Is Israel Preparing a War on Hezbollah in Lebanon? Would Russia Expand Its Presence to South Lebanon?

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Is Israel Preparing a War on Hezbollah in Lebanon? Would Russia Expand Its Presence to South Lebanon?

Written by Elijah J. Magnier; Originally appeared on ahtribune.com

Tension is silently mounting between Israel and Hezbollah on the Lebanese border, where frenetic preparations are taking place, under the watchful eyes of both belligerents. There is an unusual state of alert, yet hardly visible to the naked eye: Israel is increasing its patrols on the borders, raising the deployment of officers and soldiers in their static military positions on the Lebanese borders, and Israeli jets and reconnaissance drones are more frequently violating the Lebanese airspace. For its part, Hezbollah is also improvising new positions to cover any gaps on the front, inland and underground, increasing the level of alert and recalling its well-trained and experienced Special Forces (Al Ridwan units) from Syria to take preventive positions facing Israel. But is a third war possible today between Hezbollah and Israel after Israel’s failure in 2006? Why is the tension increasing just now?

Is Israel Preparing a War on Hezbollah in Lebanon? Would Russia Expand Its Presence to South Lebanon?

Twelve years after the war that ended in August 2006, the drums of war are silently beating in the south of Lebanon. Since that date Hezbollah has increased its military capabilities and has stockpiled long-range accurate strategic missiles, solid fuel to ensure a rapid launch (built to its needs-high explosive warhead). Moreover, Hezbollah has acquired anti-ship missiles that can close any Israeli harbour and hit any ship and oil platform in the Mediterranean. There are strong indications that Hezbollah has anti-air missiles in its arsenal and that its militants are trained in using these in air raids.

Is Israel Preparing a War on Hezbollah in Lebanon? Would Russia Expand Its Presence to South Lebanon?

Also, its Special Forces have gone through all kinds of warfare in Syria, from open desert to urban warfare, fighting ideologist jihadists indifferent to casualties (al-Qaeda in Syria)- plus dealing with car bombs, guided armed drones, suicide attacks… accumulated significant military experience any army in the world would dream of acquiring. Hezbollah has worked very closely with a classical army (the Syrian army), a Superpower (the Russian forces deployed in Syria), with irregular guerrilla groups (Iran’s allies) and alone in dozens of battles- throughout these seven years of war. Hezbollah’s strategic missiles are installed along the Lebanese-Syrian borders, inside the mountain chains, and under the ground to avoid Israeli bombs and also keep the action away from Lebanese residential areas.

Is Israel Preparing a War on Hezbollah in Lebanon? Would Russia Expand Its Presence to South Lebanon?

Hezbollah’s Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has said, if Israel decides to go to start a war, he “will import the next war into Israel” by sending ground forces to attack settlements and cities close to the Lebanese borders. He promised to bomb Tel Aviv, the chemical storage depot at Haifa, the Dimona nuclear facility and research centre in the Negev, and all military airports and institutions. Sayyed Nasrallah is determined to take off the gloves, remove all taboos and use all Hezbollah’s military power and capability in any future war.

The list seems long and impressive: this is an organised irregular group that counts tens of thousands of members among its ranks. It is indeed considered one of the strongest armies in the Middle East, and its performance in Syria – a territory 18 times larger than Lebanon – proved its ability to defend and liberate territories beyond Lebanon. But is that track record enough to dissuade Israel from attacking Hezbollah?

Is Israel Preparing a War on Hezbollah in Lebanon? Would Russia Expand Its Presence to South Lebanon?

Well informed sources said: “With Donald Trump in power, it is an opportunity. Israel could never dream about having a similar one in the future. Trump is ready to give Israel anything it needs for a war. He is sending US troops ready to die for Israel (as US Lt. General Richard Clark has said) and will spare nothing to end what he considers Iran’s ‘ grip on the Lebanon’”.

The “regime change” goal in Syria has failed after 7 years of war. Today there are two countries still occupying the north of Bilad al-Sham: the US in the north east and Turkey in the north west. Following his meeting with President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, Donald Trump gave Syria to Russia who guaranteed the protection of the Israeli borders and the occupied Golan Heights. Indeed, the south of Syria (except for the ISIS-controlled area in Quneitra) was delivered to the Syrian army with little resistance. The US ordered the closure of the Military Operations Centre in Jordan – known as MOC  and responsible for training and offering military assistance to jihadists and rebels to defeat the Syrian army – allowing the government in Damascus to regain control over its territory.

Is Israel Preparing a War on Hezbollah in Lebanon? Would Russia Expand Its Presence to South Lebanon?

Moreover, the Kurds in al-Hasaka and Deir-ezzour provinces – responsible for the protection of the US occupation forces in north-east Syria – have initiated, with the US’s consent, a conciliatory dialogue with the government in Damascus. It is not unlikely that President Assad will offer the Kurds a place in the future Parliament and Government with some form of decentralised rule for the northern provinces.

These are an indication that the US is not willing to stay very long in Syria and is looking for a way out sooner or later. The safety of Israel has been an important issue and the US believes, if the Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar Abadi is re-elected, that its forces in Iraq may be better positioned than in Syria. However, the presence of a strong Hezbollah undermines the security of Israel. Israel’s security cannot be fully guaranteed with a powerful Hezbollah, considered by both the US and Israel to represent ‘Iran’s armed agents’ on its borders.

Sources believe “since the US gave Syria to Russia, it is not unlikely that the same step will be repeated in Lebanon, but only following a destructive battle between Hezbollah and Israel”. Russia would become the guarantor of Israel security on its northern border in Lebanon as in Syria.

Is Israel Preparing a War on Hezbollah in Lebanon? Would Russia Expand Its Presence to South Lebanon?

“Russia wants the war to end in Syria and is ready to liberate Idlib with or without Turkey’s consent. With the return of Idlib to the control of the central government in Damascus, Turkey will accept a reconciliation between the militants (non-jihadists) and the Syrian army. Moreover, as Russia protected the occupied Golan Heights, it can protect the borders between the Kurds and Turkey. Therefore, to ensure this hot spot of the Middle East is conflict-free, Lebanon may be expected to follow the same path of the Golan Heights and see the Russian military police on its borders”, said the sources.

“Today, (the pro-Saudi ex-Prime Minister of Lebanon) Fuad al-Sinura is not in power, as in 2006, and therefore, Saudi Arabia cannot stop Israel from destroying Lebanon to teach it a strong lesson (in their minds) for fully embracing Hezbollah. Israel will be financed and supported to start such a war. However, there is no doubt that Russia is not part of the planning and is not in harmony with Israel and the US against Hezbollah. Israel can find any excuse to start an attack and trigger a Hezbollah response to initiate a wider destructive war supported by Middle Eastern countries. But Russia, eager to see the end of all conflict in the area, would intervene to stop the war and to be present south of the Litani river, a longstanding Israeli wish”.

Iranian General Qassem Soleimani said, “74 members of the Lebanese Parliament are today in favour of the ‘Axis of the Resistance’ following the last parliamentary election”. This comment is not expected to be swallowed easily by Israel and Saudi Arabia, who consider that the entire Lebanon is under Hezbollah’s control.

The question remains: with the lack of readiness  of the Israeli home front, and in the light of Hezbollah’s state of readiness, and its capability to hit any target in Israel, will Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu accept this adventure without any present-day guarantee of submitting and defeating Hezbollah and forcing its withdrawal from the borders, risking a repeat of what happened 12 years ago?

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  • christianblood

    (..Is Israel Preparing a War on Hezbollah in Lebanon? Would Russia Expand Its Presence to South Lebanon?..)

    Yes, Russia should expand its presence in Lebanon, provided they are invited by the Lebanese government!

    • jakoDELETED

      Why Russia “should expand its presence in Lebanon”?
      What was in there for Russia as clear advantage or profit worth trouble and expenses ?
      To have another military base close to other 2 they already have?!

      • as

        If Israel give it too much trouble it may just give a signal it could be.

        • jakoDELETED

          What are you talking about?
          ” too much trouble” to whom?
          To Hezbollah?!
          After 2006 nobody believes in that nonsense.
          Israel can’t win this war.
          Also Russia has nothing to do with all that.
          Problem with all you guys is that you don’t see Russia as world power but some private extension of Iran and Hezbollah which they use whenever they feel like

          • as

            To Russia and no Israel is US levers. Not exactly vulnerable weakness but weakness nonetheless. I get that if there’s jew lobby in the Russia as well but Russian armed forces themselves aren’t that naive that the US or Israel themselves wouldn’t go elaborately harming them and their country interest. They make sure to subtly let the Israel know that they’ve noted their action in their drone strikes and various sabotage they faced against them.
            There’s no interest to put Israel into their crosshair for Russia but if they give them enough reason to in example continued to test their AD system in place of American and US themselves pressure them i wouldn’t be surprised if they put Israel in check via Lebanon.

          • jakoDELETED

            Just go away from me!
            I have headache reading your crap !
            I can’t even understand your gibberish theories!!

          • as

            I’ll make it simpler.
            Israel is no enemy of Russia but it is an ally of the US. They’ve turned blind eye towards hostile act in support of the US for now but that just may change depending on how much they pushed the Russian to the edge.

            In example they continue using drones and other probe to test Russian AD network which is if it indeed found weakness in it and shared the intel with the US they may just compromise the whole Russian national security as a whole. That’s unacceptable no matter what political excuse they can have.

          • jakoDELETED

            “They’ve turned blind eye towards hostile act in support of the US ”
            What “support of the US”?!?
            It is US who is Jew servant !!!

            You still don’t get it that invasion of Iraq, Syria and ISIS are ISRAELI PLAN?!!?
            From what planet you are coming from?
            US are here to be Jew servants and protect Jew interests only !
            They have NO fucking reason to be in Syria in the 1st place if not for Israel !!
            The rest is your usual gibberish where you try to sound knowledgeable, sophisticated and all that CRAP and actually you are not knowledgeable, sophisticated at all!
            Just leave me alone.

          • as

            That is what’s the Russian perception on the whole and that’s why they never explicitly point their finger to Israel despite glaring evidence it have.
            ISIS, Syria, and Iraq were of multiple interest not Israel alone. You can count Israel and US as one but Qatar, Saud, Emirate, Jordan, and Turkey all complicit some number of elements in Iraq and Egypt may as well.
            You seem to have quite narrow looks at the whole things.

          • Promitheas Apollonious

            “It is US who is Jew servant !!!“

            I think you confuse the excuse, (israel) and who created it and for what purpose, with who is controlling who. They both are servants of the ones who created them and easily expendable if the situation rise.

          • jakoDELETED

            Listen I was making the point who was in charge because he was dead wrong of US being senior partner.
            Jews are in charge when, it comes to Syria not US.
            US has spent trillions on Jewish wars in Middle East .
            And now you come widening the topic to play smart ass on me for free…
            I know all that you are saying .
            But that was not the topic of the conversation.
            Even if ” both are servants” Jews are in CHARGE to US.
            That’s all I have to say to you or him.
            As for your conspiracy theories (who is really on top) you are trying to sell yours theories are as good as mine or anybody else’s. I’m not interested in them at all..

          • Promitheas Apollonious

            Globalization centers, are in charge yes, not the way you express it as I dont know what you know or how you think. USA inc. as it is registered in UNs, is a colony and the military arm of NWO, but they dont do what ever they want, they follow orders and direction, or they are force into follow orders and direction.

            israel in the bigger game it is expendable, maybe not as real estate, but as population as far as the decision makers go, dont seem to bother them much. Just right now it be very inconvenient something like this to happen. More damage than profit and wars are very profitable, because the reward is power.

          • jakoDELETED

            Yes I can see that you belong to some conspiracy theories and I will repeat that I’m not interested in topic.
            I have my own theory and find it pointless to talk about those things because it can’t be confirmed with the proves . The same is with yours theory as well.
            So all this is empty talk.

          • Promitheas Apollonious

            I dont think you understand what is happening in the back scenes, or began also to understand, the long run strategy of what the russians apply not only in ME but globally along with their allies.

          • as

            I know. But their bases in Syria would put them in the Israeli crosshairs for a long time to come. At least the forces stationed in it with the equipment they have.
            What other reason it steps into Syria if not for it’s global strategy ?

          • Promitheas Apollonious

            again see the whole picture and dont localize the problem and you have your answer.

          • as

            That’s why i said if they pushed the Russian to the edge. That can’t happen just so locally.
            I see it that the Israeli would keep aiding US if it aligned with it’s interest even if their target is the Russian. The Russian themselves see Israel as potential ally as was the Chinese because Israeli would always sell the USA or anyone else if it’s for it’s own benefit.
            Both know they’re snake they may can handle to their own benefit.
            Now again i said if in example they keep pushing it by as you had known flying drones into Russian AD unit operated areas to test where the flaws that they can compromise would the Russian really stand still without showing any hostilities towards Israel ? When it had known they may in coordination with their self declared enemy USA ?

    • Tudor Miron

      Russia should not overstretch. Syrian intervention was swift and unexpected for most but in reality it was well planned and thought out operation. I expect my country to continue careful treading of global affairs without knee jerking and waisting Russia’s resourcese to solve problems created by others. After all, what Russia does is showing the way – different to anglo-zio world order. But one should not expect too much from Russia – remember we were in terrible situation just 20 years ago. Those who actively contrubuted to collapse of the country are still very much in power. Roughly 70% of elites are still from Eltsin’s era.

      • christianblood

        You made some good and factual points but at the same time, the empire of evil should be denied to attack Lebanon, Iran and Hezbollah! May be Russia and China should strengthen those country’s armed forces and give them political support so that the empire won’t rush to attack them! In any case, if the empire is let to destroy any country it wishes to destroy, Russia will be the next one on the list!

        • Val Shadowhawk

          The ‘Empire’ i.e. zionist Project ala FAIL, would not last a jew York minute against Russia. She has very advanced weaponry and skilled technicians at the helm to deploy them.

      • S Melanson

        Agreed. The article’s author seems to believe the answer to ME problems is Russian military police. I disagree. Hezbollah sees itself as fully capable of taking on the IDF and would likely question Russian military personnel in Lebanon considering Russia questioned presence of foreign troops in Syria including those invited by Assad.

        If Israel is intent on attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon, then let them fight it out and live with the consequences. Israel has been a lightning rod for violence and tragedy for 70 years and any just resolution to this mess seems as far off as ever. But eventually, there will come a day when events coalesce to finally bring closure to this Zionist project, even if it means death and destruction on a wide scale.

        Russian peace keeping would only delay the inevitable and so let it happen I say. It is time to bring a conclusion to this Zionist project.

  • Tudor Miron

    ” US gave Syria to Russia”(c) – US was not in a position to give something that they didn’t have.

    • Barba_Papa

      Maybe in an ideal world, but in international politics there is a massive gap between what major states do and said ideal world. And if the US were to step back from Syria by letting Russia have it (how is Syria for Russia to have as well?), that’s a major victory still.

      • Tudor Miron

        What I was saying is that US was cornered in Syria and is gradually forsed out. They didn’t give anything – it was taken from them.

    • BL

      If you thought that statement was delusional wait until you watch this Ameritard:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04zCXz_Vhuk

      It literally takes an Ameritard level of delusion and ignorance to claim “The US won in Syria”. It’s basically the psychological defense mechanisms kicking in to prevent reality from shattering their self perception of being invincible.

      • David Pryce

        His haircut and jacket doesn’t really give him an IQ
        WAR is over, US just can’t decide on its exit plan. Resistance axis won

  • jakoDELETED

    We are all looking forward Hezbollah kicking Jewish butt even much more than the lats time!
    It would create opportunity for Assad to return SAA to Golan to say “Hello” to the Jews…..

    Hezbollah didn’t need Russian baby sitting in previous war. No reason they would need it now.

  • World_Eye

    Jesus Is The Greatest, Death To America, Death To Israel, A curse upon the Jews! , Victory For Christianity!

    • Promitheas Apollonious

      are you sure you represent the alleged god of love, with what you saying? Not that I care one way or the other just curious.

      • World_Eye

        Yes I am sure

        • Promitheas Apollonious

          and then some wonder, why the world is so fucked up.

          • World_Eye

            Ask the world why it is.

          • Promitheas Apollonious

            no need to ask any one, to know.

    • Ziggy

      You curse the jews but their the people who created Jesus. Don’t get me wrong, I hate jews and israel but to kiss a jewish fictional characters feet and then say you curse them makes me think your probably either lying or just fucking stupid. Fuck shit, what am I thinking? Your comment is completely irrelevant to the article, of course your retarded

      • World_Eye

        They are the people that created WHAT. pufff

  • Jamie9260

    The US. give Syria too Russia? It seems too me that the US. and a handful of others project failed in Syria, They were not prepared for Russia coming and being so effective period!

    • as

      4 country combined cruise missile salvos ended up so impotent that they quickly buried the whole thing.

  • Promitheas Apollonious

    israelis, never learn to stop while ahead and I do hope, this is the last mistake, they be allowed to do.

  • potcracker2588

    hahaha…and again…..told u so………..Only The Agenda counts..

    A One world government with jerusalem as its capital under jewish satanic leadership.And they are all in to it…including USA,RUSSIA,UK,EU,CHINA etc….
    Which countries don not recognize the illeagl satanic entity called isarel? yes those countries are beiing and going to be hammered.Iran,syria,iraq,jemen,NK,malaysia,lebanon….

    Russia is doing exactly what they are ORDERED to do, each day, each month…just as the USA or the others above mentioned….thats orders from their JEWISH SATANIC MASTERS.period-

    and cut the infidel bs about GOOD USA or GOOD RUSSIA or BAD USA or BAD RUSSIA you donkeys….
    there is no good or bad, just THE AGENDA.

    Wake up..open your eyes and ears…….remember the IRAQ-IRAN war in the 1980´s??????
    Who gave IRAQ(saddam hussein) the weapons to wage war with iran???
    It was USSR and USA, at the height of the so called “cold war”…….

    Who sells the USA ALL of their rockert engines????????????
    RUSSIA u morons

    Who sells the USA all the enriches uranium it needs to power their dozens of nuclear plants????
    RUSSIA u morons…..

    wake the fuck up…..USA and RUSSIA are two sides of the SAME COIN.
    donks

    • Tudor Miron

      Keep going trolly. You need those shekels don’t you?

      • Brad Isherwood

        Even if it’s AI….it’s mostly true.
        Russia let’s US kick their ass up and down the block.
        Russia and China are backed into Eurasia. ../China has some Construction in Africa,
        A few Navy ports/Oil terminals.

        Putin went Chicken neck. …won’t full fill the S 300,Yak 130,Mig 31 contracts with Syria.
        He’ll. …Russia’s got dozens of Su 27 which Syria could upgrade. ..even invite China who builds Su 27.
        So ya…..Turks aren’t leaving,….US not leaving. ..
        Saudi and French whoreing away in Syria.
        I want to cheer for Russia and Iran,…
        They both fainted before Trump/Nato/Israel.

        Russia and China are buying up Gold like Crazy ,
        So….in the End. ….Syria is chump change, ….Maybe Iran too.

        Money,money, money…

        When 2 Tribes go to war. ….Money is all that you can Score… /Franky goes to Hollywood -abridged.

        We are in War vs Hezbollah /Iran now.
        Question is…..will Putin step aside while grinning idiot… offshore banking Mullahs get pounded by airpower.
        If you live in Iran…….move East.

  • greatndit

    USA send troops willing to die for israel…
    what would they get ?
    did american people know about this ?

  • Ivan Freely

    I would hate to be those UN peacekeepers in Southern Lebanon right now. Stupid fools think they’re untouchable because they wear a Blue Helmet.

    • Promitheas Apollonious

      that is why, is also russian police there.

      • Stephan Williams

        You’ve confused southern Syria with southern Lebanon. There are no Russian police in Lebanon.

        • Promitheas Apollonious

          you right. Very long day and night.

  • russ

    … “the presence of a strong Hezbollah undermines the security of Israel”… actually it limits Israel’s ability to brutalize it’s neighbors.

    • purplelibraryguy

      Po-tay-to, po-tah-to. Israel feels insecure to the extent that it lacks ability to brutalize its neighbours.
      Come to that, so does the US.

  • russ

    I am really impressed with the Markava tank shown in the picture above. I didn’t know they were so versatile. It’s kind of hard on the road though doing these maneuvers.

    • as

      The picture is misleading. When it happened the tank driver say he want to do the barrel roll.

      • russ

        He came up a little short…

    • Garga

      Haha! Silly me, I thought it’s some kind of very strange static defence position, perhaps part of Bar Lev line. To me it looked like late-19th-century battleship guns.

    • BL

      It was an excellent image choice, a perfect way to start the article. Also very foretelling about the end result of such a war.

    • Assad must stay (gr8rambino)

      lmao

  • RichardD

    Lebanon has no air force to speak of, and their air defense is also pretty limited. Which is why the evil Jew leg breaking baby rapers violate Lebanese air space with impunity on an almost daily basis. I’m sure that the Russians, and probably others, like the Iranians and Chinese have looked at changing this and that the Lebanese government and Hezbollah have talked and worked with them on it. It all takes money. And Lebanon doesn’t get $3.8 billion a year like Israel does.

    The Syrian war is drawing in a lot of money and equipment. And until it’s wrapped up east of the river and on the Jordan border. Lebanon will be a lesser priority. That may change as the Syrian war is won and resources start being allocated for a Palestinian protection force. Which can be integrated with Shebaa Farms and the occupied Golan reclamation as well. Egypt and Jordan will also be important considerations as well. Because they border the Palestinian territories directly.

    What should be avoided is a repeat of the 67 and 73 wars where Israel came out ahead. This time around Egypt and Syria shouldn’t be expected to go it alone. And should be part of a multinational effort using a UN mandate. That could include Turkey, Iran, Russia, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Syria and others. So that if there are hostilities with the Jews, they’l be up against much more formidable and prepared forces that they won’t be able to prevail against.

    This should also be structured in a manner that is supported by most Americans. So that there is no public support for the US getting involved on Israel’s behalf. Which using a UN mandate of the type recently suggested by the UNGS will help insure.

  • frankly

    It is an interesting argument that goes back and forth visa vi US, Israel, Russia, Zionists. To go with Russia is subservient to the Zionists is to give up any hope of a better world. Some of the arguments are compelling, but I need some hope.

    When the Russians accepted Crimea back into their homeland how many died? When the Ukronazis finished their US sponsored coup how many were burned alive to complete the nasty deed? After Raqqa was liberated how many returned? How about Aleppo? How about Libya, Iraq? They built a beautiful, useful bridge to Crimea, what has the US built? Iraq is not even close to repairing their electric grid to pre war levels. What does Israel build except to torture Palestinians? Walls, hmm no wonder Trump needs some walls.

    After 17 years of occupation why is the #1 export from Afghanistan still opium and increasing every year? Why does Russia feel threatened and the US doesn’t? Why are US weapons so expensive and flimsy and Russian’s potent and reasonably priced. If Israel is calling the shots why did they capitulate to the SAA in southern Syria after hosting ISIS for 7 years?

    So I think Russia does have some Zionist influence, but somehow the Russian input gives it some heart, some sanity and some morality. All that is missing from the US input. Anyway do not feel terribly strongly for or against any particular entity if they seem at all concerned with common people. The elitist, we are better than ye, leaves me cold. The US forces others to corroborate, Russia slowly earns allies, in the end the west will still want to fight, but our only weapon of dominance will be the nuke, use them or not, our end of dominance is dawning.

  • Tom Tom

    WHY did the Israeli submarine surface on the road??? O’ the humanity!

  • Icarus Tanović

    To decentralize Syria? Nga, zhu crazy?

  • Icarus Tanović

    Oh yeah Idf, just bring it on. This time we will bust your face better than last time you checked! Cowards!

  • Lena Jones

    Twelve years and not a single jew bullet fired at Lebanon. Looks like the ‘balance of terror’ that the Hezb established with their 2006 victory over israel is still working fine and dandy. All the training in the world won’t cure jewish cowardice.

  • John

    I can concur with you on this analysis and I think this could be the reason why Western countries are pulling themselves to sanction Russia coz it has proved itself too powerful before the American eyes.

  • The Farney Fontenoy

    If there were a conflict, even brief, during a ceasefire, Russia could be asked, or may offer, to insert a presence along the Israel/Lebanon border, even setting up observation posts, permanently stopping Lebanon ever mounting a ground operation into Israel…. this benefits only Israel, so it would make sense they would start a conflict for the sole purpose of drawing the Russians in to create a buffer.