The latest escalation in Syria – what is really going on?

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The latest escalation in Syria – what is really going on?

F/A-18 Super Hornet

Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at The Unz Review

By now most of you have heard the latest bad news of out Syria: on June 18th a US F/A-18E Super Hornet (1999) used a AIM-120 AMRAAM (1991) to shoot down a Syrian Air Force Su-22 (1970). Two days later, June 20th, a US F-15E Strike Eagle shot down an Iranian IRGC Shahed 129 drone. The excuse used each time was that there was a threat to US and US supported forces. The reality is, of course, that the US are simply trying to stop the advance of the Syrian army. This was thus a typical American “show of force”. Except that, of course, shooting a 47 year old Soviet era Su-22 fighter-bomber is hardly an impressive feat. Neither is shooting a unmanned drone. There is a pattern here, however, and that pattern is that all US actions so far have been solely for show: the basically failed bombing of the Syria military airbase, the bombing of the Syrian army column, the shooting down of the Syrian fighter-bomber and of the Iranian drone – all these actions have no real military value. They do, however, have a provocative value as each time all the eyes turn to Russia to see if the Russians will respond or not.

Russia did respond this time again, but in a very ambiguous and misunderstood manner. The Russians announced, amongst other measure that from now on “any airborne objects, including aircraft and unmanned vehicles of the [US-led] international coalition, located to the west of the Euphrates River, will be tracked by Russian ground and air defense forces as air targets” which I reported as “Russian MoD declares it will shoot down any aircraft flying west of the Euphrates river”. While I gave the exact Russian quote, I did not explain why I paraphrased the Russian words the way I did. Now is a good time to explain this.

First, here is the exact original Russian text:

«В районах выполнения боевых задач российской авиацией в небе Сирии любые воздушные объекты, включая самолёты и беспилотные аппараты международной коалиции, обнаруженные западнее реки Евфрат, будут приниматься на сопровождение российскими наземными и воздушными средствами противовоздушной обороны в качестве воздушных целей»

A literal translation would be:

“In areas of the combat missions of Russian aviation in the skies of Syria any airborne objects, including aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicle of the international coalition discovered to the West of the Euphrates river, will be tracked by Russian ground based an airborne assets as air targets”

So what does this exactly mean in technical-military terms?

A quick look inside a US fighter’s cockpit

When an F/A-18 flies over Syria the on-board emission detectors (called radar warning receivers or RWR) inform the pilot of the kind of radar signals the aircraft is detecting. Over Syria that means that the pilot would see a lot of search radars looking in all directions trying to get a complete picture of what is happening in the Syrian skies. The US pilot will be informed that a certain number of Syrian S-300 and Russian S-400 batteries are scanning the skies and most probably see him. So far so good. If there are deconfliction zones or any type of bilateral agreements to warn each other about planned sorties then that kind of radar emissions are no big deal. Likewise US radars (ground, sea or air based) are also scanning the skies and “seeing” the Russian Aerospace Forces’ aircraft on their radars and the Russians know that. In this situation neither side is treating anybody as “air targets”. When a decision is made to treat an object as an “air target” a completely different type of radar signal is used and a much narrower energy beam is directed at the target which can now be tracked and engaged. The pilot is, of course, immediately informed of this. At this point the pilot is in a very uncomfortable position: he knows that he is being tracked, but he has no way of knowing if a missile has already been launched against him or not. Depending on a number of factors, an AWACS might be able to detect a missile launch, but this might not be enough and it might also be too late.

The kind of missiles fired by S-300/S-400 batteries are extremely fast, over 4’000mph (four thousand miles per hour) which means that a missile launched as far away as 120 miles will reach you in 2 minutes or that a missile launched 30 miles away will reach you in 30 seconds. And just to make things worse, the S-300 can use a special radar mode called “track via missile” where the radar emits a pulse towards the target whose reflection is then received not by the ground based radar, but by the rapidly approaching missile itself, which then sends its reading back to the ground radar which then sends guidance corrections back to the missile. Why is that bad for the aircraft? Because there is no way to tell from the emissions whether a missile has been launched and is already approaching at over 4’000mph or not. The S-300 and S-400 also have other modes, including the Seeker Aided Ground Guidance (SAGG) where the missile also computes a guidance solution (not just the ground radar) and then the two are compared and a Home On Jam (HOJ) mode when the jammed missile then homes directly on the source of the jamming (such as an onboard jamming pod). Furthermore, there are other radar modes available such as the Ground Aided Inertial (GAI) which guides the missile in the immediate proximity of the target where the missile switches on its own radar just before hitting the target. Finally, there is some pretty good evidence that the Russians have perfected a complex datalink system which allows them to fuse into one all the signals they acquire from their missiles, airborne aircraft (fighter, interceptor or AWACS) and ground radars and that means that, in theory, if a US aircraft is outside the flight envelope (reach) of the ground based missiles the signals acquired by the ground base radars could be used to fire an air-to-air missile at the US aircraft (we know that their MiG-31s are capable of such engagements, so I don’t see why their much more recent Su-30/Su-35 could not). This would serve to further complicate the situational awareness of the pilot as a missile could be coming from literally any direction. At this point the only logical reaction would be for the US pilot to inform his commanders and get out, fast. Sure, in theory, he could simply continue his mission, but that would be very hard, especially if he suspects that the Syrians might have other, mobile, air defense on the way to, or near, his intended target.

Just try to imagine this: you are flying, in total illegality, over hostile territory and preparing to strike a target when suddenly your radar warning receiver goes off and tells you “you got 30 seconds or (much?) less to decide whether there is a 300lbs (150kg) warhead coming at you at 4000mph (6400kmh) or not”. How would you feel if it was you sitting in that cockpit? Would you still be thinking about executing your planned attack?

The normal US strategy is to achieve what is called “air superiority/supremacy” by completely suppressing enemy air defenses and taking control of the skies. If I am not mistaken, the last time the US fighters operated in a meaningfully contested air space was in Vietnam…

By the way, these technologies are not uniquely Russian, they are well known in the West, for example the US Patriot SAM also uses TVM, but the Russians have very nicely integrated them into one formidable air defense system.

The bottom line is this: once the US aircraft is “treated like a target” he has no way of knowing if the Syrians, or the Russians, are just being cheeky or whether has has seconds left to live. Put differently, “treating like a target” is tantamount to somebody putting a gun to your head and letting you guess if/when he will pull the trigger.

So yes, the Russian statement most definitely was a “threat to shoot down”!

Next, a look into the Russian side of the equation

To understand why the Russians used the words “threat like an air target” rather than “will shoot down” you need to remember that Russia is still the weaker party here. There is nothing worse than not delivering on a threat. If the Russians had said “we will shoot down” and then had not done so, they would have made an empty threat. Instead, they said “will treat as an air target” because that leaves them an “out” should they decided not to pull the trigger. However, for the US Navy or Air Force pilot, these considerations are all irrelevant once his detectors report to him that he is being “painted” with the beam of an engagement radar!

So what the Russians did is to greatly unnerve the US crews without actually having to shoot down anybody. It is not a coincidence that the Americans almost immediately stop flying West of the Euphrates river while the Australians officially decided to bow out from any further air sorties.

It cannot be overemphasized that the very last thing Russia needs is to shoot down a US aircraft over Syria which is exactly what some elements of the Pentagon seem to want. Not only is Russia the weaker side in this conflict, but the Russians also understand the wider political consequences of what would happen if they took the dramatic step to shoot down a US aircraft: a dream come true for the Neocons and a disaster for everybody else.

A quick look from the US Neoconistan and the quest for a “tepid war”

The dynamic in Syria is not fundamentally different from the dynamic in the Ukraine: the Neocons know that they have failed to achieve their primary objective: to control the entire country. They also know that their various related financial schemes have collapsed. Finally, they are fully aware that they owe this defeat to Russia and, especially, to Vladimir Putin. So they fell back on plan B. Plan B is almost as good as Plan A (full control) because Plan B has much wider consequences. Plan B is also very simple: trigger a major crisis with Russia but stay short from a full-scale war. Ideally, Plan B should revolve around a “firm” “reaction” to the Russian “aggression” and a “defense” of the US “allies” in the region. In practical terms this simply means: get the Russians to openly send forces into Novorussia or get the Russians to take military actions against the US or its allies in Syria. Once you get this you can easily see that the latest us attacks in Syria have a minor local purpose – to scare or slow down the Syrians- and a major global purpose – to bait the Russians into using forces against the US or an ally. It bears repeating here that what the Neocons really want is what I call a “tepid” war with Russia: an escalation of tensions to levels even not seen in the Cold War, but not a full-scale “hot” WWIII either. A tepid war would finally re-grant NATO at least some kind of purpose (to protect “our European friends and allies” from the “Russian threat”): the already terminally spineless EU politicians would all be brought into an even more advanced state of subservience, the military budgets would go even higher and Trump would be able to say that he made “America” “great” again. And, who knows, maybe the Russian people would *finally* rise against Putin, you never know! (They wouldn’t – but the Neocons have never been deterred from their goofy theories by such minor and altogether irrelevant things as facts or logic).

[Sidebar: I noticed this time again that each time the US tries to bait Russia into some kind of harsh reaction and Russia declines to take the bait, this triggers in immediate surge into the number of comments which vehemently complain that Russia is acting like a pussy, that Putin is a fake, that he is “in cahoots” with the US and/or Israel and that the Russians are weak or that they have “sold out”. I am getting a sense that we are dealing with paid US PSYOP operatives whose mission is to use the social media to try to put the Kremlin under pressure with these endless accusations of weakness and selling-out. Since I have no interest in rewarding these folks in any way, I mostly send their recriminations where they belong: to the trash]

Does the Russian strategy work?

To reply to this, don’t look at what the Russians do or do not do in the immediate aftermath of a US provocation. Take a higher level look and just see what happens in the mid to long term. Just like in a game of chess, taking the Gambit is not always the correct strategy.

I submit that to evaluate whether Putin’s policies are effective or not, to see whether he has “sold out” or “caved in” you need to, for example, look at the situation in Syria (or the Ukraine, for that matter) as it was 2 years ago and then compare with what it is today. Or, alternatively, look at the situation as it is today and come back to re-visit it in 6 months.

One huge difference between the western culture and the way the Russians (or the Chinese for that matter) look at geostrategy is that westerners always look at everything in the short term and tactical level. This is basically the single main reason why both Napoleon and Hitler lost their wars against Russia: an almost exclusive focus on the short term and tactical. In contrast, the Russians are the undisputed masters of operational art (in a purely military sense) and, just like the Chinese, they tend to always keep their eyes on the long-term horizon. Just look at the Turkish downing of a Russian Su-24: everybody bemoaned the lack of “forceful” reaction from Moscow. And then, six months later – what do we have? Exactly.

The modern western culture is centered on various forms of instant gratification, and that is also true for geopolitics. If the other guy does something, western leaders always deliver a “firm” response. They like to “send messages” and they firmly believe that doing something, no matter how symbolic, is better than even the *appearance* of doing nothing. As for the appearance of doing nothing, it is universally interpreted as a sign of weakness. Russians don’t think that way. They don’t care about instant gratification, they care only about one thing: victory. And if that means to look weak, that is fine. From a Russian perspective, sending “messages” or taking symbolic actions (like all 4 of the recent US attacks in Syria) are not signs of strength, but signs of weakness. Generally, the Russians don’t like to use force which they consider inherently dangerous. But when they do, they never threaten or warn, they take immediate and pragmatic (non-symbolic) action which gets them closer to a specific goal.

Conclusion

The Russian reaction to the latest US attack on Syria was not designed to maximize the approval of the many Internet armchair strategists. It was designed to maximize the discomfort of the US lead “coalition” in Syria while minimizing the risks for Russia. It is precisely by using an ambiguous language which civilians would interpret in one way, and military personnel in another, that the Russians introduced a very disruptive element of unpredictability into the planning of US air operations in Syria.

The Russians are not without they own faults and bad habits and they make mistakes (recognizing the Ukronazi junta in Kiev after the coup was probably such a mistake), but it is important to differentiate between their real weaknesses and mistakes and their very carefully designed strategies. Just because they don’t act in the way their putative “supporters” in the West would does not mean that they have “caved in”, “blinked first” or any other such nonsense. The first step towards understanding how the Russians function is to stop expecting that they would act just like Americans would.

The Saker

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  • FlorianGeyer

    As always an insightful and thoughtful article.

    • Bill Wilson

      Really? I consider it to be pure bullshit.

      • Brad Isherwood

        Sure….and so was Iran’s Ballistic Missile program until just a few days ago when from 100s
        Of klms away….fired missiles from Iran into Syria and smashed ISUS while he was taking a dump.
        Iran’s missile technology prowess surprises.
        Maybe those Evil North Koreans have similar and maybe better missiles

        Uncle Shlomo’s 2006 Lebanon nightmares coming back : )

      • Admiral_Moorer_believed

        It does take some thinking to understand. . . And you may not have that capability. . . Or else you are one of the Psy Ops crowd the US is using. . . ;-)

      • FlorianGeyer

        Such is life.
        I wish you well in the US Fantasy Bubble.

        • zman

          He is one of those mentioned by The Saker…Zionist troll. Full of you know what.

          • FlorianGeyer

            Reality is a wonderful thing and the US failure after 16 years and trillions of dollars in Afghanistan admitted by General Mattis is just one more reality for the American people to digest.

          • Tommy Jensen

            bs?

      • Nigel Maund

        When you make sweeping statements without any qualification do you really believe anyone with one ounce of brain is listening?? …………answer; NO! So, before airing aimless and unsupported commentary please give the readers the respect of supporting your commentary?

      • John Whitehot

        you must be one of those folks that comment on youtube videos and write things like “If the S-400 turns on its radar it’s gonna get hit by Harms”.

        • Tudor Miron

          lol

      • marsn2

        Really? I consider you to be pure bullshit.

  • Mountains

    The escalation is bound to happen. SDF is racing towards Deir Ezzor as we speaking from the west. They could enter the city in the coming weeks or month.

    The will take the city or take the half that ISIS controlls which is where the Oil fields are located leaving the ball at SAA hands whether to charge or back down

    • Alex Black

      SDF can not enter the city without attacking SAA in the city on a large scale, this would most certainly produce an aerial denial effect by the russians, rendering the SDF impotent, nonetheless, the kurdish seizure of the euphrates and purging of native arabs is concerning.

      • Mountains

        What do you mean by an ariel denial care to elaborate? I agree it’s concerning but one must understand why they are doing that? The US wants Oil in these two regions. Raqqah will never be handed back. They are already working on setting up an administration in the city with FSA and SDF forces and some sort of governance

        • Alex Black

          Russia can deny US the ability to support SDF with its ground to air missiles that can shoot down targets over most of syria. If the SDF begins its attack, Russia can close the air space to US aircraft, especially with the help of Turkey and Iraq, making a Kurdish operation impossible, as without the US planes, the Kurds are a worthless fighting force.

          • Mountains

            I think this is easier said then done. Blocking the US? go ahead and try. This will mean an all out war between The US and Russia and you can add Iran on the scale also

          • Alex Black

            I dont think so, there is not political support for a shooting war with Russia, certainly not in support of an attack on Assad, who is quite popular with alt right.

          • Rachotilko

            It’s not 1970, US power structure does not need to care about the “political support”, certainly not among the alt right, which is general public without any influence

          • Alex Black

            How do you think the president got elected? A significant campaign issue was President stance vis a vi russia and difference from Clinton. Trump responds to the base.

          • Rachotilko

            Trump responds to the base ? Seriously, he’s not accountable a single bit. Just look what happened : he let military to have free ride in Syria as he gave up presidential oversight. He’s just yet another “Yes we can”
            conman.

          • Alex Black

            To an extent you are correct, but the military responses in Syria have been bitch moves, because without the support of congress, and legislature they are neutered. Why do you think they have not gone to Congress to ask for AUMF? They do not have the support.

          • adam77

            Pence is in charge now that Trump is hostage to impeachment, and Pence owes nothing to the Alt anyone; and is an ISIS fellow theocrat.

          • Alex Black

            Pence is not in charge of anything. You are talking pure conspiracy theory.

          • adam77

            How else can you explain the continuation of sanctions against Russia? which Trump promised to lift by now. Pence is now in charge.

          • Alex Black

            Very simply, trump lost flynn, and with Flynn died the last hope for peace and reason in the empire.

          • adam77

            Pence fired Flynn.

          • Alex Black

            Lies.

          • AMHants

            Have you heard of International Law and War Crimes?

            No declaration of war.
            No UN authority
            No invited from the elected sovereign Government, to invade.

            How come the Dems cannot get anybody elected?

            Is it because the US tax payer is so sick and tired of constant regime changes, that they are expected to pay for?

          • Mountains

            The Alt Right don’t run a jack shit in the US. It’s the leftists who run everything in that country. Don’t get fooled by some bunch alt-right alcoholics who are 24-hours online.

            The leftists would take out Russia if need be within a blik of an eye

          • Alex Black

            that’s why there are a 150k Americans in Syria as oppose to small time bich attacks?

          • AMHants

            Uninvited.

            No declaration of war.
            No personal invite to invade.
            No UN authority.

            Did the US tax payer, fully support, yet another regime change war, that nobody bothered telling them about?

          • AMHants

            Hahahaha – USS Donald Cook X 3 and USS Theodore Roosevelt X2, that was just Russia playing. Then the impotent tomahawks? How many got lost and how much damage did those that hit their target manage? The Syrian Airport had flights taking off, just a few hours later. How much did that strike cost the US taxpayer?

          • Terra Cotta Woolpuller

            Very few pilots are flying airstrikes for the coalition , the french are grounded themselves are getting drunk , Just the US from what I hear .

          • AMHants

            Do you blame them? Get taken out by Russia, when illegally in the nation? At least some nations understand the meaning of war crimes and getting found out.

          • adam77

            Do you have links? where do you hear this?

          • Terra Cotta Woolpuller

            This is according to journalists in the are french operations base . 6 US drones are EQ-4 have been shot down and a Coalition plane is believed to be down near the coast of Syria .

          • Terra Cotta Woolpuller

            Macron was listening to his Mama Merkel .

          • Solomon Krupacek

            can not close

          • Alex Black

            thanks for your opinion.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            gladly.

          • Bill Wilson

            Jesus Christ, are you a fuckin’ idiot or what? Russia can give a rat’s ass about that puppet called Assad nor anyone else in his government. Putin will see that the Kurds will take over Syria and the Hezbollah pig dogs get wasted in battle so there’s less of them to cause trouble with Israel.

          • Alex Black

            You are obviously the idiot.

          • dutchnational

            Phantasy is nice but stupidness begets problems.

            Fortunately, the real actors within Syria, except for maybe turkeys FSA mercenaries, know better. Even in the fights without Us aircover, kurds and SDF did well.

          • Alex Black

            Without air cover, saa would slap you around like a red headed step child

        • itibi ra

          IMO the Anglozionists (the usual suspects) have never been in the ME only for the oil or even mostly for the oil (probably not at all for the oil). It’s all about maximizing chaos there (and in other parts of the world) to bring in their NWO (ordo ab chao). Divide and conquer – reduce other nations to 3rd world countries (or close to it) and weaken them militarily and financially so that the big dog reigns supreme. They are ego maniacs, dangerous ones .

      • Solomon Krupacek

        the bigger east part can take easily

        • Alex Black

          the way ISIS was able to do it…

          • Solomon Krupacek

            within 2-4 weeks raqqa will fall sure. then will be fast movement direction dez.

            the winsdow is close for saa. either will still lament about lackof manpower, or will attack hard and swiftly in 3 direction. third possibility does not exist.

          • Terra Cotta Woolpuller

            They will soon have the T2 airbase in the south , the US can’t advance from the south the Russians are building a base there .They are freeing up more manpower by clearing the some areas and reducing their front down to 60 km from 250 km , and they are getting an influx of fighters and troops from local and Palestine , Iran ,Iraq and Lebanon .

          • Solomon Krupacek

            and from north in 2 days can come the sdf jhadists to DEZ. and if take east DEZ city, the geme is over.

            and also can cross euohrat and block the tiger forces. the enemy is also not stupid. so, hurry saa, hurry!

          • Terra Cotta Woolpuller

            ISIS has that area better defended so SDF coming through there is going to be a real hard fight will take months to do so and the SAA in Deir EZ zoir have retaken areas and inflicted heavy losses on ISIS again ,SDF wouldn’t stand a chance and the US wouldn’t have coalition fighters in the sky near Russian fighters .

          • Bill Wilson

            Fuckin’ Deir Azzor is worthless to the SDF and USA. The USA just snookered Assad into attacking ISIS from the SE desert.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            isis has some thousend fighters. kurds can send 30-40 000 fghters. so, several days and are near DEZ

          • Terra Cotta Woolpuller

            ISIS have more than that in that area they also work with local tribes , Kurdish army is that big but everyone else they would send are fresh recruits not any good against fighters who have been better equipped and battle hardened .

          • George King

            I’ m afraid we will have to have you attend Summer School or set you back at least one grade next fall. You have failed geography miserably in your not well thought out responses to current events. You do not appear to know which side of the Euphrates River Deir Zezzor resides.

            You need to pay more attention to detail than bombast.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            what are you talking about?

          • George King

            Moscow and the West have different views on the situation in Syria. Following the downing of a Syrian Su-22 near Raqqa by US-led coalition forces a week ago, Russia put a halt on all interactions with the US within the framework of the memorandum on preventing incidents in Syria. Moreover, after the Russian Defense Ministry warned of radar tracking of aerial targets in Syria, the international coalition suspended flights to the west of the Euphrates, except for Raqqa.
            According to Khrolenko, the US-led coalition in Syria is acting under anti access/areal denial (A2/AD) conditions provided by Damascus’ allies, including Moscow and Tehran.

            The author noted that demonstration of Russian advanced weapons in Syria, including the Kalibr cruise missile, is aimed at preventing the US and its allies from any reckless moves on the ground.
            https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201706241054937597-kalibr-missiles-russia-syria/

          • Solomon Krupacek

            “Moscow and the West have different views on the situation in Syria.
            Following the downing of a Syrian Su-22 near Raqqa by US-led coalition
            forces a week ago, Russia put a halt on all interactions with the US
            within the framework of the memorandum on preventing incidents in Syria.
            Moreover, after the Russian Defense Ministry warned of radar tracking
            of aerial targets in Syria, the international coalition suspended
            flights to the west of the Euphrates, except for Raqqa.”

            such halt of interaction already was. for 5-8 days. be sure, also now are present. radar tracking is nothing.
            also you can remember the hysterie when turks shot donw russian jet. how long lasted?
            anj finally, 2 days ago australians bomber in east damascus. so, in reality no stopping.

            we will see this aa/ad system. until this minute prevented nothing.

          • Bill Wilson

            The SDF will advance along the river a ways then stop well short of DZ since the Kurds have no interests in that region. The Sissy Arab Army will continue to drag their collective feet attacking ISIS .

          • Solomon Krupacek

            you will see.

    • Terra Cotta Woolpuller

      They are still stuck at Raqqa and soon Bukmal/Qaim will fall and the SAA /PMU noose will close on ISIS on the border , controlling the supply lines will be the key to winning and beating US strategy , too bad they are so one dimensional in thought . The defeating of the US backed FSA will be a blow both in morale and the overall plan by the US . This game is about breaking US faux dominance of the world , the world’s nations have always had the ability to break it but were unwilling .

      • Mountains

        Go back to the map and check it for yourself. forget about Raqqah because they have another unit dispatched from Kurdish held areas towards Deir Ezzor coming from Northwest direction towards DEZ.. Go find the latest Live map that is true not one that was padded

        • Terra Cotta Woolpuller

          Tigers are still on the move , Sukhna only a matter of days now before it falls , try sourcing other maps than here , picture not as rosy as you think for SDF they lost ground on the same base again . The SAA has control of the high ground in the south near T2 , they control points along the road to Bukmal from T3 . These maps are getting in behind the SAA advance, US/SDF has Ruder running their campaign so more fake propaganda will be seen .

          • Solomon Krupacek

            Sukhna only a matter of days now before it falls

            i bet 1000 dollars, that until tuesday will not take

          • Mountains

            Matter of days? I would say months. It has high hills and one of the reasons SAA are trying their luck instead at FSA/SDF/US held areas to by pass them. If they march on AS-sukhan straight on it would be d-day

          • Terra Cotta Woolpuller

            Jobar area as already seen the death of tough talking Commander Saeed al Bashi and FSA Commander nicknamed al-Shishani so far they are collapsing in some of the areas as we speak . This will see more flanking pressure put on a poorly defended place as Sukhna. ISIS spent too much of their resources holding the fields ,bad idea seems as if they had a US General think it was a better to make a field stand . This doesn’t achieve much so far the high ground is held by the SAA and not ISIS and these positions can come under flanking pressures from the SAA , after that the battle to Deir Ez zoir is open ground .

    • Bill Wilson

      SDF & USA can care less about Deir Azzor.

  • Douglas Houck

    Well said. Nuff said.

  • Solomon Krupacek

    lot of words about nothing.

    so, russians said some empty words. when i wrote the same, some fanatics undergone stroke.

    the rest of article is needless self-adulation. unnecessary written, if russians do not want to shoot.

    • Rachotilko

      Mostly agree, with one exception: the observation “Russia is the weaker party here” is very much true. US had its way in Syria: they wanted to deconstruct strong secular Syrian state. Despite Assad in power, they succeeded : Syria is war torn country, rebuilding would take decades, territory is crippled, the severed parts of the former country full of belicose hostile militants.

      I dont see any realistic way of reintegrating the Idlib and “Rojava” into Syria after the ISIL is crushed. There is no more Syria as it was known

      • Solomon Krupacek

        i agree with you.

        america is simply stroger around syria. has dozens of miltary airports, careers, military bases. the two russian basesin syria are in comparison with americans only orphan. easy to isolate. also destroy, if necessary. the logistic is very important thing.

        and also the saa is weak, old structures, no rookies, no goood weapons. impossible to unite syria with 100 000 troops, when the enemy has 200 000 fighters.

        • BMWA1

          True to a point but in Sept 15 the disparity was greater, 80 k SAA troops vs. 200 k Nusra etc all plus 200 k IS aligned, 1:2 is better than 1:5, like Stalingrad in October as opposed to September, critical but not without hope.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            yes, but now are the americans physically in soil of syria. and thi is unfortunately game changer fact.

          • AMHants

            Why? The US has only had 17 years peace in total, since 4 July 1776. Yet, last century the only nation they managed to win the battle was a tiny little Island called Grenada and that took months. Even the pig farmers in Vietnam, with the sweet tunes of McCain, managed to beat the US Forces.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            save us before you

          • AMHants

            ?????

            Just gotta love those pig farmers, over in Vietnam.

          • dutchnational

            Another illitarate found. Last century, that is the 20th century, btw, US fought and won wwI and wwII and also won, or not lost, the Korean war and destroyed the USSR through economic warfare.

          • AMHants

            Hahahahah – OMG are you for real?

            The US won WWII?

            Sorry, but when did they arrive to the party? Gatecrash and take the credit?

            It was actually the Soviet Union, that sacrificed around 27 million, and sent Hitler back to Berlin. Just before the US entered WWII. Not forgetting, how the CIA gave the NAZI and Bolshevik elite safe passage to wherever they desired. Remember Operation Paperclip?

          • jivkobivko

            I doubt that the jihadist had ever more troops than Assad.

          • Mountains

            This. Assad has about 500.000 troops vs all rebel factions is around 250.000 (SDF, FSA, HTS, ISIS etc etc)

          • Solomon Krupacek

            if assad would have 500 000, the war wos be ended 5 years ago. the syrian army in time of best glory was on level 180 000.

        • jivkobivko

          If the enemy had 200000 fighters Assad would have been long gone…

          • Solomon Krupacek

            they hve. kurds 80 000, sdf 40 000, usa plan buid up to 80 000. and will fullfill. and in south 15-20 000 incl jihadists trained in jordan by brits, and 20-30 000 idlib, aleppo.

            assad hadluck, that the kurds did not fight with him and the former anemy was splitted in 40-50 factions. but if he wanrt to take wjhole syria back, need to defeat also kurds. so, assad needs 250 000 troops.

          • jivkobivko

            Ok he didnt have to fight the kurds before so wasnt counting them. But are you saying SDF (arab and kurds) are 120k? that is not possible… at best they are 40 -50k together

          • dutchnational

            At present, YPG incl YPJ 80k+, arabs, , syriacs, turkmen 40k+, HXP (conscript army) unknown but min 25k+

        • Bob

          Where did you get that 200,000 number from? Russian MoD, who seriously track the conflict, estimate figures for militants are far, far, fewer.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            then check the numbers better

          • Bob

            That is inadequate answer – what is your source for 200,000?

      • Bob

        The US partition plan – after their initial regime change plan failed – is for three way partition – Alawitestan to west along Mediterranean Coast, a rump Sunnistan that covers as much as possible running on both centre-east and north-south axes (Aleppo was big loss to this) and Kurdistan across north east. The theoretical rump Sunnistan sector represents much of what ISIS held, but the FSA are simply too weak to reclaim it for their US sponsor’s plan. Rather, the SAA have the initiative in centre and are in driver’s seat in this, the most essential sector of whole US partition plan. SDF/Kurds are overreaching by moving south of Euphrates as are moving into Arab territory and is not sustainable presence. The US intends to hold north east under SDF/Kurd banner and use it as forward operational base – Kurds are just who happens to be most useful party to them. But at best, even under full US sponsorship, this area would be just another partially recognized breakaway statelet like Kosovo – that is, really just a glorified US base – but facing serious Turkish, Iranian, Iraqi and Syrian opposition.

      • dutchnational

        You are right Syria as it was is gone and for democrats, non arabs, maybe for the better.

        A federation or something like that, might be the way to stabilise the country, restart the economy, rebuild lives.

  • Ma_Laoshi

    As always, we will see. So what’s happening with the Tigers at Resafah? Are they still advancing, consolidating, or did this American stunt give them pause for thought?

    • Jesus

      They are waiting to link with SAA coming from Itryia.

    • Cyriak Papasissis

      They faced many ISIS counterattacks , had to consolidate the territory they won , after recapturing some lost positions. They were a bit thin spread.

  • paul

    People die when the usa takes military action ‘just for show’. Americas kill
    just to make a spectacle. Those who have read some of my recent post
    will be well aware of the contempt I have for america. I won’t repeat
    my words here.

  • William Gutgesell

    the ‘shaker’,what a joke! The Russians are late in the game as usual,although I commend the successful missile strike. It would look good if the Federation took in some Syrian refugees,or at least provided some food for it’s Ally.So, if you guys have everything under control (finally) We can focus on the Iraqi and Israeli borders.The Kurds will have a State,and the rebuilding can begin. Good luck.

    • Terra Cotta Woolpuller

      Goodluck with your champagne wishes and caviar dreams .

    • zman

      Another idiot. Russia is not supplying food? You are wrong. Russia saved Syria from certain destruction. ‘We’? where were you? The only way the thieving Kurds will have an area (NO state) is to dump the US lying assholes and join the Syrians. If the Syrians don’t want them, especially after stealing oil, who would blame them. Here’s hoping the Turks run them over to their buddies in Israel. The Kurds must be totally retarded to think that the very scum that supplied Saddam with weapons that he used to slaughter them, will now be their BFFs. The Saker has more brains in his feces than you’ll ever have in your head.

  • Night Wind

    This is a very good and thought-provoking article. China did something similar in the South China Sea dispute by waiting until the week before the UNCLOS decision to close the SCS. When Obama, who’d been acting tough and prodding China, but when he finally had ‘legal’ grounds for a hot war, China dared him to do it, and he ended up slinking away and the ‘Asian Pivot’ collapsed.
    I’ve often been critical of Russian and Chinese responses too, but, as an American myself, I worry that their strategists don’t fully grasp American psychology. Americans today have become a Nation of Bullies and they see lack of forceful response as a sign of weaknesses. What the modern Americans respond to is being met with force. It’s sad that American Culture has degenerated so far in my lifetime, but it’s a fact.

    • Manuel Flores Escobar

      The article more or less say that Russian are not people of inmediate response….therefore is not sign of weakness….well I remember during 80s…Soviet Union deployed SA 5 long range missile in Aleppo and Damascus…threaten all israeli airspace…Israel threatened to destroy them…and the Ministre of defense of Soviet Union said: ” I would not attacks those SA 5 bases…but if they want to do so..they must know that it will be the end of the Hebrew State”!… later Israel tested jericho long range missile and SU threatened again..Simon Peres told that Israel is not enemy of Soviet Union…and never attacked those bases!…after the fall of Soviet Union…Syria never had a capable system to defend its airspace..nor received S-300 and upgrades!..and Israel has launched about 7-8 airstrike vs Syria…

      • Solomon Krupacek

        and in the same time in bekaa valley completely destroyed all 19 soviet units of your wonderweapon! within 4h israel eliminated everything. in cremlin everybody got diarrhoe.

        dont lie, soviets nevet threatened israel

        • Alex Black

          How many shekels for your post?

          • Solomon Krupacek

            you are again primitive.

            why can younot accept the history?

          • Alex Black

            I know history very well. I also noticed how you took offense at the insult to israel. I can understand that, no agent wants his service dirtied. You should ask for a shekel bonus for going above and beyond. On Shabbat no less.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            i acceptz the facts. and in bekaa valley the shole syrian army was destroyed. i remeber wel, how big earthquake was in ´warsaw pact. in that moment understood in ussr, that their weapon systems are shit and must make big changes. after bekaa broke the power of soviet generals. and in short time came gorbachev, who tried to make reforms.

          • Alex Black

            It’s true, Soviet Union sold some weapons to poorly trained Arabs who ran from the systems instead of operating them.

          • Manuel Flores Escobar

            Bekaa attack was in 1982, Gorbachov was in power in 88 after 2 Soviet president die..Andropov and Chernenko…Soviet Union fall was a consecuence of east european people which wanted EU life style and Cristian religion…west EU was rule by socialist partys in capitalist system where Music, drugs, Video,computers attracted them! Soviet Union was a military powerful with capacity to defeat NATO!…

          • Manuel Flores Escobar

            Dont forget that US navy tried to attack Syrian forces in bekaa valley in 1983 and 2 fighter jets was shot down by SA 3/8 system…one pilot die, another was rescue ( A-6 intruder), one A-7 pilot was take captive and liberate when reverend jesse jackson went to Damascus!…

          • Bill Wilson

            LOL! Fuckin’ USSR military couldn’t do shit back then because most of their equipment was broken down and lacked the replacement parts for repairs since those were sold abroad to raise cash for Moscow.

          • Brad Isherwood

            Yes….Jews and US won during 1982 Bekaa.
            Yet during Vietnam war….over 5000 US aircrafts all classes were downed by Russian
            Supplied weaponry.

          • Manuel Flores Escobar

            Even in the first gulf war USA lost 32 fighterjet shot down with old Soviet system during first day of the operation…2 F-15, 2 F-18,5 F-16,1 F-14 tomcat….

          • John Whitehot

            with a F-18 shot down by a MiG-25 with a AA-6 Acrid missile.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            not first day. and take down 8-10% of attacking planes during whole war is very weak result.

          • Manuel Flores Escobar

            To shot down during first days 2 F-15, 1 F-18, 2 F-16..beside 2 F-111, 5 Tornado( Brit,Itali,Saudi) all these in 2 days of war is a good result! above all after be hit by 300 US tomahawk!

          • Solomon Krupacek

            and 2nd day? of course, the have losts, during eliminatin of enemy systems and planes. but after the were the lords of sky. during whole war. so, the big system was able to take down 3 dozens of planes. this is not big success.

          • Manuel Flores Escobar

            Irak could not buy SAM suppliers as UN embargo…otherwise would shot down more US planes!

          • Tudor Miron

            Nah, thats not the kind of history that Solomosha wants to know. What makes me wonder is the fact that many commenters didn’t actually understand what was said in the article. “Look at the facts on the ground in at list short term (1-2 years), don’t let your attention be dragged out by special effects and multimedia tricks.” – mosaical vs kaleidoscope like view at the world.

          • Nigel Maund

            I was many years in Vietnam and the total was 5,500 fixed wing aircraft and 8,200 helicopters. The war cost the US over 2.3 Trillion US$ and this was the prime reason the US had to come of the gold standard in 1972. Nixon had no choice but to get out. The CIA made a fortune out os selling drungs to the US military trading with the Golden Triangle (Burma – Laos – Thailand).

          • Brad Isherwood

            http://rs150.pbsrc.com/albums/s99/MERKAVAS/Airlift3.jpg?w=480&h=480&fit=clip
            Family member was Gunny Of 3rd Marine Mike Co 65-69 Quang Tri Province.
            Photo is 3rd Marine staging at Rockpile area.
            Used to post on Freerepublic. ..
            Poster Aloha Ronnie was Col Hal Moores Radio man /Battle of the IA Drang,
            Made famous in Mel Gibson movie – We were Soldiers.
            Another poster was Green Beret going over the wire Into Laos to rescue
            Downed airmen,Recon Ho Chi Minh Trail, run Hatchet Missions.

            Always enjoy chatting with Veterans.

          • Brad Isherwood

            The number of helicopters destroyed or damaged during the operation shocked the proponents of U.S. Army aviation and prompted a reevaluation of basic airmobile doctrine. The 101st Airborne Division alone, for example, had 84 of its aircraft destroyed and another 430 damaged. Combined U.S./ARVN helicopter losses totaled 168 destroyed and 618 damaged.[9]Wiki
            https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51OeWpWLnvL._SX318_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg

            For those reading along.
            This book is exceptional coverage of the conflict.
            Downed Air crews being hunted,firebases over run,…
            M 551 Sheridan tank platoons getting zapped by NVA on night lager.
            Repeated high drama level in this book.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            sure, in 70ties were parity. but 10 years later already not.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            gorbachov came 11th march 1985. andropov was also reformer, he wont gorbchov, but the old communist put in chair chernenko. gorbachov began with suspending of dozens of old generals. he went in his position dues to crisis of russian army, weapons, strategy, tactics. averything old. the israelis used common, snchronized attacks of drones, planes, missiels, awacs system. the soviets were not prepared an had no chance. 200 warplanes were enough to eliminate the system, which was theoretically 100% proof. and of course also in afghanistan they facded to superiority of western weapons.

          • Tom Tom

            Israel barely won. Israeli’s have no humility and especially no humility towards God who they don’t believe in anymore. You will be destroyed. God will save a remnant in Moab (not even in Israel).

          • Admiral_Moorer_believed

            How long ago was that?

          • Solomon Krupacek

            not important. since that time the syrian army went down, and isralei was 2-3 times modernized

          • zman

            He’s (krupacek) another shill.

          • John Whitehot

            Soviet Union has always provided Syria and Egypt with export versions of their weapons. To be precise, with the export versions made for non-Warsaw Pact countries.

            Nonetheless, those weapons managed to shoot down up to 400 (source Wikipedia, just to provide one that is not suspicious of “Russian propaganda”) Israeli aircraft only during the Yom-Kippur war, with hastily traines Syrian and Egyptian crews.

            That, while Soviet MiG-25s were indiscriminately perform recon missions over Israel operating from Egyptian airbases, with Phantoms and Mirage pathetically trying to intercept them only to stall and fall down because they couldn’t get to their altitude.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            accoirding to your wiki teh number of destroyed il planes: 102–387

            so, rather 250 was that. from 440. and 341–514 (rather 450) arab planes from 550.

            sure, in that time were the levels comparable. also in wietnam were quite good the russian weapons. but decade later , whwn the socialist countries pissed on electronic industry, the west became stronger in this way.

          • Tom Tom

            you will soon accept your fate, anti-God israeli.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            this was hate-speech, fascist. went the flag!

            btw, i am non jew, anti israeli guy. ;)

            but realistic. not like you, your comrades here or palestinians.

          • Tudor Miron

            Yes, yes Solomosha, we know :) You’re not jew, you’re anti israeli and… what also? Another clawn here is claming that he loves Russia (while blackmouthing it constantly). You guys are not even funny…

          • Solomon Krupacek

            shut up, son thousend fathers

          • Tommy Jensen

            Where´s the shekels? The video hide the shekels.

          • John Whitehot

            yeah, and i am polar bear

          • Solomon Krupacek

            one jew never would lie in internet discussion, that he is not jew. but whaledick johny always lies about himself.

          • Admiral_Moorer_believed

            Come on. How much are you getting paid here? You can let me know. I won’t tell anyone else. . . ;-)

          • Nigel Maund

            Try looking in the mirror? Again all you can answer with is insults, hyperbole and meaningless emotion. Throwing insults around publically hardly improves your case and wins you no friends.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            who asked you, moron?

          • Nigel Maund

            Resorting to mere insults just brings you lower with every one you make. You’re playing into my hands beautifully; by all means carry on, as you’re doing a grand job of destroying any argument you may have had with your immature, let us say childish commentary and utter lack of supportable facts?

          • Solomon Krupacek

            piv.pivpiv.dk

          • Tudor Miron

            That thingy has no friends. They don’t know the meaning of this word.

          • Nigel Maund

            Absolutely!

          • Solomon Krupacek

            blablablabla

          • zman

            Yes, that is exactly what you sound like.

          • John Whitehot

            it’s free.
            It’s one of those that take Israeli war propaganda as the truth.

            Besides, there were no SA-5 (S-200) or SA-10 (S-300) back then, he’s just abusing whatever drug russophobic jewish fanboys take.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            another lier :)

        • Manuel Flores Escobar

          It was after lebanon war stupid!..Israel never attacked SA 5 and withdraw test of jericho Missile!

          • Solomon Krupacek

            never attacked, because had no interest. i tell you cleraly. ussr would never use nuclear weapons igainst israel.

          • Manuel Flores Escobar

            and Israel had no interest in destroy SA 5 missile….because Russia send that missile during 80 after lebanon war with 300km range to fly over tel Aviv to display comercial advertisement…do you think people are stupid?..

          • Solomon Krupacek

            in that time was no russia, and ussr did not send enything but greetings.

          • Tom Tom

            they won’t use nukes vs. Israel because they want the oil under the Golan heights (and in the Leviathan discovery in the Med.).

          • Solomon Krupacek

            this was not known in that time :)

        • Nigel Maund

          This looks like it’s written by an Israeli or one of their flag waving diaspora. The English is very poor to say the least and the language charged with meaningless emotion. Some sensible and supportable facts would be nice. Otherwise, we will all treat the article as complete and utter garbage.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            i saw in materials of mya sicialist, pro syrian country. in 80´s
            and also lerned it in military tactics

          • Nigel Maund

            I doubt, given your English, and very poor level of your commentary if your not some kind of Walter Mitty type, living some kind of fantasy? I doubt you have the capability to learn much at all let alone complex military tactics or strategy. If you had, the standard of your commentary would be light years different from what it has been so far! ………..largely ignorant and childish.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            doubt is the second name of satan :)

            go to the hell, little chold, dont disturb here the adults.

            nobobady push you to read my comments.

        • Ivan Kumar

          crupachek is a well known cunt shilling for hasbara

          • tigbear

            No, he is not. He is a realist: there are many fantasists here. That Syria is winning, that Russia will attack Israel on behalf of Syria. That Russia’s “help” is significantly helping Assad gain total victory …

      • Tom Tom

        No, that’s not what he said at all.

      • tigbear

        That was a fake news site. It often publishes “news” like this. You can tell that it’s fake news with these words: “end of the Hebrew State”.

  • Ma_Laoshi

    I may not be right, but I see this differently from The Saker because the concept of “victory” is not so simple when the sides have completely different objectives. Of course, for the Empire a pipeline here or a buffer zone there is nice but in the end, who cares? If they can devastate and balkanize Syria with impunity, at no greater cost to themselves than cheap taxpayer money, with Russia unable to stop it or even negotiating away what should rightfully be sovereign Syrian territory, then the Dark Throne comes out of this very well indeed. They’ll have demonstrated the wages of defiance, and their willingness and ability to raise this kind of hell against anybody that displeases them–again and again. Crucially, nobody can afford to be a Russian ally unless they already have their own strength to deter US (proxy) invasion.

    That’s why I wanted China chipping in, and yes that’s why I want to US to get a bloody nose, through proportional but lethal responses to their crimes. Of course, Russia and Iran will try to claim victory if remotely plausible, and why shouldn’t they if they fought hard on the right side. But the only sign that the US may not win more by getting away with it all is if some poodles like Qatar would leave the reservation for real. Then again, they’ll probably think twice given the above realities. And so, the signal “enough is enough” will come no sooner than when the show goes to Iran. Maybe.

  • RamboDave

    Thanks for the excellent article from the Shaker. The Russian response to the provocation was correct.
    The Syrians are winning, why jeopardize this?

    Also, keep in mind that on that same day the Russians announced that they are building a Russian base about 50 miles North of the US base at the al-Tanf boarder crossing. I imagine they will declare their own deconfliction zone there, just like the US did. Perhaps they will also bring in some air defense systems.

    The next time the US shoots down a Syrian plane ….. then might be a time to turn the radar up to “maximum lock mode”, and start shooting down US drones. Then go for a coalition member aircraft… not a US aircraft.

  • Real Anti-Racist Action

    If anyone is asking “what is going on” then they have not put emotionalism aside and looked at world events for the past 200 years.
    #1 Jews are out to control the world.
    #2 After Jesus refused Lucifer’s offer of ruling the world, Lucifer took his offer to Jews who gleefully accepted!
    #3 With Jews aid to Lucifer they work over time to spread the faults teachings among the churches, send out the faults prophet, and bring about the Faults Christ.
    #4 To resist the Jewish conquest, is to serve the Bible God’s holy word.
    #5 The bible says “The Jews are enemies of the gospel”

    • dutchnational

      Is it possible for you to make a sentence without you using the word jew in a negative way?

      • PZIVJ

        Not possible, this is his mission in life. And of course the holocaust never happened in WW2, and the death camps never existed. Long live KKK and their lies. :(
        And of course N Korea is way cool because they still kill many civs in work camps !

        • eric zweistein

          KKK = CIA

  • Manuel Flores Escobar

    1º 40N6 missile of S-400 complex fly at 12.000km/h…
    2º Russia has shown weakness…1,2,3,4 US attacks..its true that FSA troops inside Al Tanf has been attacked by Russia when they wanted to move forward…but US launched cruise misile vs SAF base to stop SAA troops in Homs!..Russia could have retaliation not in Syria but in Baltic countries…for example to shot down with S-400 Nato plane with the excuse of inminent threaten!..then US would have stopped the attacks vs SAA to not compromisse Nato Baltic allies!…

    • adam77

      Baltic needs peace so that both sides can send more tanks south to crush ISIS and Nusra.

  • Bente Petersen

    agree 100%

  • christianblood

    Thank you so very much, The Saker! That was truly enlightening! The best thing is for SAA, Russia, Iran and allies to focus on defeating and annihilating the U$ proxy jihadists and ignore the U$/Neocon side show provocations. As you rightly pointed out, the pro-ISIS neocons want trap Russia into a major war and Russia should do its best to avoid this trap. Thanks again and keep up the good work!

    The Saker;

  • dutchnational

    The problem with the discribed situation is its ambiguity.

    The shooting down of a Syrian plane attacking on or very near SDF forces and not withdrawing after being warned it was attacking SDF forces can rightly also be blamed on SAA. It was SAA deliberately choosing to attack IS forces very near to SDF lines, thereby creating the circumstances that led to the downing of the old fighter plane.

    As for the Iranian drone, Iran has no business in or near SDF lines and as IS uses armed drones routinely, it is quite normal that unknown drones are downed.

    It is regrettable they were downed, but the circumstances were created by Iran and Syria , which makes them responsable.

    If you do not want to be harmed, do not get into harms way.

    • Solomon Krupacek

      americans have no business in syria

    • zman

      It’s too bad you take US propaganda bullshit as facts. The US has no business in Syria at all. They and their proxies,Al Qaeda, ISIS and thieving Kurds can leave any time. The war would be over tomorrow, but that is not part of the Zionist plan, is it?

  • Tom Tom

    The elites agenda is to rid the world of 7.5 billion people (leaving .5 billion). Force U.S. and Russia into war to destroy each other. Demonic hybrids enjoy radiation.

  • Brad Isherwood

    Sidebar: I noticed this time again that each time the US tries to bait Russia into some kind of harsh reaction and Russia declines to take the bait, this triggers in immediate surge into the number of comments which vehemently complain that Russia is acting like a pussy, that Putin is a fake, that he is “in cahoots” with the US and/or Israel and that the Russians are weak or that they have “sold out”. I am getting a sense that we are dealing with paid US PSYOP operatives whose mission is to use the social media to try to put the Kremlin under pressure with these endless accusations of weakness and selling-out. Since I have no interest in rewarding these folks in any way, I mostly send their recriminations where they belong: to the trash]

    Methinks the lady doth protest to much ( Hamlet/William Shakespeare )

    So….when North Vietnam and VC were dropping 5000 US aircrafts over Vietnam, ….
    Russia was wreckless opportunist bent on MIC profits?

    Sorry Saker…..all those Jewish Oligarchs and Kook Chabad Lubavitch surrounding Putin is
    Why Israel gets a pass,….and US is a partner.

    • Solomon Krupacek

      yup, this russian policy is really success. lost the cold war, wp, ussr, friendly countries, caucasus, ukraine. russians are more and more in defensive positions due their supid non-reacting policy. in 20 yeras the wil be pushed out fron central asia, belarus. so boy, if the russians will not change their mind and thinking, they finish in this century.

      • Tudor Miron

        Solomosha :) your wet dreams hah?

        • Solomon Krupacek

          your world was destroyed, not my. and you, russians did not learn anything. that is sad, not your mental disorder.

    • Tudor Miron

      Brad,
      You constantly try to tell us that (simplfying) that Putin is a traitor and sold his soul to Israel etc. Yeah, it all sounds interesting but… look at the facts from 1991 to now.
      If NWO/Kabbal gang has friends like Putin than they don’t need enemies :)

      • Brad Isherwood

        http://www.conspiracyschool.com/blog/donald-trump-chabad-lubavitch-and-oligarchs

        Most people have no clue what Power ( who’s – who )… looks like in Russia.
        Next is the fact that Russia is still Rothschild Central bank.
        Next is Putin always giving Israhell a pass.
        Next is Russia not striking Israel/…in this case IAF over Syria.
        Nor Turkey who illegally occupies a portion of Northern Syria.
        Nor the US after illegal occupation of Syrian territory and numerous military
        Strike violations…violations which broke signatory and agreement with Russia
        Over Syria operations areas.

        By the way…..I don’t recall posting that Putin was a traitor….
        Only that he is connected to the above paradigms ,
        And yes…..NATO rolled right up to Russia’s Borders on Putin’s watch the past
        8+ years.

      • Solomon Krupacek

        putin is traitor.

        • zman

          you are moron.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            not mormon? :-O

  • Goran Grubić HardyVeles

    “The first step towards understanding how the Russians function is to stop expecting that they would act just like Americans would.

    The Saker”

    AMIN!

  • Ken Wiltshire

    Probably the finest article regarding this whole situation, I have ever read.

    I thank God the Russians don’t think like I do or the world would be a wasteland and I be sitting on rock (If I survived) scratching my irradiated head wondering what I did wrong and looking for someone to blame.

  • RichardD

    Probably 70% to 80% of the pre war populated areas are now under government control. And that is increasing and life is returning to normal in those areas. So in that sense, much of the war has already been won. Most of the fighting is now occurring in the rural areas as the government chases down the rebels and invaders, mostly invaders.

    The government and it’s allies have air cover almost every place that they advance and the opposition that they’re going against has little or no air cover. The war is as much or more about holding what they’ve gained, than making gains, which the government can do on an as needed basis.

    It’s far from a stalemate and at the rate that it’s going in 18 to 24 months the government will have effective control of almost the entire country with mostly mopping up pockets of resistance of the remaining die hards left to do. And the Israelis will be bringing their knee pads with them on their trips to Moscow.

  • kurdi aram

    israel will turn into israHELL soon. this time all bloody devil-worshippers israHELLI will be sent to HELL. Syrian civil war will lead to big war against Jesus-killers, israHELL.
    israHELLI killed beloved JESUS and the will be punished for that. They will NOT have security and peace in palestinian Land.

  • Nigel Maund

    A brilliant article by the Saker! Thanks SF for posting!…. because it sums it all up superbly.

  • Tudor Miron

    Another great article from Saker. Points that I’m trying to bring all along but written in much clearer and readable way than I could ever do with self taught English.

  • tigbear

    I don’t know. I think selling Alaska to the Americans was a short-sighted move. The hesitation it has shown in whether to enter the Syrian War or not, and entering late in the war was a mistake. Giving up Ukraine definitely was. Too many losses. Russia is acting timidly and apologetically and two-faced. Hedging too much. One day it is friends with Israel and warns it of actions it’s going to take that might impact it, and then the next day, it issues a stern warning not to shoot at any more Syrian units, which it promptly does again, and once again Russia does nothing. The same with the US shooting at Syrian forces. This is the second time. The Russians protested the first time. Didn’t stop the US from doing it again. I think the Russians have to work out what the endgame is. Is USA an enemy or not? Is Israel an enemy or not? The USA and Israel are definitely enemies of Assad. But if he has this superpower as an ally and it does not regard the same countries as enemies and openly works with them, giving them friendly warnings before doing anything that might affect them, sharing information about ISIS, sending its envoy to meet the American counterpart frequently, having the head meet with Netanyahu, it really creates a surreal situation. Not a good one. Makes Putin look he’s insincere, not a reliable ally. Yeah, it’s not a good idea to create enemies unnecessarily, but let’s face it, the US wants Putin out. Israel wants Putin out. The US-Israel axis ultimately want to take Russia and China down. It’s unmistakeable. While the US and NATO build up troop movements near the Russian border and clash in the skies near Alaska and the Baltics, Putin pretends Russia is still a friend of the US. He’s cordial when talking to the US president.

    He’s giving too many mixed signals. Looks too weak. One shouldn’t look weak or your enemy will think you are easy prey.

    Putin has to end this oily behavior. He is confusing his allies and everyone else. He is not helping the Syrian situation with this behavior. For example, he invited FSA leaders to the meeting in Astana. By inviting them, he gives them legitimacy. Putin says he is there to remove ISIS, so he gives SDF legitimacy because SDF’s public role is to remove ISIS too. So by limiting his involvement in the war to attacking ISIS, he is, in effect, saying ISIS are the bad guys and everyone else are the good guys.

    This does not help Assad because for him, everyone who opposes the regime are bad guys, or he should think that if he doesn’t.

    And it seems Assad doesn’t see the SDF and FSA as the bad guys. He rarely touches them. He becomes defensive when he is accused of attacking SDF by the USA. Even though he didn’t attack them, he shouldn’t give the impression that it’s wrong for the SAA to attack them.

    So with two weak leaders like Putin and Assad, is it any surprise the war is going against them. Last year, there were no US troops invading Syria. US hadn’t bombed the Syrian army. But now these things have happened, so the war is getting worse for Assad. The adversary has gotten more powerful.

    This happens when you have a weak leader. A strong leader would not countenance having a rebellion in its land. The strong leader would put it down in a heartbeat. The strong leader would not tolerate any foreign forces stepping uninvited in the nation and would attack the invaders as soon as they stepped a foot into the nation. What does Assad do? He acts apologetically when he’s accused of hitting SDF or getting too close to them. How outrageous. He has to step gingerly in his own nation? He mustn’t touch a hair of the rebel force that wants to topple him? What a jerk of a leader. Putin isn’t much better.

    Way to sell your people down the river. And the SAA too, and the IRG and the Hezbollah.

    Just pretend the war is about rooting out pockets of ISIS and ignore the fact that the US and rebel militias are taking over areas of one’s country bit by bit.

    I reckon Iran and Hezbollah should save their bullets and pull out. They need them for their own wars that are coming. Assad doesn’t want to save Syria. He will call some sort of truce after all of ISIS is rooted out, and he will make a compromise for the SDF to keep certain towns under their control. He wants mainly Damascus and Aleppo. The US will leave him alone. They won’t drag his ass out and bayonet it like they did to Gaddafi. Assad gave in to them without too much resistance; he will be rewarded with his safety and being allowed to keep his little fiefdom in Damascus-Aleppo area.

    They know he’s a pussy. He doesn’t have balls like Saddam or the Ayatollah Khomeini. He doesn’t defend his people like Erdogan.

    Putin doesn’t really care. He doesn’t want to face the USA in a war; he too will compromise by settling for a partitioning of Syria.

    As I said, Iran and Hezbollah should pull out. They’re just being used by Assad. He is just saving face now. He doesn’t defend them when Israel hits their forces. He doesn’t even defend his own pilots.

    If people say he’s being realistic because he can’t fight the USA, well, that’s his fault too he’s in that situation. What did he do while Iran and North Korea were arming themselves to the teeth, even trying to get nukes in North Korea’s case, and developing an indigenous missile arsenal like Iran did? How come after all these years he doesn’t have S-300, 400? And if he did get them recently from Russia, how come he doesn’t use them? How come he didn’t spend all that time from 2003 – when Iraq got invaded – until now to amass an arsenal that could beat off even the USA if they decided to attack? What was he doing all this time? His country is wealthy, it has that black gold, what did he use the money for? How come he doesn’t even have tactical nukes he could use from North Korea?

    Because of the lack of preparation, he is in this situation. He can’t even defeat ISIS. His father would be turning in his grave. Assad should go if Syria is to be saved. If this happens, the new leader should sit down with Russia and ask them what do they want in this war? And if Russia says it would be happy to remove ISIS and doesn’t care about the rest, whether the Syrian Government regains sovereignty over the whole of Syria or not, the new leader should shake Putin’s hands, and say thanks for his nation’s service, they are not needed anymore.

    Basically the US is invading Syria. If no one is prepared to face the USA head on (and Russia IS NOT, it won’t get into a full-on war with the US – heck, it didn’t even want to attack SDF before when the US weren’t involved), the US will have won. They want to bite off as big a chunk of Syria as they can. They realize they can’t take over all of it, but getting large portions of it is good enough – they will settle for that.

    So Israel would have defeated Syria. They got Golan Heights already and they got another big chunk of land. The pieces of Syria that Israel takes over is getting bigger and bigger.

    And it will be Syria’s fault. I can’t blame Russia. Russia was a guest fighter; Syria could have declined Russia’s help if they thought Russia’s help was not going to be helpful and actually be a hindrance. Russia said that it was only there to help remove ISIS so Syria should have seen that Russia wasn’t fully committed, and should have rejected Russia’s help.

    North Korea would have been a better partner earlier on in the war. North Korea would have given Syria surface to air missiles, planes, drones, surface to surface missiles, and would not have held back defending Syrian territory from encroachers or attacking insurgents who were anti-government. If Syria had invited North Korea as a mercenary force and advisers and strategic planners, the war would have ended within a year after it had started.

    Lesson from the Syrian War: Get rid of weak leaders. They might seem nice, gentle, soft, non-threatening, reasonable, civilized but they won’t protect you and your nation.

    Don’t accept the help of an ally who is keen to keep good relations with your enemy (Israel and the USA). They will be two-faced and unreliable and tie your hands behind your back.

    • Solomon Krupacek

      the million dollar comment!

      BIG LIKE!

  • SvenBolin

    The US regime is not looking for a win or control in Syria, or anywhere else, ‘divide and destroy’ is the new ‘win’. If you conquer a nation you need to care for it and you will need to negotiate with a government but leaving a nation in a state like Libya you can get what you want from lokal warlords a much better price.

  • tigbear

    Why is every one of my comments on South Front flagged? Why is this comment on every one of them:
    “Hold on, this is waiting to be approved by southfront”? Even after the moderator sees that my comment is flagged – I know they see it because I can see a new comment added by a moderator in the discussion below my comment – nothing is done. Are my comments such DYNAMITE for the South Front site? Wow, I didn’t know my comments could be so influential …
    And South Front asks for my donation? LOL.

    • tigbear

      This is the comment that was posted by me but hidden by the flagging and presumably cannot be seen by readers. What do you think? Deserving of flagging or not? Deserving of being hidden by the moderators or should be approved by South Front?
      _________________
      “I don’t know. I think selling Alaska to the Americans was a short-sighted move. The hesitation it has shown in whether to enter the Syrian War or not, and entering late in the war was a mistake. Giving up Ukraine definitely was. Too many losses. Russia is acting timidly and apologetically and two-faced. Hedging too much. One day it is friends with Israel and warns it of actions it’s going to take that might impact it, and then the next day, it issues a stern warning not to shoot at any more Syrian units, which it promptly does again, and once again Russia does nothing. The same with the US shooting at Syrian forces. This is the second time. The Russians protested the first time. Didn’t stop the US from doing it again. I think the Russians have to work out what the endgame is. Is USA an enemy or not? Is Israel an enemy or not? The USA and Israel are definitely enemies of Assad. But if he has this superpower as an ally and it does not regard the same countries as enemies and openly works with them, giving them friendly warnings before doing anything that might affect them, sharing information about ISIS, sending its envoy to meet the American counterpart frequently, having the head meet with Netanyahu, it really creates a surreal situation. Not a good one. Makes Putin look he’s insincere, not a reliable ally. Yeah, it’s not a good idea to create enemies unnecessarily, but let’s face it, the US wants Putin out. Israel wants Putin out. The US-Israel axis ultimately want to take Russia and China down. It’s unmistakeable. While the US and NATO build up troop movements near the Russian border and clash in the skies near Alaska and the Baltics, Putin pretends Russia is still a friend of the US. He’s cordial when talking to the US president.

      He’s giving too many mixed signals. Looks too weak. One shouldn’t look weak or your enemy will think you are easy prey.

      Putin has to end this oily behavior. He is confusing his allies and everyone else. He is not helping the Syrian situation with this behavior. For example, he invited FSA leaders to the meeting in Astana. By inviting them, he gives them legitimacy. Putin says he is there to remove ISIS, so he gives SDF legitimacy because SDF’s public role is to remove ISIS too. So by limiting his involvement in the war to attacking ISIS, he is, in effect, saying ISIS are the bad guys and everyone else are the good guys.

      This does not help Assad because for him, everyone who opposes the regime are bad guys, or he should think that if he doesn’t.

      And it seems Assad doesn’t see the SDF and FSA as the bad guys. He rarely touches them. He becomes defensive when he is accused of attacking SDF by the USA. Even though he didn’t attack them, he shouldn’t give the impression that it’s wrong for the SAA to attack them.

      So with two weak leaders like Putin and Assad, is it any surprise the war is going against them. Last year, there were no US troops invading Syria. US hadn’t bombed the Syrian army. But now these things have happened, so the war is getting worse for Assad. The adversary has gotten more powerful.

      This happens when you have a weak leader. A strong leader would not countenance having a rebellion in its land. The strong leader would put it down in a heartbeat. The strong leader would not tolerate any foreign forces stepping uninvited in the nation and would attack the invaders as soon as they stepped a foot into the nation. What does Assad do? He acts apologetically when he’s accused of hitting SDF or getting too close to them. How outrageous. He has to step gingerly in his own nation? He mustn’t touch a hair of the rebel force that wants to topple him? What a jerk of a leader. Putin isn’t much better.

      Way to sell your people down the river. And the SAA too, and the IRG and the Hezbollah.

      Just pretend the war is about rooting out pockets of ISIS and ignore the fact that the US and rebel militias are taking over areas of one’s country bit by bit.

      I reckon Iran and Hezbollah should save their bullets and pull out. They need them for their own wars that are coming. Assad doesn’t want to save Syria. He will call some sort of truce after all of ISIS is rooted out, and he will make a compromise for the SDF to keep certain towns under their control. He wants mainly Damascus and Aleppo. The US will leave him alone. They won’t drag his ass out and bayonet it like they did to Gaddafi. Assad gave in to them without too much resistance; he will be rewarded with his safety and being allowed to keep his little fiefdom in Damascus-Aleppo area.

      They know he’s a pussy. He doesn’t have balls like Saddam or the Ayatollah Khomeini. He doesn’t defend his people like Erdogan.

      Putin doesn’t really care. He doesn’t want to face the USA in a war; he too will compromise by settling for a partitioning of Syria.

      As I said, Iran and Hezbollah should pull out. They’re just being used by Assad. He is just saving face now. He doesn’t defend them when Israel hits their forces. He doesn’t even defend his own pilots.

      If people say he’s being realistic because he can’t fight the USA, well, that’s his fault too he’s in that situation. What did he do while Iran and North Korea were arming themselves to the teeth, even trying to get nukes in North Korea’s case, and developing an indigenous missile arsenal like Iran did? How come after all these years he doesn’t have S-300, 400? And if he did get them recently from Russia, how come he doesn’t use them? How come he didn’t spend all that time from 2003 – when Iraq got invaded – until now to amass an arsenal that could beat off even the USA if they decided to attack? What was he doing all this time? His country is wealthy, it has that black gold, what did he use the money for? How come he doesn’t even have tactical nukes he could use from North Korea?

      Because of the lack of preparation, he is in this situation. He can’t even defeat ISIS. His father would be turning in his grave. Assad should go if Syria is to be saved. If this happens, the new leader should sit down with Russia and ask them what do they want in this war? And if Russia says it would be happy to remove ISIS and doesn’t care about the rest, whether the Syrian Government regains sovereignty over the whole of Syria or not, the new leader should shake Putin’s hands, and say thanks for his nation’s service, they are not needed anymore.

      Basically the US is invading Syria. If no one is prepared to face the USA head on (and Russia IS NOT, it won’t get into a full-on war with the US – heck, it didn’t even want to attack SDF before when the US weren’t involved), the US will have won. They want to bite off as big a chunk of Syria as they can. They realize they can’t take over all of it, but getting large portions of it is good enough – they will settle for that.

      So Israel would have defeated Syria. They got Golan Heights already and they got another big chunk of land. The pieces of Syria that Israel takes over is getting bigger and bigger.

      And it will be Syria’s fault. I can’t blame Russia. Russia was a guest fighter; Syria could have declined Russia’s help if they thought Russia’s help was not going to be helpful and actually be a hindrance. Russia said that it was only there to help remove ISIS so Syria should have seen that Russia wasn’t fully committed, and should have rejected Russia’s help.

      North Korea would have been a better partner earlier on in the war. North Korea would have given Syria surface to air missiles, planes, drones, surface to surface missiles, and would not have held back defending Syrian territory from encroachers or attacking insurgents who were anti-government. If Syria had invited North Korea as a mercenary force and advisers and strategic planners, the war would have ended within a year after it had started.

      Lesson from the Syrian War: Get rid of weak leaders. They might seem nice, gentle, soft, non-threatening, reasonable, civilized but they won’t protect you and your nation.

      Don’t accept the help of an ally who is keen to keep good relations with your enemy (Israel and the USA). They will be two-faced and unreliable and tie your hands behind your back.”
      _________________

      • Solomon Krupacek

        btw., i saved your perfect comment for future.

    • Solomon Krupacek

      because here is commenting i big horde of stupid fanatics. you are 3-4 classes above them. you are throwing pearls for swines…

      these idiots flag you, not the south front.

      i am glady, you write your comments. i fyou have blog, let me know.

  • Floyd Hazzard

    A mixed bag. No power should be in an active theatre mascarading. First The Turks, Then Israel and now NATO is making The Russians look ineffective and unimpressive. Prestige, battlefield troop morale and allies protection has to count for something. Is it any wonder The Iranians don’t seem to fully trust The Russians and a lot of their former allies have defected to NATO where they get blanket protection? I wouldn’t want to be in the trenches (literally) with all ally who caves in everytime I’m assaulted. It boosts the morale of my attackers and deflates mine.

    • Solomon Krupacek

      You are correct. This Syria adventure will harm Russias reputation as much as harmed Afghanistan the USSR. Russa has too big mouth in comparison what does. Russia invated americans in syria, ivited turks in syria, allows the division of syria. finally will be revolt in western syria, because without euphrates and water they will have nothing to eat, without oil in eastern syria no industry, no energy, no money. the people will starve. And after revolution will kick out russians. But the russians were always weak and very uneffective. Simply they are not able to focus on one thing and do it perfectly. Sometimes, rapsodically they became good, but never great.

      • Manuel Flores Escobar

        Russia fear US economic sanction NOT US military power…USA fear North Korea military power( Nukes) and NOT Chinese military power….son both have shown weakness!… US air carriers in NK are missing like S-300/400 in Syria….

      • Manuel Flores Escobar

        SAA have the control of east Homs,Aleppo and coming soon Deir Ezzor…most of petrol/gas fields!…also has the control of east part of Eufrates….also rich olive lands in Hama, east Aleppo,Homs…..Russia also shown weakness in NOT attack US backed forces right now after US attack vs SAA!