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JUNE 2021

First Joust

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First Joust

Written by Israel Shamir; Originally appeared at The Unz Review

With slight disappointment the public regarded the field. Just a minute ago, two knights were converging in fearsome joust, their spears pointing forth, plumage blowing, horses galloping, ladies out waving their handkerchiefs to their champions, – and now we see they have passed each other, both firmly in the saddle, plumage unruffled, spears unbloodied, horses trotting away joyfully.

“Cowards!” – the boys shouted, while the ladies are happy to see their knights riding off the field unharmed. We all know this was just the first joust, where prudence often inhibits the testosterone flush. Soon, the knights will ride again.

This is a brief summary of the Syrian strike. An external force had pushed the leaders of Russia and the US into confrontation; Putin and Trump were equally unwilling to fight, but they couldn’t avoid the charge. The best they could do, they did: they avoided each other.

This was the somewhat unexpected conclusion of the carefully planned encounter. It plainly did not make sense to fire up fear and loathing of Russians to its unprecedented heights for such a finale. A mountain gave birth to a mouse, as Horace said. Presumably, the mountain will make another effort.

The last thing I want is to cheer and encourage the next encounter. The two presidents already have displayed vigour and courage by limiting the damage to a minimum. It is unwise to troll them for failing to defeat their opponent, though this is now being done by hundreds of pundits and by millions of private persons.

On the US side, Trump has been castigated by such brilliant humanitarians as Mr Mohammed (brother to late unlamented Zahran) Alloush, the leader of Jaysh al-Islam, a moderate Jihadi fighter group supported and paid for by that most progressive prince and lady drivers’ best friend, Mohammed bin Salman. The airstrikes were “a farce”, he said. Israel is also upset that President Trump “did the minimum he could”.

If Trump hasn’t been skinned yet by the neocons in Washington, it’s because he judiciously brought into his camp the worst warmongers, John Bolton and Nikki Haley as human shields in the case of a neocon attack: nobody can accuse a man whose security adviser is Bolton and the UN ambassador is Haley of being soft on Putin. Now they can’t voice their indignation. As they say in the army, it’s better to have them inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in.

Well, some guys are anyway unhappy. Vil Mirzayanov, the Russian expert, who had spied over the development of the Novichok chemical weapon and immigrated to the US,, wrote in his blog to his erstwhile CIA masters: “[by this strike], Trump confirmed that he is a Putin’s agent! Poor Nikki [Haley] should slam the door and leave, as an honest person can’t serve under Kremlin’s agent”.

Real Kremlin’s agents, trolls and scribes, or alternatively, Western dissidents presented the strike as a “huge victory for Putin”. This is the common ground of Putin and anti-Putin trolls: whatever the Kremlin ruler does, has to be presented as his great victory. Afterwards, they part their ways, and Putin’s agents bless the Lord for Putin, while anti-Putin trolls call to fight him harder and accuse everybody softer than Genghis Khan of collaboration with the tyrant.

It is silly to present the strike as Putin’s achievement. Kremlin tried to avoid the strike altogether, spoke darkly of a harsh response, of “carriers” being shot at, of Satan 2.0 and nuclear winter, but the talk failed to stop the strike. No British or American planes were downed, or even shot at. The Russians didn’t use their S-300 or S-400 SAM systems, claiming the US missiles didn’t approach Russian bases. This is a dubious argument: Putin tried to stop at attack on Damascus; and Damascus is not a Russian base. Let us face it: Putin did not stop the strike and he didn’t make the offender pay a price for this breach of the Law of Nations.

General (Ret) Leonid Ivashov, an important Russian military observer, said the strike had annihilated Russian deterrence, exposed Putin’s bluff of his powerful new weapons and, worst of all, proved him indecisive and unable to respond to an attack. We walked away with our tail between our hind legs, as punished dogs, he continued. Russia’s achievements in Syria have been erased by this shameful inaction.

What is worse, Trump’s strike destroyed what was left of the international law structure established by Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin. These three giants created the UN and its Security Council in order to avoid such eventualities by forbidding aggression, and the strike has been definitely an act of aggression against a sovereign state despite an objection of a permanent SC member, namely Russia. Now the gates of hell are open, international law has been demolished, and this happened because Putin agreed to accommodate Trump’s strike, said Ivashov.

Though official Russian media speaks of a great Russian victory, as no Russian or Syrian soldiers were killed, many Russians subscribe to the bleak view of Ivashov. The main question is whether this Russian fight aversion will encourage the Americans to carry out a future strike, or whether Trump will rein in his adversaries.

It is hard to accept the official Russian version saying the Syrian SAM systems intercepted 70% of the incoming missiles, as the excellent journalist Pepe Escobar did. This would be too good a result even for the best, latest, and most update systems. The unimpressive outcome of the attack can be explained easier by Trump’s decision to minimise the damage, as indeed the Israeli military says.

The Russian military experts here in Moscow told me that out of a hundred missiles fired by the US and their allies, only one or two were modern cruise missiles (“nice and smart”)and they destroyed the research institute in Barzeh. (It was not a “chemical weapons centre”, just a chemical research institute; it’s destruction was a copy-paste of Bill Clinton’s bombing of the pharmaceutical factory in Sudan over a similar pretext.)

All other missiles were old and at the end of their service; they had to be utilised somehow, and so they were. A few of them might have been downed by Syrian anti-aircraft fire, others fell without inflicting much damage. Syrian air defence is not able to blow modern cruise missiles out of sky; Syrian appeals to supply them with modern SAM systems have been refused at the request of Israel. (Netanyahu came to Moscow saying that S-300 in Syrian hands will turn all Israel into a no-fly zone; Putin agreed with him, and the Syrians were denied modern SAMs.) Now, hopefully these modern systems will find its way to Syrian army.

The Russian experts who were in contact with the US military told me that the US military used this occasion for retraining and refreshing reserve pilots; what they call “a milk run”. This combination of old missiles and less experienced pilots helped to lower the efficiency of the strike. And both sides, the Russians and the Americans, admitted that the deconfliction line was operative all the time, to avoid eventualities.

I’d consider that a good conclusion of the fictional chemical weapons story. The story has fallen to pieces altogether, anyway. The poisoning of Skripal ended with the old spy in good health; with Boris Johnson being caught lying; with [the chemical weapons control body] OPCW refusing to connect Skripal’s poison to Moscow; and with Brits keeping Miss Skripal incommunicado under duress, away from her fiancé and the rest of her family, a clear sign of a collapsing story. Hopefully, Jeremy Corbyn will be able to use May’s debacle for his political advantage.

The Syrian part of this story collapsed as well, after Robert Fisk, one of the very best British Middle East observers (next to David Hirst) visited Douma and delivered a report straight from the donkey’s mouth, i.e. as told by a doctor of the clinic videoed by the White Helmets. He said:

“There was a lot of shelling [by government forces] and aircraft were always over Douma at night – but on this night, there was wind and huge dust clouds began to come into the basements and cellars where people lived. People began to arrive here [to the clinic] suffering from hypoxia, oxygen loss. Then someone at the door, a “White Helmet”, shouted “Gas!”, and a panic began. People started throwing water over each other. Yes, the video was filmed here, it is genuine, but what you see are people suffering from hypoxia – not gas poisoning.”

The Russians actually located some people who are seen in the video, and they say it was staged. (Western media says they were threatened into saying what they said). I have more trust in Fisk’s report, than in the Russian one, but that may be my own prejudice. Anyway, both versions are not mutually exclusive, they do not contradict each other, but they undermine the fake story that provided the cue for the strike.

An interesting bit of data, proving that preparations for the strike were carried out before the alleged attack, has been published by the Cyprus banking community blog. They say the British air base of Akrotiri on Cyprus had its perimeter urgently strengthened (by the British company Agility) on April 5, that is before the alleged Douma gas attack. The second British air base, Dhekelia, carried out similar works on April 12, a week later, before the decision to strike had been adopted by the British government. The Dhekelia works were done with great speed and urgency, and road-constructing equipment had to be taken from the nearby villages of Xylotympou and Ormideia. The payment to the local workers had been routed via HSBC bank in Hong Kong, they say. And indeed these bases (forcibly retained by Britain) were used for the strike on Syria.

The OPCW could dispel the mist around both cases, that of Skripal and that of Douma, but do not hold your breath. It appears that OPCW is as integrated into the machinery of the Masters of Discourse as any other international body. Refusal of OPCW to allow Russia to take part in Skripal investigation, despite the clear requirement of its own charter, makes its conclusion doubtful, at best. While inability of OPCW inspectors to enter Douma despite all efforts of Damascus and Russians to facilitate their entry tells us they are not eager to investigate; like they weren’t eager to enter Khan Sheykhun last year.

Meanwhile, the Western media and the Jihadi groups on the ground are busy to create a new web of lies instead of the old one. Now they say the Fisk report is suspicious because he was allowed in by the Russians. We can learn of their attitudes from the following twit

“Salih @Salih90119797 Apr 17 More

Replying to @Elizrael

We salute Israel in spite their crimes in Palestine we hope they’ll continue their strikes every part of Syria; Iran regime should comedown”

These “Islamic rebels” are actually Israel’s stooges rather than warriors of the Prophet.

Anyway, people who manufactured these beautiful and complicated simulacra, are still around, and doubtless they will prepare a new one, if it will be necessary.

In my view, the two presidents have made heroic efforts at saving their countries and mankind from destruction; both risked their good names, their positions, their reputatiosn to go that far. Trump minimized the bombing, Putin minimized the response.

Both have made some mistakes. Mr Putin made his big mistake when he gave Israel carte blanche to bomb Syria whenever she feels like it. Israeli strikes (and there were more than a hundred of them last year) created the air of permissiveness and that allowed Trump to follow in Israel’s footsteps. If Israel bombs Syria, and Russians do not react, why can’t Trump? It appears unfair for the US to be bested by its satellite. If you permit Tom to grab your girlfriend’s pussy without a single objection, you must be expect that Dick and Harry will try to repeat this feat. Israel created the precedent, the US used it.

I asked Senator Alexey Pushkov, the head of the foreign relations committee, whether he doesn’t think it was a mistake, in hindsight. He justified the policy saying that Russia came to Syria in order to fight jihadi groups, ISIS, Al Qaeda et al, not Israel. Russia is friendly to Israel, Iran and Turkey, and it does not want to sort out local disagreements. Pushkov stressed that Russia always censured Israeli raids on Syria, though it didn’t act against them. As a matter of fact, if Russia criticized Israel, it was done very, very quietly. The only time this condemnation was made public, happened just now, when the Israeli strike occurred in a very tense moment.

Mr Trump made a mistake when he fired the missiles instead of firing Mueller. But anyway, thank you, Mr Trump, for limiting the damage. Try to complete the withdrawal from Syria, while at it.

However, the big problem is that the forces promoting war are still active. It feels that there is a big wave carrying the Russian and American boats into a collision and the rocks. This time, the leaders succeeded managed to avoid the confrontation. But the wave is still there, and the next time we may be less lucky.

We have entered a new phase of human conscience, when millions of social network users express their opinion. These opinions are often dangerous and our enemies know how to manipulate. Unless there is a serious effort to lower destructive feelings, mankind will perish, and we would have nobody to blame but ourselves.

It is necessary to counteract the US-Russian confrontation with a positive action. The bloodshed in Gaza provides a good cause for such action. A joint effort by Russia and the US to relieve the Gaza siege may change the agenda of the world. It will also take the mind of the warmongers off Syria and off Moscow.

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as

Trump intentionally missed the mark he’s ordered ? Well fuck no they just failed. Trump is in no control of whatever train he’s riding on.

John

This writers’ opinion is as easily influenced as the next. He sounds as though he came out of a D.C. think tank. I did not like the article. Thumbs down on him.

paul ( original )

I also was not very impressed, though I thought it okay. I think there
are a lot of people who want to show off and display how clever they
are by writing tracks containing obscure explanations. So when
reading claims that the Americans used old missiles and inexperienced
pilots so as to make the strike ineffective I think I am being
treated to someone’s rather poor attempt to impress with the depth
of their knowledge. The reality being that they know little more than
anyone else.

as

I only need to ask two things to these that claim it’s within the plan.
1. Did you agree that US coalition failed intentionally ?
2. Did you agree that US coalition failed ? —> they’ll argue that intentional failure is not a real failure but sure make my day.

I already say from the beginning that you can’t make this up. Now we have 76 missiles concentrated against one sites as their best explanation.

John

Yes. he was not flying a jet or one of AO types loading the bombs on the planes. It struck me the same way. A good evening to you Paul.

paul ( original )

I think in life a person can make a lot of progress by asking the
question ‘does it make sense’ ? So does it make sense that the
Americans would carry round an inventory of dud missiles just in case
they wanted to wage a half hearted war? Also does it make sense that
you would use your least able pilots on a combat mission and increase
the risk loosing your aircraft to accident or fire?

John

The US has a very big shortage of pilots. It is part of the recruiting problem they are experiencing.

Ace

The use of American biplanes is, however, a clear indication of a certain lack of seriousness.

NWOD

You are wrong about Israel. He is a Russian Jew who is very critical of Israel and very patriotic of Russia, but he is also a Communist.

Overall he writes pretty well, but I always find myself having serious disagreements with him. On the other hand, he does not make me very angry like most Western journalists (liars, propagandists, evil scum :)) do.

John

Thank you very much for the response NWOD. I enjoyed it.

The quality of his writing is good. He paints bright colors in the mind. The problems cropped up with areas within the article were in the nature of freedom of expression and the thinking that the professionals know best ( they are the reason we have arrived here in the first place ). I didn’t want to rip him a new one and thankfully chose to spend that part of the day looking at my own affairs in the mirror, so I kept my reply succinct. Again, thank you and I wish you well NWOD.

Olayinka Abdulgafar

John please don’t get me wrong, I understand your position but appreciate pragmatic analysis especially when it’s coming from the other camp as it is now a rare commodity. If we let go our prejudice I think there are lots to learn from few once-a-while good analyst still on the other side. One cannot denied that the strike was all bark but no bite and we must realise that these leaders are privy to some informations that are not in the public domain which guide and greatly influence their decisions, Trump is a fake no doubt but the fact cannot be deny that he would have avoided having any trouble with Russia if he can help it alas, Washington democracy is what it is.
As for Putin he’s no knight in a shining amour, he’s just a good leader and as a good leader he would simply do whatever he can to avoid war between Russia and any nation. More so I strongly believe that Trump’s antagonism against Iran is a product of America’s internal politics and his own background as a salesman, this bellicose rhetoric toward Iran help him in milking the persian gulf shiekdoms, secure the evangelic constituent votes which is pro Israel, befriend the pro Israel lobbies and stave off attacks from the neocons and Democrats who would do anything to discredit him and torpedo is administratio, though I’ve got no love lost for him because it’s dog eating dog, I’m just trying to give reasons why we cannottotally disagree with Shamir’s surmise.

John

Hello Olayinka. What you have posted, makes sense to me. I try to keep in touch with inputs on the events are actually directly opposed to what I deem sane/correct or whatever. A good day to you. :)

Spit

This is Pure Propaganda.
Look at the Name of the Author, its a Shlomo.

Nod

demagogue

” A joint effort by Russia and the US to relieve the Gaza siege may change the agenda of the world. It will also take the mind of the warmongers off Syria and off Moscow.”

conclusion is a lie. USA ARE the warmongers.Why would the USA make itself forget about Syria and Russia and teh imperialism they seek ? For the Palestinians that have no value other than caretakers of Israels stolen land.

John

Hello Nod. Yes, ideas like this one in the article, put a very bad taste in my mind, so to speak. The US will only use any opening to game Russia, or anybody else for that matter. I know the mindset of my own. It is foolishness to go along, hand and hand, with the West at this point.

Spit

Look at the Name “Israel Shamir;”
This is some kind of an officer or somebody important. “Amir”

Mattias Dahlström

The writer misses that SAAAD has ~40 Pantsir, a modern weapon well suited for shooting down cruise missiles.

NWOD

Definitely this was one very weak part of the article.

alejoeisabel

Shamir Israel is a brilliant thinker, and more importantly an honest and truthful intellectual. His perspective is fresh and insightful with some humor.

Hole

The Ami has three satellite Pictures with max. nine impacts to Show as proof of their “success”. The Generals allowed no questions. Remember the Iraq wars, someone had to stop them from talking about all the Targets they hit with their wonderful weapons.
All this talk about “only two new missiles used” is just an excuse for the total failure of the strike, like this “Young pilots” and other BS. Why are the Ami ships still armed with Tomahawk Missiles if they are so old?

RichardD

These Jews always come up with twisted arguments to support their “rational”.

The facts are that Trump was the aggressor and Putin was the defender in the Syria missile attack. Putin won, Trump lost. Russia is winning the war, the US is losing it. Any fool can see it. As I pointed out over a month ago, the Syrian government coalition’s assets are increasing compared to the dwindling regime change assets. Which is why the clearing and containment operations are going so well.

“Russian servicemen have built a new bridge on the Euphrates river in Syria’s Deir Ez-Zor governorate, Defense Ministry Automotive Service Chief Vladimir Buravtsev told reporters.

The bridge is 150 meters long and 6.5 meters wide, including a 4.2-meter-wide road and a 2.3-meter pedestrian zone. Its traffic capacity is 3,000 vehicles a day.”

– Russian servicemen build new bridge in Syria’s Deir Ez-Zor governorate –

http://tass.com/world/998948

RichardD

comment image

RichardD
Ace

Mr. Shamir is correct that this attack on Syria was theater but he is sloppy when he says that the attack “exposed Putin’s bluff of his powerful new weapons.” Since one of the PNWs mentioned by Mr. Putin was a horrific missile warhead there is no way that the use thereof by Russia was part of any bluff.

Nor did the failure to use any other weapons expose any other bluff. Putin was clear that there would be a price to pay if Russian forces were harmed and this did not happen during the American attack. So, he did not fail to respond to harm that was caused to Russian forces. He didn’t respond because no harm was caused.

Good for Shamir for pointing out the urgent work done on British bases in Cyprus before the supposed Douma attack took place. That is suggestive of British foreknowledge of the clearly bogus attack but only suggestive. The contrary can be assumed from the fact that the work pertained to strengthening the perimeter of the bases and no possible response by Syria or Russia would have involved a ground attack on those bases unless, of course, the Israeli view of Iranian magical powers, perhaps including teleportation, is correct.

Douglas Houck

I agree with the author’s statement that it is unlikely that the Syrians shot down 71 missiles.

“It is hard to accept the official Russian version saying the Syrian SAM systems intercepted 70% of the incoming missiles, as the excellent journalist Pepe Escobar did. This would be too good a result even for the best, latest, and most update systems.”

Not even Southfront could find a decent explaination as it’s experts said:

“Some experts contacted by SouthFront said that even theoretically the SADF had not been capable to shoot down more than 15-20% of the launched missiles using its S-125, S-200, Buk, Kvadrat and Osa systems only. The SADF just does not have enough means and measures to intercept such a number of missiles simultaneously in one striking wave.”

It opined the Russians must have used their latest electronic warefare, (EW) and the Russian supporters yelled victory. See:
https://southfront.org/decisive-failure-of-us-forces/

But what if it was the American’s latest electronic warfare that “spoofed” Syria’s radar into thinking it was shooting down a bunch of phantom missiles, and that nowhere near 71 actual missiles were intercepted nor were 76 missiles shot at the Barzah Research and Development Center?

Spoofing or Deception Jamming “is the act of crafting specific radar returns intended to fool an enemy radar. The idea is not to overpower the radar with a noise signal, but to lure the radar into believing a crafted false return signal is real. Deception jamming is much more widely used in modern warfare. It is also much more classified, and specific techniques are not published. Deception jamming techniques can be broad, analyzing any incoming signal and crafting a false return, or they can be highly specialized techniques intended to defeat a specific kind of enemy radar. All that being said, there are a few published deception jamming techniques.” (from Quora).

Deception Jamming would explain why the following night Syria first reported shooting down at least nine missiles fired at the T4 airfield and then the following day said it was all a false alarm even though missiles were fired. See:
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/update-syrian-state-media-reports-9-israeli-missiles-intercepted/
https://sana.sy/en/?p=134653

We know the US Navy has been spending money over the last couple of years acquiring radar-spoofing electronic warfare (EW) technology from Mercury Systems Inc. that can fool enemy radar systems with false and deceptively moving targets. See:
http://www.militaryaerospace.com/articles/2017/06/radar-spoofing-electronic-warfare-ew.html

An interesting explaination to the too biggest questions about the strike.

One thing is for sure, 76 missiles did not hit the Barzah Research and Development Center and nobody has explained how Syria could have intercepted 71 missiles while Russia says they simply watched.

Nod

Americans will NOT take Syria without boots on the ground. And with this, they have failed. The missiles mean nothing, and only create more disrespect for the globalist regime.

I imagine Putin just laughed, and said “who cares” , when the American military created a profit windfall for the military industrial complex, thAT WHICH IS owned by the globalists.

Because that is all that happened. Dumb stupid American’S eat more debt. And Trump gets to appease his globalist masters, showing he did not drop the ball so carefully handed to him by Barak Boom Boom Obama.

Spit

Israel Shamir;
This ^ is no ordinary person.
Putin would be a fool to make any deals with America, they have a Very long track record of lying and flipping on just about every deal.
“It is necessary to counteract the US-Russian confrontation with a positive action”
The Russians have every single advantage over Israel and America, they Must Push against Golan Hights and Force the Israeli’s to their Knee’s, This is 100% Guaranteed within 30 years, Why Would Russia be so Stupid to walk away from such a Massive Victory?
The British are out, the Saudi’s are almost out.
the Israeli’s will fall in 20-30 years if they Chose to fight for Golan Hights.

Besides, the Israelis tried to exterminate Whites and tried to flood Russia with Angry Muslims… It is the Right thing to do to the Jews exactly What they tried to do to Whites and What they are doing to Muslims, It is morally the Right thing to do, to them what they have done to us all.

The Russians have almost every single advantage.
Besides, if Russia Sides with Israel and America, White Nationalists in USA will no longer have Simpothy for Russia, the Middle East, which the Russians are set to sell Shitloads of weapons to would become Enemy’s.

Russia has Everything to lose by Taking Israel’s side and everything to gain, In perticular Muslim and White Nationalists by doing to them What they did to us.

P,S,
If Putin Vitits USA, he will be assasinated, this is all but Guaranteed.
P.S.S.
Shlomo, the Pyramids where built not by dragging rocks up a hill, but those rocks where Made on the spot, like Bricks, You got kicked kicked out of Egypt for Playing the same tricks that have gotten You kicked out out of everywhere else.
Enjoy Purim!

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