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Illegal Migrants And Idlib Crisis: Turkey’s New-Old Game To Pressure European Union

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Illegal Migrants And Idlib Crisis: Turkey's New-Old Game To Pressure European Union

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Turkey seems to be using a new propaganda strategy in its efforts against the ongoing Syria Army anti-terrorism operation in Idlib. It is now claiming that the defeat of terrorists in Syria’s Idlib will lead to an intensified flow of illegal migrants to Europe.

Earlier, Turkey preferred  to insist that the Idlib area was filled with “moderate rebels” fighting against the “Assad regime”. Now, these clams became a second-grade topic in Turkish media. The main topic is the suppusedly impending humanitarian crisis.

Illegal Migrants And Idlib Crisis: Turkey's New-Old Game To Pressure European Union

Click to see full-size image. An infographic pieces by Turkey’s Anadolu Agency

According to Ankara, civilians are fleeing from the Syrian Army advance.

“In the past two days, some 10,000 civilians out of 215,000 fled as a result of the attacks, Mohammad Halaj, the head of Syria’s Response Coordination Group, said.”

If the violence does not end, the number of people, who have to leave Syria, will surge, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.

The majority of people who had to flee the violence reportedly went to camps in Atmah, Qah, Deir Hassan and Kafr Lusin, areas seized by the Turkish military operations, while others headed to olive grove farms near the Turkish border.

Ankara seems quite concerned over this humanitarian crisis, similarly to how concerned it was that the “Assad regime” is fighting against the “moderate rebels.”

It was never a secret that Idlib was under control by al-Qaeda, or al-Qaeda affiliated groups, and the “moderate rebels” were little more than a fairytale. Now that, there are no more “moderate rebels” and an impeding humanitarian crisis, Ankara shows that it is willing to tolerate a terrorist stronghold near its borders, since that is what Idlib would be if the Syrian Arab Army and its allies weren’t carrying out their offensive.

Furthermore, claims that more refugees would migrate towards the EU are a continuation of Ankara’s efforts to pressure Europe on the matter.

It should be reminded that on December 9th, the EU Facility for Refugees in Turkey “mobilised” EUR6 billion to support refugees and local communities in need and the funds were fully mobilized.

Oliver Várhelyi, Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, commented: “The full mobilisation of the €6 billion of the Facility for Refugees in Turkey confirms the European Union’s commitment to deliver on its promises. We will continue our support to refugees and host communities in Turkey in various areas that are of key importance to their quality of life, the future of their children and their integration at large”.

Janez Lenarčič, EU Commissioner for Crisis Management, added: “Supporting refugees in Turkey is a priority for the EU. Thanks to EU’s support, more than 1.7 million vulnerable refugees cover their basic needs, such as rent and medicine, and more than half a million refugee children go to school. EU continues to deliver on its promise to refugees and Turkey.”

Therefore, the current propaganda campaign on the ‘humanitarian crisis’ in Idlib also has a monetary value for Turkey, which uses it to pressure the European Union and get even more revnue from its participation in security efforts to handle the illegal migrant flow.


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Hanny Benny

and within turkey prepares the war against greece with the eu-money and german weapons…

turkey = REAL ISIS !!! (500 years of devsirme childabducting)


What “eu-money” for war? That must be false. What German weapons? Leopards they bought? Germany has right to sell to any NATO country so what is your point? You sound like modern journalist with lots of bombastic words and with no interest for the facts at all.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

Erdogan’s already in trouble with Merkel, he let the SNA use one of those leopard tanks which he’s prohibited from doing, arms sales are on hold now, it’s not a good look if leopard tanks end up in terrorist hands.


I think that Germany is going to forget that very quickly. Turks are already producing their own tanks. And if they need more performance, they can buy Russian, or even S. Korean tanks. Even though quantity also can compensate quality. Plenty of the countries would be happy to sell tanks so Germany will forget all that I have no doubt about that.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

Spain and Italy both suspended their recommitments to supply air defence systems for Turkey, Spain’s since decided to extent it’s commitment a little longer but not indefinitely, otherwise Turkey would have no decent air defence systems at all, which leave a NATO country vulnerable. And all 28 EU member states are now refusing to sell arms to Turkey, they’ve also suspended negotiations with Turkey concerning gas drilling in the Med, they’ve frozen Turkish assets and placed visa restrictions on anyone involved in Turkish resource acquisition. So until the Turks are out of Syria this is what the Turks can expect from the EU, they’ve told him what they want and what they’ll do to make him comply, so let’s see who out stares who. But as you said Turkey does have other potential arms dealers to choose from, but I’d say look what the S-400’s got him, sanctions and cancelled contracts, can he afford to do it again, he keeps saying he will but I read Turkish news all the time, he’s full of BS, he’s already been trying to swindle his way back in with the US and worrying the Russians with what he says.


“but not indefinitely, otherwise Turkey would have no decent air defence systems”

With possibility to by from Russia, Turkey can buy any kind of shorter range air defenses if need be. With S-400 and few shorter range extras Turkey will have better air defenses than any other EU country including Spain.

” 28 EU member states are now refusing to sell arms to Turkey” All this is just pushing away Turkey out of NATO which is definitely in Russian and Chinese and even Iranian and Syrian interests.

“So until the Turks are out of Syria this is what the Turks can expect from the EU”

EU has no problem with Turkey being in Syria in general. They only have problem with Turkey attacking Kurd controlled SDF which are “protected” by US & EU.

“he’s full of BS, he’s already been trying to swindle his way back in with the US”

No worries Russians know exactly where Turkey stands. They know their ambition to have “best from both sides” and that is: 1.) NATO support when they need it + F-35 and Western know how and tech to build their own jets. 2.) And on the other side to buy S-400 and have arrangement with Russia to build “components” for S-400 (which can’t be anything of important parts really) All in all I think that is very stupid Turk idea and Turks are overestimating by far their importance and influence they have. Russia will keep dangling with the carrot till they get them out of NATO while West will sit and watch in frustration.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

Once the S-400’s are operational Turkey will still have inadequate air defenses, they’d need to buy a dozen systems [consisting of 8 to 12 launchers, a command unit and 2 support radars], to be even close to having an adequate air defense system. The S-400’s have both long and short range capabilities, they don’t even really need short range systems to protect or assist them, though of course it is preferable to use them in conjunction with other systems. But your right, they’re much better than the Patriots, even the Israelis David Sling and Iron Dome systems don’t even come close to effectiveness and max range of the S-400’s. There might come a day when Turkey eventually decides to leave NATO and does effectively ally itself to Russia, but that won’t be in my lifetime I’m betting. All Turkey’s opposition parties are on the NATO/US side, they actually resent Erdogan cosying up to Putin and Russia diplomatically, and since Erdogan only has just over 3 years before the next election, he better hurry up and switch sides now, because he’s predicted to lose the next election in a landslide and won’t be able to do it at all when he loses.


All S-400 systems need at least short range “Pantsir” and “Thor” systems to be protected. Even though true protection of S-400 is assured with multi layered air defense that includes medium range “Buk”. And to heave it really complete and not vulnerable it needs also EW – electronic warfare systems as well. Syria is the best example “why” they need that. “Short range capabilities” can’t be used for taking down swarms of smaller drones because those missiles are simple too expensive for that.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

I think you’ll find that not one of the opposition parties likes the idea of Erdogan splitting Turkey away from NATO, and they all dislike Erdogan favouring Putin over the US, the only parties you could possibly be referring to are the parties that make up Erdogan’s own AKP alliance. Erdogan’s dreams of a resurgent Ottoman empire are also at odds with Russian and especially Chinese interests, not to mention the fact the the Muslim Brotherhood who Erdogan supports, are now Russia’s public enemy number one.


I imagine that you are right about opposition. And I have only one detail to put forward to make picture more complete. China is the only very big investor (not counting Chines loans to Turkey). And today it is impossible to have strategy diametrically opposed to Russia (and China) in Syria. And to try to antagonize Russia while hopping in the same time that China will keep investing in Turkey. The money Turkey needs desperately to keep afloat her shaken economy. What counts for Erdogan is not “support” of opposition, but support of the people and usual song of countries past full of (Ottoman) glory on which depended Hitler and many other dictators.

“Ottoman empire are also at odds with Russian and especially Chinese interests” Good point. On the other hand Syria is best example when interests contradict the only way to re-mediate them is to make third party loser In this case the 3rd party is Kurds, US and West in general. They are sacrificial lamb for making peace between Russian and Ottoman interests.

” Muslim Brotherhood who Erdogan supports” Do not forget that exactly that fact makes Erdogan interesting partner for Russia. Since he has huge leverage in Muslim Brotherhood world. So he can influence them not to attack directly Russian interests while Russia can pay them back with some other favors.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

Turkey’s strategy in Syria is already diametrically opposed to Russia and China, China battles the Uighurs and Russia battles the Chechens but Erdogan happily sponsors both terrorist groups and also allows them safe haven in Syria, contradiction 1. Neither China or Russia want a change in the Syrian government, but Erdogan’s demanding a change, and he also wants the Syrian government to be Muslim Brotherhood aligned, contradiction 2. And lastly Syria’s territorial integrity, both China and Russia are adamant that Syria should retain its territorial integrity, and even though Erdogan’s been saying exactly the same thing just lately, his deeds show us he’s doing the exact opposite, contradiction 3. After the last Mayoral election re-vote results, Erdogan himself said that his party wouldn’t be able to win the next general election, and even though his personal popularity is sitting at about 50%, the other 50% of the population who don’t support him, actually hate his guts. Remember Erdogan locked up and tortured more than 10,000 people straight after the coup, he also sacked half the military command, Judiciary, Police and government bureaucrats, and now he even locks up journalists just for telling the truth. So I don’t think he has the support of the people at all anymore, not if half of them want to kill or jail him. It reminds me of the US where half the population love Trump and the other half hate him, that doesn’t help a government pass legislation, and it also doesn’t enhance your chances of being re- elected. You’re right about the Kurds, definitely sacrificial lambs, and it seems that everybody with a stake in the game wants to be the one holding the sacrificial knife. The Muslim Brotherhood is the same as Isis, Isis is just the military arm of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Muslim Brotherhood [MB] is the political arm of the organization. Russia’s been trying to make peace with the MB for a decade, China too, but the Chechens and Uighurs won’t stop fighting and always refuse to compromise, that’s why Russia has the MB on the designated terrorist list, and China may have to do the same thing too, they haven’t been able to come to terms with them either. Erdogan is the defacto leader of the MB and if you deal with him you’re already dealing with the MB. So just how well does Erdogan gets on with his neighbours, terribly, and look at his diplomatic relations with just about every other country in the world, also terrible, and look at his dealing with Putin, I think they’re terrible too since he hasn’t complied to any of the Astana agreements he made, so that’s what you’d get if you dealt with the MB, the same sort of behaviour you get from Erdogan. I believe Erdogan is the biggest problem for Syria right now, I’m afraid I can’t see one thing he could be useful for. Does NATO seem worried that Erdogan is threatening to leave the alliance, from what I’ve seen they couldn’t be doing anything less to keep him in the alliance, they’re not bending over backwards to keep him happy as I expected them to do. I suspect that means they’re either totally unworried about him leaving, or worse still for Putin, know that he’ll never leave the alliance no matter what he threatens to do. Doing deals with Erdogan or the MB is the same as doing deals with the devil, you’ll always end up losing your soul eventually.


“Turkey’s strategy in Syria is already diametrically opposed to Russia and China,” I tend to disagree. Do not believe me, just take look at the facts on the ground (that you ignore for some reason) . Liberation of Idlib is part of Astana agreement ! Since terrorist were stupid enough to refuse the access to the 2 main roads through Idlib ”to get to Aleppo” for Assad’s Syria. Since that was one of main points of agreement of Asatan the agreement must be implemented by force now!. Turks were unable to do it peacefully ( they tried to convince terrorists ) Result was ZERO! That just gave perfect excuse to Russia and Syria to wipe them out. And they keep doing it since again terrorists never respect “ending of hostilities” on the line of conflict.*So again Russia and SAA have great excuse to hit them again! Erdogan “happily” sponsors TERRORISTS not because some of them are Uighurs or Chechens but because they obey Turk secret services who are in charge in Idlib and do what they told to do. Often only Turk origin terrorist groups are very loyal and they have full Turk support others are just TOLERATED as long as they do not interfere with Turk interests. So you are wrong if you think that Turkey supports every terrorist. Turks have limited support for other terrorists because they make common front against Assad with pro-Turk terrorists. And because only pro-Turk terrorists are not strong enough to resist alone to SAA !


This conversation is getting out of proportions. I would like to finish it if you don’t mind. If not we will end up by writing a very long book. Take care.

Willing Conscience (The Truths


Willing Conscience (The Truths

“Turks were unable to do it peacefully ( they tried to convince terrorists ) Result was ZERO!.” I have to point out an error in your thinking, Erdogan does have control of just about all the terrorists and opposition fighters, without his help and support they’d lose everything, the SAA and Russia could wipe them all out in less than a week if Turkey wasn’t involved.


You simply can’t know that and even less prove that. Believe what you want, it’s not forbidden. To Libya they take only pro-Turk “moderate rebels”. Now why is that if they control everybody “completely”?

Willing Conscience (The Truths

I believe what my eyes see, and I can see all the terrorists and moderate rebels are all loosely under Erdogan’s control. And you may think Erdogan has more control over the so called moderate opposition but that’s not correct, you can’t control a rabid dog, you can only keep it on a leash until you need it, once you let it off the leash you better go inside and close the door. When Assad finished the Daraa/Quneitra campaign and started to attack Hama and Idlib, Erdogan then quickly forged an alliance between HTS and the FSA, but within 3 weeks the FSA had broken it and started fighting against HTS, so great control of the moderate opposition. The pro-Turk moderate rebels going to Libya slice 10 year old boys throats, they also eat SAA soldiers livers and trample on the corpses of people they just killed, they’re not that moderate.


“you can’t control a rabid dog, you can only keep it on a leash until you need it,” ?!?? So you are now trying to convince me of something I was telling you from the start?!? That was my point from the start that Erdogan does not control those terrorists completely. That only means that you are not reading my comments carefully. Maybe I’m wasting my time talking to you.

“10 year old boys throats, they also eat SAA soldiers livers” I was never supporter of terrorism so no need of making a list of their crimes to me.


“Erdogan’s been saying exactly the same thing just lately, his deeds show us he’s doing the exact opposite”

It is of NO IMPORTANCE since he accepted in Asatana agreement that in Idlib HTS terrorists must be eliminated. Since HTS and everybody refuses Asatana implementation that is green light for attack ! Russia doesn’t need more than that. And Turks can sit and watch. Or scream about “refugee problems” and “humanitarian crisis” when Tigers hit terrorists very hard. End result : Terrorists are losers! Turkey also.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

HTS and Al Nusra as well as a few other groups have been designated as terrorist entities recently, I think it was Astana number 9 or 10, but before that Erdogan refused to place them on the Turkish terrorist list, despite the fact they were on everybody else’s. But it’s meaningless to talk about designated terrorists and moderate opposition, Erdogan shuffles them in and out of any of the groups he feels they’re most suitable in, today the guy’s an Al Nusra or HTS fighter but tomorrow Erdogan could make him a NSA fighter, or a FSA fighter, or a NFL fighter, or a NFL fighter, you get the picture, so today he’s a terrorist and anyone can attack him, tomorrow Erogan makes him a moderate opposition fighter and no one’s allowed to attack him, so when you say,

“It is of NO IMPORTANCE since he accepted in Asatana agreement that in Idlib HTS terrorists must be eliminated. Since HTS and everybody refuses Asatana implementation that is green light for attack.”

I’ll ask, which ones are the terrorists now, am I allowed to kill him today, wasn’t he a terrorist just yesterday? The real answer is, “you can kill anyone shooting at you”, “moderate opposition or terrorists alike.


HTS are “terrorists” and they are being bombed (ask Turk “observation posts” if you don’t believe) Facts are there ….then you go with your interpretation. You are pouring water in vine and calling glass “half empty” instead of “half full”. Minimizing, diluting . And I don’t find that good way to support your argument.

“I’ll ask, which ones are the terrorists now” You sound like Erdogan now. Well, HTS are officially “terrorists” and everybody else who joins them in fight is also.

If tomorrow starts the peace the “terrorists” will still be all those with war crimes on their hands, all foreigners and those who refuse peace in Syria.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

“HTS are “terrorists” and they are being bombed (ask Turk “observation posts” if you don’t believe)”

No I don’t believe that, not even for one second, that’s incorrect, sorry, the only accurate part was “HTS are terrorists”.


“So I don’t think he has the support of the people at all anymore,” OK that’s Erdogan’s problem “Kurds, definitely sacrificial lambs” Kurds did that to themselves and they are still doing it since still stuck with traitor Americans… I have no pity for them. They’ll get what they deserve.

“The Muslim Brotherhood is the same as Isis” I wasn’t trying to justify them at all. Turks can influence Muslim Brotherhood not to attack Russian interests that’s all I’ve said ! If “Erdogan is the defacto leader” of MB than it is even better. I personally don’t think he is in charge of Chechen’s or Uighur’s at all. Russia needs Erdogan for that kind of influence when possible. When not possible they just go and kill the terrorists.

‘he hasn’t complied to any of the Astana agreements he made” He hasn’t but they are implemented by force anyway, since he agreed in Asatana on that as last option!

“I suspect that means they’re either totally unworried about him leaving” I think that you are completely wrong there. They have nothing to offer and they don’t know what to do . Turkey leaving NATO could be end of NATO or at least serious blow. But end of US & NATO in Syria for sure!

Willing Conscience (The Truths

“He hasn’t but they are implemented by force anyway, since he agreed in Asatana on that as last option.”

I don’t think you’ve understood the Astana agreements, Turkey’s commitments were to, 1, Remove all designated terrorists, HTS, Al Nusra and a few other groups, from the, 30 km exclusion zone, 2, Halt hostilities between moderate opposition groups and the SAA, 3, Remove all heavy weapons from the 30 km exclusion zone, 4, Allow the free movement of any civilians wanting to exit the combat area.

But instead for the last 14 Astana agreements we’ve had, 1, The terrorists not just operating in the exclusion zone, but also operating in expanded areas of control, 2, The moderate opposition not only attack the SAA, they also assist HTS and Al Nusra, 3, They haven’t removed a thing, in fact Turkey’s provided them with even more stuff, drones, Grad rocket launchers, heavy mortars, vehicles, ect, 4, The only free movement is towards Turkish Red Crescent refugee camps, no one’s allowed to go south towards Assad’s territory.

Putin should be forcing Erdogan to comply to all his commitments, Erdogan hasn’t complied to anything he’s actually promised to. ———–

“They have nothing to offer and they don’t know what to do.”

You must be kidding me, Erdogan has a fresh list made up for NATO, the EU and the US, it tells them every single little thing they could offer him to make him and them best buddies again, I won’t link the articles, just check any Turkish news sites and you’ll find out what he’s been asking for. And he’s even tried blackmailing them to no effect, they slapped him down like the insignificant and irrelevant nobody he is, Turkey won’t leave NATO, the Turks themselves wouldn’t let Erdogan do it anyway no matter how hard he tries to, but I doubt he would.

“Turkey will block NATO’s plan for the defence of Baltic countries unless the alliance recognises a Kurdish group as “terrorists”, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned.” https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/turkey-threatens-block-nato-baltic-defence-plan-ypg-191203083651527.html

And NATO said “Do what we say or just piss off wanker”. I’m ad libbing of course, so again check Turkish news to see what Erdogan said and then check and see what NATO did actually tell Erdogan, just about the same thing I said when I ad libbed.

Derek Johnson

Oh Benny when ever i feel down i read one of your posts lol.

It always ends with that second line.


Turkey is acting desperate as its terrorists are being decimated in Idlib and the limited option left is to scare Europe into pressuring Russia to stop the SAA rolling offensive by threatening to unleash the headchopper “refugees” into the EU. May not work this time.


Turkey might not be bluffing. They prefer populating border (Kurd) areas with pro Turk population. The rest they will be happy to send to Greece in appropriate moment I suppose. And how EU could “stop” Russia and SAA offensive exactly? By using even more “sanctions”? Or maybe by catting Russian gas? This problem, this war is of their making also. Some major NATO countries like UK, Germany, France have plenty of responsibility for war and mess they created. Time for them to help resolve problem and consume that poop they left in Syria one way or another.


How can they “pressure” Russia?!? More sanctions? If so, than that is joke ! You forget completely that secret services of UK, French and German (and of some other EU-NATO countries) Also their special ops troops were directly involved in conflict against Assad. So why would they need Turks to motivate them in opposition to Assad and Russia? The truth is they are IMPOTENT. They can’t do anything really.

Mehmet Aslanak

Merkel reaches her wallet for Erdogan.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

Turkish news, the news you don’t usually read if you want to know the truth, but not always.

“These attacks should come to an end immediately,” the Turkish presidency’s spokesman said Tuesday after Ankara sent a delegation to Moscow to discuss the flare-up. Presidential Spokesman İbrahim Kalın said Ankara was pressing for a new cease-fire to replace the previous agreement violated by the regime. The French Foreign Ministry also called for “an immediate de-escalation.”


And since there’s been a lull in Russian air support for the last 2 days, I’d say the new ceasefires about to be announced, just as soon as Putin can convince Assad to comply to it, hopefully Assad doesn’t. And the French Foreign Ministers announcement didn’t call for an immediate halt to operations or the cessation of hostilities against the designated terrorists, just “an immediate de-escalation”, which could mean operations have to now minimise the potential risk to civilians to avoid International criticism, but not necessarily stop altogether. Come on Putin, don’t cave into Erdogan again, this is the second time we’ve been at the brink of winning the war, don’t announce another ceasefire and stop the progress now, we’re at a tipping point already and just days away from complete victory, this is not the time to stop, it’s the time to end it all once and for all. BUST the Turkish border, let the flood of refugees give Erdogan something else to worry about, 10 to 15 thousand terrorists should keep him pretty busy.


You are permanently putting Russia in submission to Assad and Syrian interests above Russian interests. Of course that Russia has to follow first her own interests and not to be servant to anybody. They are not Assad’s private army. Also you are not saying all the truth. Not every Syrian citizen is for Assad. How many are they? That is something that elections will have to decide, if Assad is still legitimate for majority or not, since situation has changed after so many years.

Eliminations of the terrorists are possible through peace and after the negotiations also. China is also for peace option but not Assad. And Iran also is not backing Assad any more, the way they used to. Assad wants to take control of all Syria but he can’t do that alone. The only reason Russia has helped Assad in Syria (on his demand) was to exterminate terrorists. It is irrelevant if they are going to eliminate them through military or police actions (after peace arrives in Syria). It is not up to Assad to decide when and where Russia is going to stop those actions. Assad was not in Astana either. His power is equal to the real power of SAA which is great but very limited. Children in Syria need future and that future is not another several years of war that will totally bankrupt and ruin the country.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

“You are permanently putting Russia in submission to Assad and Syrian interests above Russian interests.”

No I’m not, I’m putting Syrian interests above Turkish interests, and I think the Russians should be doing the same thing too, since Assad’s proven to be a much more loyal ally than Erdogan even promised to be, but hasn’t.


“No I’m not” Yes you are. Russia is like every other country. A country with their own foreign policy and interests. But not dictated from other countries like all other countries are (except China and U.S. of course )

“I’m putting Syrian interests above Turkish interests” Than do that but not on Russian account. If you want to help you know where Syria is. You may even send some money to them.

“I think the Russians should be doing the same thing too, since Assad’s proven to be a much more loyal ally”

That is simply not true. Assad was not so “loyal”. Assad went to France first for help despite the fact that France has betrayed Gaddafi. When he understood that he will receive no support he went to Moscow in 2015 in the last moment ! So Assad is just like everybody else for Russia. True they have some kind of good relations now but that was NOT “alliance”. On the other hand those military bases are kind of Russian guarantee against foreign invasion a some kind of “alliance”. His father was officially allay of USSR and USSR had obligation to defend Syria. But Assad was never official allay of Russia. And he is still not official allay of Russia.

Everybody is more “loyal” than Erdogan. That is still not reason that Russia doesn’t try to seek for arrangements with Turkey also . They are very close for taking Turkey out of US influence and NATO. That is much more important for Russia than “Turk Stream” or even Syria. Assad is just one person and you are little bit in cult of personality…

Willing Conscience (The Truths

Assad provides Russia with it’s only sea port into the Mediterranean, otherwise they’d have to rely the Turkish straights to gain access, a de facto NATO controlled straights that would close if NATO and Turkey have any future disputes with Russia, Syria’s the failsafe seaport they can use if the worst comes to the worst, an absolute imperative necessity for Russia in the case of conflict. And Assad refused to accept the Saudi/Qatari proposal to pipe oil/gas into the EU, he stated at the time his main reason for refusing that offer was that it would inherently do too much harm to the Russian economy. That’s what I call loyalty. It may not be an official alliance but as you pointed out, his father made a military cooperation pact with the Soviets, and that has been continually renewed every 5 years since it was first enacted, that same act is still in effect now and has never ended.

“Assad went to France first for help despite the fact that France has betrayed Gaddafi. When he understood that he will receive no support he went to Moscow in 2015 in the last moment.”

Assad went to France to ask for help because Putin hadn’t offered him any, I know because I’m 56 and have followed this war from a time before it even looked like becoming a war, from 2007, that’s 4 years before it even started. Just after the very first shots were fired the Russian military command and advisors, as well as many heads of government, all called for a Russian military intervention in Syria, Putin refused and stated the Syrian conflict was an internal matter and the Syrians could deal with it themselves, but he should’ve listened to his advisors. Then when he finally did make a military commitment, all the same military command advisors, and heads of government all called for boots on the ground and he said no again, I think he should’ve taken their advice, ISIS, the US and Turkey have all gotten a foothold in Turkey due to Putin’s failure to follow his own military experts advice.

Russia should be seeking good relations with Turkey, there’s no disputing that, but Erdogan has 3 years of political life left [he’s even predicted his party will lose the next election], so what’s Russia going do when the opposition parties form the next Turkish government in 3 years time, go back to the drawing board, he’s playing a game of snakes and ladders now. I’ve done my research and as far as I can see all the Turkish opposition parties that have any likelihood of forming government all have this in common, They like the Russians but favour the US and NATO diplomatically and definitely don’t want to harm the US/NATO alliance, however they are all in favour of increasing trade and economic ties with Russia, but not at the expense of their US/NATO alliance. If that means in 3 years time Putin’s not just back to square one in terms of splitting NATO, he’s back to minus figures again, I think he’s made the biggest mistake of his career by backing Erdogan. When the US/NATO alliance ask the new Turkish government to hand over the Russian S-400’s in 3 years time I think they will, I wonder what Putin will be thinking then, but Erdogan could even hand them over himself before then though.

Icarus Tanović

Oh please, give us a break, come up with something new you ugly punk. Erdogan will fall. That will be the sight to look at.

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