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JUNE 2023

Foreign Policy Diary – Turkey’s Military Intervention to Syria

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During the video production, Southfront: Analysis & Intelligence also recieved information that at least one Saudi motorized brigade equipped with about 90 armoured vehicles were moved to Iraqi border.  This force could become a core of a joint force which could be used by the Saudi-led coalition to support Turkish military intervention to Syria.

The military balance in Northern Syria is shifting rapidly. The Syrian Army and local militias supported by the Russian Air Force have cut terrorists from major supply lines from Turkey and almost encircled the militant forces in the Aleppo city. This has become possible due to the actions of the Russian Aerospace Defense Forces which have been destroying the terrorists’ sources of funding since 2015. Thus, we could observe a breakdown on the battlefield which leads to a full collapse of the terrorists forces in Syria step by step. This also dished schemes of the foreign players interested in overthrowing of the Assad government.

In the contemporary situation the Erdogan’s regime acts as a main sponsor and creator of a terrorist threat in the Middle East. Turkey is a crucial part of terrorist logistics network which allows terrorist groups in Syria to receive arms supplies and reinforcements. The Turkish elites have a strong business ties predominantly oil smuggling with ISIS and other terrorists in Syria. The Erdogan’s imperial ambitions in the Middle East also plays an important role in the conflict. Erdogan believes that a breakdown of Syria will allow him to set a protectorate or even occupy the northern part of the Arab country.

The successes of anti-terrorist forces in Syria have destroyed a hope to realize these plans easily. Considering this, the Erdogan’s regime launched preparations for a direct intervention to the country without any legal mandate. A high-level of concentration of the Turkish military are already observed in the Syrian-Turkish border by civil and military sources. Furthermore, there are irresistible videos proofs that Turkey has been conducting a series of cross-border artillery shelling violating the Syrian sovereignty.

Experts suggest Turkey is ready to deploy some 18,000 troops with substantial artillery and air support to occupy a 30-kilometer deep territory across the border running from the city of Jarabulus westward to the city of Azaz. The operation would cover an area under ISIS control, and it would provide a direct military assistance to terrorists and facilitate establishing of a buffer zone for the vestiges of their forces in Northern Syria. It would drastically escalate the tensions with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). However, the Turkish military is fully capable of completing the first move aimed to push the SAA and the SDF from the aforementioned area and occupy a significant part of Northern Syria.

This step will likely face a hard answer of the Russian military grouping located in the country. The Russian land and navy air-defense systems and fighter jets are fully capable to neutralize the Turkish air force which will allow the Syrian government to counter-attack the Turkish intervention forces. Thus, the anti-terrorist forces will get a chance to exercise a counter-attack which will be likely supported by the Russian Aerospace Defense Forces.

This situation leads to 2 main scenarios:

  1. If the SAA with support by militia forces, Iran, and Russia isn’t able to push the Turkish military from Syria, the Erdogan’s regime will strengthen presence at the occupied territories and use gained time to receive at least air and intelligence support by NATO. In this case, the conflict could easily lead to a global war.
  2. If the SAA supported by local militias, Iran, and Russia knock out the Turkish intervention forces from Syria, NATO will face the fact that Syria is de-facto liberated and the terrorists are cut from their main supplier. It could prevent a global escalation. However, the NATO countries would strengthen their presence in Iraq and use it as a foothold to launch further destructive actions against Syria. The situation will also become especially acute in Ukraine and in the Central Asia because a destabilization in these regions could be easily used against the Syria’s main allies: Russia and Iran.

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First Lastname

1. Russia is prepping for the use of its military along its Southwestern border. 2. NATO/Saudis/Turkey is prepping for an/another invasion of Syria. 3. If Russia is planning to engage the Turkeys and push them out of Syria, they know NATO will escalate the Ukraine situation. 4. If Russia is planning to allow the Turkeys to do as they wish in Syria, NATO may not escalate the Ukraine situation, therefore Russia would not increase its readiness along its Southwestern border. 5. Therefore, Russia is planning to expel the coming invasion of Syria.

I think even if Russia is successful in its repulsion of the Turkeys, Ukraine will be escalated, as a kind of chess move against Russia, so that no net gain is made by Russia in its effort for global peace.

I don’t see any move that Russia can make that doesn’t lead to more war. NATO wants a war, and war it will be.

But of course, it must be started on NATO’s terms, so that they look like a good guy, and Russia looks like a bully (or else it would have been started months ago). However, anybody who has an IQ over ten will know that NATO has started this war and Russia is acting in the interests of world peace.


This is all true – however, > The Turkish armed forces are equipped with 1980’s technology, only good for fighting civilians or people with bows and arrows. > NATO will not fight Russia directly, it would probably lose. > Russians are the worlds best chess players – they will know what the next move is.

First Lastname

I agree with your last two points (and I can’t disagree fully with your first), but the Leopard 2’s that the Turkeys use can hang with a T-90. The T-90 is a better tank, and a decade newer, like you said, but the Leopard 2 is a capable MBT. Now a T-90 vs an M-60 Patton, different story. The only positive that might come out of this would be Putin deploying a dozen T-14 Armatas. That’s the best MBT in the world. I’m sure it’s a beast in action.

But the Turkeys are also lacking in terms of artillery. It’s old and small. They have a lot of troops and a 1960s navy. They are certainly outclassed, but Erdogan has been trying to justify a full scale invasion of Syria since at least 2013, and he is showing no signs of relenting.

It may be that the Turkeys are taking brinkmanship to a new level, not expecting Russia to engage them.

The only disadvantage Russia would have in pushing the Turkeys out of Syria would be the inevitable escalation in Ukraine and the bad press in the Western media (which could be used to justify a NATO war with Russia).

Russia has a smaller military than the US/NATO. However, Russia also has the willpower to use overwhelming force, unlike NATO has displayed recently. Many top level Russians have pointed to the outcome of a nuclear war against NATO if NATO chose to attack Russia, all the way up to Medvedev himself.

That being said, I also agree that NATO would lose long term in a war against Russia. I mean, America doesn’t even build most of its own military equipment. It’s mostly made in China, for God’s sake!


Am I right stating that syria and hezbolla support one another?

Tomko Kubianca

Hezbollah is in Lebanon mainly to fight Israel and convert the country into a Shiite theocracy. They have been supported by Iran but Syria while not supporting them directly hasn’t stood in the way of Iranian support. Previously Lebanon was a predominantly Christian country and had very little problems with her neighbors Syria and Israel. The Iranian creation and support of Hezbollah has turned a once beautiful and peaceful country into a shiite hole.

Having said that…Hezbollah is coming to the aid of Syria because the terrorist groups (Al Qaeda, Al Nusra, ISIS) are all Sunni supported by the US, Saudi, Qatar, and Turkey…all Hezbollah’s (and Iran’s) arch enemies. Hezbollah realizes that they would be toast if Syria becomes a Sunni theocracy controlled by Saudi Arabia so it’s in their best interest to support Assad even though Syria is a predominantly secular country (which they also hate).

Iran while currently friends with Syria has her own long range plan to create a Shiite caliphate all they way from Iran to the Mediterranean to surround Saudi Arabia and wipe it out making Mekka and Medina Shiite. Obviously Saudi want the same region to be a Sunni caliphate. We’ll just have to sit back and see who wins.


Israeli regime doesn´t want to see Erdogan´s islamic puppet defeated, they have even been slightly supportive of other islamic groups.

Only US allie in the middle-east? Ha!


You are assuming Syria would be the target.

Erdogan might prepare to attack Syria by surprise but who knows?

There might be a jihad attack on Germany soon and Erdogan is concerned that the scale of it might result in Turkey facing severe repercussions if he doesn´t make efforts to distance his regime and himself from their creation.


I rather suspect the Turkish regime is going to pull another trick and a big one at that.

It is possible that the next target isn´t even Syria.

Any Mouse

Iraqi government better ship out great satan, little satan and their mother before they escalate things.


An incursion into syria by turkey is an act of war and obviously illegal. I think NATO will get more than it bargained for if they keep on prodding the Russians.

Tomko Kubianca

NATO article 5 states that an attack against one Ally is considered as an attack against all Allies. If Turkey is the aggressor (which they have been thus far) and attacks Syria, NATO has no obligation to come to Turkey’s defense and it might even be grounds to kick Turkey out of NATO. They shouldn’t be a member in the first place but that’s another story.

Turkey (or US, Saudi, Qatar) may try to produce a false flag incident to make it look like Turkey is invading under the pretense of self-defense. In that case NATO may be involved provided they’re truly deceived. If that happens things will get nasty and I’ll be moving to a deserted island in the Pacific with a lawn chair and popcorn to watch the fireworks.


Military convoys are streaming through Crimea 100km long heading towards black sea ports…Look for Israeli backed saudis to stage a fake mini nuke false flag to escalate the situation…Russia has been training a large reserve force of syrians for just this situation…the southern district snap exercises were a direct show of force to Turks that russia knows and is prepared….Russian Black hole subs with 200 nukes are off Turkeys coast….Putin is former KGB…he has whipped zionists azz over and over he will do it again…game set and match…….Donbass welcomes a kiev backed lice infested unpaid army attack…they have whipped them numerous times b4……I luv the smell of cluster bombs from Grads in the morning…it smells like……….victory! putin was heard whispering.


if Nato joins in, they are as stupid as we mortals think they are. Nato ineffect would be starting world war 3, and for no good reason obumma will not be pleased thats for sure. he wants to go out as a hero no chance of that anyway he is a shit pigcoward, But Nato need to think twice and not do what he wants or the other stupid nations like france and maybe UK they must refuse to join in let the arabs sort it out themselves Russia will then have to make a decision as to get out or fight.


This conflict is in essence between Arabia Saudi and Iran, two consolidated democracies!

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