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JUNE 2020

In Maps: Possible Scenario Of Syrian Army Advance On Kbani In Northern Lattakia


On May 25, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda), the Turkistan Islamic Party and their allies repelled another Syrian Arab Army (SAA) attack on their positions near the town of Kbani in northern Lattakia. The continued clashes in the area fuel speculations that the SAA may focus its main offensive efforts in this region after the recent setback in northwestern Hama.

According to both pro-government and pro-militant sources sources, the town of Kbani is an important point in the militants’ defense in the area. Its vicinity has been repeatedly used by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other groups to launch rockets at targets deep inside the government-controlled area.

In the event of the large-scale push to capture Kbani, it may include the following phases:

  • to isolate the south slope of Jabal Zuwayqat;
  • to seize Jabal Zuwayqat’s hilltop;
  • to seize Zuwayqat hamlet and Ridge 1120;
  • to seize Kbani and Barzah hilltops.
In Maps: Possible Scenario Of Syrian Army Advance On Kbani In Northern Lattakia

Click to see the full-size image

At the first stage, the SAA will try to capture Point 1110 and Point 1115 to establish fire control of the southern perimeter of Jabal Zuwayqat.

In Maps: Possible Scenario Of Syrian Army Advance On Kbani In Northern Lattakia

Click to see the full-size image

Then, SAA units will likely work to secure of Jabal Zuwayqat’s hilltop using the previously gained points and nearby area. The key part of this effort will be to establish control and clear high points surrounding the area.

In Maps: Possible Scenario Of Syrian Army Advance On Kbani In Northern Lattakia

Click to see the full-size image

The control over Jabal Zuwayqat will allow the SAA to get fire control of Kbani, the Zuwayqat hamlet and Ridge 1120. Using this situation, SAA artillery and fire support units will work to destroy militant fortifications near Kbani.

In Maps: Possible Scenario Of Syrian Army Advance On Kbani In Northern Lattakia

Click to see the full-size image

Then, the SAA will launch a final push to capture the town of Kbani.

In Maps: Possible Scenario Of Syrian Army Advance On Kbani In Northern Lattakia

Click to see the full-size image




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  • Jacob “Wraith” Wohl

    Despite 50,000 airstrikes and 100000000 artillery missiles, poor butcher regime cant advance against some poorly armed rebels on a hilltop :-)

    • eltahar

      How is Afghanistan going zionist troll? The butchers are in Tel Aviv and Washington.

      • Arnte

        Jacob Wohl (born December 12, 1997)[1] is an American far-right conspiracy theorist, fraudster, and internet troll.[12][13]

        Lol. Wohl is a “celebrity”, officially acknowledged as a troll. He is a failure even as a troll, just a pathetic little loser psychopath with big nose and micro brain.

        • FlorianGeyer

          Brilliant :)

  • ╭∩╮( ͡ʘ ͜ʖ ͡ʘ)╭∩╮

    regime failed terribly on these spots already, pathetic army


    Great maps SF.
    Hopefully the Jihadist rats have been weakened enough.
    And Kbani will finally fall. :)

  • Willing Conscience (The Truths

    If the Russians and SAA cooperate and actually coordinate an attack on HTS they’ll smash them to pieces, but they’re not doing that as far as I can see, it seems the SAA are going it alone and trying to do their own thing, but sadly failing to achieve good results. And it doesn’t help that the rebel factions under Erdogan’s control are attacking the SAA even more than HTS is, Putin should be warning Erdogan to keep his boys out of the picture or they’ll be treated the same way HTS is, but he doesn’t.

  • cliff

    The Russian and the Syrian war plane need to soften the front line with artillery, rockets and Air strike for the 3 days and 3 night then 4th night the same routine should follow with a ground invasion.

  • goingbrokes

    It will be interesting to see how long the jihadi scum can defend this highly defensible position against the SAA. It is a difficult proposition, but in the end no more difficult than the cities SAA has taken previously. Tanks are only of limited use here because of the terrain.
    After SAA has taken tis town and the hills we’ll see it/them fortified to a very high degree.

    • S Melanson

      It has a bit of the Battle for Casino (Italy, 1944). Let us hope it in not that bad. The wisdom of shipping the Jihadists to Idlib is looking ever more questionable although hind-sight is 20/20. I am a bit surprised but note that HTS resolved much of the issue of divided rival factions and preventing a divide and conquer campaign. The jihadists are out-smarting the SAA at this point.

      What I do not understand is why the jihadists are targeting the Russians if there is some arrangement between Putin and Erdogan. Is it because the Russian military is pushing the Idlib campaign against the wishes of Putin and so Russian forces are targeted as retaliation by Turkish backed forces? If so, the power struggle in Russia is more serious than I thought. This still would not explain targeting Russian forces well before the Idlib campaign started.

      Syria, the land of confusion.

      • Promitheas Apollonious

        targeting russian forces………… has anything hit the russian forces? Nothing confusing about it.

        • S Melanson

          Good point – controlled opposition!

          • Promitheas Apollonious

            If you check history you see that one country always have supported the turks and that is UK. Of course US is been used as always been the military strong arm of globalization every one looking for the deep state in US and they fail to see whose controlling them and give them their running orders. I think soon will be able exchange records and then you see what I mean but what is happening now it make me think that russia make an effort to free her self but they fall short, so now they follow the leader and will be selling every one who ever trusted them soon enough.

            I wish I am wrong but the writing on the wall says different.

          • S Melanson

            I am interested in your records and what I suggest is you write an article discussing these records. My website will publish submissions by guest authors if they meet article submission policies which I will provide under header – Submission Guide for Guest Authors.

            I will provide site domain and email soon. The first post is on Yemen. There will also be a discussion forum to debate policy for comments and a forum to discuss article submission requirements such as the author(s) of the article must be identified as a condition for publishing- I take a dim view of anonymous articles. I also think disclosure of past and present affiliations should be required as opposed to optional.

            I will also discuss research methods in exploring a topic – using multiple sources, relevance, thoroughness and how to read between the lines when reviewing highly biased sources (MSM, Gulf State Media etc.). Importance of covering more than one side of the debate, avoid cherry picking facts – this can be unintentional and is known as confirmation bias. Also, controlled or corrupted opposition – what it is and is not, indicators of a source being corrupted or co-opted.

            Also a discussion of internalized bias – normative, echo chamber, taken for granted or taken as given, confirmation bias, indoctrination etc. This section will have a few surprises for readers I am pretty sure.

          • Promitheas Apollonious

            sound very good to me and it appears we think the same on this lines.

          • Promitheas Apollonious

            I dont write articles my friend, but my people do. I give them the info, they put it together. Part of the reason I am in forums in my old age, is so I see the mentality of people and where the wind blows, among the masses.

            I been isolated from them most of my life and I am curious to figure out how they become empty shells and such push overs. The best way, is not listen to them how they speak, but how they write, as subconscious when you writing, it is a bitch and is unavoidable.

          • FlorianGeyer

            ” If you check history you see that one country always have supported the turks and that is UK.”

            You forget the UK defeat of the battle for Gallipoli during WW1 and the successful UK WW1 campaign against the Turks in Palestine I think :)

          • Promitheas Apollonious

            I forget nothing. What i said stand and it is true. As for what happen in palestine as well in egypt that english took the credit check whose army was fighting with them against the turks and you find out that was a lot of greek and cypriot volunteers. Ones after wards they betray in a very big way.

            But that is old history. Also check all the Un resolutions and who always is standing next to the turks not to mention all the fights they did in order turks to become EU member’s.

            Also understand I am not against the english population, minus the imported ones that do not belong to england and never should been there. So when I am referring to any country I am referring to the politicians and the ones who run it not the populations.

          • S Melanson

            True. Also, UK proposed a Kurdish State after the Ottoman capitulation and this was to be made reality under the draconian Sevres Treaty of 1920. However the hero of Gallipoli who would be dubbed Kemal Ataturk (first Turk) put an end to that and the Sevres Treaty.

            Kemal also was probably aware of the British incitement for the Arab revolt and the plan to betray the Arabs as he is believed to have met Colonel T.E. Lawrence (Lawrence of Arabia) prior to Lawrence’s release from Ottoman captivity. At this point, Kemal knew the Central Powers would be soon defeated and there is much debate why Lawrence was released. Kemal had plenty of reason to distrust Britain given Sykes Picot and the Sevres Treaty championed by Britain. But Turkey under Kemal embraced secularism and western ways, joining NATO in an alliance with former enemy Britain.

            So seems complicated and note Erdogan is shifting Turkey away from secular rule and the west but how far will this go is the question and if it is temporary due to opportunism… something to debate.

          • FlorianGeyer

            I would think that the Brits were still too ‘buthurt ‘ about Gallipoli in 1939 to consider an alliance with Turkey.

      • Jakke1899

        Mmm… Interesting theory. Do you really think the Russian general staff would go over the head of Putin on such a high profile case as Syria?
        On an other topic : you mentioned somewhere on this forum, you have your own website. Could you give some more information on this. I’m rather interested in more of your views on worldly matters. Kind regards.

        • S Melanson

          Sorry for the delay in getting back to you.

          The short answer to your question is yes they will and in fact have done this before. Putin found himself contradicted and pushed aside by the military for being conciliatory towards Israel shortly after the IL-20 tragedy. I believe Putin has restored to some extent his power but I also think there is still an ongoing power struggle and at this time, I cannot say with any confidence how it will play out.

          The military can also subvert Putin’s intent in less blatant ways such as escalating in Idlib – I suggest watching The Sum of All Fears as there is a similar scenario and the Russian President states he gave the order for an attack he did not to cover up – does not want the world to think he has lost control.

          I think the US is another example as there is a lot of confusion and contradictory statements on policy direction as President Bolton and President Trump take turns being President.

          My website is up but being tested as I finalize the first content to be posted. I put some money into this for heightened security, premium Disqus, enhanced editor etc. Using IPage to host WordPress.org build and my web developer and Site component costs just now passing a thousand dollars which is not to bad for what I am getting and have accomplished so far. I will follow up with you soon to give more info. My site is called MELANSON WIRE.

          Cheers and thanks for the supportive words.

  • Lazy Gamer

    Mountains are hard to assault with troops mechanized or otherwise. Is this also covered with jungles or a bare mountain? Cant the Russians just scorch the whole mountain? Given a few weeks time, positions can and should be discovered first. Then either drop or mountain bike away from roads? Lol

  • Kell

    Perhaps night assault with choppers dropping troops/missile teams on certain peaks at 2am with main assault making for the objectives – risky if main assault fails.

    • Kell

      Hip-8s can carry 30 or so blokes

  • Nassim7

    No hurry. Just wear them down. Cut their supplies. Isolate them. Very effective and not so many casualties. Time is on the side of the SAA

    • Promitheas Apollonious

      No is not. The turkish backed terrorists are not isolated and are supplied by the turks who put them there in cooperation with the russians, so how you figured out that time is at the side of SAA? The russians with their cease fire agreements remind me, the cease fire agreements the israelis get form their allies UK/US, every time they have their asses kicked.

      • You can call me Al

        So what part of Nassim7’s comment did you not understand – “Just wear them down. Cut their supplies. Isolate them.” ?.

        • Promitheas Apollonious

          Cutting off their supplies means to seal the borders with turkey. I understand the comment as well the stupidity in it, because as things stand right now it can not happen and wars are not won, based on IF it could happen, but what can happen.

          So in order to cut off supplies first they need to actually win the war and seal the borders with turkey, but then they dont need to cut off supplies since already they have win the war. Al if you want me to respect you dont ask a stupid question again.

  • kraaiiii

    Kafr Nabudah already retaken, it’s gonna be a ping pong war, a lot of probing attacks, and where SAA retreats to save man power and let artillery do it’s job.

  • Assad must stay (gr8rambino)

    russia needs to use its Mi-24/28 attack choppers at night especially so rats cant do shit, and Su-25 for CAS!!! cmon russia you gotta be all in with this