surrender.[204] He said that political change is “unavoidable and irreversible.”[205] Virtually all traffic in Yerevan and on most highways in Armenia was stopped on May 2 by tens of thousands of people.[206] BBC noted that Pashinyan’s supporters “brought much of Armenia to a standstill.”[207] After Republican parliamentary leader Vahram Baghdasaryan stated that the Republican majority would help Pashinyan be elected prime minister, Pashinyan suspended the protests.[208]

      On May 8, 2018, parliament elected Pashinyan prime minister in a 59-42 vote. Forty-two Republican MPs voted against him, and 13 in favor.”

      – Nikol Pashinyan –

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikol_Pashinyan#Transfer_of_power

    3. SevenMoons says:

      You remember the days you still denied battlefield progress? It is funny that you are still here.

      1. Rhodium 10 says:

        I didnt denied battlefields progress!..the map was there!..I told that Shusha and Stepanakert would be difficult battles for AZ forces and Armenians has chance to win because mountain areas…also I wrote that Martouni, and North/west areas were under Armenian control!…I didnt thought that Pashinyan was going to betray Armenians in Shusha where Armenia regular army forces deployed in Gori had to launch a counterattacks with the use of the air force and ballistic missiles to expel AZ forces from areas close to Shusha!…

  4. Servet Köseoğlu says:

    Nothing would be changed if Armenia purchased 8-10 tor,pantsir..You have to conceptualize your air-defense architecture and you need minimum:

    -Well-trained personnel.
    -Electronic warfare systems(Electronic support measures,electronic counter measures,electronic counter-counter measures).
    -Early warning-long range radar network.
    -Awacs or russian Beriev a-100.
    -Generating networking capability to transfer data via data-links and wireless communications to calculate final target data and intercept parameters.
    -Short-medium-long range aa in multi-layer design supported with automated guns,anti-drones.

    With approximately 500 million usd military budget you cant simply think,dream let alone purchase such concept so know your place and rely on Russia…xD

    1. Random Dude says:

      To have an air denial one needs to have multi-layered defense covering the whole territory and more. That is a very expensive luxury even for a small territory country.

      1. RichardD says:

        Armenia has it. They just didn’t use it. Pashinyan has a lot of Armenian blood on his hands.

        – List of equipment of the Armenian Armed Forces –

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Armenian_Armed_Forces

        1. Zionism = EVIL says:

          Like I said on September 28, they were rated very high on paper, but proved to be paper tigers. They had top notch Russian equipment including SU-30, S-300, but did fuckall.

          1. RichardD says:

            They could of had S-400s and SU-35s. But with Pashinyan and his cronies sabotaging the war it wouldn’t have helped.

          2. Albert Pike says:

            No nothing would have helped, since Dönmeh Erdogan and Soros/Pashinyan are under the same command…

    2. RichardD says:

      The SU-25s and 30s, S-300s and Buks should have been able to provide cover to avoid the short range systems from being taken out by stand off munitions outside of their range.

      1. Servet Köseoğlu says:

        is it sustainable? su-30 using r-77 missiles..so you have to exchange 1 r-77 missile for one drone..ı dont think su-25 with its crap radar detect drone and note that armenian su-300 has not been modernized and can not detect drones flying under 180 km/h…

        1. RichardD says:

          Yes, one R-77 is sustainable to avoid heavy weapons and troop formations being destroyed. Destroying one drone stops all of the targets that it destroyed from being destroyed.

          Some of the radars can’t detect stealth drones. So you use radars that can detect stealth drones for those ones. A lot of the drones weren’t stealth drones.

          You’re confusing minimum target height with minimum speed. There is no minimum speed that radar can detect that I’m aware of. Birds show up on radar. If you disagree then post a link showing it.

          1. Servet Köseoğlu says:

            ı am not confusing and pretty sure about the speed..Old,unmodernised version of -su-300 can not detect objects which is under 180 km/h,it perceives them as internal fault..exchange for one r-77 against one drone in terms of economy is not sustainable when considering Armenias midget budget..İf country would be Emirates with infinite cash it might make sense..Ps:Minimum target height is not revealed in su-300(armenian)case (ı have some predictions) to make you sense osa sa-8 text book in russian..You can apply same principles to su-300.. sure there will be minor differences at height-altitude
            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fa9ff2a163792304c3d7734efbea14ddfc52f62f3f3ff53a1c9e24ddd9033f97.png

          2. RichardD says:

            I can’t run that screenshot through a translator. It has to be copy and paste. Do you have a link for it?

            Armenia can’t afford half of what they have now. Russia provided Syria with air to air missiles to stop the Turkish drones. And the Armenian military doesn’t need to use R-77s to take down all of the drones. Just the ones that they can’t get with less expensive options.

            The state of repair and modernization of Armenia’s S-300 fleet is unknown. Given that Russia and Armenia have an air defense treaty and Armenia is integrated into Russia’s air defense system to help protect southern Russia. It wouldn’t surprise me if at least some of Armenia’s S-300s and Buks have modern capability.

          3. Servet Köseoğlu says:

            Okey ı got it from russian open source and translated as follows: it may be technically impossible to hit targets slower than 360 km/h (which’ld be all propeller-driven UAVs) at a range further than 6500 m (for the reference, MAM-L range is 8 km)
            There’s also a height limit of 5000 m: operational altitude of a Bayraktar TB2 (which probably assumes standard payload) is just 500 m higher, which is kinda marginal. However, service ceiling (which may allow recon & fire adjustment w/o weapons, although I’m not sure) is 8200 m…

  5. Lazy Gamer says:

    The only thing one can rely on is oneself. The military needs to observe modern conflicts as they happen.

  6. angrycitizen says:

    The biggest factor in the Armenian loss was Pashinyan’s decision to not fight the war using the regular army and just using volunteers and the troops NK had. Pashinyan decided to half-a$$ the war beginning October 1 and it led to defeat. Everything else is secondary. You know what they say about lions being led by sheep.

    The more important question here is, why is Pashinyan still not ousted for treason?

    1. Random Dude says:

      Going all in would only delay this outcome but with extremely higher casualties. He might have actually saved lots of life’s.

      1. RichardD says:

        A no fly zone would have stopped the Azeri advance on the southern plain.

        1. Jihadi Colin says:

          And who exactly was supposed to impose and enforce that?

          1. RichardD says:

            The Armenian military. Look at their anti aircraft inventory.

            – List of equipment of the Armenian Armed Forces –

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Armenian_Armed_Forces

          2. Jihadi Colin says:

            Right, and how exactly was it supposed to do that from the so called state of Artsakh? Or are you saying it should have involved Armenia itself in the war and left it open to an Ottoman invasion from the west?

          3. RichardD says:

            The Armenian Air Force and Air Defense Force has the range to put the no fly zone in place over Artsahk from Armenian air space and ground stations. Without flying over Artsahk or moving ground stations to Artsahk. Though that’s also an option. Particularly with respect to N-K. Artsahk is only about 40 miles wide in most places.

            Armenia has defense pacts with Russia for land and air. The Azeris risk bringing the Russians into the war on Armenia’s side by any attacks on Armenia. The Russians might not intervene directly in the conflict beyond providing material support to the Armenian military if the Azeris stay out of Armenian airspace and territory with planes, troops and equipment.

            But if the Azeris enter Armenian airspace or territory with planes and troops. That would likely trigger a direct Russian military involvement within Armenia to push that back. Though the Russians would likely stay out of Azeri airspace and territory.

          4. John Brown says:

            The Armenians realized, far too late, that by taking them away from Russia for the USA, Nikol Pachinian had bet on the wrong horse. They understand in retrospect that however corrupt the former team that led them was, it was patriotic, while Soros’ men are opposed to the very concept of nationhood, and therefore to the independence of their country. Soros is deterimined to destroy Armenia.

          5. Jihadi Colin says:

            They have not realised it yet by any means. Pashinyan is still in power and no longer even bothering to hide in his hole in the ground and his “opponents” are even busier blaming Russia than he is.

          6. Jihadi Colin says:

            You’re living in a fantasy world where

            1. Russia will defend Armenia in a war started by Armenia.

            2. Armenia will “impose a no fly zone” over the fictional, even according to Armenia, so called Republic of Artsakh without consequences to itself.

            3. The Ottomans, who have invested so much into the war, would sit by and let any of this happen.

            Your fantasy world must be an interesting place.

          7. RichardD says:

            “MOSCOW, October 31. /TASS/. Moscow will provide all necessary assistance to Yerevan in accordance with the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the two countries, if hostilities spill over to Armenia’s territory, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Friday.

            It noted that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to start consultations in order to determine the type and volume of assistance that Russia could provide to Armenia to ensure its security. “We confirm the Russian Federation’s commitment to its allied obligations towards the Republic of Armenia, including those arising from the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia of August 29, 1997,” the ministry said.

            The Russian Foreign Ministry added that some articles of that treaty presupposed specific actions in the event of a threat of an armed attack or an act of aggression against each other’s territory. “In accordance with the treaty, Russia will provide all necessary assistance to Yerevan, if fighting spills over to the territory of Armenia,” it stressed.”

            – Moscow to provide assistance to Yerevan if hostilities spill over to Armenia –

            https://tass.com/politics/1218677

          8. Jihadi Colin says:

            And how does “hostilities spilling over into Armenia’s territory” = “Armenia attacking Azerbaijan from its territory”?

            You really are out of your mind.

          9. RichardD says:

            What is it about:

            “Moscow will provide all necessary assistance to Yerevan in accordance with the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the two countries, if hostilities spill over to Armenia’s territory”

            that you don’t understand?

          10. RichardD says:

            “On 23 December 2015, Russian defence minister Sergey Shoygu and his Armenian counterpart, Seyran Ohanyan, signed an agreement to form a Joint Air Defense System in the Caucasus.[25][29] The conclusion of the agreement followed the Armenian minister’s assertion that the ceasefire with Azerbaijan over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh virtually no longer existed.[30] In June 2016, Armenia’s National Assembly voted 102–8 to ratify an agreement to create an Armenia–Russia joint air defense system.”

            – Armenia–Russia relations –

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia%E2%80%93Russia_relations

          11. RichardD says:

            The Azeris attacked N-K , which the whole world recognizes as Armenian, in violation of the Madrid Principals.

            “In July 2009, within the framework of the G8 summit in L’Aquila, Italy, the three leaders of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair countries, Medvedev, Obama, and Sarkozy, released a statement urging the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev, to “resolve the few differences remaining between them and finalize their arrangement on these Basic Principles”.[23]

            According to that statement, the Basic Principles for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are based on the Helsinki Final Act (1975) principles of Non-Use of Force, Territorial Integrity, and the Equal Rights and Self-Determination of Peoples.[23]

            The above-mentioned document also revealed six key elements for the settlement:

            return of the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijani control;
            an interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh providing guarantees for security and self-governance;
            a corridor linking Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh;
            future determination of the final legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh through a legally binding expression of will;
            the right of all internally displaced persons and refugees to return to their former places of residence; and
            international security guarantees that would include a peacekeeping operation.”

            – Madrid Principles –

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madrid_Principles

          12. Jihadi Colin says:

            Hah. Nobody in the world, not even Armenia, recognises Nagorno Karabakh as Armenian. Are you out your mind?

          13. RichardD says:

            That’s not true. It’s the 7 buffer zone districts that they don’t recognize as Armenian, not N-K.

            Not a single member of the UNSC P5/6 recognizes Artsahk when it includes N-K as Azeri. The Azeris could only get 39 out of 193 UN member governments to recognize Artsahk when it includes N-K as Azeri:

            – United Nations General Assembly Resolution 62/243 –

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_62/243#:~:text=United%20Nations%20General%20Assembly%20Resolution%2062%2F243%2C%20titled%20%22The,session%20of%20the%20General%20Assembly.

            What the international community recognizes is the Madrid Principals. Which is why I posted them in reply to your previous comment.

          14. Jihadi Colin says:

            Not even Armenia considers Nagorno Karabakh as Armenian, whether Armenian or “Artsakh”.

          15. RichardD says:

            “Australia
            In 2012, the Parliament of New South Wales called upon the Australian government to recognize Artsakh. Artsakh maintains a Representative Office in Sydney, Australia.

            Armenia
            Artsakh has very close relations with Armenia. It functions as a de facto part of Armenia.[8][9][10][11][12][13] A representative office of Nagorno-Karabakh was established in Yerevan.

            Europe
            The Republic of Artsakh maintains three representative offices in Europe, including Berlin, Paris, and Moscow.

            Lebanon
            The Republic of Artsakh maintains a Representative office in Lebanon’s capital, Beirut. In March 2018, Artsakh president Bako Sahakyan visited Lebanon and met with Catholicos Aram I, the head of the Catholicosate of the Great House of Cilicia of the Armenian Apostolic Church.[14] In May 2018, representatives of the Artsakh city of Martakert and the Lebanese town of Bourj Hammoud signed a Memorandum of Cooperation in the latter town.[15]

            South Ossetia
            The Republic of Artsakh and partially recognized Republic of South Ossetia recognized each other. Both states abolished visa requirements for its citizens and participate in the Community for Democracy and Rights of Nations.

            Transnistria
            Main article: Artsakh–Transnistria relations
            Republic of Artsakh and Transnistria recognized each other and abolished visa requirements for their citizens. There are many joint activities between the two countries. In 2001, both countries in Stepanakert signed the Protocol on Cooperation and Consultations between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Transnistria and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Artsakh.[16] Transnistria also participates in the Community for Democracy and Rights of Nations.

            United States
            … Support for Artsakh in the United States is manifested above all at the state legislature level. Several of them have adopted Artsakh support resolutions. In May 2012, the Rhode Island House of Representatives in the United States passed a resolution calling on President Barack Obama and the U.S. Congress to recognize Republic of Artsakh. On August 2012, the Massachusetts House of Representatives passed a similar resolution.[17] In April 2013, the Maine House of Representatives and Senate in the United States passed a resolution accepting Artsakh’s independence and urging President Barack Obama to also accept Artsakh’s independence.[18] In May 2013, the Louisiana State Senate in the United States passed a resolution accepting Artsakh’s independence and expressed support for the Republic of Artsakh’s efforts to develop as a free and independent nation.[19] In May 2014, the California State Assembly passed a measure recognizing Artsakh’s independence with a 70–1 vote.[20] The measure also calls for President Barack Obama and the U.S. Congress to recognize Republic of Artsakh.[21] The US state of Hawaii unanimously voted to approve and recognize the Republic of Artsakh on March 30, 2016.[22] The Republic of Artsakh has also established a representative office in Washington, D.C.

            In addition, Artsakh government officials regularly maintain contact with members of the United States Congress. In October 2019, the Foreign Minister of Artsakh noted that the authorities of the Republic attach great importance to the relations between Artsakh and the United States at various levels. The Minister also stated his appreciation of the United States for financial aid, support for the peaceful resolution of the conflict and hoped for further developing cooperation during a meeting with US Congress members.

            On 25 November 2020, the French Senate adopted a resolution to recognize the independence of Artsakh.

            On 15 October 2020, the Italian city of Milan became the first ever large European city to recognize the Republic of Artsakh.[53] On 3 November 2020, the city of Palermo,[54] as well as Asolo,[55] Cerchiara di Calabria,[56] and the Italian region of Lombardy[57] followed.

            On 5 November 2020, the city of Laval in Quebec recognized the independence of Artsakh.[58]

            On 13 November 2020, the legislature of Uruguay’s Montevideo Department unanimously recognized the independence of the Republic of Artsakh”

            – Foreign relations of Artsakh –

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_Artsakh#:~:text=On%2025%20November%202020%2C%20the,recognize%20the%20Republic%20of%20Artsakh.

        2. Random Dude says:

          South probably not. On the plains mere size and technical advantage would in any way overwhelm Armenian defense without air support. But in Gubadly Lachin probably would put a proper resistance.
          The thing is Azerbaijan was regrouping in multiple locations, and Armenians didn’t have enough troops to at least counter those movements. They had to take troops (weaken) from one front and move to another. Which was used by Azerbaijani Special forces to infiltrate Shusha.

          1. RichardD says:

            By stopped on the southern plain I mean that the Azeris would have captured some of it. But would of had difficulty advancing into the mountains where the terrain was more of an advantage to the defenders.

    2. SevenMoons says:

      What difference it made? “Artsakh” or Armenians? All die the same way. Armenians did not even want to die for those wild damn’ed “Artsakh”.

  7. cechas vodobenikov says:

    “if u want peace prepare for war”
    Armenia poorly prepared. Azeris better prepared assisted by jihadis from Syria and drones from Israel, Turkey. hopefully this armistice will stop the senseless killing

  8. Satellitte says:

    Armenian need to make peace with his neighbor not matter how is hard can be , and never count on the west unless you are fake Khazar Jews.

  9. RichardD says:

    The article is accurate as far as it goes. But it leaves a lot unsaid.

    The Armenian Air Defense Force and Air Force, at least on paper. Could have put a no fly zone in place over the Artsahk governate. And even extended it into western Azeri territory to an extent. This would have completely changed the character of the war and made Azeri advances much more difficult or close to impossible without a significant increase in allocated resources.

    The lesson of the war in it’s simplest description is that Pashinyan is a traitor and saboteur. The type of which, no matter what the Artsahk and Armenian military capabilities were. Would have deliberately mismanaged them to insure that Armenia lost. What this disaster is doing still in office is beyond me. Armenia must have some of the most corrupt and inept government officials in the region to allow this tragedy to continue.

    1. Kohlhaas says:

      You keep repeating the same thing over and over again “no fly zone”.
      Even Armenia does not recognize NK!!! That’s the most important thing you should consider before proposing such an idea. Putting a no fly zone means direct involvment of Armenia. Was Armenia prepared for full scale war with Azerbaijan? I don’t think so.
      It is quite simple, Armenians underestimated Azerbaijan’s power and trusted Russian protection while Azerbaijan prepared to this war for years.

      1. RichardD says:

        Artsahk has been an Armenian protectorate for it’s entire existence. The Russians were well aware of this when they entered into defense agreements with Armenia. Any attack on Armenia would have risked dragging the Russians into the conflict on Armenia’s side. Neither the Turks or the Azeris were likely to push the conflict to that level.

        1. Kohlhaas says:

          Nope, I remember very well Putin said that they are ally of Armenia, but the war is not taking place in Armenia.
          It’s seems you are also forgetting that Az. is also an ally to Russia. If he had to make a decision between Erdogan and Putin… Aliyev’s decision will be Putin without even a doubt. If you are not aware of this fact, you don’t have much knowledge on the area.

          1. RichardD says:

            None of the air force or longer range air defense force equipment needed to leave Armenia. They could have put a no fly zone in place over Artsahk from Armenian land and airspace. And let the short range equipment that the Artsahks had provide additional capability.

          2. Kohlhaas says:

            Who said that they should leave Armenia? It is even worse if you use those weapons inside of Armenia. If you remember, that’s exactly why Armenia sent a few S-300 batteries to NK.

          3. RichardD says:

            So what’s your point? Pashinyan didn’t put a no fly zone in place when he should of to close the airspace. If the Armenian Air Defense Force and Air Force stayed in Armenia and the Azeris attacked Armenia they risked drawing the Russians in on Armenia’s side. Which the Azeris would be disinclined to do for obvious reasons.

          4. Kohlhaas says:

            I think I was being very clear.
            Armenia couldn’t impose a no-fly zone either from their territory or inside NK because that was going to be direct involvement to the war and they couldn’t dare to do that. Full scale war would also end up like this war, with initiative of Russia, but probably Armenia would have ended up even harsher terms. The last sentence is just a guess, but this war shows it, Armenians did not use their full power, but same goes for Azeris too.
            So no Russians would not join to Armenian side, they would be “neutral” just like now. You can think Armenia and Azerbaijan as 2 fighting children of Russia…. religion is very irrelevant on Russia’s stance about this issue.

          5. RichardD says:

            So you think that Russia would violate it’s defense treaty with Armenia. I don’t see it that way.

          6. Kohlhaas says:

            No, they wouldn’t violate it, they would stop the war. But as I said, with a neutral position.

          7. RichardD says:

            Their actions say otherwise. They had the Artsahk war stopped with the Azeris still on the southern plain in compliance with the Madrid Principals. And the saboteur Pashinyan wouldn’t agree to it. And now they’ve deployed an armored division, including what’s already in Armenia and in combination with the Artsahk military, to N-K to keep the Azeris out of it.

            If the Azeris started hitting targets in Armenia the Russians wouldn’t have stopped the Armenians from responding, and would have provided the Armenian military with the means to respond more effectively. If Azeri ground or air forces invaded Armenian ground and air space with troops and planes. The Russians would have intervened directly with their forces to push it back.

            Russian neutrality would have been exercised by not hitting Azeri forces on their own territory. But they would have hit them in Armenian territory. Just like they hit Turkish forces in Idlib all of the time.

            The problem isn’t the Russians not complying with the Armenian defense pacts, both air and ground, the problem is Pashinyan sabotaging the Armenian and Artsahk militaries.

  10. Zionism = EVIL says:

    The moral of the story is simple. Do not date Shushan Stepanyan or go near her.

  11. Jihadi Colin says:

    I’ll predict that Pakistan will be a massive customer for drones now while the Indian military of Modi’s favourite out of turn promoted right wing general Rawat will stick obstinately to trying to win a war fought as in 1943.

  12. SevenMoons says:

    I said all along from the very beginning, the war would end really soon with total Armenian capitulation. Some people kept denying and denying. It was inevitable. The results were even more humiliating to Armenians.

    Just hope Armenians learn a lesson. Learn to live with peace. Learn to live with your neighbors. Peace is far more important than some dark black mountains.

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