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JULY 2022

Ignoring The Middle East At One’s Peril: Turkey Plays Games In NATO

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Written by James M. Dorsey

Amid speculation about a reduced US military commitment to security in the Middle East, Turkey has spotlighted the region’s ability to act as a disruptive force if its interests are neglected.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan set off alarm bells this week, declaring that he was not “positive” about possible Finnish and Swedish applications for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

NATO membership is contingent on a unanimous vote in favour by the organisation’s 30 members. Turkey has NATO’s second-largest standing army.

The vast majority of NATO members appear to endorse Finnish and Swedish membership. NATO members hope to approve the applications at a summit next month.

A potential Turkish veto would complicate efforts to maintain trans-Atlantic unity in the face of the Russian invasion.

Mr. Erdogan’s pressure tactics mirror the maneuvers of his fellow strongman, Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban. Mr. Orban threatens European Union unity by resisting a bloc-wide boycott of Russian energy.

Earlier, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia rejected US requests to raise oil production in an effort to lower prices and help Europe reduce its dependence on Russian energy.

The two Gulf states appear to have since sought to quietly backtrack on their refusal. In late April, France’s TotalEnergies chartered a tanker to load Abu Dhabi crude in early May for Europe, the first such shipment in two years.

Saudi Arabia has quietly used its regional pricing mechanisms to redirect from Asia to Europe Arab “medium,” the Saudi crude that is the closest substitute for the main Russian export blend, Urals, for which European refineries are configured.

Mr. Erdogan linked his NATO objection to alleged Finnish and Swedish support for the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), which has been designated a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the United States, and the EU.

The PKK has waged a decades-long insurgency in southeast Turkey in support of Kurds’ national, ethnic, and cultural rights. Kurds account for up to 20 per cent of the country’s 84 million population.

Turkey has recently pounded PKK positions in northern Iraq in a military operation named Operation Claw Lock.

Turkey is at odds with the United States over American support for Syrian Kurds in the fight against the Islamic State. Turkey asserts that America’s Syrian Kurdish allies are aligned with the PKK.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu warned that Turkey opposes a US decision this week to exempt from sanctions against Syria regions controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

“This is a selective and discriminatory move,” Mr. Cavusoglu said, noting that the exemption did not include Kurdish areas of Syria controlled by Turkey and its Syrian proxies.

Referring to the NATO membership applications, Mr. Erdogan charged that “Scandinavian countries are like some kind of guest house for terrorist organisations. They’re even in parliament.”

Mr. Erdogan’s objections relate primarily to Sweden, with Finland risking becoming collateral damage.

Sweden is home to a significant Kurdish community and hosts Europe’s top Kurdish soccer team that empathises with the PKK and Turkish Kurdish aspirations. In addition, six Swedish members of parliament are ethnic Kurds.

Turkey scholar Howard Eissenstat suggested that Turkey’s NATO objection may be a turning point. “Much of Turkey’s strategic flexibility has come from the fact that its priorities are seen as peripheral issues for its most important Western allies. Finnish and Swedish entry into NATO, in the current context, absolutely not peripheral,” Mr. Eissenstat tweeted.

The Turkish objection demonstrates the Middle East’s potential to derail US and European policy in other parts of the world.

Middle Eastern states walk a fine line when using their potential to disrupt to achieve political goals of their own. The cautious backtracking on Ukraine-related oil supplies demonstrates the limits and/or risks of Middle Eastern brinkmanship.

So does the fact that Ukraine has moved NATO’s center of gravity to northern Europe and away from its southern flank, which Turkey anchors.

Moreover, Turkey risks endangering significant improvements in its long-strained relations with the United States.

Turkish mediation in the Ukraine crisis and military support for Ukraine prompted US President Joe Biden to move ahead with plans to upgrade Turkey’s fleet of F-16 fighter planes and discuss selling it newer, advanced F-16 models even though Turkey has neither condemned Russia nor imposed sanctions.

Some analysts suggest Turkey may use its objection to regain access to the United States’ F-35 fighter jet program. The US cancelled in 2019 a sale of the jet to Turkey after the NATO member acquired Russia’s S-400 anti-missile defence system.

Mr. Erdogan has “done this kind of tactic before. He will use it as leverage to get a good deal for Turkey,” said retired US Navy Admiral James Foggo, dean of the Center for Maritime Strategy.

A top aide to Mr. Erdogan, Ibrahim Kalin, appeared to confirm Mr. Foggo’s analysis. “We are not closing the door. But we are basically raising this issue as a matter of national security for Turkey,” Mr. Kalin said, referring to the Turkish leader’s NATO remarks. “Of course, we want to have a discussion, a negotiation with Swedish counterparts.”

Spelling out Turkish demands, Mr. Kalin went on to say that “what needs to be done is clear: they have to stop allowing PKK outlets, activities, organisations, individuals and other types of presence to…exist in those countries.”

Mr. Erdogan’s brinkmanship may have its limits, but it illustrates that one ignores the Middle East at one’s peril.

However, engaging Middle Eastern autocrats does not necessarily mean ignoring their rampant violations of human rights and repression of freedoms.

For the United States and Europe, the trick will be developing a policy that balances accommodating autocrats’, at times, disruptive demands, often aimed at ensuring regime survival, with the need to remain loyal to democratic values amid a struggle over whose values will underwrite a 21st-century world order.

However, that would require a degree of creative policymaking and diplomacy that seems to be a rare commodity.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist and scholar, a Senior Fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute and Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and blog, The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer.

A podcast version is available on Soundcloud, Itunes, Spotify, Spreaker, and Podbean.


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He knows when he has leverage and to use it.


Erdogan criticizing Sweden for hosting radical islams….the world is such a shit show now. It was Erdogan who exported them all and demanded billions to not export even more.

Muhammed Allah جثث فاسدة مصاصة الديك

It was the Zionist Jews who decided that Zionist-dominated European governments should import Islamists so that Europeans could have the same problems as Israel.

In this way, Israel hopes to have European allies in the fight against the Islamists when the great war comes.

The Zionists know that sooner or later there will be religious wars in Europe that will benefit the Zionists in the United States and Israel.

Erdogan saw only an opportunity to throw petrol on the fire and blackmail Europe for money.



cucked out commies watch through the closet door as Scandinavia and Turkiye iron out the prenuptials in Syria and Ukraine.


Obama did only one (very belated) correct thing: trying to depose Erdogan, ditching the DAESH (ISIS) and aligning with the demo-communist Kurds, even if only in Syria. Erdogan never did anything right in terms ethical or moral (he may pretend in speech but otherwise he’s just a corrupt regional-imperialist and BFF of Israel).


NATO does need turkey since they have power in the Black Sea, and predictions about what will happen next? Another coup it tukey keeps going against nato?

Chris Gr

Yes, they will probably bring Akcener to the table. For Greece, both the Islamists and the nationalists are bad.

Stephen Obi Emekekwue

Turkiye is NATO’S Biggest”WEAK-LINK!”,It Will Be Very Interesting 🤔 To See What The U.S. Would Do If,Turkiye By Any chance Change’s Government And Side’s?!.After All Erdogan’s ISLAMIC-NATIONALIST JUSTICE PARTY HAS SIGNIFICANT STRONG DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION AND HE ISN’T 100% MILITARY COUP D’ETAT PROOF?!. Anything Other Than His Regime is Conceivably Possible. A NEUTRAL-TURKIYE,OR WORSE PRO-RUSSIAN, TURKIYE WOULD UPSET THE ENTIRE SOUTH FLANK OF NATO….

Last edited 1 month ago by Stephen Obi Emekekwue
Chris Gr

Turkey is becoming pro-Iranian and pro-Muslim Brotherhood.


Biden is withholding the F-35’s that Turkey ordered because they purchased the S-300 system from Russia. Something tells me that Turkey will require those planes be delivered in order for them to lift their objections. Yet another Biden blunder.


S400 from Russia. 😉


correction. purchase S-400


The US F35’s are useless and expensive vanity ornaments.

I suspect that Erdogan is secretly pleased to NOT be able to spend billions of dollars for war junk :)

Chris Gr

This is not a case. We Greece also have the S 300 system and we don’t have a problem with the US. This is made up to try to depose Erdogan.

S Balu



“For the United States and Europe, the trick will be developing a policy that balances accommodating autocrats’, at times, disruptive demands, often aimed at ensuring regime survival, with the need to remain loyal to democratic values amid a struggle over whose values will underwrite a 21st-century world order.”

Who ever cobbles this BS together (or believes it) has to be a total meth wasted snaggle-toothed cannibal demon spirit working overtime for his Satanic overlords in the bowls of Washing town and the sewer of Natostan.

With trash like the cadaver in chief in USSA, the manly girls and girly men of Natostan, hollow o gram krautman in an empty suit in Germanistan and the rest of the Rothschild transgendermutant retards running Uruppp, having poisoned their sheeple with the covaid$ caper…… “democratic values”….LOL!


Hope Erdogan upends the NATO apple cart via a veto Turkish slap.


Sincere thanks for Erdogan from Finland! Dont give up, the norm Finn is shocked by our corrupt treasonous politicians Nato drive.


With more NATO members the more likely a war among them and the less unified and more power to the USA. I expect the competition for the mid east to heat up with the US competing with Turkey and Israel and many others for oil. I would praise Mr. Erdogan’s exploitations of NATO.


FI and S are inline with EU on the PKK matter. But it would be great if Turkey sends S400 + F16s to Ukraine and gets F35 for it.

Chris Gr

Swedes and Finns are not bowing down to the sultan and that’s good.

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