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SEPTEMBER 2020

Israel Needs to Prepare For Broad War Between US and Iran: INSS Report

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Israel Needs to Prepare For Broad War Between US and Iran: INSS Report

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On January 6th, Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) released its annual report, warning that Tel Aviv must prepare for a potential broad war between Iran and the US.

The report was delivered by INSS executive director Amos Yadlin to President Reuven Rivlin.

It had a new, special section, written in the last moment, focused on possible implications of the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s IRGC Quds Force leader.

According to the report, a vast array of challenges, leading with Iran, are confronting the country “against the backdrop of a continuing political crisis in Israel that will make it difficult to developed updated strategies.”

Key challenges before Israel in the future, according to the report will be that “Iran’s increased daring and determination in the nuclear arena,” as well as its attempts to establish a presence in Syria and other areas, could provide it with “new abilities to act against Israel.”

Another challenge is Hezbollah and its “attempts to obtain a large number of precision weapons and the efforts of Hamas to reduce the pressure on Gaza and to impact the terms of an understanding with Israel.”

It makes a mention of a potential peace deal with the Palestinian Authority, and it mentions that the Trump Administration should reveal its “deal of the century,” but no current Prime Minister candidates are campaigning for a peace deal, so that isn’t in the focus.

With a focus on Iran and its conduct, the report said that the results of Soleimani’s assassination remain unclear and that what exactly Iran could do remained in question.

According to it, the Trump administration presumably hoped to have dealt a decisive blow that would deter Tehran from attacking any US military positions.

Regardless of what the aim of the US was, the INSS warns that Israel should “uddenly and fundamentally shift its strategies in each and every national security arena in order to maintain its security in the face of warping challenges.”

The INSS said that an Iranian response on US military sites was likely, but that Saudi Arabia and Israel could also be targeted.

The report concludes that the Iran threat in a long-term is also significant, with it possibly working on a nuclear weapon, slowly and steadily.

A possible heavy escalation in Gaza are also possible, if Israel fails to reach some sort of long-term ceasefire with Hamas, the situation could deteriorate to levels not seen since 2014.

Finally, in terms of diplomacy with Russia, China and the US, the report said that Israel must establish itself as a “bi-partisan issue,” especially for the upcoming presidential elections.

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