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DECEMBER 2021

The Saker: Is The Ukraine On The Brink Of War (Again)?

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The Saker: Is The Ukraine On The Brink Of War (Again)?

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Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at The Unz Review

Just a few weeks ago I wrote a column entitled “The Ukraine’s Many Ticking Time Bombs” in which I listed a number of developments presenting a major threat to the Ukraine and, in fact, to all the countries of the region. In this short time the situation has deteriorated rather dramatically. I will therefore begin with a short recap of what is happening.

First, the Ukrainian government and parliament have, for all practical purposes, declared the Minsk Agreements as dead. Truth be told, these agreements were stillborn, but as long as everybody pretended that there was still a chance for some kind of negotiated solution, they served as a “war retardant”. Now that this retardant has been removed, the situation becomes far more explosive than before.

[Sidebar: the issue of the Minsk Agreements brought to the fore the truly breathtaking hypocrisy of the West: even though Russia never was a party of these agreements (Russia signed them as a guarantor, not as a party), the West chose to blame Russia for “not implementing” these agreements, that in spite of the fact that everybody knew that it was the Ukraine which, for fear of the various Neonazis movements, simply could not implement these agreements. This kind of “in your face” hypocrisy by the West had a tremendous impact on the internal Russian political scene which, in turn, greatly strengthened the position of those in Russia who never believed that a negotiated solution was possible in the first place. In that sense, these agreements represented a major victory for the Kremlin as it forced the West to show the full depth of its moral depravity]

Second, it is pretty obvious that the “Biden” administration is a who’s who of all the worst russophobes of the Obama era: Nuland, Psaki, and the rest of them are openly saying that they want to increase the confrontation with Russia. Even the newcomers, say like Ned Price, are clearly rabid russophobes. The folks in Kiev immediately understood that their bad old masters were back in the White House and they are now also adapting their language to this new (well, not really) reality.

Finally, and most ominously, there are clear signs that the Ukrainian military is moving heavy forces towards the line of contact. Here is an example of a video taken in the city of Mariupol:

Besides tanks, there are many reports of other heavy military equipment, including MLRS and tactical ballistic missiles, being moved east towards the line of contact. Needless to say, the Russian General Staff is tracking all these movements very carefully, as are the intelligence services of the LDNR.

This is all happening while Zelenskii’s popularity is in free fall. Actually, not only his. Think of it: Biden stole the election in the USA and has to deal with 70 million “deplorables” while the EU leaders are all facing many extremely severe crises (immigration, crime, COVID lockdowns, Woke ideology, etc.). The truth is that they all desperately need some kind of “distraction” to keep their public opinion from focusing on the real issues facing the western societies.

What could such a “distraction” look like?

Phase one: the trigger

The Ukraine is unlikely to simply attack the Donbass. Kiev needs to stick to the “we are the victim of the aggressor-country” narrative. However, if past behavior is one of the best predictors of future behavior, we can immediately see what is likely to happen.

Remember how three Ukrainian Navy vessels tried to force their way under the Crimean bridge? What about the Ukrainian terrorist groups which Kiev tried to infiltrate into Crimea? And, finally, there are the many terrorist attacks executed by Ukrainian special forces inside Novorussia. The truth is that the Ukrainian special services (SBU and military) have been conducting reconnaissance diversionary operations in the Donbass, in Crimea and even in Russia.

Right now, both sides (Kiev and the LDNR) have officially declared that they have given the authorization to their forces to respond to any provocations or incoming fire. Just imagine how easy it is for either side to organize some kind of provocation, then claim to be under attack and to declare that “we had to defend ourselves against the aggressor”.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is some kind of Ukrainian provocation followed by a “defensive counter-attack” by the Ukrainian military.

Phase two: the attack

Over the past years, the Ukrainian military has received a great deal of assistance from the West, both in terms of equipment/money and in terms of training. Furthermore, in numerical terms, the Ukrainian military is much bigger than the combined forces of the LDNR. However, it would be a mistake to assume that the LDNR forces were just sitting on their laurels and not working really hard to achieve a qualitative jump in their capabilities.

The Ukrainian government is working on yet another mobilization (there were many such waves of mobilization in the past, none of them really successful), and considering the chaos in the country, it is unlikely to go better than the previous ones. If we want to do some “bean counting”, we can say that Kiev could theoretically mobilize about 300’000 soldiers while the standing LDNR forces number approximately 30’000 soliders (these are standing forces before mobilization). However, we must take into account that the Ukrainian forces are mostly conscripts whereas the LDNR forces are 100% professional volunteers fighting for their own land and in defense of their own families and friends. This makes a huge difference!

Besides, like all “bean counting”, this purely numerical comparison completely misses the point. That point is that the LDNR forces are much better trained, equipped, commanded and motivated. Furthermore, the LDNR forces have had years to prepare for an Ukronazi attack, In fact, both sides of the line of contact are now heavily fortified. Yet, and in spite of all this, the LDNR suffers from a huge weakness: no strategic (or even operational) depth. Worse, the city of Donetsk is quite literally on the front line.

Could the Ukrainian forces “punch through” the LDNR defenses? I would say that this is not impossible, and “not impossible” is serious enough to warrant a lot of preparations by the Russian armed forces to quickly intervene and stop any such breakthrough by the Ukrainian forces. Does the Russian military have the means to stop such an attack?

Yes, absolutely. First, all of the LDNR is literally right across the Russian border, which means that pretty much any Russian weapons system can “reach” not only into the LDNR, but even throughout the Ukrainian tactical, operational and even strategic depth. Russia can also deploy a classical Anti Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) “cupola” over the LDNR using a mix of air defense and electronic warfare systems. Russian rockets and artillery systems can be used not only as counter-battery fire, but also to destroy attacking Ukrainian subunits. Finally, the Russian forces in Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet can also be engaged if needed. As for Russian coastal defense systems (Bal and Bastion), they can “lock” the entire Black Sea.

The biggest problem for Russia is that she cannot do any of that without triggering a huge political crisis in Europe; just visualize what the likes of Antony Blinken, Ned Price or Jane Psaki would have to say about such a Russian intervention! Remember, these are the folks who immediately accused Russia of attacking Georgia, not the other way around. We are now all living in the “post-truth” era of “highly likely”, not of facts.

I have said that for years now the real point of a Ukrainian attack on the Donbass would not be to reconquer the region, but to force Russia to openly and, therefore, undeniably intervene. This has been a Neocon wet dream since 2014 and it is still their ultimate objective in the Ukraine. So what would a Russian counter-attack look like?

Phase three: the Russian intervention

First, let me ask you this: did you know that about 400’000 residents of the LDNR already have Russian passports? Is that a lot? Well, the total population of the LDNR is about 3.7 million people, so more than 10% of the population. This is crucial for two reasons: first, you can think of these Russian citizens as a kind of tripwire: if enough of them get killed, Putin have no other choice than to intervene to protect them and, in fact, Putin has made it clear many times that Russia will never allow the Ukraine to seize Novorussia by force or to massacre its population. Second, there are many precedents of countries (mostly western ones) using military force to protect their citizens. Examples include the USA in both Grenada and Panama, the Turks in Cyprus and Syria or the French in many African countries.

Next, in purely military terms, Russia has plenty of standoff weapons which could be used to disrupt and stop any Ukranian attack even without sending in a ground force. Not only that, but the Russian response does not have to be limited to the front lines – Russia could easily strike the Ukraine even in its strategic depth and there is really nothing the Ukrainians could do to prevent that. Still, I do not believe that the Russian counter-attack would be limited to standoff weapons, mainly because of the need to relieve the LDNR forces on the front line which will be exhausted by difficult defensive operations. In other words, this time around Russia won’t even bother to deny her involvement; at this point in time, this would be futile and counter productive.

The west loves concepts such as the “responsibility to protect” (R2P)? Good! Then Russia can use it too.

Of course, I am not naive to the point of believing that anybody in the West will be suaded by notions such as fairness or precedent. But the Kremlin will use this argument to further educate the Russian people in the true intentions of the West. This is especially helpful for Putin during an election year (which 2121 is for Russia), and this will only further weaken both the pro-western opposition (for obvious reasons) and even the anti-western “patriotic” opposition which will have no choice but to fully support a military intervention to save the Donbass.

Phase four: the Empire’s response

I don’t believe for one second that anybody in the West will volunteer for suicide and advocate for a military intervention in the Ukraine or against Russia. NATO is a “pretend” military alliance. In reality, it is a US instrument to control Europe. Yes, historically the pretext for NATO was the supposed threat from Soviet Union and, now, from Russia, but the true reason for NATO has always been to control the European continent. Nobody in the West believes that it is worth risking a full scale war against Russia just over a (relatively minor) Russian military intervention in the eastern Ukraine. However, once it becomes undeniable that Russia has intervened (the Kremlin won’t even bother denying this!), the trans-national imperial Nomenklatura which runs the Empire will see this as a truly historical opportunity to create a major crisis which will weaken Russian positions in Europe and immensely strengthen the US control over the continent.

We have all seen how the western politicians and presstitutes have invented a (totally fake) Russian intervention in the Donbass and how they said they would “punish” Russia for “not implementing the Minsk Agreements”. We can only imagine how strident and hysterical these Russia-hating screams will become once Russia actually does intervene, quite openly. Again, if past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior, then we can rest assured that western politicians will do what they always do: exacerbate and prolong the conflict as long as possible, but without directly attacking Russia. That is the purpose of the Ukrainian military, to provide the cannon fodder for the AnglioZionists.

Phase four prime: possible Ukronazi responses

Take it to the bank: “Ze” and the rest of the clowns in the Rada are no military leaders. Even Ukrainian military commanders are truly of the 3rd class type (all the good ones are either gone or fired). The first concern of the folks in Kiev will be to safely evacuate the western “advisors” from the area of operations and then to hide themselves and their money. For all the running around in battle fatigue and for all the hot air about super weapons, the Ukrainian military won’t continue to exist as an organized fighting force for longer than 48 hours. As I mentioned above, Russia can easily impose a no-fly zone, not only over the LDNR, but even over the entire eastern Ukraine. Russia can also basically switch off the power in the entire country. There is a very good reason why Putin declared in 2018 that any Ukrainian serious attack or provocation “will have very serious consequences for the Ukrainian statehood as a whole”.

Yet it would be extremely dangerous to simply dismiss the Ukronazi potential for creating some real headaches for Moscow. How?

For example, I would not put it past the Ukrainians to threaten an attack against the Operational Group of Russian Forces (OGRF) in Transnistria. This is a small force, far away from Russia, surrounded by hostile neighbors. Keep in mind that Tiraspol is about 600km west from Donetsk! Not only that, but if Moldova is not a member of NATO, Romania is. As for the current President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, she is both Romanian and deeply anti-Russian. But while all this is true, I think that it is also important to keep another factoid in mind: Chisinau, the capital of Moldova, is only about 300km away from the Crimean Peninsula. This places all of Moldova well within reach of Russian standoff weapons and rapid reaction mobile forces. For the Moldovans, any notion of attacking the OGRF in Transnistria would be really crazy, but for a desperate Ukronazi regime in Kiev this might be preferable to a defeat against Russia.

Of course, the Ukronazi regime in Kiev really has no agency, ever since the “revolution of dignity”. All the decisions about the Ukraine are made by Uncle Shmuel and his minions in Kiev. So the question we should be asking would be: would anybody put it past the Neocon crazies in the White House to egg on the Ukronazi regime in Kiev to further widen the conflict and force Russia to also intervene in Transnistria?

Some commentators in the West, and a few in Russia, have suggested that the “Biden” plan (assuming there is such a thing) would be to trigger simultaneous crises in different locations all around Russia: the Donbass, but also the Black Sea and/or Sea of Azov, Georgia, Belarus, Transnistria, Armenia, etc. The Empire might also decide to come back to Hillary Clinton’s plan to place a no-fly zone over Russian forces in Syria. I am not so sure that this is the major threat for Russia right now. For example, there is a good reason why Russia is split into military districts: in case of war, each military district becomes an independent front which can fight autonomously, support other fronts and be supported by the strategic capabilities of the Russian military. In other words, the Russian military can handle several major and simultaneous crises or even conflicts in her neighboring states. As for Hillary’s no fly zone over Syria, considering the undeniable reality that all of CENTCOM bases are under a double crosshair (the one from Iran and the one from Russia), it is unlikely that the US would try such a dangerous move.

[Sidebar: I am acutely aware of the fact that the anti-Putin propagandists are trying to convince us that Russia and Israel are in cahoots or that Putin is Netanyahu’s best buddy. I already addressed this nonsense several times (see herehereherehere and here) so I won’t repeat it all here. I will just say that a) Russian air defenses in Syria are tasked with the defense of the Russian task force in Syria, not the Syrian air space b) Syrian air defenses are doing a superb job shooting down Israeli missiles. These Syrian air defenses are forcing the Israelis to attack less defended and, therefore, also less valuable targets (say like a border post between Syria and Iran) c) there are now numerous reported instances of Russian Aerospace Forces driving Israeli aircraft out of the Syrian air space and, last but not least, d) the Israeli strikes are undeniably good for Israeli morale and propaganda purposes (the “invincible” IDF!), but the point is that they make absolutely no difference on the ground. In the near future, I hope to write an analysis showing that these rumors about Russia being sold out to Israel are part of a US PSYOP campaign to weaken Putin at home. Stay tuned]

For these reasons, I believe that the Empire will push the Ukraine towards an open confrontation with Russia, all the while making sure that US/NATO forces remain far away from the action. In fact, from a US/NATO point of view, once Russia officially admits that Russian forces did intervene to stop the Ukrainian assault, the main objective of the attack will have been reached: All of Europe will unanimously blame Russia and Putin for everything. That, in turn, will result in a dramatic deterioration of the security situation in the Ukraine and the rest of eastern Europe. A new “Cold War” (with hot overtones) will become the determining factors in east-west relations. As for NATO, it will reheat the old principle of “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down”.

Phase five: the situation after the end of the war

Again, if past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior, we can expect the Russians to do many things like they did in the 5 day war (really 3 day only) against NATO-backed Georgia in 08.08.08. For example, irrespective of where exactly the Russian military actually decides to stop (could be along the current line of contact, or it could include a complete liberation of the Donbass from the occupying Ukronazi forces), this will be a short war (long wars are mostly things of the past anyway). The Ukrainian military will be comprehensively destroyed but the Russian forces will not occupy major Ukrainian cities (just as they stopped short of taking Tbilisi in 08). As one LDNR officer declared in an interview 2015 “the further west we go, the less we are seen as liberators and the more we are seen as occupiers”. He is right, but there is something much more important here too: Russia simply cannot afford to rebuild the quasi totally deindustrialized Ukraine. The propaganda from their curators notwithstanding, the Ukraine is already a failed state, has been one for years already. And there is exactly nothing that Russia needs from this failed state. Absolutely nothing. The absolutely LAST thing Russia needs today is to get bogged down in a simultaneous effort to restore the Ukrainian state and economy while fighting all sorts of Neonazi nationalist insurgencies.

If they try to join the fight, then both Ukrainian Black Sea Fleet and the Ukrainian Air Force will simply vanish, but Russia will not launch any amphibious assaults on the Ukrainian coastline.

There are those who, on moral and historical grounds, want Russia to liberate at the very least the Ukrainian east and the Ukrainian south (the area from Mariupol to Odessa). I categorically disagree. It is all very fine and cute to say “Putin come and restore order”, but the people of the Ukraine must liberate themselves and not expect Russia to liberate them. Opinion polls in Russia show that most Russians are categorically opposed to a war (or a protracted occupation) and I see no signs that the people of the southern Ukraine are desperate to be liberated by the Russian military. This entire notion of Russia disinfecting the Ukraine from the Nazi rot is an ideological construct with no base in reality. Those who still dream of Russian tanks in Kiev or Dnepropetrovsk will be sorely disappointed: it won’t happen.

Thus, I fully expect the Ukrainian state to still exist at the end of this war, albeit a much weaker one. Furthermore, it is quasi certain that should the Ukrainian military attack Novorussia, then Russia would again repeat what she did in 08 and recognize the LDNR republics along with some kind of long term integration program. Civil unrest and even uprisings are likely, not only in the east, but also in the south and west of the Ukraine. Needless to say, the EU and NATO will go absolutely crazy and yet another “curtain” (maybe a “salo curtain”) will yet again split the European continent, much to the delight of the entire Anglosphere. At the end of that process, the Banderastan-like Ukraine will simply break apart into more manageable chunks which will all come under the influence of their more powerful and better organized neighbors.

As for Russia, she will mostly turn away from the West, in total disgust, and continue to develop a multi-polar world with China and the other countries of Zone B.

Conclusion: back from the brink, again?

In truth, all of the above are just my speculations, nobody really knows whether this war will really happen and, if it does, how it will play out. Wars are amongst the most unpredictable events, hence the number of wars lost by the party which initiated them. What I presented above is one possible scenario amongst many more. The last time when a Ukrainian attack appeared to be imminent, all it took was Putin’s words about “very serious consequences for the Ukrainian statehood as a whole” to stop the escalation and convince Kiev not to attack. This time around, the Russians are making no such threats, but that is only because Russians don’t believe in repeating threats anyway.

At this time of writing, there are serious clashes between the VSU (Ukrainian) forces and the LDNR defenders. Both sides are using small arms, grenade launchers and artillery systems. According to one well informed blogger, his sources in Kiev are telling him that:

“A while ago, an order came from the office of the old senile Biden to prepare the VSU for an offensive in the Donbass, but wait for the final go-ahead from the White House. At the same time, this source also said that similar military operations will be conducted in other countries where there are Russian interests, in order to deflect the public attention from the Donbass and weaken any support for the Donbass”.

There are many more such posts on Telegram, including pro-Ukrainian commentators spreading rumors about Russian mercenaries seen near the frontline east of Mariupol. We can already say that the informational battle has begun. Only time will tell whether this battle will turn kinetic or not. But right now it looks like we are “all systems go”.

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Just Me

Uki dumbass hohol a$$holes are mere pawns of US and Zionists who pushing this agenda to destroy the Don Bas and show it as a Russian defeat by the “great” NATOfaggots. Russia needs to increase support for the Donetsk People’s Republic who are far superior fighters than the NATOpansycunts.

Jens Holm

If You really like old days that much, You again should make room for Jews there. Donetsk as well as Kharkow had 30o% Jews.

I wish You luck. Tey acept sine like You, but they dont eat themcomment image

Hasbara Hunter

“WE ARE THE VICTIM OF THE AGGRESSOR-COUNTRY”

It is not only the UkroNazis who like the “Victim Role” this is the Game the AngloZioNazis played for decades…blame the Others to Create an excuse for the North Atlantic Terrorist Organization and thus the needed Support & Back up for invading other Countries…to bring Freedom & Hypocrisy…eehmm…I mean Democracy….

This is exactly why the AngloZioNazis have been trying to Provoke Russia to START a War for YEARS….

Jens Holm

High inflation. When we come with a coin, You come with a trucload of paper none will have unless its made into toiletpaper or coffee filters.

Didier Favre

Biden is back.

HiaNd

Biden; Where am I ?!!?

yes he is “back”…

omrizkiblog

Biden is a dead man tells no tale.

Just Me

Biden is a demented creep and a tool of Zionist deep state.

Jens Holm

He is not demented at all. Some people are like that and talk by auto when the brain is not there.

The deep state is created by You not even looking for free facts written right here as well as for Denmark free for copying at our libraries.

Its seemes more important what You can do with Your hairy 37 degree tool under Your bed blanket. Very good You cant send small as well.

Even rabbits are more open with, how they make thjemself happycomment image

HiaNd

“I am…aware of the fact that the anti-Putin propagandists are trying to convince us that…Putin is Netanyahu’s best buddy.In the near future, I hope to write an analysis showing that these rumors about Russia being sold out to Israel are part of a US PSYOP campaign to weaken Putin at home”.

Not only “at home” obviously, when “clove and light”,”fog of war”, “shylocracy” and plethora of similar retards on this forum pass their time on spitting on Putin and (indirectly on Russia) daily!
The main perversity is that they pretend to speak in Russian interest !
So when Russia explodes Ukraine as reaction on their aggression, they (those SOB’s) will shut (hopefully) their filthy mouth for good !

“Putin declared in 2018 that any Ukrainian serious attack or provocation “will have very serious consequences for the Ukrainian statehood as a whole”.
Putin is man of his word. He keeps his promises.
Can’t wait for Ukrainian attack to begin!

Dawn

That is not very good result for Russians.. There will be Russians dying in DNR/LNR armies, Russians dying as LNR/DNR civilians, Russian civilians dying on other side of the front (it is donbass territory), Russians dying in Ukrainian army and possibly yet more Russians dying in Russian army..
I agree – apart the last sentence..

HiaNd

Silly comment.
I have news for you: People do die in wars..
Trust me; it will be so fast that Ukrainians will not have time to die…not so many of them at least….

If not, DO EXPLAIN please ; how to make “an omelet without breaking eggs” ?!?
Russia will correct injustice form communism with the least victims possible !

Dawn

They do – but its not a thing to look forward to.. Ukrainian attack will be exactly that and i am sure, that not one civilian in the area is looking forward to the Ukrainian attack..
Lets agree to disagree on this..Its not the principal issue for disagreement..

HiaNd

‘but its not a thing to look forward to’
Oh yes it is!
It is pressing situation that must be resolved (not pushed aside forever).
The sooner (resolved) the better (than let it rot forever)!
Russia is in impasse with the Western world anyways, so….
It is not of the Russian making. It is something created against Russia and Russians.
Price must be paid no way around that solution to the problem.

Yes; “Lets agree to disagree on this.”

Jim Allen

You would benefit by listening to Ms. Dawn. Hothead !

The Objective

Russia is very unlikely to attack Ukraine. Because war is bad for the Russian economy, and Ukraine isn’t a pushover. The West has armed Ukraine to the teeth already. And in the event of any hostilities, they’ll send more arms to Ukraine and slap merciless sanctions on Russia. They’ll weaken Russia like never before. I don’t think Putin will ever fall into such a foolish war. Ukraine itself is unlikely to do anything that’ll provoke a Russian invasion of their country.
I think Ukraine should go ahead and complete its order of 48 drones from Turkey.

Jens Holm

I disagree in most of that. Ukraine mainly had old stuff and has not been capable to produce tanks and missils themself even everything for it already was there.

They also has no nukes. They had.

I see the same rhetoric for Poland. Their plan by Russia was to invade Denmark. should they je´keep their old stuff for that. No way. Should they rearm themself and add them to Nato and partly EU by that.

Yes of course. Russians should not expect those Poles not even able to defend themself against their new enemy, which never was a friend.

By the liberation Russia should replace the Neocolonialisme of theirs with friendship and changed and new relations in matters which by nature – and market – makes sense.

Russia right here in history books are very visible. They are fossils. But that goes fir the liberated ones too. It makkes no sense asking or even demanding for revenge. If so Ypu too often is back to square one in a reduced version and a paria.

Parst of Ukraine and Belarus dont see that. And by the way its the same for Armenia blocking for unfairness in 25 years is almost as UN still pay palestines since 1949.

The Objective

You’re funny bastard aren’t you. I just mentioned the word “Kuffaar” and you get so angry. Are you not a Kaafir? Kuffaar is the plural of Kaafir. It simply means “disbelievers”.
The world isn’t going so great for you guys now is it?

HiaNd

First I thought that you ere en idiot…
On second thought I realize that you are very prejudiced, ill informed person.
Your comments are ridiculous (as always)
You are so prejudiced, biased about Russia,(like NEOCON’s) that I doubt that you were ever right about anything on Russia !
Maybe only when you make mistake…

Jens Holm

Thats right. If You start with false everything after that is true for him.

Jens Holm

I agree. They are like rooster chickens and might do like this. But statistics unfortu´natly says 2 of 3 crimes are made among family and affiliated to them.

No omelets is better then twocomment image

Stawrogin

I would add two aspects:

1.) The Ukrainians will have likely drawn the wrong conclusion from the Nagorny Karabakh War. They will set on drone warfare (Turkey is already deliver drones) and hope that Russia will be idle.

2.) Erdogan will encourage the Ukrainians to do so. He is possible aware that the Nagorny Karabakh Scenario is not appliable, but he will hope to become a broker to end the war between Ukraine und Russia and to increase his influence in the region including Crimea.

Dawn

one aspect: Ukraine has no sovereignty to speak of – ALL decisions concerning the war with Donbass and relations with Russia is made in Washington and Langley.. What “Ukrainians” and Erdogan thinks – is not really matter of importance..

HiaNd

Yes… but with German-French veto power (in case something in US decision goes directly against European interests)

Dawn

Not really.. Viki Nuland said it loud and clear: “F**k the EU” . French and Germans have no influence in Ukraine enough for any veto to take place.. Germany is itself occupied USA colony and France with Macron is a joke..

In fact, USA would very much liked French and Germans (Europeans in general) to get into limited military conflict with Russia – with no veto involved..

HiaNd

Wiki Nuland …Wiki who???!?
F*ck Wiki Nuland !
US is the ruler of the planet but as long as Germany is the main administrator of the Europe.
So US is the big BOSS as long as Germany is in charge and their interests (in Europe) respected.

“Germany is itself occupied” (for reason) I agree with that…But to call Germany “US colony” that is way to exaggerated !!
Colony doesn’t ask her gold sent back !
Colony doesn’t refuse rising up in spending for military!
Colony doesn’t refuse canceling “North Stream 2”

Etc… NO Germany is most definitively not “colony”.
Colonies are slaves used and abused.
If Germans were “colony” they would already fight war against Russia….(because US prefers so)

Dawn

There is more types of colonies :)

With the gold: As far as i remember Germans were first refused to see their gold in fort Knox, were delivered some 10% of their gold and it was not theirs gold..
Although amount might have been changed in the last few years (i dont follow it closely), i doubt they have taken more than half from the fort Knox..

HiaNd

There is more types of colonies :)
OK which “type” is it than?!

Listen I have impression that your counter argument is kind of very weak…
My point was that they have asked their gold BACK !
You didn’t even bother to touch North Stream 2
Or German military spending !
Both of the subjects are of the EXTREME importance for US !
Not to mention that Germany didn’t support some of US foreign policies at all !!!
I don’t remember if it was attack on Libya etc etc.

NO they’re not colony! (being occupied they are not free either …of course)

Jens Holm

I think the Trump USA understand it now. We can give them limitations too. Biden seemes more traditionel and maybee more, then we need.

Jim Allen

No, her argument, and counter argument are strong.
She knows what she’s talking about.
Perhaps “colonies” isn’t the best term, but vassal works, or “wholly owned subsidiary.” The West fear’s Germany, it knows it can’t defeat the Germans should they become unruly again. They had to talk Russia into doing it the last time, and that won’t happen again.
The Globalist world de-population agenda, and one world Government is weakening the West’s military capabilities to a point it soon won’t be capable of defending itself. Once existing military assets, are destroyed, the West has no war production to replace it. It’s so far behind in technology, it’s unable to modernize, upgrade the aging hardware it’s depending on. Of 11 Carrier Strike Group’s, US is hard pressed to keep 1 on station in the Middle East. Most are in their home port under some kind of repair. Ford is still some years away from being operational. LCS burn when hit, F-35 is, and forever will be the epitome of the “sunk cost fallacy.”
How the Globalists intend to advance their agenda’s, defend themselves, and protect any gains while forcing their will on countries that possess the capabilities to defeat the very best the Globalist’s can muster easily is a mystery. The Globalists have depended on the goyim to handle their war production, research, and technology. Supply the manpower to invade, occupy, control countries, steal resources, engineer, and build world class military hardware. In their infinite genius, the Globalists have dumbed down the goy, brainwashed them into unteachable, yet compliant automaton’s without an original thought, and now murdering their goyim in huge numbers. Using many mass murder practices, the healthcare system, the weather is now weaponized, weapons of mass destruction, bio-weapons, chemical weapons, our food crops are weaponized. (GMO) Electromagnetic Frequency Radiation. Certain frequencies are deadly to humans, and all other life on earth.
Gamma Radiation leaking uncontrolled worldwide into the water, and airborne at several locations. Each leak is itself an existential threat to all life, and there’s at least a half dozen sites.

Jens Holm

You mainly has NO IDEA about what You are talking about. Now go back to Your collapsed KOMBINATE amd KOLKOZE – non thinking systems. It seemes You fit in there and are collapsed Yourself too.

In its best its highly biased.

You of course totally ignore, that the alternative is to be with fiascos of You kind. Why should we.

Are we evil because we go to schools learning not to be parrots, educate us, find Our skills and work hard – AND IT EVEN PAYS OFF.

And true. The magis things are things are produced for the market. If things cant be sold, we stop it. If they do it pays off.

Dbt is same thing an d vital for Kapitalisme in the part, which says its used for machines or educations, so we produce more then the debt and åay back is.

And yes, the base for most things are not private owned companies. Its also not state own companies. BOTH too often er ineffective and drowned in nepotisme, butreaucrasi and family relations are more important, then doing the best job.

So we hire in the best for the jobs and in many jobs fx like here in Denmark WOMEN makes 40% of the GDP.

80% of the companies in Denmark are owned byu shareholders. You can buy shares here too and be owner. I am and in two ways: When You work You pay into the state pension fond – You cant even avoid it. That big one dont have boxes of gold but invest it in compåanies, so it pays of with profit.

That State Pension is so You can live relative well and the same for all as well as it doesnt matter i You will die if You are 68 or 100 years old.

The other one is my private one because I most of the time also has paid in to fond. Im together with many people having semilar jobs to mine and its possible, because Im middleclass.

The state pension is shareholder all over the world. In the orivate one of mine I have invested in fx Simens Windpower, which is German but ptroduce her in Denmark as well as being stockholder in several Norweigians oil and gas companies. The rest is Danish – BUT – they are around the world. The biggest one is Maersk line which You migt know. The second is Novo Nordisk, which are the biggest Insulin producer of the whole world.

So the state as well as I put money in many baskets to play safe. Bad to loose all money no matter if they are few or many.

By that we are not vassals or colonies. Danes are shareholders and partowners in the western economy, but the other countries are shareholders here and also are producers here.

So its much about we schrach others back, when they schratch Ours.

‘I could understand if we are or were plundered. We dont see that being 10 to 15 pr capita in the world making 57.000 dollar dollar. Our system also is rewarded being number one i corruption, which says we are lower the others but has corruption.

Our health and hospital sector is high about the USA one for the half price. Are we then vassals and colonies. I dont think so. That includes the Corona, where we certainly are much lower then many in the western Economy. Thats because we decide Our Own destiny. We have no Trump here as well as Clintons, Obamas or Bidens.

But they of course are big and vital influensers. We mainly are happy for that. GET IT. We are learned in Denamrk to add and subtract. By that USA makes plus, because they also help us, when we are in big problems. HELP EACH OTHER
.
We also are plus in trade with USA and export advanced things to them and they export not advanced things to us. There is nothing strange in that. We are experts not only for USA in many advanced things in a very specialized marked. In the otrher hand we still has a big animal production, which fx need a lot of their soya beans.

I do agree there are too many weapons in the world. It makes no sense we can kill each other 5 times with nukes a.s.o.

But I can only see others are very agressive themself and all says “tehy defend themself”

Here today I wonder how Iran would be if they madeagriculture refiorm, plows and better healtcare for trhe money they us for missiles. iF they were less agressive themself USA and others might not be that agressive toi them.

Jens Holm

Maybee they has been excudes by learning such things in school, but they have internet now, but dont update to the real world of now.

SureUSA are the really hostile one.

Jens Holm

Sure. Russai was an Amarican colony and their protactorate before and under WW1. Even so they were allowed to deny Marshall help and reamin poor and collpase the seond time within 100 yers. USA never has blamed them that. Not even Russians themself. Taxpayers even support palaces for their Leaders as if they print dollars themself toocomment image

Dawn

When i will be interested in opinion of the broken trollbot – i will let you know..

Jens Holm

That ill be nice. Thank You. Normally this I dont think this is a sugardating site. Remember Russian gold firrst.

Stephan Williams

This tasteless, over-the-top block is being built for a Russian Oligarch – NOT Putin. Anyone keeping up with the crap being splashed about by the manure spreader MSM knows this.

Jens Holm

Ha ha

Jens Holm

I have hopes for her, but I agree in Your reflexions. Much as she never has left her balcony in severak things around the world – even she has.

I also kind of smile. If Trump was there most secrataries already was replaced several times.

Jens Holm

Germany and for that matter EU are no colony of USA. But we are in the same western Economies and many also are in Natoi with them.

We by emmigration is more related and even agreements we try to make good relations, which pays off. Its much as You dont understand Our world is kapitalistic, which poays of. We Outsource things. We share things for poractical matters. We try the best to malke ageemenets in writings, which before that is debated a lot, where we sometimes are nice to each other, then we shoulkd be(TRump is a good example).

I make a good illustration. The new gadget on Mars has 4 important tools danish made. Thats because we re omang the best for making small things work very well. Here we also send of many danish produced minisatelites

BUT BUT BUT

The rest of it is made by others, because they invest in it and maybee even are more clever then danes in it. We respect that, but we are no colony because of that. comment image

Germany has Angela Merkel as one of the best Leaders in the whole Europe. They also has an economy which acr´tually works well. So they have know how about things.

Even I now and then disagree with here, she mainly are well coordinated with the rest of us by elections and structures for it as well. She is trust and relky for us.

You dont get it and never will. Where You come from such things are not even invented to be usefull for all of You. But You should not blame us for it in mistrust and ceratinly dont hope us be like You and with You.

The best might be to implement some of the good things we do. Its very easy for You. We develloped it and it took time and also has mistaken in it, but the big and sometimes clumsy dromedar with two hary tits do fly.

Many dont do that and the more poor and not so well organized might collapse or decline a lot during the small recession added hard with Corona. Coroian unfortunatly was no beercomment image

Just Me

Ukraine is not a country. It is an eternal integral part of Russian history and soul. Kievan- Rus.

Jens Holm

comment image

HiaNd

1)Yes
2) Erdogan, US, UK, Poland, Germany, Sweden etc. will encourage the Ukrainians to do so with their lip service “support”….and make those stupid dispensable Slav’s fight odious Russian Slav’s.
In the best scenario there is !!
Slav’s killing each other for the benefit of their (Western bastards) interests !
The problem with the scenario is that Russia will CRUSH and invade Ukraine very quickly!
So much so, that stupid NATO retards will be flabbergasted with the power shown by Russia.
From that moment onward the world will be separated on Eastern and Western hemisphere…

The Objective

Turkey isn’t interested in mediating between the Kuffaar. But it’ll sell weapons if Ukraine asks for it. Ukraine already revealed plans to buy up to 48 TB2 drones in October 2020. If they buy these drones, then the LDNR had better start praying.
Turkey will not encourage Ukraine to fight just for it to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. That doesn’t even make sense.

Jens Holm

Be a Sandnigger You blody heathen.

I found a picture. Is it You? comment image

The Objective

That’s your father’s picture. LOL

HiaNd

Your comments are ignorant, ridiculous (always)
Ukraine produces those Turk drones since your backward Turkey doesn’t know how to produce even the simplest airplane engine!
So they are fishing for Soviet know how in Ukraine ( just like China few decades ago )

Jens Holm

I didnt know that.

HiaNd

Jens if you have black children with your white wife, maybe…. you should be little suspicious.

Jens Holm

We paint them every day

Jens Holm

We paint them evey day and dont choose:)

The Objective

Have you forgotten the beating Armenia received? The same awaits the rebels facing Ukraine. So many of you talked tough during that war. But when things became clear that Armenia was losing to Turkey’s drones, you changed gear to insulting Erdogan and calling him all sorts of names. When SouthFront released the list of drones and loitering munitions shot down by Armenia, we saw that about 85 to 90% were Israeli drones or loitering munitions, even when Turkish drones did the most damage. A retired Armenian general even said they manage to hold back the Turkish drones for four days using Russia’s EW equipment, but the Turks figured it out and penetrated with little resistance.
I’m very confident that should another war break out in Ukraine, the TB2 drones would certainly kick some ass. Just pray there’s no war.

HiaNd

I didn’t talk “tough” at all !
I was regretting that Armenia didn’t ask Russian assistance for peaceful solution!
COMPROMISE !
Since Armenia is only 3 million population.
Such small population shouldn’t start the wars ever !

Turk drones in Ukraine will be annihilated, exterminated !!
Remind me of my words after the war!
The rest of your bullshit and Turkey saga I will not comment

The Objective

“Turk drones in Ukraine will be annihilated, exterminated !!”
Okay, we’ll see what happens. But I hope no war breaks out. War is bad.

The Objective

I think if Ukraine would buy up to 50 Bayraktar TB2 drones, they’ll inflict great damage on their adversaries. In fact, they are very likely to recover lost territory. Russia still hasn’t found an effective anti-drone system yet. Ukraine may take advantage of this Russian weakness.
They’ll be killing pro-Russian forces like playing video game.

Dick Von Dast'Ard

The Anglo-Zionists are going to lose an awful lot of face with Ukraine, they have got far too invested in a win there, and that ‘win’ is highly likely not going to occur.
If they go all-in they could almost certainly lose everything and if they walk-away (after building it all up to an actual war where the Russian militarily directly intervenes) they then look extremely weak.

HiaNd

You have point there.
Too much Anglo Saxon blabbing of mouth that will make them look weaker afterwords…
Hollywood and media propaganda make them win their wars, who cares about the facts on the ground…

Jens Holm

Typical for Heavenms SAKER propaganda.

A few things are highly correct but the MInsk are intensions for at least some kind of structures only.

As most people can see parts of the member has done well, but others has big problems partly made by themself.

Partly is because those people in Belarus as well as Ukraine were forbidden to learn to decide themself. They also was bankrupt because of the deny for normal influence and changes.

Thats how it is. USSR by Communists only replaced the people in the top eith other people of same kind in the top. The corruption and the oligarcs already was there. There was not even a sober taxsystem not even for free money to Moscow to devellop the many plans, they had – if they had planes.

So now they are back in Ukraine as well as Bellarus, where they were in the civile wars in Ukraine and Belarus was knocked hard into Russia, where the borders was moved west and partly was repopulated and partly moved all the Poles. T

He Jews of course wasnt in both oblasts and are now blamed fo being in Israel and USA as a very good excuse for everything. The people there forgot those Jews were the only educated people there, which where able to know and decide all the things, we actually has in most parts of the west.

But unfortunatly SAKER has some “pravda” too. The changes to the better is a much longer and more difficult proces then most people would expect. It alsop forget we try to help them by loans, investments and advice. There hardly are any signs for improvements of any kinds.

The agressive attitude by Russians here also makes the same results as after WW1 and WW2. So many died there for absolutly nothing and many in the contrasts between Communisme and Nazisme.

It only can be solved by borderchanges by voting and de-.escalation.

Here I would say Russia as well as “Shenko” in Belarus create artificial propaganda threats and talk down Our intensions by we should be agressive.

We think its the opposite. If the Russians see Ukraine and Belarus as Russians, they should threat their own people better.

We have just seen the same propaganda against us in Caucasus. We just want normal trade, where their very low devellopment is made higher, so they can effort to buy Our stuff., But that seemes not implemented in the Russian narrowminded world.

I any time is writer as a private perso´n about it. I dont want Russia back as Neovcoloniaslist againt all the little ones. R ussia dont know or dont care about what went on around the Baltics and even was there long time before the Vikings became known as “Russ” (if thats true).

Thats what we have now., but the Baltics are decimated and even too too smal because of WW2. I will remind Russia too them and Poland Twice and the Nazis only once. Parts of the rulers were germans. They are not there. The jews has been killed. Russians has infected them with Russians being a state in the state with no communications with the local ones. Even atomic facilities has been installed with no knowlege to the locals.

So they are smal wrech, where its very difficult to make vessels again.

I take it again. We as EU and Nato has no intensions in including Russians and their lack of culture semilar to Ours. But we allow us to kind of reward people living there decide their ow Leadership by sober elections and try to learn to handle it. They mainly only handle small parts.

Things are not as bad as SAKER descriebe even there are not much devellopment. 2/3 of Ukraine is doing fine even most things are kind of old days. he main problems are in zones in the 1/3 part.

Just as Russia we should have free speach about it. Russia forget all the time west even dominating has lost a lot there. We even are blamed for supporting nazis. So whats the point??

Should we have helped Hitler to take Russia?? I say no way. Did USA do that?? No way. Vital help paid by Russians was send to USSR even they were blody Commics. And when there was no more money USA and UK escakted the help for billion of dollars.

Was itr paid bad. Did they demand that. No they didnt.

Did USA offer Marshall help. Yes he did. But Stalin – Your mass killer hero – said no. He wanted unproductive slow production orchestrad with full propaganda all the way west of Berlin.

So we also has to

Dick Von Dast'Ard

New York and The City cabal did help Hitler to try and take Russia (USSR) through finance…

Which is what WW2 was all about.

An orchestrated financial gangster attack to steal the Soviet Union land, resources.

The ‘help’ was simply hedging bets to which way it would go.

Jens Holm

No it wasnt.

Its very well agreed by all looking for reasons for WW1, that Germany antime was the agressor.

When they lost its also agreed France punished them too too hard, so normal democrasy in a relative open Germany for it had no chance for roots.

The results was as too often strong man solutions or anarchy was porefared from many. And those many was different right wings, which became Nazis and Bolsjevics mainly inspired by Stalin.

Your version for what happend next is fsr out too. Who the hell learn people like that and who the hell are unclever raised and believe somethin g like that.

You seemes to have forgotten, what the Nazis took first. Tjekkoslovakia, Poaland, some Balkans, Fance, Belgium, Holland, Lictenstein and next Norway and Denmark.

Tey also was big traders to USA and many there had emmigrants from there.

Og I foprget the Britts. Wernt there a special relastion betwen USA and GB?? I think so.

I also remeber most parts of the world collapsed by Wall Street in 1928, whicvh was before Hirtler. That made big unimplyments in USA as well, so any trade was better then none.

One of the biggest tradepartners was Russia and Stalin. Hitler never could have expanded like that without Russia AND Russia could not expand themselves with no tech and trade with the Nazis.

Barbarossa showed it fast and very well. The germans didnt get OIl, Coal, Nikel and a lot of food. Russia lost income and about 40% of its production capacity.

Your bias in highly incorrect. It do males sense big countries also trade a lot with each other. Here Schact made a kind of artificiual miracle, where the rest of the world could by stuff cheep. But it also was because the germans were very effective then most others and fx gave everybody jobs even they made long term invetments above the German economic realisme.

I take it again. Germany did not steal Ruissian ressources. They could efford to buy them with money, which had value. Russia didnty care about that and not even because they expected and feared the Nazis woukd attack them.

You of course also ignore the Molotow Rippentrop solution. Not only Nazis expanded in those days.

Your version is typical cold war propaganda based on Bolsje´visme by Stalin and the ones, which are not 117% woth us are against us. One more in his doctrine is very visible by You. The closest friends, families and affilitad are Your worst enemies and should be eliminated.

–ooOoo–

But You are right about one thing. In kapitalisme its about producing thing people want and need to the ones, which can pay. Here Germany was a kind of ground zero but had a lot of unused educational capasity, so Americans as well as the rest of us prefared to trade with them regaining.

But we also bought what we needed and had to offer from Russia. You here of course totally ignore Stalin exported vitals for the Russian people even so many had lack of everything in food and clothe as well as iron fx would have increased the Russian production and wellfare in all levels.

But Russia in 1930 BEFORE Hirtler was made into relative har war production mode. In 1935 it was hard war mode production, where many not even were alowe dthe place, they worked.

USSR had no market and by that prduced as ordered but often didnt have the tools for it. o many died by bad or none wellfare. Millions worked as slaves for only food and clothe in worse conditions then Americans slaves in Gulags since 1921 as well.

Stephan Williams

If you truly believe what you have typed, you’re either a propagandist or an ignoramus. WW2 was about crushing the independent spirit of Germany while stealing everything – including huge factories and moving them to countries )ews controlled. The NS had removed jews from their positions of malevolent influence – banking, media and government as soon as they were elected. That was the reason for WW2. The )ews declared war on Germany in 1933 from the front pages of the international newspapers they owned. Look it up. They were incensed that they had been booted out of their profitable rapes of the German people.

Jim Allen

Also propaganda. There’s many narratives created to bury, and confuse the factual history. To project blame for the crime’s against humanity, the theft of resources, and genocide practiced by the Zionist Khazar criminal Banking Cabal at The City of London, carried out by the Cabal’s wholly owned subsidiary, US Government, and NATO States.
By your choice of narratives, you’re a pitiful troll. Sold out for a few shekels.

Golda

Another EXCELLENT article by The Saker . . .

Jens Holm

Yerrhh – Most of them are in old days with old manipulated data. He re most things are not highly incorrect but just biased – HIP HIP.

omrizkiblog

The brain-dead spineless ghoul Biden & co are so great in creating chaos because for them, the chaos is the order.

So this war will surely happen because history repeat itself! Fun facts, USA is fucked! Civil War bombs are ticking closer to Kaboom! Ukraine is over! There’s no future for kiev regime it is dead-end! EU is impotent and literally had no real goal development, they’re badly fucked things up for sure. In short, the western civilization will have to cease to exist and the faster the better.

My man, Let the war happen!

The Objective

This guy’s propaganda just gets worse and worse. I wonder if his mob still trusts his information. I can only see a lot of praising for what Russia can do. Well, if push came to shove, we’ll know for sure. In the meantime, I think Ukraine should increase its Bayrakta TB2 arsenal to help with the fight.

Jens Holm

Thats whats wrong with all of You. Instead of everlasting wargames for money You hardly have, Ypou should play tic tac toe. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpmGXeAtWUw

Jon

Putin is not in any way controlled by Israel, but he knows Russia is better off cultivating good relationships with Israel. Likewise with Turkey.

Putin obtained his objective in Syria: airbase and seaport. He doesn’t have to invest Russian resources in restoring all of Syria. His deal with Turkey and USA and Israel can stand.

The Ukraine situation is totally nuts. War should be avoided. Saker’s observation that Russia can’t “win” even though it can easily prevail militarily is a good point.

Russia should take advantage of the Biden groups tendency to overplay its hand and finish NS-2, make common cause with Germany and Turkey and Israel, and continue to weaken American influence in Eastern Europe and ME.

jaredX

All about preventing any relations with europe and block ns2

Tommy Jensen

Exactly the development I predicted. What people fail to under stand is that Obama is back in the front seat but leading from behind.
With Obama on top at world leadership we are now going toward global diversity, a liberal Iran, chinese nanny states and with green energy finally saving the planet from the capitalists.

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