On May 26th, the Government of National Accord announced that it is stopping operations against LNA for 2 days.
It is unclear if its everywhere, or only in Tripoli.
#Libya ordusu, güneye çekilen Hafter milislerine dönük operasyonları 2 günlüğüne durdurdu.
— Yaser Emre (@yasiremres) May 26, 2020
This, more than likely, suggests that there are some behind-the-scenes diplomatic developments.
Entirely in the area of speculation, this could relate to the reports that “Russians are withdrawing from Libya,” even though there’s no evidence of them being there to begin with.
More likely, it suggests that Egypt is dissatisfied with the situation in Libya, with Islamists having a chance to expand throughout the country.
Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar is currently very obviously on the back foot, despite reports of successful airstrikes, which suggests that Cairo may move in and provide some more tangible support, in the form of a direct intervention, such as carrying out airstrikes.
Turkey, which supports the GNA has little interest in confronting Egypt, since it is clearly the most military-capable Arab state and a pillar of stability in two regions – both the Middle East and Northern Africa.
Egypt, together with Russia and the UAE have a similar interest and long-term aspirations for Libya. Namely – stabilization of the situation in the region with the strengthening of sovereign power under a single Libyan government.
Turkey, on the other hand, is also nterested in long-term stabilization in Libya, but under
control of “moderate” Islamists from the GNA. In the absence of its own energy resources, the escalating international relations and the global crisis, Ankara’s neo-Ottomanism views Libya as its oil province.
How effective that would be is questionable, since, until recently, its success against the LNA was limited, but with Haftar on the back foot, the tides may turn rapidly given the proper support coming from the Field Marshal’s allies.
Tarhuna is currently not being attacked, despite al-Watiya being captured and rapid progress being made eastward.
Bani Walid is not being attacked, and it is receiving equipment and purportedly more forces.
— Oded Berkowitz (@Oded121351) May 26, 2020
Of course, these, according to MSM relate to the “Wagner PMC” with transport and cargo planes arriving and departing frequently, but with unclear contents.
هبطت قبل قليل طائرتي شحن بمطار بني وليد ، ودخول رتل جميعه من المرتزقة الروس للمطار .
— FARAJ SHITAW (@farajshitaw1) May 26, 2020
Four cargo planes, likely Su-24, arrived near Benghazi, they are quite large and it is unclear what they’ve brought forward to support the LNA.
— Samir (@obretix) May 25, 2020
The LNA is shelling the area in Gharyan, and downing Turkish UAVs meanwhile.
The GNA, for the last 3 days, has undertaken very little, if anything, after capturing Gharyan and the surrounding area. It could be recuperating its forces, with Turkish C-130 cargo planes arriving in Misrata, or as mentioned earlier waiting on diplomatic developments.
MORE ON THE TOPIC:
- Haftar’s Forces Carry Out Wide Airstrike Operation In Response To GNA’s Advance
- Turkey Dives Into Libyan Conflict