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DECEMBER 2021

Idlib Question And Prospects Of New Syrian-Turkish Confrontation

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The southern part of Greater Idlib remains the main point of instability in Syria. The military situation, which had temporarily stabilized after the end of the Turkish attack on the Syrian Army codenamed “Operation Spring Shield”, is once again deteriorating. And this time it seems that even the Turkish leadership, who have made extensive efforts to defend the so-called ‘moderate opposition’, incidentally consisting mostly of al-Qaeda terrorists, from the bloody Assad regime, is forced to admit this.

On March 5, Turkey and Russia signed a de-escalation deal that put an end to the open military confrontation in Idlib between the Syrian Army and the Turkish Army and formally created a demilitarized zone along the M4 highway between the towns of Saraqib and Jisr al-Shughur. Under the deal, heavy weapons and radical militant formations had to be withdrawn from the demilitarized zone, Russia and Turkey launched joint patrols along the M4 and the highway was to be reopened for civilian traffic. The south part of the M4 highway was formally the zone of Russian responsibility, whereas the north part was the Turkish one. As of early September however, the majority of the points of this deal have not been implemented. Radicals, members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other al-Qaeda-linked  groups such as the Turkistan Islamic Party and Houras al-Din still remain deployed in the supposed demilitarized zone. No heavy weapons were withdrawn and the M4 highway has not been reopened. Artillery duels and firefights regularly erupt on the contact line between the Syrian Army and militants protected by Turkey. Joint Russian-Turkish patrols regularly become targets of attacks by Turkey’s own proxies. On September 1, Russia and Turkey even started a series of drills simulating the repelling of attacks on joint patrols on the M4, including the neutralization of subversive groups, the evacuation of damaged equipment and the provision of medical help to injured personnel. Clearly, this does not look like a successful implementation of the March 5 deal. At the core of the issues are the contradictions existing between Turkey and the Iranian-Syrian-Russian alliance. Ankara is not interested in neutralizing the Idlib terrorists because they are the core of its influence in northwestern Syria. Without these groups, even the current Turkish military contingent deployed in Idlib would not be enough to keep the territories they have seized under control. Expansion into northern and northwestern Syria are open goals of President Erdogan and his Neo-Ottoman project. The neutralization of terrorists, the political settlement of the conflict and the stabilization of Syria promoted by the other side of this deal goes contrary to Turkish tactical interests.

In these conditions, it does not look like joint drills along the M4 will be enough to deal with the situation. Further to these, the sides could agree on several long- and mid-term steps that would allow for progress in the demilitarization and de-escalation processes to be achieved. These could include the following elements:

– To assign two officers, one Turkish and one Russian, to their own zone of responsibility  where they would be jointly responsible for the implementation of the March 5 agreement on the ground. This should remove potential barriers and bureaucratic hurdles in their communication.

– To avoid potential duplication or clashing in the actions of the sides during the implementation of the demilitarized agreement, each side should identify one authorized officer to make decisions and be responsible for the implementation of the deal on the ground.

– To form a joint military, diplomatic and information group to work on the development of a joint Russian-Turkish position regarding the situation in the M4 zone, to release official comments on developments, including attacks and other incidents and to develop ways to implement the deal.

In a 3 month perspective these steps might offer a chance of avoiding a new round of escalation, at least partly stabilizing the situation on the M4 highway and improving Russian-Turkish coordination in the area. If the situation develops in a positive direction and further, the mid-term goal would be the start of coordinated pin-point operations against irreconcilable armed groups, including those involved in terrorist or organized criminal activity, on both sides of the contact line. The neutralization of these groups would open the way for a potential diplomatic settlement of the situation. The format of this settlement would depend on the regional and global situation at the moment of the implementation of this scenario, and, in any case, would involve the creation of a political group representing Turkish interests in Idlib.

At the same time, the inability of Turkey and Russia to implement the March 5 deal in the long run would inevitably lead to a new round of military confrontation in Idlib. This scenario potentially includes Turkish attempts to push back the Syrian Army further and to annex northwestern Syria under the pretext of the alleged inability of the Assad government to guarantee stability and security in the region. However, this kind of Turkish action could easily backfire. In February-March 2020, the Turkish Armed Forces already failed to deliver a devastating blow to the Syrian Army. A new open military confrontation with Syria may cost even more and lead to even more dire results. Given the growing Russian-Iranian military cooperation and the developing conflict with Egypt and France, Turkey would immediately find itself caught between two stools. Therefore, at best, Turkey would be able to keep the current status quo in southern Idlib or its forces might even be forced to retreat, especially in the event of  direct Iranian involvement in the battle.

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Cromwell

If anyone thinks the Turks will leave that area without being thrown out needs their head tested,so Russia had better make its mind up where they stand if it kicks off between Turkey and Syria.

Fog of War

Putin stands with the Zios.

HiaNd

@Faggot of War

Only Sunni and Shia (by fighting each other) stand with Zionist interests!
Putin was always standing with Russian interests only from the start !
That is why Russia has become from bankrupted country a World Power again, you stupid Sunni Russia hating cunt !

Icarus Tanović

When theyrelize that Vietnam is no good, it will be leaving for them.

HiaNd

You don’t understand much what is happening behind curtains and base everything on appearances to have judgment.

Russia didn’t ever started anything they couldn’t finish.
Ukraine and Syria are just “work in progress” and nothing else.
Nothing worthy to start WW3 for, but worthy enough, to stick around and never leave them till all problems resolved.

Cromwell

So what happens if it kicks off again big style and the Turds throw everything at the SAA including jet aircraft?

HiaNd

Russia can’t be responsible for Turk actions but Russia can stop them.

Will you come and apologies in public for being bot and accusing Russia with another conspiracy, if Russia stops (again) that kind of Turk intervention?
Because they did that when Turks have sent F-16 to attack SAA and Russia have sent their SU-35 to stop them. As far as I remember Turks have turned around and never came back.
And that was not because of Syrian or Iranian aviation but because of Russia.
During the same Turk offensive they have lost 40 soldiers, killed by Russian bombs in some buildings they were hiding.
And it was not the 1st time that Russia was sending warning signals to Turkey about their excessive aggressiveness against SAA.
And it wasn’t once that Russia was bombing terrorists including a Turk terrorists.
Of course Russia doesn’t have big presence in Syria and can’t stop huge Turk forces invasion… In that case that would be equal to declaration of war because even Russian soldiers would get killed

Cromwell

Well thats good,thats all i expect the Russians to do,no more.

Sauron

Iranian involvement will get Israel involved and get them closer to Turkey and automatically delete Egypt from the equation. Hence Turkey will end up with one front only. In any case they are unlikely to see 2 formidable enemies against them at the same time.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

Blah blah blah, the proposed long and mid-term steps that would allow for progress in the demilitarization and de-escalation processes sound like a load of crap to me, meaningless words with absolutely no potential to change anything, just more of the same old crap.
But this is an interesting thing to say,

“the mid-term goal would be the start of coordinated pin-point operations against irreconcilable armed groups, including those involved in terrorist or organized criminal activity, on both sides of the contact line.”

The Turks kill the anti Astana agreement protesters north of the M4 and the Russians kill the anti Astana agreement protesters south of the M4, but the US already kill the anti Astana agreement protesters for the Turks anyway, so the Turks don’t really need the Russians to do that, and those US ninja missiles chop up the anti Astana agreement protesters without killing innocent civilians so why not stick to a winning theme.
And what about this little gem hidden away in a corner,

“in any case, would involve the creation of a political group representing Turkish interests in Idlib.”

As if they need another political group to represent their interests in Syria, they already have their military might there doing that, so what do they need another political group for, nothing.
The Syrian Interim Government has failed so why try again, HTS has beaten Turkey at it’s own game and now Turkey wants another bite at the cherry, no sorry once is enough, if the Turkish backed Syrian Interim Government has become so illegitimate because of HTS’s political maneuverings it’s just too bad, Turkey shouldn’t be allowed to start again.
Putin should be saying no to Erdogan, he should be pointing out that currently the HTS backed Salvation Government now politically controls more than 75% of the occupied territories, which means the Turkish backed Syrian Interim Government has no legal right to exist in Syria, it shouldn’t even be included in the Astana agreements or resolution 2254 since it only represents 25% of the opposition population.
But Putin’s doing everything he can to uphold the Astana agreements and quickly implement resolution 2254, in fact the US Turkey and Russia are all doing their utmost to see that political agenda progress to its final outcome, so I hope they all fail, and from my perspective they’re already failing, Assad with HTS’s help has more than hobbled their [Syrian Interim Government] horse in the race. :]

HiaNd

You make it sound like Russia have helped installing HTS in power indirectly which is total nonsense.
No agreement based on compromise is ever perfect and those HTS monkeys can be removed from Idlib if there is political will to do it, but that will take time.

What is alternative to Astana than if Astana according to you is not possible to implement?
Nobody is interested in investing in war in Syria any longer (including Iran) so what would be alternative option?

Willing Conscience (The Truths

No I said Assad is actually helping HTS take over political control of Idlib, the Russians are totally opposed to this development, so you’ve misunderstood me.

The HTS monkeys trade with the Syrian Government, they arrange prisoner swaps with the Syrian Government, and they’ve also refrained from any hostile activities against the Syrian Government for approximately 6 months now, and most importantly they’ve recently began positively revising their political agenda too.
But the Turkish backed proxies have been doing the exact opposite, they still want Assad removed from power and they still fight against the SAA, but HTS want to do a deal with Assad and they no longer want to fight Assad or the SAA, so they’re 2 different breeds of monkey’s now.
Assad and HTS are totally opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood in every way, but Turkey and the Turkish proxies and their Interim Salvation Government are the Muslim Brotherhood, so now Assad’s cleverly using HTS and the Salvation Government to weaken the moderate oppositions political viability, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

It is possible to implement resolution 2254 but is that really a good thing.
The original resolution that Russia, Iran, and Turkey drew up was way too lopsided, it gave Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood a 50% say in the rewriting of the Syrian Constitution and the ensuing political process, that’s why Assad refused to accept the proposal for nearly 5 years, then when the UN offered to make a new deal with Assad and amend some of the resolution to better suit Assad, he accepted their proposal the same day they made it.
So 5 years of saying no to his Russian and Iranian allies and just one day to say yes to the UN’s [his enemy] new offer. The new UN resolution only allows Turkey a 33% say in Syria’s new political process.
Both versions of resolution 2254 allow foreign powers to have a say in Syria’s political future, that’s wrong, only the Syrian people themselves should have a say in their own futures, so whether it’s the old Russian/Iranian/Turkish resolution 2254 or the new amended UN version they both allow foreign powers way too much say in something that isn’t even their business.

“Also I don’t remember U.S. being in Astana or Sochi so why are you talking about US?”

The Astana agreements were devised for one purpose only, to swiftly implement the 2015 Russian/Turkish/Iranian UN resolution 2254, that’s the only purpose for the Astana agreements, so the US has nothing to do with Astana or Sochi, but they were given political legitimacy by resolution 2254.
The Russians, Iranians, and the Turks all gave the US political legitimacy to be in Syria in the same way they gave their own Syrian Interim Government political legitimacy to be in Syria, that’s what the resolution does, it gives foreign powers political legitimacy to be involved in Syria’s internal political affairs. The Russian/Turkish/Iranian version gave foreign powers a 50% say, the new UN/US version only gives foreign powers a 33% say, that’s why Assad reluctantly accepted the new UN offer, it was the lesser of 2 evils.
So when you ask what’s the US got to do with anything, I say it has everything to do with resolution 2254, because the US, Turkey, Iran and Russia all have something to benefit from resolution 2254 being implemented.
The people being killed in Idlib are all anti resolution 2254 activests, the US is killing them with drone strikes, the Russians are bombing them with their aircraft, and the Turks are sitting back watching them being killed with no objections, and recently they’re even conducted live fire drills with Russia to help deter and put a stop to the anti resolution 2254 protesters, and that’s despite the fact the anti resolution 2254 protesters only get support from Turkey and are actually on Turkey’s side.
Why do you think the US, Russia, and Turkey all kill the anti Astana/resolution 2254 protesters, it’s because all parties want to implement resolution 2254. When it’s implemented it will legitimise both the US backed autonomous Government in north east Syria, and also legitimise the Turkish backed Syrian Interim Government in north west Syria, look at Iraq and the KRG, that’s exactly what resolution 2254 will do for Syria, but Syria will have an extra government, 3 in total.
The Syrian Interim Government only represents 25% of the population in occupied Latakia/Hama/Idlib/Aleppo, and yet they’re the very people that Astana agreement/resolution 2254 give LEGITIMATE political power to, but Assad does business with HTS, and they politically control 75% of the occupied territories, so I think Assad’s a lot smarter than either Russia or Iran gives him credit for, he may be dealing with an internationally recognised terrorist organization, but at least he’s dealing with 75% of the population when he does, not just 25% of them, and he’s not dealing/negotiating with foreign powers either, so really smart I’d say.
Pro Russian/Iranian supporters ignore one important fact, Syria’s allies Russia and Iran sat down with Turkey [Syria’s enemy] and drew up a political resolution that effectively gave foreign powers a 50% say in Syria’s political future, and from 2015 until 2019 Assad refused to accept their proposal. Assad was never allowed to contribute to the resolution or participate in it’s drafting, he was never allowed to contribute to any of the subsequent Astana agreements, in fact I think he was only allowed to have an attending observer at the last 2 agreements [16 in total] but Syria still didn’t get a say in anything, they were just allowed to observe the meetings and ongoing negotiations. :[

HiaNd

“Assad is actually helping HTS”
All that because of Muslim Brotherhood?!
Reading your comment (if true) shows me the magnitude of my ignorance on the subject
“US is killing them with drone strikes, the Russians are bombing them with their aircraft”
So you are saying that they are on the same side now, practically ‘partners”?!?
But even so they are still killing HTS terrorists (they can’t be called something else now only because Assad accepts them as lesser evil )
If US, Russia, Iran , Turkey have common enemy agreement in HTS enemy why is Iran and even SAA attacked by Jews and why are those Russian – US incidents on the road coming up all the time?
Also how come they all can’t get rid of the HTS if they all have agreed to do it ?!?
That those countries are trading with the Syria’s future and interests I can imagine that… But that they are after that blocked by insignificant organization like HTS I can not imagine that.

“but Syria will have an extra government, 3 in total”
If all that is true I would act like Assad of course and fight against such bullshit.

But what he can do now? He can’t go against will of Iran his official “allay” and Russia who came to”help”against terrorism?

That explains why all these Iranian and Russian inactivity in Idlib and SAA practically left alone to fight…
And those attacks on Russian-Turk patrol’s on M4, who is that?
HTS or Turk terrorists (since Russians are targeted mostly)?

So 2254 ‘protesters” are actually what one would call pro-Turkey anti Assad opposition who are tamed by Turks themselves to accept new “reality”?!!
So situation is much more cynical and down to the ground agreement of “big boys” over Syria’s destiny is on…. While newspapers are still writing usual bullshit about war in Syria to entertain and write bollocks as usual?

I don’t see dealing with HTS terrorist as “smart” but desperate move by Assad because that is his last option I suppose.
Just postponing of the inevitable.

No anti Muslim Brotherhood Arab country is ready to step in and help him.
So there is nothing really that he can do alone with the “help” of the terrorists he was fighting till yesterday….
Before being “supporter” of Russia I am supporter of truth and justice.
You can not accuse Russia and Iran of simple betrayal because today’s situation also reflects the real balance of the forces on the ground. The real-politics accepted by every normal country. The desires and ambitions are one thing and possibilities another…

Iran as official allay of Syria is not ready to invest more in Syria than what they did already. Russia came to “help” against terrorists but not to the extent that everybody was expecting it to be. State interests and pragmatism have prevailed.
And since Assad was fighting on credit(with non existent economy) and on favors those are spent… and this is “reality” of the situation that show’s balance of the forces on the ground.
Is it honest, just, fair?!
No it isn’t! It is just how this world functions , on interests, personal interests.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

The Muslim Brotherhood is the key to everything.

Iran is also a very good friend of the Brotherhood, that’s why the Iranian’s and the Turks weren’t fighting each other between mid 2018 and the end of 2019.

Don’t rely on just one or two sources of info to understand Syria, read everything from everyone, even the opposition sources, that way you can fill out all the bits your own side leaves out.

No they aren’t partners they just have common agenda’s, at least Turkey and the US do, and Russia’s just doing what Erdogan wants them to so they can stay on his good side, they have wider concerns that force them to pander to Erdogan’s demands.

No one’s killing HTS fighters now, the SAA isn’t anymore and the US doesn’t at all and never has, and the Russian’s don’t either, but they do attack the TIP [Uighurs] from time to time and the Uighurs are allied to HTS, but they’re also allied to the Turks and the Muslim Brotherhood too which HTS views as an enemy, so it’s very complicated to work out the faction alliances when they’re allied to groups they actually oppose.
The groups that oppose the Astana agreement are 1, HTS and their allies, 2, the designated terrorist groups that Turkey supports, 3, some of the legitimate opposition groups that Turkey supports
But HTS and the Turkish backed legitimate opposition don’t actually attack Turkey, it’s the designated terrorists that Turkey supports that are now attacking Turkey and Russia, and the reason they do is Turkey left them out of the Astana agreements. So even though all the designated terrorists are opposed to resolution 2254 and the Astana agreements, only the designated terrorists that Turkey supports who are violently protesting and attacking the Russian and Turkish patrols, they want Erdogan to renegotiate the Astana agreements so they can be included in Syria’s political future, but Russia keeps saying no.

The Arab league [AL] countries are more than willing [and able] to help Assad now, they’ve already helped Assad more than most media outlets are even aware.
Jordan brokered the reconciliation between the Southern Front Alliance [60,000 strong] and the Syrian government back in early 2017, they put pressure on the US and Israel to allow Assad to remain in power and both parties agreed in June 2018, they closed and opened the border at Assad’s request during the 2018 Daraa/Quneitra campaign.
Then after late 2018 many of the AL countries defied international objections and reopened their embassies with Syria re-establishing diplomatic relations, which then allowed them to diplomatically oppose Turkey’s interventions into Syria.
The Saudis spent hundreds of millions of dollars on Turkish opposition media and political opposition groups that were opposed Erdogan, remember when the journalist Khashoggi was murdered, that’s when the Saudis were spending the most in Turkey to try to discredit Erdogan and the AK Party. The Saudis even offered 100 billion in reconstruction help but Assad refused the offer, Assad can’t forgive them for the misery they caused in the first place.
Most of the AL counties have been diplomatically the most vocally opposed to Turkey’s interventions into Iraq Syria and Libya, we don’t hear about it on SF or other pro Russian media outlets but they’re actually Assad strongest allies when it comes to opposition to Turkish intervention, they despise the Muslim Brotherhood.

I accuse both Russia and Iran of being disloyal to Assad and they started being disloyal way back in 2015 [resolution 2254], and I didn’t realize just how disloyal they’d been until late 2018, but since then I think they’ve both just gotten even worse, there is no loyalty to Assad, just loyalty to their own agendas.

Iran and Russia won the war way back in August 2018, since then it’s become Erdogan and the Muslim Brotherhoods war, and Iran and Russia have allowed Erdogan to perpetuate this sorry war long beyond its expiry date.
Just before the Daraa/Quneitra campaign commenced both the US and Israel said they had no problem with Assad remaining in political power, Trump told the FSA to reconcile with the Syrian Government and when they refused he ended all support for the FSA and kicked them out of al Tanf, he also warned the FSA that the US wouldn’t support them militarily if they fought against the Syrian Government and they didn’t.
Back in June 2018 they all said Assad could remain in power, only Erdogan said Assad couldn’t, and Iran and Russia have been the ones allowing Erdogan to keep up his stance for the last 2 years, and only recently have we had any sense of change from Erdogan.
Erdogan can’t comply to the protocols of resolution 2254 yet, the US already has it’s books in order and now they’re all waiting for Erdogan to get his act together, but the simple fact that HTS now controls 75% of the occupied territories, and some of the groups Turkey actually supports are now attacking Turkey, means the conditions for implementing resolution 2254 are becoming next to impossible to deal with. :]

Everyone says Assad owes Putin for everything he’s done for Syria and I want to cry, it’s as if no one is aware of the real truth, most of you are much too young to remember some of the things I do, and even if I tell some people they still won’t believe me, and that’s because they can’t find it with a google search, I can’t find some links the next day with crappy google.
Assad could’ve paved the Syrian streets with gold if he’d accepted the Saudi/Qatari proposal to pipe oil and gas direct to Europe via an undersea link from Syria, and when he was asked why he didn’t accept the offer he said something like this,
“I can’t accept this offer because I know just how much it will hurt my ally Russia’s economy and I would never do that”.
Russia and the Saudis were involved in a bitter trade war at the time and Russia was looking at a 30% or more reduction in export revenue, if Assad would’ve accepted the Saudi offer he would’ve become richer and the Russian’s would”ve become poorer, Assad owes Putin nothing, Putin still owes Assad.

HiaNd

“Assad could’ve paved the Syrian streets with gold if he’d accepted the Saudi/Qatari proposal”
And why was impossible for pipeline to go over the Jordan and Israel than?!??
All being US allays and US having the biggest interest to kick Russia out of the EU market would have been perfect objective for US(if Saudi-Qatar offer was so good and so concrete)
I very much doubt in that story.
I am sure that US would arrange everything with Israel and Jews would be happy to take profit from transit?
I have no ways or means to verify the veracity of all the things you have said here. One thing is sure your understanding of the complexity of the subject is bigger than mine and your general knowledge on the situation goes above mine as well. How much of what you say is truth and how much is hidden even from relatively well informed people like you, we will never find out.
I can only accept everything you say with the grain of salt since not in position to verify most of this that you have said.
What you don’t mention is the fact that it was Russia in 2015 that has saved Assad and Iran from disaster. So Russia did already from the start plenty for Assad! Even if they stopped to “help” in 2018 (which they didn’t) they had all moral rights to withdrew from participation in that war. But they have kept helping.

The fact that countries look for their interest is not new to me and I see nothing unusual or something horribly wrong in that. Syrian war was on credit since Syrian economy was non existent for quite some time. So when that credit was spent it is logical that efforts of SAA have slowed down and help dwindled as well.

I am not happy with what is happening with Syria but there are endless list of countries that are destroyed by neocolonialist US and West.
Libya is one of them.

There was half of the planet fighting against Assad and you can blame Iran and Russia as much as you want, but they had their losses in men and war material as well.
The only reason Assad is still alive is because of Iranian help and Russian arrival that have saved them all.
Huge majority of Syrians were not there to defend Syria and Assad that is another reality you do not mention

Also there is no direct Russian betrayal since Russia has no written agreement
with Syria about defending them (there might be agreement with Iran but
I don’t know much about that agreement so no comment)
All in all I accept most of it of what you say simple because beyond my competence.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

The Qatar proposal wasn’t actually the undersea link to Greece, I made a mistake sorry, the Iranian proposal was the one with the undersea link to Greece.
It’s really hard to find anything relevant to the actual events but here’s a couple of helpful articles.

“In 2009, Qatar proposed to run a natural gas pipeline through Syria and Turkey to Europe. Instead, Assad forged a pact with Iraq and Iran to run a pipeline eastward, allowing those Shia-dominated countries access to the European natural gas market while denying access to Sunni Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The latter states, it appears, are now attempting to remove Assad so they can control Syria and run their own pipeline through Turkey.”

http://armedforcesjournal.com/pipeline-politics-in-syria/

This is a really good read for a more comprehensive understanding.

“Qatar, today the world’s largest exporter of LNG, largely to Asia, wants the same EU market that Iran and Syria eye. For that, they would build pipelines to the Mediterranean. Here is where getting rid of the pro-Iran Assad is essential. In 2009 Qatar approached Bashar al-Assad to propose construction of a gas pipeline from Qatar’s north Field through Syria on to Turkey and to the EU. Assad refused, citing Syria’s long friendly relations with Russia and Gazprom. That refusal combined with the Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline agreement in 2011 ignited the full-scale Saudi and Qatari assault on Assad’s power, financing al Qaeda terrorists, recruits of Jihadist fanatics willing to kill Alawite and Shi’ite “infidels” for $100 a month and a Kalishnikov. The Washington neo-conservative warhawks in and around the Obama White House, along with their allies in the right-wing Netanyahu government, were cheering from the bleachers as Syria went up in flames after spring 2011.”

https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-secret-stupid-saudi-us-deal-on-syria/5410130

But I knew all this long before the war in Syria even started, Israel and the USA have long wanted to end Europe’s dependence on Russian gas, and the French came up with over 100 different proposals to do exactly that before 2007, so this has been a long term strategy for the west for a very long time.
These articles tell us the Saudi/Qatari proposal was made in 2009 but I can assure you it was made at least 2 years before that date, I was following the day to day events back then and I was using more than a dozen sources of media every day for my info.
I was quite obsessed back then and totally pro Russian and pro Iranian, but now I’m not pro anyone anymore and no longer totally obsessed, I’ve become too disheartened by the geopolitics and don’t bother as much now, sadly now I realize they’re all as bad as each other.
There are no good guys, just the common people are good, the leaders never are, but in saying that Assad is one of the best leaders.

Some people believe Putin saved Syria but that’s not the case, Putin neglected Syria is more like the real truth.

When the uprising first began the Russian military suggested they should assist Assad put down the revolt, they actually wanted to put Russian boots on the ground to help Assad but Putin said no, he said it was an internal dispute and Assad could deal with it himself. But as were all well aware it wasn’t an internal dispute at all, it was a foreign inspired and financed civil war, and Putin let it get out of hand which was his first mistake.
Then later even though Isis was running amok next door in Iraq Putin did nothing at all to bolster Syria’s eastern border, any moron with half a brain would’ve been fully aware that Isis was only a stones throw away from invading Syria, but Putin did nothing at all again, and Isis came knocking at the door, which then gave the US an excuse to do the same thing, and their excuse was Isis.
And since it worked for the US, Turkey tried the same tactic too, and guess what, it worked for them too, and now they’re in Syria along with the US, and it’s all thanks to Putin’s failure to act against Isis when he should’ve.
You can see his failures as wins if you want to but I’m sure history will have a totally different view of Putin’s military strategies pertaining to Syria, and now even in Libya where once aging he’s kowtowing to Erdogan. But I do like his social strategy for Syria, in that respect he gets a thumbs up at least, but I don’t mean political strategy, just social.

Cheers.

HiaNd

Listen without reading the ocean of the words you send I do not see why on Earth was Syria only viable option for Qatar and Saudi’s pipeline ??!?
That is why I do not buy your argument that war has happened because of Assad’s refusal to comply with Saudi – Qatar desires !

Sound like totally baseles argument and lousy excuse (even if the sources confirm existence of such excuse!)
That excuse sound to me as total bollocks excuse.
What the fuck is the difference for Saudis and Qatar if LNG terminal is in Israel and not Syria ?!?
On top of all Saudis do NOT HAVE GAS AT ALL ! So for them that is interesting only as transition country only !

Willing Conscience (The Truths

OK.

Joe Doe

Putin throw Syria under the bus. Free Idlib from Turkey gone be veery had, due to Putin blender and pleasing Erdogan. Putin is doing the same mistakes as English PM Chamberlain. Put simply, Putin sold Idlib

Cromwell

I never really believed that and still don’t,but its getting harder by the day.

Jens Holm

None of them ask the locals, and there are millions says buzz off.

And true the line shoukd be a deescaltion line. Its not. The locals are there and not some mapreaders like Hitler and hois globe by Charlie Chaplin.

Jens Holm

I disagree about the sales part.

The russians negosiated hard to compromized Afrin and Damaskus.

It was here Assads would not give YPG a centimeter even they have kept Afrin clean and had many refugees in houses in stead of tents.

The Assad demand was YPG should clothe their administration and the old one shpuld be opened right away. Another was, that only the ones, which joined SAA under Assad command, should have weapons. Those YPGs are/were first class soldiers fighting very well in their own modern way as well.

So Russia gave up and Assads did the bus thing whatever color it was.

Ypu also forget Russians has their own agenda and the promises there are about it. The promise was to keep Assads safe in Power – not to have or retake all Syria.

So there are 2 levels: 1) To keep Assads safe and 2) Assads can do what they want for retaking the rest, but they wont get tons of supply for that part of it.

It makes sense Russia only need a nuch smaller more homogene Syria for its bases and dont need the Kurdish-Turkmen whatever quagmire, they hardly has now. Let Turks have it. They love it.

OIl and gas is more complicated. I am sure the Russians are sad. They are promised to pay weapons and food to Assads for oil and so far gets nothing.

HiaNd

Fuck your usual US – NATO anti – Putin propaganda !
Russia has invested lot to prevent your terrorist supporting country US and their stooges from destroying Syria completely.
While you “invest” only your big mouth by spreading usual CIA – anti Putin propaganda!
I am sure that Putin will soon be blamed even for the collapse of US economy and implosion of the dollar !

El Mashi

The Neo Ottoman’s have two objectives, energy reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean and territorial expansion in Syria and Iraq. Syria has stalemated Turkey. Turkey faces Greece/Nato in the E. Mediterranean and Egypt/Gulf Tyrannies/Nato in Libya. Nato needs Turkey more than Turkey needs Nato, and Turkey knows it. Plus, Turkey looks for long term relations with China. So, Turkey’s choices are clear, US/Nato/Israel or Russia/Iran/China. The US may not survive Covid 19, and Nato is the US, and Israel cannot survive without extracting from the US. If Erdogan cannot see this, then its willful blindness.

HiaNd

Astana agreement was written in the framework of respecting territorial integrity and sovereignty of Syria By accepting it Turkey has accepted their presence only as temporary one. And it is up to Russia to see to it and protect implementation of the agreement.What you say is usual propaganda smear not based on the facts.
There will be no relations at all let along “long term relations with China” or Russia if Turkey starts to create problems in Syria.

Erdogan can see everything his ambitions permit him to see.

Jens Holm

Idlibe is a very good meatgrinder for all being there:) Its a kind of Trump support. He must be laughing, if he know where it is and whats going on:)

I hope the last man standing is a Ladybird. Men certainly has shown their capabilities and succesrate very well.

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