On December 24th, leaked plans for possible provocations in Donbass by Ukraine were posted on the hacker website Cyber Berkut. After this, the website came under attack after the information was posted, however there is a mirror provided.
According to the Cyber Berkut report, over the last few days the hacker group received information from completely different sources on possible dates for Ukrainian (and thus US and NATO) provocations against the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) and Russia. The report provided an overview of alleged goals and objectives as well as the dates for possible provocations:
The direct leadership and the “curation” of the entire political and military life in Ukraine is exercised by its “Western partners” in the face of the US and the UK. A conglomerate of official staff, security and intelligence officers operate a sort of “operational headquarters.” It has four primary tasks:
- Provision of direct assistance and overseeing the development of strategic plans for the defense of Ukraine from external threats (Russia more than anything);
- Developing plans for land and naval offensive operations by the Ukrainian Navy and Armed Forces. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is allegedly obliged to take these plans into account;
- Controlling the process of re-equipping, re-arming and training of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Creating a “new” Ukrainian army that will counter Russia in the possible upcoming war;
- Ensuring the activities and management of the Information and Psychological Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is to be used in the possible escalation scenario;
The fourth point of the tasks is significant, since it is common for the US in recent years to begin conflicts with “information warfare” operations.
Finally, a list of possible provocations on the territory of Ukraine or along the border with the DPR/LPR and Russia, which could take place between December 24th and January 7th:
- A “breakthrough” of Ukrainian Navy warships through the Kerch Strait into the Sea of Azov. Unlike the November 25th incident, this time it would supposedly be larger and heavily armed so that the warships manage to actually break through. The provocation will be larger, should include usage of weapons in the conflict and must necessarily end up with a significant number of casualties;
- Organization of provocations along the contact line between Ukraine and DPR/LPR with a requirement of civilian casualties, as well as military personnel deaths for Ukraine. According to the information, the most likely scenario is an imitation of artillery shelling from the DPR, during which a large number of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel are struck. For the purpose, he Ukrainian side has already manufactured unguided rocket and artillery shells similar to DPR/LPR ones, which will be used in the provocation;
- Similarly to the second scenario, this one would happen along the contact line and would again involve Ukrainian civilian and military casualties. The DPR/LPR will allegedly employ chemical weapons against the Ukrainian Armed Forces, killing a large number of civilians and military personnel. To implement the plan, the “operational headquarters” and the General Staff of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense collected fragments of shells from beyond the withdrawal lines, which will be treated with chemical warfare agents. After imitating the use of chemical weapons by DPR/LPR it will present evidence of Russian chemical weapon’s use in the form of fragments of shells with traces of toxic substances;
- Finally, the Ukrainian special services will carry out several sabotage operations in the government-controlled territories and blame the special services of the DPR/LPR and Russia. According to the information, sabotage operations can happen on the territory of several enterprises which use chlorine, ammonia and other hazardous substances in their manufacturing process:
- Severodonetsk Azot Association, Severodonetsk;
- Konstantinovsky Chemical Plant, Konstantinovka;
- Avdiivka Coke Plant, Avdiivka;
- Dzerzhinsky phenol plant, urban-type settlement Novgorod;
- Kharkov Chemical reagents plant, Kharkov;
- Azovstal iron and steel works.
It is yet to be seen if any of these plans are true and will be implemented.
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