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The recent advances of Al Nusra and Ahram al-Sham in the Sheikh Maqsoud district and the Jaish al-Fatah operation room, which also includes Al Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham, near the village of Khan Touman, have almost scrubbed any initiatives to set a ceasefire regime in the Aleppo city and nearby areas, showcasing that rhetoric about bad humanitarian conditions and the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan are a merely part of the ongoing PR-war against the Assad government and its allies. The strategic goal is prevent the advances of pro-government troops and operations of the Russian aerospace forces in the Aleppo city and in Northern Syria, in general.
The only answer to this challenge is a constant military pressure on all Syrian armed groups that ignore attempts of the cessation of hostilities. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on June 6 that Russia will provide “the most active” air support for government troops in and around the city of Aleppo. In this case, such groups as Ahrar al-Sham and Jaish al-Fatah should be a legitimate target of the Russian air power. If the Washington directly recognizes these al-Qaeda-linked groups as a moderate opposition on an official level, it will be a PR disaster, threating to undermine the US diplomatic position on Syria in the nearest future.
In turn, the toleration of conditions when Islamist militants were able to prepare and storm Aleppo districts was a mistake of Russian military advisers and the Syrian military. Initially, Saudi and Turkish backed groups passed the areas near the city of Mare to ISIS. This allowed them to re-deploy a significant force to the Aleppo city and the Sheikh Maqsoud district. Al Nusra and Ahram al-Sham units were strengthened by arms supplies from Turkey. Furthermore, there were reports about Turkish troops among the militant groups. According to experts, Turkish military advisers have been providing strategic planning and other support to Al Nusra and Ahram al-Sham at least since the middle of 2015. The fact that ISIS didn’t stormed Mare, when Al Nusra and others conducted operations in Aleppo, proved at least tactical military cooperation between Al Nusra and ISIS. The advance was covered by the US-led diplomatic and PR campaign, doubted “Don’t bomb the moderate opposition”. As result, the military situation in the Aleppo city worsened.
The Moderates are the #1 enemy here. And I can explain logically here below in 4 simple steps. #1 The US is placing all their eggs into the basket of the “Moderates” to overthrow Syria. #2 The US cannot openly back ISIS for obvious reasons. Such as public opinion on discrediting themselves. #3 ISIS is going to die off anyway, because the world is against them. But the Moderates may end up gaining further support in the UN. So the primary target is the “pretend” fence-sitters called “The Moderates” #4, Wipe out the “Moderates” as ISIS will soon fall down anyway.
Awesome, keep these photos coming ….
Russia will fall due to its stupidity. No other country has a more stupid foreign policy. 5 months of bombing for nothing, he gave the terrorists breathing space to re-supply and re-organize. Putin is obsessed by making retarded ceasefires at the most inappropriate moments.
Putin is putting opinion at a higher level. This is for… #1 humanitarian reasons. #2 Russia’s international image. #3 International legal reasons. #4 Russia also does not want an outright win. They also want a little leverage against Iran. So they can hold some sway over Iran’s foreign deployment actions. Like bargaining chips. I do not agree with this part. But this is how it is none the less.
You see, Iran wants a Syrian outright win in Syria. They want all the opposition groups smashed to maintain the balance against the Zionist. Russia does not want an outright military win against the Moderates. They want a negotiated solution. (Probably cause this will make Russia look good on the international playing field, and gain more voice and pull among other nations that Russia is more diplomatic then the US or UK.)
The main reason for this was is because of the gas pipeline. Syria has basically fought 5 years for russian interests. The whole syrian youth is wiped off due to this war. Russia has lost strategic allies after strategic allies (Ukraine, Cuba, Venezuela, Central Asia), due to Putins stupid foreign policy. Putin lost Ukraine due to his obsession to the olympic games, and he agreed to a ceasefire when he was about to take Mariupol, which would have created a landline to crimea. The only strategic ally left is Syria, which he is treating anything else but well. This is not how you treat friends. This “friendship” will not be forgotten, mark my words. Russia is going down with Putin.
The main reason for this war…
Erdogan building dams on rivers to deprive Syria of water and initiate hunger and malcontent?
Most of the Syrian youth are living it up in Europe. The Syrian army never Numbers more then 90,000. Which is an ultra low number. And more then 60,000 of those are still alive, with fresh recruits. Syria has millions of youth. This is not World War 1 Trench warfare where 90,000 die in a single charge. “Big battles” in Syria are where 40 terrorist are killed in a day. And 11 Syrian solders are killed and 18 wounded. These are small battles. More like policing actions. FACT: 99.99% of munitions fired in Syria never hit anyone, only infrastructure. Builds and such. The damage looks horrific, but most people are in Jordan, Turkey, Europe and other places. They are going clubbing, swimming and other such fun activities.
Oh I am so sorry, my bad. Russia is so full of moral and facts. Of course 11 syrian soldiers should be sacrificed every day to protect russian interests.
Lols. Turkey goes down with Erdogan much before that.
which country have a better foreign policy? I’m curious, because if the US is on your list I’d like to hear how the total disaster ME is currently is not owed to the invasion of Irak in 2003.
Take it easy, have some faith. Their is a ‘method’ going on here. Russia gave the so called moderates a ‘chance’; knowing full well they will blow it. Now, they are all free game. Many, many rebels and groups did sign an agreement with the Syrian gov. and handed over their weapons and went home, or switched sides. The also ‘dis-armed’ the Anglo-Zionist propaganda war through the brilliant cease-fire initiative. Since the Western backed ‘moderates’ violated the cease-fire 502 times since it was declared, they have a target on their back and Russia and the Syrian Arab Army can crush them at will.
The Russian approach to things is much different than what anybody in the West or Middle East would pursue. Remember, these are the guys that wiped the floor with Napleon and obliterated Nazi power at it´s zenith ( aka the Battle of Kursk ). So, beware underestimating the Russians.
The people that made the real mistake were my people; the Americans. They had Russia face down on the ground and instead of permenantly defeating them, they figured Russia could be turned into a puppet. This appeared to be true for a time, with the example of Yeltsin and Kosovo.
In the interview by Lavrov featured on Southfront, he gave a very clear picture of how Russia is doing things right now. They are more than willing to be quiet, appear stupid, incompetent or anything else of a temporary nature, in exchange for longer term gains. The founder of Stratfor, Dr. Friedman, from whom I did learn a lot, many times stated that the Ukraine was a colossal intelligence failure. He now has to eat his words because Lavrov let the world know, they were watching the Americans plan the coup, knowing the inextractable mess they were getting themselves into. Seizing Crimea was not desperation. It was fare thee well.
There are too many moving parts going on right now to make much of a judgement on who is winning or losing in Syria. That said, my hunch tells me Russia will have one or more parties with their pants around the ankles in short order. Just my opinion. I am staying tuned. Good day to all.
This is a remarkably insightful post – Thanks.
Thank you Pave. Enjoy your evening. :)
I agree with you aswell John. The Russian’s know exactly what they are doing. They wrote the book on International Diplomacy from Molotov
Good morning Hisham. You put it perfectly. It is always the new group of newbs that thinks they know better than everybody else that went to hell via handbag.
I enjoyed your post. It was cool. At the moment, I think Russia is holding back a lot. They will use it when necessary. I don´t see them in a Superman image but, Russia is led by a man who has spent a lifetime as a Judo player. The main teaching of Judo is let the other guy do the work for you. The juvenile insults, personal threats and name calling, like the former Austrailian Prime Minister pulled on Putin, the disinformation of their capabilities, ect., will only lead to bigger bruises and much more embarrasment in the end.
I thank you for your reply. Have a great day.
I’m not sure how the americans should had “premanently defeated” Russia. Even in the 90ies, Russian strategic forces could react to any attack on the country, and remained the only force able to match US nuclear ability. So the only way to permanently defeat Russia for the US would had brought the world to nuclear holocaust, permanently defeating every single country, US included. I’m not an american, but I believe that americans are mostly happy with how things turned out.
I agree with your point about Russia nuclear capabilities at that time. Although the go at it with them option was on the table, it was not taken. The option that was taken, was dictated by Grand American Strategy and the US decided to create a slave. It worked for a short period but, was over in less than 10 years; Kosovo.
My read on my govenrment, the people groups calling the shots, is that they are pretty freaked out right now. The situation is blowing up in their face and they don´t have a fraction of the leverage they once enjoyed. Russia, as well as China are doing a ´Fleetwood Mac´and going their own way. They are not looking back either. My view of things. Have a great day Whitehot..
Why Russia is not conducting air patrols and bombs the shit out of the turkish resupply as soon as it crosses the border?
Because it doesn’t work this way
It wasn’t a mistake of military advisers, but naivety and therefore weakness of Russia political leadership that US exploited.
or, you and everybody else don’t have a full grasp of the current situation – after all the “moderates” are clearly breaking the ceasefire at Aleppo, which is cause for being considered terrorist organizations and legal targets in the agreement the US signed in front of the UN.
I myself dont think it was a mistake in directing the conflict towards a diplomatic solution. Tehran,and Moscow did this willingly knowing full well in advance the deceptive nature of the anglo-zionist and their real agenda, (balkanize the whole area to secure the strategic strength of the Zionist(Israel). and further undermine the so called Shia crescent. Note the rhetoric that has consistantly come out of Tehran “Diplomacy not war” These moves has totally exposed the MSM and the anglo-zionist . That is that regime change is all they want and that they have been lying via MSM all along. It is all part of the greater Israel project and off course gas and oil. Assad has been a thorn in the anglo-zionist side plot to destroy and rule. Note the rhetoric that is coming out of Moscow, all bets r off be moderate or not they will be destroyed. The Russians also were able to buy for time to train all the SAA and the desert hawks (private military) of all the new military hardware that r being deployed. The Manpads that have been delivered to the Takfiris have been made redundant with the new T-72 and T90 tanks and the new helicopters have advanced electronics that will shield them from the manpads.Anglo-zionist will rot in hell they will be in for a real surprise and just on the 4th of July great news for the Washington consensus. Got luv the russians and the persians they r playing these anglo-zionist like fools for they have proven time and again how morally and intellectually bankrupt they have been and r. Viva il popolo di Siria