Saudi Arabia declared its willingness for military intervention in Syria, as its affiliated countries confirmed on their intention to cooperate with Saudi Arabia in this regard while the United States welcomed Saudi remarks. Saudi Arabia is witnessing tensions after that the Syrian army broke the terrorists’ four-year-long siege of the towns of Nubl and Al-Zahra in Northern Aleppo province and cut off one of the main supply routes of the militants. Over five years of bloody clashes in Syria and billions of dollars of oil revenues that Saudi invested on toppling the Syrian government make the Syrian crisis as a matter of honor for Saudi Arabia and its allies.
Especially after the heavy losses inflicted on militants by the Syrian army units and the inability of Turkey to ignite the northern fronts in Aleppo, Saudi confirmed in official announcement its intention for military intervention in Syria. It seems that Saudi Arabia is seeking for a direct military intervention after the defeat of Saudi’s militant factions, the so-called moderate opposition that played the rule of Saudi’s proxies in the Syrian conflict, especially after the Syrian Army’s control over towns, most notably Ratyan, Hardntin, Tal Jabin, Mayer and Kaffein. UAE and Bahrain, in a desperate media campaign announced their readiness for military intervention in Syria with Saudi Arabia. It is noteworthy that Bahrain is facing since 2011, protests against the suppression of the Bahraini regime after the killing of dozens of protesters. On the other hand, Amnesty International considered King Salman’s first year in power as a dark year for human rights. Analysts question Saudi Arabia’s political intentions in light of human rights violations in the Gulf States that devalue Saudi’s claims on helping to establish democratic government in Syria. In the view of many political analysts, Obama’s upcoming visit to Jordan and his meeting with King Abdullah II is part of Saudi Arabia’s attempts to destabilize the Syrian southern border, however Saudi Arabia is facing three tight restrictions for military action in Syria:
1. The economic aspect Oil prices decrees –after that Saudi Arabia contributed in lowering oil prices– put the Gulf States in severe economic situation. For the first time Saudi Arabia and its allies have a budget deficit not to mention the likely drop in economic indicators, which confirms that any Saudi military intervention in Syria will lead to heavy economic costs on Saudi Arabia that may not be able to afford its consequences on Saudis.
2. Military and strategic aspects Saudi and its puppet governments military forces already are involved with the Yemeni conflict that become war of attrition, which reduce the possibility of any new military intervention of the so-called “Arabic coalition”. On the other hand, militants’ terrorist activities in Syria upraised Syrian Arab Army strategies and its experience. The failure of international coalition airstrikes led by the United States confirms the ineffectiveness of military decisions based on aerial attacks. Therefore, it is likely that the lack of experience of the Arab armies against the Syrian Arab army will fail Saudi Arabia in reaching to its goals.
3. The political and international dimensions Sources within the Saudi royal court revealed king Salman’s mental situation and his attempt to injure himself, meanwhile Saudi Arabia’s statements seem irresponsible towards the regional issues. There is no room for doubt that the Saudi military intervention will face regional and international violent response including from Russia. The Saudi irresponsible remarks forced Bahrain to retreat from previous statements on this matter, which raises questions about Saudi Arabia’s political wisdom.