Lebanon: a Powder Keg That Will Ignite a Wider Regional Conflict

Donate

Lebanon: a Powder Keg That Will Ignite a Wider Regional Conflict

Written by Peter Korzun; Originally appeared on strategic-culture.org

On May 6, Lebanon will hold its first parliamentary election since 2009 to usher in a system of proportional representation. To be sure, it is a small country, but the event will have a very significant effect on the shape of the Middle East’s political and military landscape.

Will there be a power shift? It’s hard to predict, but the election will be watched closely by many Middle Eastern actors, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. The pro-Iranian, anti-Israeli, and anti-American Hezbollah is a rising force, militarily and politically. That group has a good chance of sweeping the election, picking up seats, and turning the balance in its favor, which would send jitters across Israel and provoke deep concern among those who oppose Tehran. The EU realizes that if Syrian refugees leave Lebanon because of instability caused by the election results, their destination will be the European Continent.

Some experts believe a war between Israel and Hezbollah is almost inevitable. It’s just a matter of time. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres believes that a direct clash between Israel and Hezbollah would be a truly nightmarish scenario. That Shia Muslim group has roughly 150,000 missiles and rockets of various ranges in its inventory and boasts a fighting force of about 50,000 soldiers, counting the reservists. A Hezbollah force estimated to be 10,000 strong is operating in southern Syria near the border with Israel. The Jerusalem Post writes that according to experts’ estimates as many as 1,500 to 2,000 rockets could be fired into Israel daily during the next war, compared with only about 130-180 that the country received each day during the Second Lebanon War.

In December 2017, Israeli Intelligence Minister Yisrael Katz threatened to bomb Lebanon “back to the stone age” if the country’s government did not prevent Hezbollah from setting up Iranian rocket platforms. Israel has its own reasons to be primed for a wider conflict in the region.

Meanwhile, it is erecting a border wall with Lebanon. Beirut says that several sections cross into its territory, constituting an assault on Lebanon’s national sovereignty. In February, US and Israeli troops held an exercise to practice for a potential war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. In March, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) honed its skills in preparation for waging battles on multiple fronts. On April 9, the Israeli Air Forces launched a strike on the T-4 Airbase near Palmyra in central Syria where Iranian military personnel were stationed. Iranians suffered casualties and vowed to respond. It’s impossible to strike Hezbollah in Syria without hitting Iranian forces, turning any Israeli-Hezbollah clash into an Israeli-Iranian war, which will inevitably draw in other actors, sparking a wider conflict.

The unsettled maritime dispute over the natural gas deposits in the Mediterranean has greatly heightened tensions, as the boundaries of the “Levantine Basin” often cross underneath the disputed borders between rival nations. The waters under contention are a triangular area of sea measuring around 330 square miles. The last thing Israel and the other countries of the anti-Iranian axis want is for those gas deposits to enrich Lebanon, with Hezbollah getting a large share of the wealth.

A potential conflict between US-supported Israel and Lebanon would no doubt spill over into Syria, where Hezbollah is seen by Israel as a threat, prompting air strikes that would be delivered from time to time in order to disrupt its communications and take out its assets. The forces opposing the Syrian government and Iran will intensify their efforts to turn the tide of the war they are losing. It is unlikely that any relevant actors will stay idle.

US President Trump is widely expected to “decertify” the Iran deal next month. The deadline is May 12. This will certainly add fuel to the fire. It’s hard to imagine American forces in Syria idly watching the fight if an Israeli-Iranian conflict should spark. There are other signs the US is preparing for war there. The idea of deploying a large Arab force in Syria has been recently floated. Qatar is being coerced into sending its forces. Something is clearly being cooked up.

A conflict in Lebanon that would spill over into Syria and then other countries in the Middle East is fraught with potentially dire consequences. The only actor that can prevent a worst-case scenario is Russia, a country with enormous regional clout that has a presence in Lebanon as well as in Syria. It has a military agreement in effect with Beirut and enjoys a special relationship with the Lebanese President Michel Aoun. Russia is the dominant power in Syria that controls both the skies as well as large swaths of land in the de-escalation zones. Unlike the other powers involved, it has good working relations with Israel, Iran, Hezbollah, and the Syrian government, making it a perfect mediator — the sole actor fit for the job. Otherwise, May will go down in history as the month a major war shook the Middle East.

Donate

SouthFront

Do you like this content? Consider helping us!

  • jerry hamilton

    Putin will simply not allow a worst case scenario.

    • Rob

      Palestinian doctors in Gaza reported that the butchers Trump, May and Macron have slaughtered 953 Palestinians in Gaza prison this Friday on 27/4/2018. No human in the world will like unlimited oppression on defenseless Palestinian nation. Trump, May and Macron could call their terrorist Israeli migrants from Palestine otherwise Iran, Hezbollah and Russia will throw them in the Mediterranean Sea.

      • jerry hamilton

        Do you have a link for that? I can’t find it.

        • Promitheas Apollonious

          and you never will. The troll is on heavy drugs

      • ranger

        Israel is SATAN’S SEED and as such they represent pure EVIL. This Evil has “NO Conscience” it Kills Men ,Women and Children and CELEBRATE the SUFFERING they have BROUGHT to the Inhabitant’s in the REGION”. This EVIL must be confronted and DESTROYED!! GOD ALMIGHTY will LEAD the NATION in the Area AGAINST SATAN and his HORDES!!! This SEED will be NO MORE”.

    • Rhetorius

      How is he going to prevent it?

      • jerry hamilton

        He has all the munitions he needs to tell any country to behave but most of all he is or has brilliant strategists.
        I would not play chess with him for money.

      • The Latin Mass

        Putin will go as far as supporting Israhell everytime. That is the extent of Putin’s loyalty of Muslims.

        • jerry hamilton

          Do you remember what was happening when Russia first went into Syria?
          ISIS had just started attacking Palestine!!!

          • The Latin Mass

            ISIS, a jewish golem released on innocent Muslims, got too big for the zionists and it could have gotten out of control (attack the zionists instead of Muslims). So jewamerica or Russia had to get rid of it in Syria and Iraq. Obama did not want to do it. So zionist Putin did so under the auspices of helping Assad.

            Putin and Netanyahu are still friends. Friends for life, it seems.

          • jerry hamilton

            ISIS only ever attacked the IDF ONCE and they apologised for it.

    • velociraptor

      :DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

  • Deo Cass

    The only problem is inteference and intervention from uninvited outside players, most notably the US, UK, France and their cronies. These powers do not belong to the Middle East. So get the hell out of there.

    • You can call me Al

      I don’t think you can say that anymore. This MBS in Saudi Arabia is a blood thirsty, war-mongering nut case + Bibi under pressure at home needs to divert attention…..

      • Merijn

        Sorry for abusing your spot….Roger Smellyman Alert Guys.. just Block him…

        • You can call me Al

          Me or Dea ?, I cannot keep up now with who is slagging who off………ah read it again, but are you sure ?

          • Merijn

            I’m just trying to find a nice way to get rid of infiltrationists like Frank Behrenstein & Friends…that’s why I’m workin’ on a list… when an Infiltrationist starts to bother Peoples in here I will dump me shitlist…I think that’s a good way to get rid of’m… if new Golden $hekelboys arrive I add them to the list…

            SHIT-LIST of infiltrationists:

            Roger Smellyman
            Frank Behrens
            Baron Von MuleBanger
            Joe
            Jens Holm
            Smaug
            Mountains
            Lord of the Wankers

            Beware! They get paid in $hekels to speak with Crooked Tongue…

            Just a little example… things can change if infiltrationists are getting nice folks…or leave…Velociraptrix is kinda harmless so Snakeface not yet on the list…..

          • You can call me Al

            I know a few of them and have blocked them myself, but I have never seen the likes of “Roger Smellyman”, maybe I have already blocked it.

            I do miss “DutchNational” though….. he was such a funny troll.

            Anyway – have fun. Cheers.

            Al.

          • Merijn

            DutchNational…check

          • You can call me Al

            I’ll give you the heads up if I come across him again.

          • BlueInGreen

            Roger Snellmen is a real banger. He is literally the personification of Fox News and Jpost lol. It’s actually comical.

          • PZIVJ

            “Snakeface not yet on the list”
            Good one. :D

    • Pave Way IV

      The only problem… really? I’m all for kicking out agents of foreign governments. They exploit the divisions in Lebanese society to maintain a perpetually chaotic, ineffective and weak Lebanese government. But to say that is the only problem in Lebanese politics is just ridiculous.

      Traditional Lebanese voters like to vote for the local, corrupt mafia boss that either protects or somehow benefits them personally. If that boss isn’t a candidate in their district, they are unlikely to even vote. If their boss is a candidate, then they’ll vote for whatever party he’s in regardless of that party’s program. Decades of this kind of voting created a political class of corrupt leaders in a few major parties. And this is at all levels of Lebanese government.

      To make matters worse in this election, the Lebanese parliament supposedly ‘fixed’ the old voting process to give minority parties/candidates (ones not in the ruling class) a better chance. Candidate lists in a district can be weird alliances of opposing political parties now. In essence, it only frustrates reform-minded voters who are still coerced into voting for the same old corrupt political class. An outsider still has little chance of winning even if they are part of a candidate list.

      The Lebanese can not possibly vote their way out of a corrupt government owned by a political ruling class, any more than the US or any ‘western democracy’ can. The Lebanese political ruling class knows this and still encourages everyone to vote. They figure it legitimizes their power and control – or at least they can claim so. Nothing will change. No reform, but no post-election riots either. The corrupt ruling class will remain in power, and their Israeli, Saudi and western backers (bribers) will continue to have undue influence. Russia isn’t going to try and out-bribe everyone else, and isn’t going to fix the Lebanese government – they’ll work with whatever government comes about.

      The post-election results will be the same: an inept, useless, internally-fighting government running a chaotic, divided Lebanon – just like Israel, Saudi Arabia and the west want. And the same weak national military dependent on battle-hardened Hezbollah fighters to defend Lebanon against the long-planned Israeli attack and land/water grab.

  • Deo Cass

    I add, Zionist cyber war vote rigging experts are already at work for the election in Lebanon to make sure they shift the country under the Zio-Nazi dominion. Voting should be strictly manual not electronic and closely monitored by representatives of the political parties taking part. If not, Lebanon and the Lebanese people are doomed. Expect also a massive Western lie factory media campaign spreading the false news that Hariri had won with a resounding majority before any official results are even issued as had happened in many other countries including the recent elections in Honduras.

  • Joe

    Dont think any party is ready for a Lebanon -Israeli conflict as it surely will drag in Iran , Syria this time. No more Hez fight alone.

    This is what Israel dreads… fight Hez alone is a big headache not to say SAA and Iranian forces.

    No it would not happen yet

  • christianblood

    (…The only actor that can prevent a worst-case scenario is Russia, a
    country with enormous regional clout that has a presence in Lebanon as
    well as in Syria. It has a military agreement in effect with Beirut and enjoys a special relationship with
    the Lebanese President Michel Aoun. Russia is the dominant power in
    Syria that controls both the skies as well as large swaths of land in
    the de-escalation zones. Unlike the other powers involved, it has good
    working relations with Israel, Iran, Hezbollah, and the Syrian
    government, making it a perfect mediator — the sole actor fit for the
    job…)

    Very well-said! Russia is the only voice of reason in this complex and dangerous situation but are the neocohens, their U$, Nato and head-chopping allies ready to listen to peace and reason?

    • as

      After floppy display of 105 cruise missiles they should’ve realized that any sort of escalation that can actually works is sort of starting a world war 3 with suppression and disabling of Russian Air defense network assets. 105 cruise missiles evidently failed to even make a dent on the subject. 105 cruise missiles involved multiple naval assets and warplanes.

      • Merijn

        Kinda pityful, pathetic performance…and those guys want to start WWIII… I would advise them to go back to the drawing board first… and come up with some good ideas..

        • Pacificnorthwest

          Syrian AD crews manning Soviet era Pantsir systems were able to intercept and down a very high number of the ZioNATO missile barrage.

          Impressive performance by the Syrian forces (with it seems a Russian EW assist). Not so impressive the performance of a fairly nassive attempt of ZioNATO to impose shock and awe. More like yawn and fizzle.

    • Merijn

      Well are they going to start a war…? If they could, they already would have right? There have been plenty of reasons…and they only made some Threats here & there, staged chemical attacks and Failed Missile Attacks were their answer…their Headchopper Buddies getting exterminated… this doesn’t look very promising for the Empire…

  • Vince Dhimos

    Lebanon has recently agreed to allow Russian ships to use its ports. Russia also is sending its most powerful and accurate air defence systems to Syria The US just learned not to mess with Russia in Syria. Stuff you won’t read anywhere else is here: http://www.newsilkstrategies.com/news–analysis/a-real-h-o-t-war-with-russia-is-underway-right-now and http://www.newsilkstrategies.com/news–analysis/putin-warns-the-us-hands-off-damascus

  • rudy

    Lebanon will not be alone !

    • The Latin Mass

      Iran won’t risk a conflict. Syria won’t risk a conflict. Jordan is ZOG. Egypt is ZOG. Iraq is a mess politically. Turkey is holding back and building up their army for the 2020s. Saudi Arabia would be cheering for the Israhellis. Cyrus is a non-factor. Greece is zionist. The Gulf states are owned by Washington. Yemen is in civil war. Libya is still in conflict and turmoil.

      Pakistan could help, but is too far away and if they lose the war, the jews would go after their nukes. Would Pakistan rather nuke Israhell than give up their nukes…

    • The Latin Mass

      There needs to be a 10,000 person march in Cairo. With signs “Kill Lebanese Muslims, support Israhell” “Support Sisi, not the Muslim Palestinians” “Head shots at Muslim Palestinians are good for Islam” “Sisi is a fantastic zionist” “Support Sisi, blow up the Dome of the Rock” “Greater Israhell is what Egypt needs”

      When the officials ask, just tell that they stand for everything Sisi stands for in this demonstration.

  • You can call me Al

    Unfortunately I believe that this war is inevitable. The US has been humiliated in Syria and globally, Israel doesn’t feel so eternal after the loss of the F-16 (maybe damaging a F-35 as well – https://southfront.org/is-israel-hiding-that-its-f-35-warplane-was-hit-by-syrian-s-200-missile/) and the International condemnation regards their Palestinian genocide and Saudi could go broke in the next 7 years …… all these vermin need a war and the Syrian intervention was planned over 10 years ago, then the USSR had collapsed and Russia was as weak as a paper bag.

    Why do you think we have an alleged coup in Iran and the manipulation of their currency now ?.

    People have woken up to Israel hence all these new anti-Semitism BS laws + the increasing hostility to Saudi Arabia, so in their thinking, the elitists must put a stop to that and show force.

    Iran will play a role, but if Russia does get dragged into this, well all hell will break out …… maybe it is time to have a war anyway.

    Before I forget, just look at this: https://www.axelhotels.com/live/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Arabia-Saudi1.jpg ……… + Iran can count on most of Bahrain + the East of Saudi Arabia as assets.

    Iran vs Saudi Arabia – http://armedforces.eu/compare/country_Iran_vs_Saudi_Arabia

    PS Sorry for the rant

    • Merijn

      The longer it’ll take for “Their” War to start, the worse it will be for the U.S., IsraHell, NATO, Europe & Wahhabistan…they are stuck in the Swamp and sinking slowly…I enjoy watching how they slowly drown…but they can’t start this New War…for they have No Army!!! Bwahahahaa… Stuck between a Rock & a Hard place…Suckerrrsss

      • You can call me Al

        They can shoot whilst moving !!?, wow. Yes, nice movie.

        Anyway, I digress. It is going to happen, but everyday, Russia get stronger, Russia and China get closer, more people take the side of the good, including governments, the people in Bahrain + the East of Saudi Arabia are informed and getting armed, Nato Countries are either collapsing or thinking twice about the mad Yanks (including the UK, Germany, Italy, The NL and Turkey) and so on and so on…..

        It will be party time, but I hope personally it happens in a couple of months.

        • Merijn

          You can chase Choppers with’m they are pretty fast…it sucks when you are in your Black Hawk and getting chased by this Tor-M2…this will be the moment you wish, you stayed at home with the wife & kids…

  • Merijn

    Yeah..Yeah..Yeah…Failed in Afghanistan…Failed in Iraq…Failed in North Korea…Failed in Syria…Sure why not give it another try…Fucktards…Your Asses will be Kicked Big Time U.S.! In the Created Momentum IsraHell will be pushed into the Mediterranean…one big Swipe…

  • Lena Jones

    Touch Lebanon like ‘that’ and you can be sure that tel aviv will be destroyed by the hezb – they won’t be needing Iran’s help either: their accurate missiles are able to hit ALL the major jewish targets needed to disable israel’s military and civilian infrastructure.

    Touch Damascus and Beirut simultaneously like ‘that’ and Iran will step in for sure and thus it becomes a regional war that could possibly lead to WW3. This, of course, will not save israel’s stinky hind.

    Even if israel nukes Iran, israel will be in smoking rubble anyway – mass exodus of the fake coward jew from the holy land will then commence.

    Any future war in the Levant will find israel losing EVERYTHING. The Axis of Resistance in the Levant is waiting for such a golden opportunity to be rid of the terrorist fake jew invaders for once and for all.

    The fake jews of israel know this, hence: much barking from them but no bite. Before 2006 and the Hezb’s victory, israel was biting and NEVER barking.

  • ranger

    This bodes well for the region, Israel cannot be allowed to attack and dictate to other states in the area. Besides the fact are that Israel is a Murderous regime that KILLS the Native Inhabitants of Palestine with impunity. The middle east countries need to realize It’s Previous Colonizers never hold that Fascist state accountable for it’s crimes against Gaza,Syria,Lebanon and the Holocaust against the Palestinians. Giving Hezbollah a majority in it’s government and acquiring an effective Air defense system, will put the Fascist on notice that it must live in Peace with it’s neighbors of face DESTRUCTION!!. GO HEZBOLLAH!!!!

  • Roger Snellman

    Kim will doom Iran unless he turns away from peace and untold wealth for the other path absolute destruction and a fiery death. Trump is about to decertify the fatally flawed Iran deal. Sanctions will return and be ramped up to weaken Iran. Iranian assets will be destroyed in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Eventually Iran will strike a US asset in the middle east directly. At that point Trump will have license to have his way with Iran. Iran’s navy will be destroyed in 24 hours. Next their air and missile defense. We all saw how worthless that Russian air and missile defense was in Syria. Then Iran’s entire air force will be destroyed. Then 10 Tomahawk missiles will arrive at the home of every Iranian politician. Then the pre- arraigned military coup will end the conflict. Trump will declare victory and Iranians will celebrate.

    • BlueInGreen

      Holy moly…. Roger, I know you probably believe all of the bullshit that you have just stated but to my futility of trying in countering your delusions, I will respond anyways.

      “Iranian assets will be destroyed in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen” highly doubted course of action. Only if the US and Israel are more than wiling to send the entire region into yet another war that is big one that WILL leave US assets, Israeli assets in tatters, so the cost to risk ratio has to be in their favor to them to start a new bigger war that has a large amount of destruction.

      “Iranian navy will be destroyed in 24 hours” highly doubtable as well, Iran has a large number of AD and area access denial weapons couples with 1,000s of ballistic missiles ready to fire at US air bases and friendly nations oil fields.

      The Russians have on the ground evidence to show that the Tomahawk and “allied” attack did not produce results that are in step with what the Pentagon showed at their hearing. 105 missiles for 3 targets in total is a absolute waste of money. That is a lot of TNT for 3 targets. The pictures showed also make no sense. The 3 buildings that were shown to be hit with 76-77 missiles would have been absolutely destroyed with little to nothing left. But as we and many have seen the buildings are surprisingly still standing, so the US story just doesn’t make any sense.

      Look Roger you don’t even know a lick about Iran’s defense doctrine or it’s power so lets not just think Iran will fold and die off like Iraq did. I don’t like Irans government either but lying and believing in blatant delusions doesn’t help your stand here on this site where many of it’s users are against the US/Israeli interventionist agenda.

      • Roger Snellman

        Syria is the size of the state of Washington. The US has always had the power to wipe Syria of the face of the earth. The US chooses not to exercise that power. Trump unchaining the big dogs of war to kill every Iranian in Syria just is not that big a deal. Ditto Iranian assets in Lebanon.

        Your position that the US is incapable of wiping out Iranian assets in Syria and Lebanon is the delusion.

        Your delusion the US is incapable of destroying the Iranian navy is a delusion.

        • BlueInGreen

          No you Roger. If the US had the ability to “wipe” Iran out it would have done it way back when Iran was in a much weaker state than it is now.

          Iran is not alone, and it as a nation is not weak. A weak doesn’t have political influence in three nations with one ally that being Hezbollah having the capability to take on a nation like Israel all on it’s own.

          Research the Mosaic doctrine, Research the vast amounts of weapons Iran posses, research the coastal weaponry Iran has in place, research the Millennium war games 2002 in which the US had actually lost it’s navy in a direct confrontation with Iranian forces, research the current situation in both Syria and Iraq in where any future war with the US would require the US to effectively Invade 3 countries in order to secure some kind of victory.

          Iran has the ability to build and deploy and fire missiles on the constant against US forces and bases all of which are under Iran’s ballistic missiles umbrella. There is no hiding from Irans missiles. With the Russians who most most likely give more weapons to bolster Iran’s defense there is little to worry about.

          Again Roger, Iran is not Iraq and has had 40-ish years in preparing for a possible conflict with the US. Saying that America can wipe Iran out is delusion.

          You’re delusional, and you will show it again in your response to this comment.

          • Roger Snellman

            So now Iran is immune to US nuclear missiles. Is Iran also immune to Israel nuclear missiles? Iran is a little spit of a country that postage stamp sized Israel could turn into a cinder. Hence my point the US can wipe Iran out but chooses not to.

            Wake up man Obama is no longer President. Repeat after me… President Trump

          • BlueInGreen

            Omg… Seriously nukes? Of course you’d bring that up when it’s non-applicable to an Iran in a war-scenario. Nukes only get used when the other side has nukes, Iran only has conventional weapons and a large ballistic missile deterrent. If the US and Israel strike Iran with Nukes it would be of the tactical smaller scale variety but even then most of Iran’s strategic assets are protected with effective and battle proven Russian AD and Iranian homegrown AD (the Same sort that brought down 9 US advanced drones include the most advanced stealth RQ-170 and Reaper drones). The mountains that Iran has are a blessing, they house deep missile storage and base as well as missile production. Think about wack-a-mole with an enemy that has many of it’s bases well protected and hidden.

            Israel has time and time again proven it cannot take on mainland Iran. You and many Right-wing American stronk, Israel forever types think that Israel and the US are some sort of unbeatable entity when the US has been beaten at it’s own game enough times in the past.

            It doesn’t matter Roger. You probably couldn’t name me 5 weapons Iran produces and deploys as well as what their missions would be.

            But keep tugging the line Roger, keep on tugging the line. Israel doesn’t care for us Americans, but they would love for US to lose ourselves in another endless war, this time against an enemy that would make us bleed like no other.

            I’m waiting for your response Roger, I can do this forever, until you get ahold of reality.

          • Roger Snellman

            Just exposing your idiocy:
            “If the US had the ability to “wipe” Iran out it would have done it way back when Iran was in a much weaker state than it is now.”

            This is all about nukes. This is the difference between the US and Iran. The US has the power to wipe Iran off the map but chooses not to. Ditto Israel. Iran on the other hand publically states they will wipe US and Israel off the map as soon as they get the power.. nukes.

            Iran’s quest for nukes and Death to America… statements force Trump to take action. Even Iran’s Mullahs know they will not survive this. They are publically crying for the rest of Islam Shia, Sunni, … to please oh please help them stand against the US. Iran’s Mullah’s have chosen total destruction followed by a fiery death instead of peace and untold wealth. Fortunately Iran’s military leaders are positioning themselves to take over and save their people. Unfortunately there will be much death and destruction before the coup.

          • BlueInGreen

            Back at it again tugging the proverbial line of “Iran wants to Nuke us”. Lol, I guess all that Florida sun kills your brain cells…

            Roger I speak farsi and the line “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” are political slogans meant to rile Iranians in support of various political leaders vying for control in Iranian politics. It’s a relic of the early revolution days that has stuck but the ignorant and fearful West takes it at face value because its easy to sell a potential threat than a real one.

            Iran never wanted nukes, multiple agencies the world over have said this. The last time Iran sort of kind of wanted to get nukes was back in 2003-ish when it did some preliminary work on an outline of what a nuke for Iran would look like and what purpose it would serve. But a fatwa was issued against it, a categorical fatwa against nukes and chemical weapons alike. But you don’t know any of that since you will tug the US and Israeli tag-line of Iran wants nukes to kill us.

            Just a question, so I can gauge the level of your ignorance regarding Iran. Do you sincerely believe that a nation that has mastered the nuclear cycle and has a large nuclear infrastructure can’t build a nuke in all these years that it easily could have? Because if you do then you’re better off not commenting here on SouthFront because no one will take you seriously. (You already have a bad rep)

            This severe anti-Iran stance the US has is about containing Iran’s growth as a people and as a Nation. Iranians and Iran were never supposed to be sovereign. They were supposed to be another Saudi Arabia or Jordan. Nations that do what the US wants and house US bases and troops, buy US weapons at high prices, employ US workers to do various jobs and construction etc, etc. Granted the “mullahs” in Iran are not a good choice leadership but Iranians WILL NOT STAND IDLY BY AND BE BOMBED BY THE US.

            Go ahead, Roger from Florida, I’m waiting to dispell your uninformed lies.

          • Roger Snellman

            If Iran really never wanted nukes then the whole situation is very sad. Just look at poor old Assad, every time someone gets the vapors in Syria he is blamed for a gas attack. The World believes Assad used them back in 2013 so he has been judged guilty of every chemical weapons attack since and will be guilty of every attack until the day he dies. Facts no longer matter only perception. Just look at that last “attack”.

            Now the Mullahs are trapped in the same position. That idiot Obama was so afraid of Iran getting nukes he flew $180,000,000 in cash directly to the Mullahs in Iran as a bribe to promise not to develop nukes. The World believes they must have been developing nukes or the genius Obama would not have coughed up the cold cash. By taking that cash old wily Obama tricked the Mullahs into admitting they were guilty of developing nukes. Fast forward to Trump, only thing he can to is kill all the Mullahs and install a military dictatorship. Wonder if Reza Pahlavi would be interested in taking over where his father left off? If Reza is not interested I am sure we will find some General smart enough to choose peace and untold wealth instead of total destruction and a fiery death. I bet Mattis has a dozen or so Iranian Generals lined up to make the right decision. Trump will get them to do it for only $90,000,000 half of what Obama paid the Mullahs.

          • BlueInGreen

            Hmm… The only institutions in Iran that could take over if the “mullahs” are somehow overthrown (You seem to think in absolutes here, Iran has a complex political system where many different players and groups lobby for power IRGC, the Mullahs, Businessmen, etc, etc…) would be the IRGC or even the Artesh but none of them would be “our” guy.

            This is where I will impart another truth about Iranians as a people to you.

            If there is a war, small or large between the US and Iran. Iranian pride will surely takeover and who ever is left will not be our friend in any meaningful capacity. This is something intelligence agencies like Mossad, CIA, MI6 and others have noted so it makes installing a military dictator hard and ultimately unsavory since the Iranian people already had a bad experience with the Shah. Iranians of today don’t like it when others try to come and dictate terms, most Iranians want the nuclear program in place, even the most liberal Iranian because they believe its their right to pursue such a thing. Today Iran is producing nuclear energy because it fought hard for it and won’t just let it go.

            I also highly doubt Mattis has anyone lined up at all, where are you getting this from?

            Regardless, there is some talk that the IRGC would most likely seize power in Iran since they have the best maintained and funded organization in Iran. So if there is significant unrest in Iran. IRGC will be the most poised to categorically seize power.

            The second part of your response is highly suspect. I would need to see proof of Obama and supposed Mullah collusion and subsequent admittance of Iranian nuclear bomb making aspirations on the part of the Mullahs.

          • Roger Snellman

            You have me completely wrong. I want Iran to choose peace and untold wealth instead of total destruction and a fiery death.

            Iran’s Mullahs are just like Assad. Over half a million Syrians are dead, with far more wounded and maimed. Assad could have avoided this 8 year war but chose the path to total destruction followed by a fiery death instead. Sure is working out well for Assad and Syria. Just read Southfront where many will tell you Assad is winning. 500,000 dead, 8 years of war, destruction, no end in sight
            For Assad that is Winning.

            Iran’s Mullahs are choosing the same path. The responses from Southfront claim Mullahs like Assad have chosen the winning path.

          • BlueInGreen

            I really don’t see where it is you are getting the idea that the “Mullahs” (Iranian government is comprised of much more than just your mullahs) want destruction and a fiery death?

            If peace and untold wealth is to do what the US wants Iran to do then many Iranian don’t want that. This is called being vassal state with no individual will as a nation. Iran used to be such but isn’t anymore and the US still hasn’t gotten over it.

            Also, truthfully speaking what happened to Syria is a tragedy. War is War. We have a lot of our own problems so commenting and acting like we are better doesn’t serve us too well since our enemies can level a lot of claims against us in kind.

          • Rizzzzzzz

            Your right about America ability to wipe out irans assets in syria and Lebanon to an extent. But it not that simple. Theres diplomatic,economic, public and other variables to consider . Iran will not attack american forcea anywhere unless were pushed into a corner . But your wrong about Assad and Iran mullahs choosing “wrong path” Assad didn’t choose this he is fighting foreign aggression and interventions of multiple regional and world powers. Not assads war its called self defence

    • Pacificnorthwest

      The delusional word salad of fervently desired and obediently prophesied outcomes that you parrot… is the zio-crack speaking through you Roger. Your “scenario” is the ravings of a zio-crack addict, get some help man, before you fry your brain completely. It is sad and embarrassing to see someone fall so low.

      • BlueInGreen

        Roger is just another Mountains type profile that has the idea that the West and Israel are some kinds military juggernauts that can’t be defeated or countered. It’s best to leave him be and downvote him.

        • Pacificnorthwest

          I’ve had my dealings with him before. He is obtuse and he loves his zio-crack. So I expect he will continue rotting his brain with his drug of choice.

          • Roger Snellman

            What in the world is zio-crack? Guessing it is an insult in your native country.

          • Pacificnorthwest

            It’s your drug if choice… cupcake.

            It is what you rot your mind with, by slavishly consuming mass quantities of that particular poison. I fear that in your case the zio-rot has gone too far and that your brain is permanently damaged by your addiction.

            Good luck bud, I can only imagine how hellish it must be to live your life in a zio-crack induced zombie coma.

        • Merijn

          Roger Snellman, Frank Behrens, Baron Von MuleBanger, Joe, Jens Holm, Wanker.. all infiltrators…I blocked the fuckers..them is Retards…

          • Roger Snellman

            I have launched over 100 posts and you claim to have blocked every one. Did you get your start designing Russian air defense systems?

            Must be time for an upgrade.

          • PZIVJ

            Blocking means your post are not displayed on his screen or inbox, SmellMan.
            BlueInGreen is right, you do post just like “Mountains” :D

        • Roger Snellman

          Sorry, do not understand your insult “Mountains type profile”. Obviously it does not translate well from your native tongue.

          Here is a very old insult that may be new for you. Your mother is a hamster and your father smells of elderberries.

      • Roger Snellman

        Good luck with your delusion Iran will attack the US and win the war. Wonder why Iran has waited so long to attack the US with their far superior forces and weapons?

        • BlueInGreen

          Roger, from one American to another. I have a sincere question to ask you. Man to man. Please answer it like an adult (I’m being serious here).

          What moral high ground does the US honestly have that it can realistically weigh against Iran?

          We have killed millions of foreign civilians from various countries either directly or indirectly through wars and our pursuit of so call national “interests”. Many families have been torn, killed, maimed by our bombs and weapons the world over. Saudi Arabia has handedly crushed a democratic uprising in Yemen. Yes you heard me correctly, all the poor sandal wearing Houthis wanted was equal political representation in Yemen but the Saudis didn’t want that because of alleged strong Iranian ties and them being Shia (when was the last time Shias were a major threat to US American or even the West in a REALISTIC MANNER). US has helped Saddam kill many Iranians/Iraqis/Kurds by helping him target Iranian cities and soldiers with chemical weapons with satellite imagery. In the Vietnam war, our troops massacred entire Villages suspected of housing Vietcong, we killed millions of Cambodians and Laos and Vietnamese trying to stop the North from arming itself. The US has shot down a completely innocent Iranian air liner, US has leveraged horrible sanctions against civilians to hurt their daily lives in an attempt for them to rile up and overthrow a government that doesn’t bow down to Washingtons will. Is it right that our sanctions killed 100,000s of Iraqi children? Is right to deny medicine to Iranians who desperately need it then have the gall to say that we are Iranians friends? Is it moral right to supply cluster bombs and weapons to Saudi Arabia when Yemenis are dying of starvation and cholera due to lack of medicine, food and other essentials? Isn’t the US supposed to help those who seek out to join or want democracy? I guess Shias don’t deserve equal rights.

          What sort of moral justification do we tell ourselves in order to sleep better at night when so many are dying either directly or indirectly because of US and it’s “allies”. What about the near 100 or soon to be 100 dead Palestinians on their side of Fence in Gaza when they’re protesting against Israels brutal oppression of them? Do innocent civilians most young who want a better life ON THEIR OWN LAND deserved to be killed by some young idiot IDF soldiers who have nothing but hatred and contempt in their hearts?

          Why don’t you just say it Roger from Florida. Why don’t you just say that you don’t like other countries that have sovereignty and you think the US and Israel are the only good guys on the planet. Just say that America is right and everyone else is wrong. Our way of life is the only way of life and those brownies who don’t agree should die in a fiery death.

          Truth is I voted for Trump because I knew that Hillary was a killer and a criminal, but it is sad how Trump just allows war-hawks like Evil Ned Flanders (John Bolton) and Mike Pompeo whisper war in his ears all day long.

          Roger from Florida, when in the future (most likely you’ll be dead since you seem to be in your 50-60’s) other nations/peoples look at the US retrospective history they will see a country that brung modernity/new commodities to every life but killed many/destroyed many to get what it wanted. If this country survives another 50 years (which it very well can go belly up with all the debt and internal instability that has been rising). I hope, sincerely I hope that we become a nation that uses its powers responsibly and with the utmost care.

          Truth is Roger from Florida. Many in the world hate us because our hatred is deserved. What goes around eventually comes around.

          I think the US needs to go to war with Iran, to see if the US really can be all that the US says it is…..

          PS. How are the oranges down in Florida?

        • Sinbad2

          No Iran will not attack the US, because the US wants Iran to attack.
          Why would Iran do anything to please the USA?
          You seem to think that people have no self control. People on both sides are intelligent and calculating.

          Right now numerous nations are testing the USA, it’s like a bullfight, and the USA is the hapless bull.
          But make no mistake, any thinking person knows the bull is cactus.

        • Pacificnorthwest

          It is difficult to maintain a conversation with a complete zio-crackhea,d such as yourself cupcake, because your drug of choice causes your addiction beffuddled brain to throw up dishonest straw man arguments for positions that only exist in your drug induced paranoia.

          Iran has not attacked anyone in a very long time. Iran is not the aggressor nation… that is the zio-crack speaking through you roger. Iran is under the aggression of the ethno-supremacist zionist apartheid state, which seeks to destroy Iran as a potentual regional rival.

          Lay off the zio-crack and you might begin to actually start using your own brain for a change…. if there is any left if it, that is, after your years of zio-crack abuse.

    • BlueInGreen

      Roger, from one American to another. I have a sincere question to ask you. Man to man. Please answer it like an adult (I’m being serious here).

      What moral high ground does the US honestly have that it can realistically weigh against Iran?

      We have killed millions of foreign civilians from various countries either directly or indirectly through wars and our pursuit of so call national “interests”. Many families have been torn, killed, maimed by our bombs and weapons the world over. Saudi Arabia has handedly crushed a democratic uprising in Yemen. Yes you heard me correctly, all the poor sandal wearing Houthis wanted was equal political representation in Yemen but the Saudis didn’t want that because of alleged strong Iranian ties and them being Shia (when was the last time Shias were a major threat to US American or even the West in a REALISTIC MANNER). US has helped Saddam kill many Iranians/Iraqis/Kurds by helping him target Iranian cities and soldiers with chemical weapons with satellite imagery. In the Vietnam war, our troops massacred entire Villages suspected of housing Vietcong, we killed millions of Cambodians and Laos and Vietnamese trying to stop the North from arming itself. The US has shot down a completely innocent Iranian air liner, US has leveraged horrible sanctions against civilians to hurt their daily lives in an attempt for them to rile up and overthrow a government that doesn’t bow down to Washingtons will. Is it right that our sanctions killed 100,000s of Iraqi children? Is right to deny medicine to Iranians who desperately need it then have the gall to say that we are Iranians friends? Is it moral right to supply cluster bombs and weapons to Saudi Arabia when Yemenis are dying of starvation and cholera due to lack of medicine, food and other essentials? Isn’t the US supposed to help those who seek out to join or want democracy? I guess Shias don’t deserve equal rights.

      What sort of moral justification do we tell ourselves in order to sleep better at night when so many are dying either directly or indirectly because of US and it’s “allies”. What about the near 100 or soon to be 100 dead Palestinians on their side of Fence in Gaza when they’re protesting against Israels brutal oppression of them? Do innocent civilians most young who want a better life ON THEIR OWN LAND deserved to be killed by some young idiot IDF soldiers who have nothing but hatred and contempt in their hearts?

      Why don’t you just say it Roger from Florida. Why don’t you just say that you don’t like other countries that have sovereignty and you think the US and Israel are the only good guys on the planet. Just say that America is right and everyone else is wrong. Our way of life is the only way of life and those brownies who don’t agree should die in a fiery death.

      Truth is I voted for Trump because I knew that Hillary was a killer and a criminal, but it is sad how Trump just allows war-hawks like Evil Ned Flanders (John Bolton) and Mike Pompeo whisper war in his ears all day long.

      Roger from Florida, when in the future (most likely you’ll be dead since you seem to be in your 50-60’s) other nations/peoples look at the US retrospective history they will see a country that brung modernity/new commodities to every life but killed many/destroyed many to get what it wanted. If this country survives another 50 years (which it very well can go belly up with all the debt and internal instability that has been rising). I hope, sincerely I hope that we become a nation that uses its powers responsibly and with the utmost care.

      Truth is Roger from Florida. Many in the world hate us because our hatred is deserved. What goes around eventually comes around.

      I think the US needs to go to war with Iran, to see if the US really can be all that the US says it is…..

      PS. How are the oranges down in Florida?

    • BlueInGreen

      MESSAGE TO SOUTHFRONT, DO NOT DELETE THIS. THIS IS GENUINE COMMENT. AT LEAST MESSAGE ME AND SAY WHY YOU THINK THIS MESSAGE IS SPAM.

      Roger, from one American to another. I have a sincere question to ask you. Man to man. Please answer it like an adult (I’m being serious here).

      What moral high ground does the US honestly have that it can realistically weigh against Iran?

      We have killed millions of foreign civilians from various countries either directly or indirectly through wars and our pursuit of so call national “interests”. Many families have been torn, killed, maimed by our bombs and weapons the world over. Saudi Arabia has handedly crushed a democratic uprising in Yemen. Yes you heard me correctly, all the poor sandal wearing Houthis wanted was equal political representation in Yemen but the Saudis didn’t want that because of alleged strong Iranian ties and them being Shia (when was the last time Shias were a major threat to US American or even the West in a REALISTIC MANNER). US has helped Saddam kill many Iranians/Iraqis/Kurds by helping him target Iranian cities and soldiers with chemical weapons with satellite imagery. In the Vietnam war, our troops massacred entire Villages suspected of housing Vietcong, we killed millions of Cambodians and Laos and Vietnamese trying to stop the North from arming itself. The US has shot down a completely innocent Iranian air liner, US has leveraged horrible sanctions against civilians to hurt their daily lives in an attempt for them to rile up and overthrow a government that doesn’t bow down to Washingtons will. Is it right that our sanctions killed 100,000s of Iraqi children? Is right to deny medicine to Iranians who desperately need it then have the gall to say that we are Iranians friends? Is it moral right to supply cluster bombs and weapons to Saudi Arabia when Yemenis are dying of starvation and cholera due to lack of medicine, food and other essentials? Isn’t the US supposed to help those who seek out to join or want democracy? I guess Shias don’t deserve equal rights.

      What sort of moral justification do we tell ourselves in order to sleep better at night when so many are dying either directly or indirectly because of US and it’s “allies”. What about the near 100 or soon to be 100 dead Palestinians on their side of Fence in Gaza when they’re protesting against Israels brutal oppression of them? Do innocent civilians most young who want a better life ON THEIR OWN LAND deserved to be killed by some young idiot IDF soldiers who have nothing but hatred and contempt in their hearts?

      Why don’t you just say it Roger from Florida. Why don’t you just say that you don’t like other countries that have sovereignty and you think the US and Israel are the only good guys on the planet. Just say that America is right and everyone else is wrong. Our way of life is the only way of life and those brownies who don’t agree should die in a fiery death.

      Truth is I voted for Trump because I knew that Hillary was a killer and a criminal, but it is sad how Trump just allows war-hawks like Evil Ned Flanders (John Bolton) and Mike Pompeo whisper war in his ears all day long.

      Roger from Florida, when in the future (most likely you’ll be dead since you seem to be in your 50-60’s) other nations/peoples look at the US retrospective history they will see a country that brung modernity/new commodities to every life but killed many/destroyed many to get what it wanted. If this country survives another 50 years (which it very well can go belly up with all the debt and internal instability that has been rising). I hope, sincerely I hope that we become a nation that uses its powers responsibly and with the utmost care.

      Truth is Roger from Florida. Many in the world hate us because our hatred is deserved. What goes around eventually comes around.

      I think the US needs to go to war with Iran, to see if the US really can be all that the US says it is…..

      PS. How are the oranges down in Florida?

    • RichardD

      And what do you think that $200 oil would do to the US economy?

  • chet380

    If Hizbullah wins the election, would Russia sell S-300’s to Lebanon?

  • Craig A. Mouldey

    Russia may have rapport with all the countries involved because they practice diplomacy. I don’t think they will be able to prevent what is coming because this war has been planned for a very long time. The planners are behind schedule.

  • HighLord Gaz

    Zionist warmongers are up to their old fucking tricks, lies, fabrications… If Lebanon develops an effective deterrent to Zio aggression, so what? That should be a cause for celebration as it compels the few rational Zios to demand their forces stay on their side of the fucking border.

  • alejoeisabel

    Why does Southfront use the Israeli narrative when describing the state of war with regard to Hezbollah and Iran. Hezbollah exists strictly as a defense against Israeli aggression. Moreover, Hezbollah and Iran impede Israeli aggression. Hezbollah has no territorial ambitions in Israel. Hezbollah does support the return of Israel’s illegally occupied Syrian Golan Heights. Hezbollah thwarts Israel’s criminal ambitions.