Milorad Dodik, a Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, has announced a possible declaration of independence of Republika Srpska.
Sarajevo is concerned about the issue. The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina has tried several times to recognize Kosovo, but there are some doubts, because there is a fear of losing 49% of the territory. Republika Srpska also has its own opinion on the matter.
The head of the Serbs of Bosnia and Herzegovina stated several theses:
- Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina are already divided into two different states, although this is not yet official
- Bosnia and Herzegovina is a divided society, with no functioning unified state, but everyone pretends everything is fine
- The Dayton Peace Treaty put fetters on three peoples who have nothing in common after the war
- Reunification of Republika Srpska and Serbia is real, it is only a matter of time
- No one in Sarajevo can say that Banja Luka is not a Serb town. It is a Serbian city and 99% of Serbs consider the Republika Srpska to be Serbia.
In fact, the chances of a self-proclaimed state Kosovo becoming a member of the UN are unlikely. The Serbs released a recognition recall campaign because of Kosovo’s application to the Council of Europe. Foreign Minister Nikola Selakovic said that four states that had recognized the self-proclaimed republic had withdrawn their decision After the so-called recognition recall campaign, Kosovo is beginning to lose ground. The country is now recognized only by 94 UN member states.
Kosovo wanted to join the European Union and NATO. Membership in such organizations as NATO, the EU, and the Council of Europe is possible only for independent countries, and Kosovo has problems with it. Kosovo can use the autonomy only within Serbia, according to resolution 1244 of the UN Security Council. Although Kosovo applied for Council of Europe membership on May 12, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said that it is not only a violation of international law but also of all norms and resolutions. Especially if the accession to NATO was carried out within the framework of the Partnership for Peace program, the consent of all countries would still be needed, but not all countries recognize Kosovo’s independence.
Separatist sentiments in Republika Srpska and Kosovo do exist. Kosovo, on the other hand, seeks to join different organizations, hoping that this will contribute to its independence. Republika Srpska, on the other hand, is observing Kosovo’s optics and does not yet have enough courage to put separatism into practice. Republika Srpska and Kosovo in this case are two links in the same chain and so far they do not have the legal, physical and prospective resources to declare their independence or to make the world at large recognize their independence.
Amid the military crisis in Ukraine and shaping of the European security in general, any escalation on the Balkan Peninsula may lead to unpredictable consequences.
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