Writtne by J.Hawk exclusively for SouthFront
The 2000 presidential race being done and over, except for the tens of millions of Americans who believe the election was stolen and a general cloud of illegitimacy that will hang over the Biden presidency for the entirety of his term, Joe Biden finds himself in the place of a dog who was chasing a car—and caught it. Given the magnitude of America’s problem, one would have to be a spectacularly vain and/or power-hungry individual to want the job of President, but then again, who if not Joe Biden is that guy? And now that he has the job, he will have to address a broad range of domestic and international issues in a way that somehow prevents the increasingly intractable problems from causing a system-wide crack-up of US politics. The occupation of the US Capitol with the participation of great many active and retired police officers and members of the military, to the point of prompting US Joint Chiefs to issue an unprecedented proclamation to their troops to shut up and follow orders, means that the temptation to seal the deepening chasms dividing the US society through some sort of desperate foreign adventure intended to secure new markets and resources for US corporations, and therefore US workers and farmers, will increase. That expansion is to be accomplished at the expense of China and Russia, replacing their own homegrown corporations and state monopolies with US-based ones, on the model of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states, and even European countries that are heavily penetrated by US financial and information technology firms to the point of having sacrificed a great deal of their sovereignty. Russia and China have preserved themselves from becoming US “semi-periphery”, in both economic and political sense, which makes them obvious targets for Biden’s own “maximum pressure” campaigns to subjugate them, of the sort that Iran and Cuba, for example, have been bearing for decades. But while it’s clear that US will be openly hostile to both China and Russia, seeking to delegitimize their political institutions and promote destabilization and regime change, it does not appear the Biden administration foreign policy team has a clear plan on how to prioritize between these to biggest targets.
The Indirect Road to China
It is evident from a variety of sources, including quasi-private think tanks like the Atlantic Council and the pronouncements of senior US military officers like Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Milley that the US establishment regards China as a rising power and Russia as a declining one. The latter assessment appears to be based on a simple lack of understanding of processes occurring within the Russian Federation in the last two decades, combined with the Western propensity to regard course of history in linear rather than cyclical terms. US power has grown since 1776, therefore it will always continue to grow. Russia’s power declined after the collapse of USSR, therefore it is bound to continue to decline. But regardless of the source of the misconception, in practical terms it means that while China is viewed as the bigger threat, the Main Enemy, as it were, Russia is seen as a more vulnerable and therefore more attractive target. Judging by the changes in the US policies toward Russia, it appears that the goal of US foreign policy became first regime change in Russia, followed by economic isolation of China that would be much easier to achieve once both the Middle East and the Russian Federation, potential or actual sources of vast quantities of raw materials China’s manufacturing and population require, became US satellites in the same way Australia, for example, already is.
This development would place China in a position identical to Japan’s in the late 1930s, a country that proved highly vulnerable to steadily escalating US economic warfare and which moreover could not capitalize on its Non-Aggression Pact with USSR due to its rather ill-conceived alliance with Nazi Germany. Once isolated by US pressure, Japan gambled everything on a three-theater war against China, the British Empire, and the United States which it ultimately lost. Moreover, should Russia become a US satellite state, its military forces could be committed to a land campaign against China, in the name of “democracy promotion”, mirroring USSR’s decision to join the war against Japan that was solicited by Western powers unwilling to sustain the heavy losses an invasion of Japan would inevitably cause.
The Russian Bear Refuses to Play
The “Free Russia” component of US strategy went into high gear in 2014, when it was expected that the Kiev Maidan would be swiftly followed by one in Moscow, particularly after Western economic sanctions that were imposed as “punishment” for the reunification of Crimea. Were that strategy implemented two decades later, it would have likely enjoyed quick success. Instead it merely validated Prime Minister Witte’s “if you give Russia 20 years of peace, you won’t recognize her”. Instead of becoming a US client state, Russia became more independent and assertive internationally, demonstrating this not only in Ukraine but also in Syria. In spite of the US dominance in the Middle East, the small Russian military contingent in Syria proved impossible to dislodge through the usual US means of supplying and directing proxy non-state actors against the Russian presence.
It does not appear that Western powers-that-be have fully grasped the import of the 2014 “stab in the back” to the Russia-West relations for contrary to the usual Western propaganda, the Russian Federation in 2014 was very much a West-oriented country, seeking greater membership and involvement in Western economic and political institutions. The betrayal of these aspirations by Western actions means that Western leaders are now viewed as utterly untrustworthy, which means that greater exposure to and interdependence with Western economies and institutions is seen as a source of mortal danger to the Russian state. Since both nature and geopolitics abhor a vacuum, the West’s rejection of Russia meant better and more extensive relations with China, motivated by both countries’ shared interest in countering aggressive policies aimed at each of the two. In practical terms it means that it is not in China’s self-interest to see Russia succumb to Western pressure, just as it is not in Russia’s interest to see China fall either. That convergence of Russian and Chinese interests means that Obama-Harris foreign policy will have to reassess the Obama-Biden strategy of “Russia first, China second”.
Escalation or a Two-Front War?
Simply continuing the Obama-Biden strategy will be tempting but tricky. For starters, US sanctions against Russia have already greatly escalated during the Donald “Kremlin Asset” Trump presidency, whose initial outreach toward Russia which triggered #RussiaGate was likely nothing more than an attempt to interest Moscow in an alliance against Beijing, followed by economic warfare when it turned out Moscow was not about to sacrifice its stable relationship with Beijing for the sake of courting favor of fickle and unreliable United States and other Western countries. OFAC’s admission that there is hardly anything more that can be sanctioned in Russia suggests that all the “painless” options have been exhausted. Further expansion of sanctions, by leveling them against Russia’s sovereign debt or cutting Russia off from SWIFT, for example, would also have serious consequences for the United States and Europe. There is a reason these lines have not been crossed yet, and it remains to be seen whether the Biden Administration will be desperate enough to cross them. Further escalation of sanctions would also damage US-EU relations that Biden claims he wants to restore, and it is telling that Biden is framing the restoration of these alliances in terms of opposing China. Germany’s opposition to Trump-era sanctions against North Stream 2 means that the United States is limited where Europe’s vital interests are concerned.
Moreover, it does seem that the US “Deep State” is frustrated by Russia’s resistance and is getting impatient to finally grapple with China. It has already made many moves in that direction during the Trump administration, including the crackdown on Huawei, the effort to ban or seize Tik-Tok, last-minute moves to expand US contacts with Taiwan in violation of the “One China” policy, and most notably by the growing importance of naval and air power in Pentagon thinking. When Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Mark Milley of the U.S. Army says that the Army will need to have its spending cut in order to bolster the U.S. Navy budget, this is no longer some Trumpian whim, but rather an expression of broad-based consensus preferences. Something that violates the long-standing if unwritten rule that each of the three major services, Army, Navy, Air Force, gets an equal share of the defense budget, cannot be anything other than an indicator of a major shift of focus.
Because while a US naval build-up would have consequences for Russia, since USN warships carry long-range land-attack missiles that are to be supplemented by hypersonic weapons and possess anti-ballistic missile defense capabilities, they are hardly suitable for the task of “defending the Suwalki Gap” and other NATO missions in Eastern Europe. Even the US Marine Corps, which during the Cold War had a major European NATO mission in Norway, is shedding its tanks and artillery to reshape itself as a force for littoral combat in the many archipelagoes of western Pacific. So, if anything, it looks like the United States military is actually sacrificing its ability to put boots, and tanks and guns, on the ground in continental Europe for the sake of putting ships and planes into and over the East China Sea and possibly the Arctic Ocean.
Biden’s team could try to reverse all that, but doing so would carry high political costs. Hunter Biden’s China ties are a liability that will be exploited should Joe “show weakness” toward China. The “Uyghur genocide” rhetoric will only intensify in the coming years, there is nothing that Biden can do to stem that, not anymore than Trump could tamp down on the “Russian collusion” theories that proliferated over the years. China’s success at tackling COVID-19 has only raised the sense of urgency about the “China threat” among the US supremacists. And finally there are the domestic US constituencies, often consisting of traditional Democratic Party voters, who backed Trump because the confrontation with China meant the possibility of manufacturing jobs of coming back to the US.
Oceania vs. Eurasia
All in all, it does not appear possible that Biden will have the luxury of picking and choosing theaters of Cold War, which sets us up for the spectacle of the United States that could not defeat the Taliban attempt to tackle two Eurasian major powers all at once. As in the previous iteration of “Cold War”, the battlefield will be the peripheral countries that are torn between the United States and the Eurasian powers. These include the European Union, whose economic interests are not served by US-led escalation toward either Russia or China, but also Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Australia, Philippines, and even India which collectively represent a geopolitical “no-man’s land” since their alliance commitments to the US are balanced by economic ties to America’s “designated enemies”.
Whether the United States is up to the task of handling this kind of a challenge is an open question. China’s, Russia’s economic systems are far more viable than they were during the Cold War, and are also healthier than Western economies that are struggling under massive debt burdens and require constant monetary stimulus policies by their respective central banks. US internal problems and divisions will likewise drain attention and budget funding away from international adventures. Should Biden focus on implementing this extreme foreign policy agenda at the expense of domestic priorities, the next round of isolationist backlash in the US will be even stronger than the previous one. So the situation in many ways resembles that facing the Nixon Administration in the late 1960s. However, is anyone in the Biden Administration willing to pursue détente policies?
MORE ON THE TOPIC:
- United States Crossed Threshold Into Dark Age Of Neo-Liberal Totalitarianism
- U.S. Capitol Assault Revealed Real Face Of ‘American Democracy’
US considers Russia as weak and easy to break-up on the Yugoslav template. China is 1.4 billion people, mostly homogeneous and with the world’s largest economy. Russia is now in the same power league as Iran or Turkey, perhaps ethnically more vulnerable. Russia will be the prime target for Biden’s deep state.
Russia/China probably considers the U.S. itself in a weak state, easy to break-up and Balkanize.
It already appears to be well on the way with the 2016 and 2020 political crisis’s.
The U.S. overseas Empire is already fracturing.
Turkey got heavily beaten in Syria and partially in Libya, and US got heavily beaten in Afghanistan by the Taleban. Even though Turkey has the 2nd largest army in Nato and USA has the largest army.
US army can’t wage a single large war or two medium sized wars at once. I don’t disagree with your assumption that US “Russian experts” might think they can attack Russia and win, but I can guarantee you this that it would be an epic headcrash against a concrete wall.
“US experts” is an oxymoron. These people are shit-thick clowns drunk on their own hubris. Pay them no mind, other than to laugh at their nonsensical pronouncements. They deserve nought but derision.
US military is still dangerous, but if you insist, you’re welcome to go ahead and underestimate it’s capabilities as grossly as it underestimates Russia, and Iran. While grossly overestimating one’s own. Doing so guarantees many new, and exciting ways to get one’s ass kicked resoundingly.
Biden is more anti russia than ccp,no brainer,asides your engineering expertise null+ void!
US Government may consider Russia as weak, but it doesn’t. The Pentagon knows damn well Russia is not weak. It considers Russia to be what it is. A world power. A world power that outguns the Western powers. The Pentagon knows it’s forces are not up to the war US Government is provoking. Take a good look at US military equipment, age, condition, technology that is not upgradable, and spread thin worldwide. Yeah, it’s big, it’s tied up occupying countries it dare not pull forces out to open yet another theatre, that would leave these occupied country’s easy prey to countries that would very much like to see US military removed from these countries. In contrast Russian forces are free to move wherever, instantly, and in numbers. Russian military is over 70% modernized, and prepared. Active duty forces are fewer in number, but have a bigger reserve. Their biggest advantage is the Germans taught the Russian’s how to fight, and they’ve spent 70+ years surpassing their teachers. “Epic headcrash into a concrete wall” is a tad understated, but quite accurate. US has no war production capacity, and is practicing genocide on it’s population. Let that sink in.
I agree with your assessment however it’s not the Germans that taught the Russians to fight! For many centuries Russia was attacked by various entities, Teutonic Knights, Mongols, Poles, Lithuanians, French, Turks. Russia has a very long history of wars waged against her and each time, learned valuable lessons.
That is true. It’s also true that in terms of today’s “Blitzkrieg” war, the German’s taught the Russian’s. This comment was made by Waffen SS Colonel Hans von Luck, on the changes in Russia’s military as the war progressed. The Colonel has the distinction of after having overrun Georgi Zukhov’s Command Center, sitting down, and eating his still hot breakfast. von Luck’s book is an interesting read. He discusses the events that led him to join the political arm of the military, the events that led to his efforts to disentangle himself from Waffen SS, and move to Wehrmacht. Finding this could not be done when he encountered an old schoolmate that refused to join Waffen SS, instead joined Wehrmacht, in Russia wearing a Waffen SS uniform, late in the war. He’d been hijacked as the numbers of Waffen SS had been decimated. von Luck wasn’t the only Waffen SS officer that rejected the Sepp Dietrich style of warfare. Russian civilians hated SS, or any German in a black uniform. Wehrmacht panzer divisions wore black uniforms, so it sucked to be them in Russia. The partisan’s drove the German’s crazy.
It is evident that the author does not know the Primakov Doctrine, in the same way he is unaware of the VVP speech in Munich 2007 [seven years before the Maidan], furthermore he is totally unaware of the many years spent between the diplomacies of China and Russia to regularize the very long border that unites them, often years usefully because it brought China and Russia closer together in a concrete way, both Asian countries were very clear long before Maidan that the fundamental need in foreign policy was to end the claims of the US to lead the whole world. In fact, multipolar Asian politics was born in Russian and Chinese political circles as early as the early 90s, as a response to the fall of the USSR and the manifest Western aggression through the riots of Tiananmien Square, perhaps it escaped Western observers because they were soaked in propaganda and waterproof to reality, but sooner or later they will have to learn that not everything passes through the swamp city.
The author skips the 3 biggest events which happened during trump presidency in relation with Russia and China. 1) power of siberia pipeline started functioning and 3 more are expected. These pipelines cement russia and China partnership. 2) russia and China conduct joined military drills and started to fly their strategic bombers together in the Pacific 3)it seems russia will build land based early warning radars for China. Early warning radars are used for the detection of ballistic and cruise missiles at very long range. These are very sensitive military hardwares which are used by the US and Russia only. If China asked Russia to build those radars and Russia agreeded this can only say one thing: the level of cooperation and trust between the 2 countries is very high. This is also a clear indicator that China and Russia do not trust the US at all.
All in vain. US Military Space Command Centre with photonic precision lasers which can hit any target on the planet and in Space, makes all other military hardware obsolete. America won the race again and nobody can do a shit!
Thanks for the laugh! I needed today with our snow storm blowing here!
More countries should take on silicon valley cartel
Poland has some guts.
As shown in this article, the Biden administration has already set itself up to fight its first war, thanks to the false flag events on Capitol Hill:
The recent events on Capitol Hill are giving the Democrats the perfect catalyst to even further trample what little remains of Americans’ civil rights and privacy.
It will be a patriot act on steroids
Which means the Democrats and Biden were trampling on Trump, our democracy and all innocent Americans who dont have a dime to a bus ticket. After that we can only hope China will provide free noodles and Putin will give an innocent hard working American at least 1 gold dime of Russia’s gigantic gold resources.
I’m not convinced that Biden is going to be the next president. The activities surrounding this election are so abnormal that they indicate that there is a factional power struggle occurring. And that the outcome is far from certain based on available open source information. I have some non open source information. But it’s not enough to draw conclusions.
It’s unlikely that DC was flooded with troops because of some minor rioting at the capitol. It looks to me like they’re there to manage a restructuring of political power away from the status quo to a new structure.
People who think that Biden is going to implement worsening democratic fascism, criminality and corruption. Point to the military buildup in DC as an indication that it will be used to purge patriotic Trump supporters from DC for the purpose of destroying the American Republic. Led by the treasonous Joint Chiefs of Staff. Who signed a letter endorsing what the preponderance of evidence indicates is the Biden, dem’s and rino’s monumental election fraud against the US.
People who think the Trump is playing multi dimensional chess for the purpose of transitioning to a second term in office. Believe that the military buildup is to support mass arrests, draining the swamp and mitigating the election fraud.
Trump should have been able to clarify the election fraud using a forensic audit of the election ballots, voting machines and vote processing videos. The fact that he didn’t indicates that either he didn’t have support to carry it out. Or did have support and choose not to because he wanted to flush out as many traitors as possible before implementing other swamp mitigation options.
If he had conducted the audit. It would have left much of the swamp unidentified and entrenched. Which would have made his second term a dysfunctional uphill battle like the first term.
At this late stage what’s left is a non conventional nuclear option. Of taking drastic action to overturn the election fraud and drain the swamp. If he does have sufficient support in the security services for that. Then that’s what’s likely to begin to be rolled out over the coming days and weeks.
Sounds too much like Hopium. I’m leaning on Biden getting inaugurated and the troop deployment is just for show.
What part is hopium and why is it?
The rumors of Biden not getting inaugurated and that the troops are there to arrest Congress is what I consider hopium.
There’s no point in trying to block the inauguration. It’s just a ceremony. What really matters is the bureaucracy. If you can’t win them over then your coup fails. I would be very surprised if Trump managed to get his supporters to show up to start a fight. Rather foolish thing to do if you want to kick things off. It’s better to follow the insurgent route.
The massive 21,000 troop build up is just to show everyone that all is well and Biden and friends have consolidated his power. In reality, everyone sees the opposite is happening.
I agree with your assessment of a power struggle among the US ruling elites.
I don’t see where my comment contains hopium. It’s simply stating what’s happening. I’m not saying that one outcome or another is going to happen. I’m just pointing out that things are seriously out of whack and that I’m not ruling out either outcome.
If all was well there wouldn’t be the troop build up. First it was 6,000, then 10,000, then 15,000 and now 20,000. You don’t deploy 20,000 troops to the capitol and lock it down because everything is normal. You do that because there are potentially serious problems that they’re trying to deter.
Whatever Trump’s shortcomings may be. He’s an example of normalcy compared to Biden who is a brain damaged walking talking fraudulent disaster under multiple criminal investigations that make Trump look like a choir boy.
The altpress where patriots would go for a call to arms is overflowing with info to stay away from the capitol to avoid being set up for a false flag. I’m not aware of any credible patriot group issuing a call to arms to march on the capitol. Everything that I’ve seen is accusations that those issuing a call to arms to march on the capitol are deep state front groups setting a trap.
I think that Biden will face problems in Europe…first of all there some European countries such as Germany, Italy, France( all of them investors) that know the importance of maintaining close economic ties with the Eurasian Axis Russia-Central Asia countries-China…instead of feed beggars and failed states of East Europe…even others EU countries such Spain has sold Talgo trains to Russia, Kazajistan, Uzbekistan beside the tech improvements of the railway lines….other Like Denmark( Maersk) need the artic Route and Transiberian Railway to send goods to Pacific…unfortunately for them the liberal globalist agenda through NATO and Proxies ( Liberals, LGTB, Feminist movements, radical Islamism, NeoNazis gangs of East Europe) protect and serve the European control under Anglosaxon Axis….but Nordstream 2 have been the first game changer…
Russia whole strategy is based on not necessarily needing to do trade with EU countries. If trade occurs, fine, if not, fine, new Russian industries and products, born partially as a result of US&EU sanctions, are well positioned in Eurasian Economic bloc. EU can do whatever it pleases, but it will result in heavy opportunity cost to ignore rest of Eurasia.
This video can be watched by clicking on the link below the screenshot.
This video by a former CIA intelligence officer and a former West Point officer states that the Insurrection Act implementation was signed by President Trump on January 11, 2021. And is in the process of being implemented.
the robots in the empire have low expectations—burgers, cars, porn, coke….double mask them and require them to wait in lines to buy food in Antifa controlled Walmarts and they do…they will not notice the empire crumbling around them
Meanwhile Slumville’s long overdue civil war is reloaded and ready to pop in the mother of all failed state crack ups. By the time Creepy Joe is decently buried and his Trojan Kamel bunkered and gagged bankrupt USSA will be grateful for all the help it gets from Mr. Bear and the Dragon as the unwashed populous and disparate tribes hack each other to bits in the ongoing colored robolution. Grab the popcorn now while you can for the greatest dose of karma ever to be unleashed on miscreants and demons.
Whenever the word ‘Biden’ appears above, you need to mentally replace that with the Democratic Oligarchy. Biden isn’t deciding anything … he can barely think.