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Iran And Azerbaijan On The Brink Of War But It Is Unlikely To Boil Over

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Iran And Azerbaijan On The Brink Of War But It Is Unlikely To Boil Over

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Hostilities between Iran and Azerbaijan reach unprecedented heights.

Written by Paul Antonopoulos, independent geopolitical analyst

For weeks, Iran has been concentrating troops and heavy vehicles on its border with Azerbaijan as tensions continue to mount. Participating in military exercises on the Azerbaijani border include several infantry, special forces and armored units, as well as several fighter jets, helicopters and missile systems.

The “Conquerors of Khaybar”, the name given to the military exercise, is a reference to a battle fought by Muhammed, the founder of Islam, against the Jews in 628 CE. This is an obvious reference to the close relationship Azerbaijan has with Israel. Not only does Azerbaijan acquire Israeli weapons, many of which were used against the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, but Mossad has a legal right to operate in the Caucasian country as part of their spying and espionage acts against Iran.

In response, the Azeris announced joint military exercises with Turkey between October 5 and 8, dubbed “Indestructible Brotherhood 2021.” Officially, the maneuvers are to improve cooperation and coordination between the land forces of Turkey and Azerbaijan, but it’s also a supposed message towards Iran that Azerbaijan is not alone. In fact, Azerbaijan is so confident that a lawmaker even quipped that Pakistan’s army would invade Tehran if it made any hostile move against Baku, while another lawmaker threatened to cut Iran’s tail.

Tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan have been building for months now, with no signs that relations are improving or stabilizing. On October 5, Azerbaijan closed down the office of the Iranian spiritual leader in Baku, a significant move when remembering that only Iran, Azerbaijan, Iraq and Bahrain are Shi’te-majority countries out of the 50 Muslim-majority countries across the world.

Closing down of the Iranian spiritual leader’s office in Baku was in response to Iran closing its airspace to the Azerbaijani Air Force. This is a major move as flying over Iranian airspace was the most direct route to carry military reinforcements and supplies to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic from Azerbaijan proper. Both Azerbaijani territories are separated by Armenia’s Syunik Province, hence why the Iranian flight route was needed. However, for Azerbaijan to reach its detached autonomous region, it now must take an extended bypassed route over Georgia and Turkey. The move by Iran now adds extended travel time, something that would be catastrophic if a war broke out.

Moreover, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, tweeted on Sunday: “Those who, under the illusion of relying on others, think that they can provide security, know that they will be slapped soon.” The tweet also comes as news emerged that Azerbaijan will soon acquire a batch of Israeli-made Arrow 3 anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense missiles.

After rhetorically supporting last year’s joint Azerbaijani-Turkish invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh in a gross miscalculation on the intentions and purposes of the war, Tehran is now exerting pressure on the ongoing attempts to close the trade corridor between Iran and Armenia. Azerbaijani authorities recently announced that Iranian trucks heading to the Armenian capital of Yerevan, in addition to paying a transit fee of $300, will not be able to travel at night, but only during the day. Following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, Azerbaijan captured a part of the road that links Iran to Yerevan, hence why Iranian Deputy Transportation Minister Kheirollah Khademi visited Armenia on Monday to express Tehran’s financial and technical support for a 400-kilometer transit road linking the Iranian border crossing at Nordooz to Yerevan, bypassing Azerbaijani-held territories.

From the Iranian perspective, assisting Armenia now is also a part of their conflict with Israel, a country that Yerevan has never had good relations with, unlike Baku. According to Tehran, Israel has four bases in Azerbaijan. Even though Israel denies having its own bases there, the Jewish state actually considers Azerbaijan as a part of its peripheral strategy – establishing alliances with countries close to enemy states.

This flurry of exchanges between Iran and Armenia, despite the former strongly backing Azerbaijan rhetorically during last year’s war, is undoubtedly due to the complex dynamics created by Turkey’s pursuit of an ideologically syncretic neo-Ottoman and pan-Turkic foreign policy. The Turks, along with cultural and linguistic affinities, are also motivated to strengthen their relations with Azerbaijan so they can collaborate in the energy field and establish trade corridors with Central Asia.

The confrontation between Iran and Azerbaijan can easily involve not only the Turks, but also the Israelis in a more meaningful way beyond weapon sales and intelligence exchanges. Tehran is taking a huge risk by threatening war with Azerbaijan as it could reignite the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and draw in Armenia, Turkey and perhaps even Pakistan.

At the same time, despite all of Azerbaijan’s bravado and confidence after defeating a weak Armenian military with the assistance of Turkey and Syrian mercenaries, it is unlikely that Ankara will allow a war to occur as they recognize and understand Iran’s military might. While Baku is full of arrogance after last year’s victory, Turkey is struggling to keep its economy afloat while maintaining its various military operations across the region. For this reason, it is unlikely that a war between Iran and Azerbaijan will breakout as Turkey, which has de facto control over large parts of the Azerbaijani military, will not allow its ally to provoke a war in the same way they did with Armenia. Unlike Baku, Ankara understands that Iranian power is incomparable to Armenia’s.

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block

Contradictory information. If true it would make sense for Iran to host a military base on Armenian soil.

Glock

You can’t “host” a base on someone else’s territory. Armenia can host an Iranian base on it’s soil is what you meant. But this is unlikely to happen since then that would trigger American savages to demand regime change.

block

Fine genius. Despite understanding my intended comment, you can play ultra commenter here on SF.

Congratulations.

block

BTW, my guess is you are a pathetic diaperhead or five “eyed” degenerate to que to a specific comment. Typical british or allied arrogance.

Glock

lol, you carry a lot of anger and frustration in you. A normal person would welcome being corrected but a common Israeli agent is only capable of rage and weak insults. :D

Peppe il Sicario

You got it Glock! Block has been outed a deep-cover Israhelli troll tasked with disturbing and antagonizing on this comment board. Reminds me of a similar f*ckhead that used to go by the moniker Arklight on the blog Syrian Perspective up to a few years ago.

Cromwell

Who gives a rats arse what American savages demand?

edit

“on it’s soil”

*its not it’s (it’s = it is)

farbat

i would hardly call it a war if iran would start it would end after one day so lets not make more fuzz about these idiots than they themselves already do

Jnoub

What do you think Shias of Azerbaijan would do? They hate how the government is close with Israel, you think they’ll help Iran against their government?

farbat

i repeat it would hardly be a war for iran and this isnt anything compared to saddam it would be over in a day iran can hit basically even all of turkish assets which could even slightly be able to threaten iran in a day and in a matter of a week turkey would be in the iron age so the issue is just stupid from their part i say this for ages these idiot turks are just delusional they never stand a chance even if they take usa russia pakistan baku zionists all of nato and all of the sunni states behind them they still wouldnt win they should simply learn from the likes of saddam instead of repeating the mistakes he did because iran today is so powerful the enemies of iran cant measure irans real power still and are perplexed

Last edited 21 days ago by farbat
Attila

Do it. gay mullah lovers. Mosquito buzzing again bzzzzzz bzzzz run everyone

farbat

what some still dont understand is that iran has the highest capacity of striking power it can fire 1000s of missiles in an extreme short time and no military in the world could survive this first heavy missile shower not even nato combined can fire as much as iran can in such a short time so irans firepower is just causing irans enemies to be mistaken as soon as they see it directed towards them and let me remind you baku did 6 exercises and iran didnt say a thing and iran did 1 exercise and they started to whine like a cowardly rat they ran into hiding

Last edited 21 days ago by farbat
Jnoub

What do you think about Iran’s airforce? Iran is amazing at creating technology and reverse engineering, what do you think about their fighter jets? Iran has some old American jets, and they haven’t really upgraded them, you think they’re hiding some really good jets from everyone? Iran can just upgrade the f14, but they haven’t, they have to be hiding some jets, it just doesn’t make sense if they haven’t.
You think Iran airforce will stand a chance against American airforce (dogfight between jets)?
Also do you think Iran air defence will be able take on showers of missiles and air strikes if NATO and Israel gang up on Iran?

farbat

iran went on to use asymmetric ways of tackling big air formations for example irans karrar drones are existing in a high speed super sonic variant which is made with an emp detonator which can even damage military electronic systems specially the sensoric and engine so large formations might end up dropping from the air like stones

farbat

america knows this issue quite well which is why their f35 even 200 of those were just for show they couldnt do much with it because again there isnt going to be any dog fights or such iran will down it all before it comes even close the radars are to good to try to avoid them and the ground systems are way to saturated to avoid them so the usa cant even deal with the a2ad which iran has let alone work towards fighting f14 in long range sniping because that is what would happen no dog fighting but long range fire by f14 against awacs and such while giving recon data for interceptors to hit the f15 f16 f18 f35 or whatever

Last edited 20 days ago by farbat
farbat

there is a low possibility of direct jet fight because those jets of iran will basically work in a whole different role for them to get involved in such fights so the american jets basically would have to try to avoid incoming missile fire incoming supersonic suicide drones and alot of other stuff coming into their direction while f14 snipes basically all the support they have in the air

farbat

upgraded interceptor role of supersonic karrar will be among the main interceptors fired towards the attackers in large number their top speed are beneath many modern jets but they just need to have to get close and are small enough be hard to detect they can also pack heatseeker missiles which slow them down but give them more firepower

Last edited 20 days ago by farbat
farbat

it might seem absurd to you that iran weaponized those drones america used decades ago as target practice into airplane killers but that is what iran basically did these drones simply are cheap enough to oversaturate the enemy with them high altitude approaching hostiles are easy targets for irans a2ad meanwhile so it has to be low and there iran has alot of weapon systems to turn the air into a burning sea if needed

Last edited 20 days ago by farbat
farbat

when it comes to ganging up with missilesdrones air strikes and basically showering iran the issue is basically a short game since once you start oversaturating the defences and start hitting some of them at the same time 100s of missiles get fired in return on everything you are attacking with and own in the region so as an attacker you are basically doing a suicide mission for limited damage on the enemy

farbat

basically any attack from air on iran is a suicide mission and the air is the worst way to fight iran it made itself ready to fight if needed 2 times the power of america and in fact iran never just calculated its forces to be strong enough to only fight america but to fight the entire world if needed

Last edited 20 days ago by farbat
farbat

what you are talking about is a large amount of firepower fired against eachother that would end the world as we know it the energy crises created out of it would basically be unimaginably horrible for the world millions would die worldwide cities would sink into chaos its just delusional talk to think of such scenarios to begin with the usa never was in a position to wage any sort of direct military clash against iran without destroying the global energy supply line and this issue already almost happened in the past when iran was basically still a weakling and a nobody in the world compared to today and during that time iran was prepared to take on the world aswell so nothing changed in that aspect

Last edited 20 days ago by farbat
farbat

the west did design the traditional concept of air combat todays modernist concepts are all based on that and we dont have to fight the way the west fight so we fight them in a way that will take their adventages away from them and which will fit us and irans enemies always will have it easier to flee than to move forward that much is sure so america already flees instead of fighting us

Last edited 20 days ago by farbat
farbat

lets take the uss bonhomme as an example of a force that sought to attack iran which it did and now look at it being all burned up its just an example of how even attempting to fight iran will burn you and the usa still has no clue what happens and when i repeat that they were hit by plasma particle emitter weapon than they might still not believe it just remember compared to you westerners we iranians fight atypical in most ways that includes stopping attacks before they can even be formed in dreams the uss bonhomme attack is a perfect example of how an enemy of iran will even during the plotting of an attack will lose their assets

Last edited 20 days ago by farbat
Jnoub

Great analysis, thanks.

Gryzor

Iran has indeed gradually upgraded their remaining fleet of 45-50+ F-14s and dubbed the variant “F-14 AM”,look it up online. Fully digitized cockpits,new solid-state and extended range radars and Fakour-90 Long range AAMs (Iranian variants of the AIM-54 Pheonix that were years in the making) and real-time datalink to Ground Control Intercept and between fighters. Same with its 60 F-4s thanks to chinese support for a full overhaul and avionics change. Their 35 Mig-29s have been upgraded to the Russian SM standard during the Syrian conflict. In a purely defensive posture and within cover of their IADS ,the IRIAF is an extremely potent and deadly foe even to the IDF. That’s why mossad spard no effort in trying to gain information on the operationnal rates and airbases composition a few years back.

As for the Azeri airforce comprised of a dozen Mig-29s and Mig-21s, it is a joke in comparison. And its couple airbases are completely exposed to annihilation from Iranian ballistic arsenal that would suffice to kill it off on the ground.

Last edited 20 days ago by Gryzor
Jnoub

The first thing Iran would do is flatten their airforce, Iran won’t even need to bring out its jets

Attila

Just the job for B-52 carpet bombing .

Ahson

but why? you think the US gives a shit about you guppu’s?……lol…..they didn’t give a shit about their own in Kabul no? Let them die over there in suicide attacks……and you think they’d send in B-52’s to save your flat face?…..lol

Last edited 20 days ago by Ahson
lol

B-52 ancient barely flying junk , it was obsolete back in Nam.

Attila

Iran power 🖕💩🪳 nothing but hot air all plastic

farbat

you mean the hulls of our drones i guess its stealth resisting nano carbon fiber plating and yes it is flexible that is why you might think its plastic but be sure you cant even produce it so stop mocking yourself

farbat

diamonds are made of carbon just so you know and that is what the technology to produce such materials would be worth to you uglu turks a huge amount of diamonds

Last edited 20 days ago by farbat
Chris Gr

If it was Sunni-Shia war it would be easy for Sunnis to win because they have the 90% of fighters and the support of the West. But it is not that way really. You see that in the past wars with Iraq, Turkey and Pakistan supported Iran. Syria and Algeria were also close to Iran. Iran supported the Egyptian MB and the Sudanese MB and its war on Darfur.

Ahson

how and when did turkey and pakistan support Iran against Iraq? Could you elaborate please?

Last edited 20 days ago by Ahson
Chris Gr

During the wars with Saddam and ISIS and PKK.

Ahson

Could you provide some news articles of turkey and pakistan helping Iran against Saddam, ISIS and PKK?

Chris Gr

Search about Iran-Iraq war, Operation Claw Eagle and Battle of Mosul.

Ahson

Operation eagle claw was a CIA attempt at extracting hostages from the US embassy compound. The US aircraft/ helicopters flew from the USN ships in the Persian Gulf. It ended in dramatic failure. In the battle of Mosul, the Iraqi PMU’s and the Iraqi army destroyed ISIS capital mosul. I fail to find any turkey or pakistan involvement in all this? Doesn’t seem you know much about what yous talking about.

Last edited 20 days ago by Ahson
Chris Gr

Eagle Claw was an operation by Turks and Iranians with the help of Iraqis and Iraqi Kurds.

Turkmen brigades are inside PMU. And Pakistan supported the operation with weapons.

Jnoub

I meant only Azerbaijan. The Shias there hate their government, I doubt they’ll help them destroy another Shia country. Shias have a strong relationship all over the world, and Iran is like Shia homeland for a lot of shias

Chris Gr

I know that

Jnoub

Looks like Israel is provoking war with Iran and Azerbaijan. Israel funding Azerbaijan with their weapons to test them out in war and see what Iran is made of.

Capt Steven Hiller USMC

israel is the most cowardly, pussy nation on earth, always resorting to underhanded third party proxy tactics to attack its enemies, and almost never directly attacking them. PUSSY NATION! LOL

farbat

proxies are indeed for cowards just look at the al saud cowards with their proxies in yemen and the heroic revolutionary forces in yemen resisting against the likes of al qaeda daesh somalian and sudanese mercs and other proxies

Chris Gr

Sudanese and Somalis were supported by Iran in the past.

Ahson

lol……how? when? in what war? What sort of help did Iran provide to Sudan or Somalia?

Last edited 20 days ago by Ahson
Chris Gr

Iran helped Sudan against Darfur and Somali islamists against the government.

Ahson

Could you provide some proof for your claims please?

Last edited 20 days ago by Ahson
Chris Gr

Yes

farbat

you are such a child

farbat

back in the days sudan was planned to become the aggressor of africa but instead they wasted the youth in yemen so yes there was a time sudan would even buy weapons from iran

Chris Gr

Thanks for the confirm

farbat

they sought to send daesh kind of somalians to europe in the 1000s basically that is also something which is minimized of course daesh achieved to indoctrinate some of them who already achieved to move to europe but those in sudan trained daesh forces are done they will never reach europe

Chris Gr

Not ISIS but more moderate islamists Somalis.

farbat

he is right iran stopped a pan african war that was planned unfortunally iran couldnt safe sudan itself since its basically a lackey nowadays but unfortunally as i said irans enemies achieved to use the youth of sudan for war in yemen instead

Last edited 20 days ago by farbat
Ahson

supplying small arms and a few safir jeeps to sudan 15 years ago is support? I don’t believe the value of goods sold exceeded even $50 million. And Iran involved in Somalia? well that’s news to me? I don’t think Iran did diddly in Somalia.

farbat

more than communism ever was irans islamic revolution is global because is anti oppression and in its core a class conflict between the have nots and the have more than they can ever spend and irans revolution was always about this issue so the whole hostility directed against iran is by those who want humanity to be poor mislead and oppressed

Last edited 21 days ago by farbat
farbat

iran doesnt do wars anyway and since nobody can survive a war against iran to begin with its just absurd to talk about wars irans striking capability is as i repeat beyond anyones calculation or simulation and nobody does starts wars which cant be calculated or simulated the issue is that iran is simply way to atypical for such adventures and on top of it all iran still sits on the strait of hormuz any instability will destroy the global economy it would mean the end of turkey for example even if iran didnt fire a single bullet towards turkey it would end up destroyed like large parts of the world

Last edited 21 days ago by farbat
Jnoub

You’re right, but I think that’s their play. They let Azerbaijan test out their weapons to see the flaws. If Iran has a hard time with them (which they won’t) America and Israel will most likely try gang up on Iran

farbat

harop drones got already downed on irans border when there was less military force gathered during the karabakh conflict so even a single artillery round fired towards iran by baku right now would mean iran basically taking the south caucasus in return so forget these delusions the usa and the zionists cant even pull up their own pants they are that incapable these days so they arent in a better situation than baku

Last edited 20 days ago by farbat
farbat

the idea of ganging up on iran is a fantasy because the usa is leaving west asia and the zionists are weaklings and cowardly fools and even the entire world ganging up on iran will just mean the entire world will end up destroyed so its delusion to think that iran can be militarily defeated still to this day as it was from the first day the idiotic hostility against iran started after the revolution

Last edited 20 days ago by farbat
block

Exactly what happened on 11/9. zionist and saudi fools working with the bush gov created a new “war on terror” business model.

Chris Gr

Actually Bush wanted to invade Saudi Arabia after Iraq.

Ahson

lol……why would bush do that when the sawdi’s were/ are to this day so compliant? The US owns sawdi arabia! Why in da fuck would the US have invaded sawdi arabia?…..lol

Chris Gr

Chossudovsky has said it.

Ahson

but, lol…….why would the US invade sawdi arabia when the US literally has full access to it as a colonial possession, since 1923 no? Do you realize the absurdity of your comment?…..lol

Last edited 20 days ago by Ahson
Jnoub

Greater Israel, in pretty sure the plan is to fully takeover the Middle East which will never happen as long as Iran and its axis of resistance is still here.

Chris Gr

Axis of Gog Magog you mean.

Ahson

whats that a heenb-brew gypsy story?

Jnoub

You wish you wahabi, no can take the Shias down. We’re the most hated on this earth since the prophets death, and look how far we came

Chris Gr

I am against Wahhabism

Capt Steven Hiller USMC

if a war does occur, i really hope iran makes whoever instigated pay dearly

farbat

any war directed against iran means haifa and tel aviv will become burning ruins

block

It also would mean Russian and Chinese support, not to mention Syria, Iraq, Lebanon etc. Not happening…

farbat

forget all of those for a moment because iran alone will leave basically the entire enemies shattered already so its just absurdly stupid to be hostile towards iran and more than anything its suicide

farbat

in fact i dont care who instigates the war any war against iran means we have to fire the missiles which are directed at the zionists while we hit back at the attacker there is simply no question about this issue iran will fire at the zionists either way so they should care to create the greatest amount of security in west asia instead of causing trouble if they dont want to die

farbat

if the globalists dont want us to crush the entire global system of oppression that they created in a very short amount of time than they should take notice and put the zionists in their place before we wipe them out all together and create something more useful and more sustainable in their place

Last edited 21 days ago by farbat
Dennis Kovac

Thank you for your comments

farbat

pacta sunt servanda aslong as they dont keep to their promises and laws they are useless they are basically arrogant hypocrites and nothing more so our emam was right to say that we have to get rid of them since humanity can never work with the likes of them without the usual sickness befalling the planet these sickening evil serpents are the greatest annoyance of all

Anders

lol.. What a joke of an article.. Iran herself was the one being delusional but now they know whats up. They felt as if they didn’t know that Azer-Turkey have strong alliance in the region and that goes beyond understanding and this is what we told them before acting tough and now they come back pacifised and all surprised..

Author trying to flip the article on it’s head.. lmao changing narratives

Last edited 20 days ago by Anders
Chris Gr

Iran didn’t have any problem with Turks and Azeris.

farbat

they started to become a problem besides 100s of our warnings these idiots still thought they are somehow tough when in truth they are cowards

Murphy

It’s SouthFront. What do you expect?!!

James

Love Iran

Freedom is equal to all of us

If a war breaks out between Iran vs Turkey & Azerbaijan.
Now Iran has a chance to show the world how powerful the Iranian army by defeating Azerbaijan and Turkey combined.

Murphy

posted in error

Last edited 19 days ago by Murphy
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