The conflict in Syria is evolving into a more dangerous form.
Originally appeared at Interpolit, translated by James Cooksey exclusively for SouthFront
“Turkish troops could make a rapid rush with the tanks to the area of Russian S-400 air defense systems and overtake it,” said a former Russian journalist Yevgeny Kiselyov on the of radio station “UkrLife”, who’s been working in recent years in Ukraine.
According to him, Hmeymim airport is only three hours by tank away from Turkish border “Scenario that these missiles would fall into the hands of Turkey, who at any moment can make a sudden move into the Syrian territory is quiet possible,” — shared his fantasies Kiselev. Perhaps such “hypotheses” of political defector wouldn’t be worth considering, if the recent events in Syria haven’t shown how suddenly and dramatically situation can develop. How much it affects the most different reasons. Once Turkey crossed a red line, knocking Russian bomber out of the sky, no one can guarantee that she won’t try to do it again.
Also worrisome is the information published on Sunday by the German media.
1200 German troops could be deployed in Syria to fight “Islamic state” terrorists, writes DieWelt. According to the inspector General of the Bundeswehr Folkeregister this number of troops would be sufficient to support and maintain German air force and Navy in Syria.
It is noted that the imminent deployment of Germany forces in Syria may be the largest for the country’s army outside its own borders. Interestingly, German media doesn’t ask any questions on how this decision is coordinated with the official Syrian leadership.
One shouldn’t be afraid of the Turkish rapid tank rush, — says the President of the Academy of geopolitical problems Leonid Ivashov. — It is hardly possible. But you have to be ready for everything. It is necessary to continue support Syrian army with equipment and weapons. In some most important sectors, perhaps we should place our land forces. But only in order to introduce them into battle as a last measure, also for defense of strategic objects, such as S-400 missile system.
Additionally, it is necessary now (although it should’ve been done before) to make an official statement to the Turkish leadership that we reserve the right to answer any Turkish armed provocations.
But if we are talking about direct military invasion by Turkish troops in Syrian territory, President Erdogan needs to be reminded that nobody cancelled the Treaty of friendship and mutual assistance between the Soviet Union and Syria of 1980. In the case of third party aggression against Syria, we not only can, but even are obliged to respond in defense of an ally. And we’ll conduct accordingly.
It is now necessary to augment our naval force in the Black sea and near the borders of Turkey. That is, to respond to provocations not only with economic and diplomatic measures, but also with a serious military preparations.
— However, Turkey is a NATO member. Could’ve Russian actions against her on behalf of Syria mark the beginning of the Third World War?
— After the incident with the downed Russian bomber the Alliance in fact, denied Turkey support. Alliance’s top brass treat Russia-Turkey relations as a matter outside of “NATO’s business”.
This should be taken into account. And actively work with France and Germany. Reports of a possible German troops dispatch to Syria should be a signal for our diplomats and military, to agree on coordinated action. Europe does not want Turkey to drag it into a war with Russia. It needs to be assisted in avoiding this.
— Turkish army tank raid will be an overt act of aggression against the sovereign Syrian state, — said the Director of the Center for geopolitical expertise Valery Korovin. — If such an aggression happens, it will mean the end of the existing model of international law; in fact, it will become the largest post Second World War revision of the world. Therefore, it is unlikely that such treachery of Turkey towards Syria can be regarded seriously. An open attack on the Assad’s army will mean war with Russia. Russian troops are in Syria by invitation of the legitimate government of country. That can’t be trueregarding any other foreign soldiers on the territory of this country. So if Germany, even under the pretext of fighting ISIS, will introduce its military to Syria without the consent of Bashar al Assad, it will also mean aggression towards this country.
Regarding to the Turkey‘s war against Syria and Russia there can be two scenarios. Either Turkey will be thrown out of NATO, as an inadequate member of the Alliance, or NATO would have to engage in an open war with Russia. And latter is likely to lead to a nuclear conflict. Still, we know that USA is reluctant to fight the fight with nuclear powers; they even fear the countries that have the potential of acquiring nuclear weapons. Taking this into account, the scenario of direct confrontation between Russia and NATO in Syria is unlikely. USA rules the world, at least the part that is called the West, and therefore Americans are bestowed with responsibility to warn their allies, including such inadequate wild-card, like Erdogan, from unjustified attacks against Russia and other countries, risking of putting the world to the brink of nuclear catastrophe.
— Can German troops be deployed in Syria with the consent of Bashar al-Assad and the Russian governments?
— In this case it would mean the creation of a new antiterrorist coalition under the aegis of Russia. And then our country, no longer looking back at the US, will be able to draw countries that could be useful in the fight against terrorism. Germany might be useful in Pro-Russian anti-terrorist coalition. In large by establishing a precedent when a NATO member acts in the interests of Russia, and in some sense under the authority of Russia. Of course, this will cause a sharp criticism in the US and undermine NATO. Therefore, this scenario is doubly the one Americans will tolerate. But countries like Iran and even India could take part in the fight against ISIS in Syria under the authority of Russia. India, like Russia, is not interested in the global spread of radical Islamic ideas. And besides, frankly, is not averse to test their new weapons in combat.
Successful antiterrorist operations of the coalition under the aegis of Russia could be the first steps in building a new security model in the middle East, and in the future — all over the world.
— We are here to stay for a long time, – says chief editor of the magazine “National Defense” Igor Korotchenko. — There will be two of our bases now — naval and air. Various political loser’s “assumptions” that Turkish tanks could enter Syria is absurd.
The truth is that we, in fact, conduct anti-terror ops, which along with Syria and Iran are indirectly supported by France, who signed the intelligence sharing agreement.
Russia, being completely legitimate in its support of the Syrian army will seize this support only when most important areas of Syria are liberated from jihadists.