0 $
2,500 $
5,000 $
2,040 $
8 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE END OF OCTOBER

Fate Of Armenian-Azerbaijani War Is Being Decided In Battle Of Shusha

Support SouthFront

DEAR FRIENDS. IF YOU LIKE THIS TYPE OF CONTENT, SUPPORT SOUTHFRONT WORK:

PayPal: southfront@list.ru, http://southfront.org/donate/ or via: https://www.patreon.com/southfront, BTC: 3Gbs4rjcVUtQd8p3CiFUCxPLZwRqurezRZ, BCH ABC: qpf2cphc5dkuclkqur7lhj2yuqq9pk3hmukle77vhq, ETH: 0x9f4cda013e354b8fc285bf4b9a60460cee7f7ea9

Azerbaijani troops and Turkish-backed Syrian militants continue storming the town of Shusha, located just south of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic capital, Stepanakert. During the past 24 hours, infantry of the Turkish-Azerbaijani bloc under cover of intense artillery and drone strikes captured several heights southeast of Shusha and were able to keep fire control over the road linking the town with the Lachin corridor area. At the same time, Armenian forces repelled several Azerbaijani attacks on the town itself inflicting, at least according to Yerevan, heavy casualties to pro-Baku forces. This goes contrary to claims of Azerbaijani sources that in their reports have almost captured the town already.

In fact, Shusha is not even encircled and the Armenians still have an option to send supplies and reinforcements to it from the north and northwest. Most likely, the Azerbaijani-Turkish bloc wants to repeat the Hadrut scenario by taking control of the main heights surrounding Shusha and block the main nearby roads with drone and artillery fire. In the case of Hadrut, this forced the Armenians to withdraw their forces from the town. Nonetheless, Shusha is different story. This is the iconic town for the Armenian patriotic narrative and the gates to Stepanakert. So, Yerevan will likely try to defend it as long as it is possible.

It could be said that the fate of the entire conflict is being decided in the battle of Susha. If Armenian forces are able to contain the Azerbaijani advance, they will get a chance to keep the Turkish-Azerbaijani bloc in the areas that it has captured in the south. If Shusha falls into Turkish hands, the fate of the central part of Nagorno-Karabakh will be predetermined.

The situation near Martuni, Martakert and Lachin is much better for Armenians. The trend of clashes there tend to be turned to positional fighting amid the inability of Baku and Azerbaijan to deliver a devastating blow to their opponent in this area. Nonetheless, the control of these areas will not help to the Armenians if Shusha is captured. At the same time, they are not able to redeploy forces from Lachin to the east because this will immediately trigger a new attempt by Azerbaijan to capture the area.

Meanwhile, Turkish and Azerbaijani sources complain that Armenia continues receiving help – military equipment and likely intelligence sharing assistance – in the conflict. The Armenians use this discontent to speculate that soon the airspace over Nagorno-Karabakh will be closed by Russia and the Azerbaijanis will have to run away to Baku. Despite this, the chances of a direct Russian intervention in the current regional situation remains unlikely. However, if Turkey and Azerbaijan continue to extensively exploit Syrian militants in the conflict as cannon folder, the strategy that Ankara already tried in Syria and Libya, the scale of indirect Russian support to the Armenians will definitely grow. If one takes into account the reaction in the public sphere, even current limited Russian support already created difficulties for the Azerbaijani-Turkish advance.

A further increase of involvement of Russia in the conflict will make a direct military victory over the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic a hardly possible scenario for the Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance. This explains its diplomatic positons in the region while Baku and Ankara develop their Karabakh offensive claiming that it is just a forced reaction to the regular ceasefire violations by Armenia. Nonetheless, if red lines are passed, diplomatic rhetoric alone will not help.

Support SouthFront

SouthFront

Subscribe
Notify of
guest
55 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
occupybacon

And how Armenians inted to pay for the Russian help?

Rhodium 10

if Russia intervene is to avoid a new Idlib in NK full of Syrian, Chechen, Uzbek terrorist..which can lead the rise of ISIS in that zone!…Russian will not intervene to save pro western puppet Pashinyan because he is like Serbian presidents which sold Serbian Kosovo in exchange of a EU agreement of memberships!…he doesnt even use a pair of SU 30 and SU-25 which can launch air to ground missile( especially KH-31/59 the same that destroyed a Turkish AD in Al Wattiya-Tripoli) and KH-25/38( SU 25) over AZ targets inside NK provided by Russian Intel Satellite….

occupybacon

Idlib is important for Russia because is too close to their bases. Turkey doesn’t want to transform Azerbaijan in Syria. And those 4 SU-30 are not enough to fight a bunch of F-16, over a small piece of land, when the F-16’s have more space of maneuver. Don’t forget that UN considers N-K Azer so nobody would cry foul over F-16’s in the sky of N-K.

Rhodium 10

SU 30 SM are best fighterjet than Turkish F-16!..when Turkey shot down a SU 24….RUAF sent SU 30 SM close to Turkish border…and NO F-16 was flying even over Turkish airspace near to Syrian border…..SU 30SM on air and S-300 on ground and no Turkish jet will fly over Armenia and NK!

murat

How old are ya 10?

Rhodium 10

10?… 10 days since AZ offered a cease fire because “they were at the gates on NK capital”….but NK forces rejected it because.. Wild Pigs AZ Corpses food matter!!

occupybacon

Even if it was, N-K is surounded by Azerbaijan not Armenia, that means more space for the F-16.besides that Turkey can bring tens of those F-16.

Stev60

So intervene to stop IS in Artsakh – not for Pashinyan. Just downing drones would do a lot to level the field…

Jesus

Did Syria pay for all the Russian military assistance that was given to them since 2015?
Russia does not want Islamic jihadis fighting for the Turks get entrenched in Caucus, and Russia does not care about
Pashinyan’s goals. Russia wants Caucus region to be within its sphere of influence.

Harry Smith

Syria didn’t trained Russian opposition activists to make riots in Russia.

occupybacon

Russia mainly defended their bases and right to stay forever at the Mediteran sea. Armenia is not that important for them.

John Brown

Maybe Armenia should sign a deal with Russia like Syria did, that Russia can keep their base for 100 years, that Armenia will not join NATO or the EU for 100 years and Armenia will not allow any other country to have any kind of military base or any kind of military presenece in Armenia of an ykind in Armenia like Syria did. If not learn to speak Turkish.

occupybacon

That’s foo much, we don’t know if there will still be Russia bay then. With all the natural resources they didn’t manage to grow a competitive economy.

Jesus

Russia has a lot of soviet legacy equipment that is available for a low cost

occupybacon

Training rattletraps for NATO drones.

Jesus

NATO drones would drop like dead flies once they encounter Krasukah EW systems, Pantsir, Tor Buk M3. A formidable short range layered defense.
You saw how useless were the Turkish drones in Idlib against Russian EW countermeasures.

occupybacon

That’s exactly what happened in Idlib and Russia liberated Idlib immediately.

Jihadi Colin

Idlib City is still wholly jihadi territory.

occupybacon

For Russians commenting here, the reality on the ground is wrong, their fantasy is ‘objective reality’. And in their objective reality, they already won Idlib and defeated America.

Degrelle

The Russians are not the ones on the ground trying to liberate Idlib. The Syrian Army is. Contrary to NATO wishful thinking, complete air superiority does not necessarily equal success on the ground. The Syrians have chosen not to advance on the ground yet. That is the only reason why Idlib isn’t liberated yet.

occupybacon

‘Contrary to NATO wishful thinking, complete air superiority does not necessarily equal success on the ground.’ let’s not forget that drones change the term of air superiority as we speak. It happened in Idlib, KSA, N-K….who’s next, Donbas?

John Brown

‘Contrary to NATO wishful thinking, complete air superiority does not necessarily equal success on the ground

Yes 100% right.

The most effective weapons in the Azer arsenal are Pashinyan and the rest of the Soros coup leaders not air power. They got ride of all the best Armenian generals intelligence officers etc. totally sabotaged the army and air force.

If the USSA had the leadership of the Taliban and North
Vietnam betraying their own solders the USSA would have won both of those wars as easily as Azer is winning this one..

You go Pashinyan hero of Azerbaijan? I hear they have cleared the way for Azer to take Yerevan and they will all get medals from Azerbaijan.

occupybacon

Look, Brown Mouth. People do not quote themselves and say “Yes 100% right”. Only if they they eat so much shit, they become Brown.

John Brown

You are such a racist Nazi against brown people.

You go Pashinyan hero of Azerbaijan!!!!

I hear they have cleared the way for Azer to take Yerevan and they will all get medals from Azerbaijan. They are new medals called the hero’s Azerbaijan and destroyers of Armenia.

So Pashinyan and the Soros coup leaders will be kown as the hero’s of Azerbaijan and destroyers of Armenia.

occupybacon

Dam brownie. *flushes toilet*

Stev60

Yerevan? That would be Putin getting the medal.

John Brown

Yes 100% right

Azaz

You seem to desparately want Russia to get involved, but if that doesn’t happen then keep the option of blaming Pashinyan open.

Harry Smith

Russian union of Donbass volunteers said they won’t fight in NK. This means no Wagner for Armenia.

Random Dude

Why take the city if you can block the supply from Armenia. With current equipment Azerbaijan has, taking Shusha is merely symbolic.

Jihadi Colin

Well, one reason is that once the city is taken the routes from it can be used to develop further offensives on Stepanakert from the south west and Lachin from the east. And don’t forget the value of psychology. Germany nearly destroyed the French army in 1916 by threatening Verdun, compelling the French to keep sending troops into the meat grinder of the strategically unimportant but symbolically vital town. If the Germans had kept their offensive going for one more month the French army would have collapsed.

John Brown

Azer has the city of Shusha. Some Armenians may be hiding in some buildings still yes.

From an operational perspective it is in the hand of Azer.

South front come on, so far Azer claims of territory taken have been very accurate and Armenian claims of territory defended and held have been fantasy

To pretend otherwise harms your reputation for accuracy.

Random Dude

I stand corrected. Instead of the corridor, Azerbaijan took the city, thus at the same time controlling the corridor as well. I admit, I was wrong.

Random Dude

News are circulating that Seyran Ohanyan (ex-Minister of Defense of Armenia) who is/was in charge of Shusha defense has been severely wounded.

Smedly

Lieutenant Colonel Rafael Akhadov is one of the best soldiers of Azerbaijan ( Holding back laughter )

comment image

LOL!!!!

comment image

Jihadi Colin

What’s funny about this?

Stev60

It’s funny, why is not worth explaining.

John Brown

South front kind of biased here South Front. Keep it factual or South Front becomes another lying Zio website and goes under.

Armenias Anti Russians Get Their Comeuppance Defeat Analysed in Moscow as Due to Strategic Failure in Yerevan

The purge of Russian-trained commanders hasn’t worked out so well

Armenia has lost the October war with Azerbaijan because of Armenian failures in battlefield intelligence, obsolete defences, and the political miscalculations of Prime Minister Nicol Pashinyan (lead image). His only allies now are the mountains and the weather.

This is the consensus this week of Moscow’s leading military analysts. “During the period of Nikol Pashinyan’s premiership,” Vzglyad reported the Russian General Staff assessment on Tuesday, “three intelligence chiefs were replaced, and one of them had no competence and was a purely political appointee from the West. All this was
accompanied by internal anti-Russian rhetoric, multiplied by national arrogance. Some leaders of Nagorno-Karabakh have said things like ‘we don’t need the Russians at all, we can walk to Baku without you.’”

“Moreover, over the last six months, in the General Staff of Armenia there has been a mass dismissal of officers who were trained in Moscow.”

“It’s probably about time that real purges within the government took place,” Pashinyan had announced in April. According to the Russian assessment, Pashinyan then made the nervous novice’s classic mistake: he reinforced his palace guard against rival Armenians, but underestimated his traditional Azeri enemy and has now
lost control of territory.

Davki

Well, Pashinyan’s gamble failed, where else should he turn to? The Russians are his best bet. The US has too deeply entrenched interests with Azerbaidjan.

John Brown

Russia will never help Armenia as long as the anit Russian Soros coup leaders are in charge. If they cared about Armenia they would resign and let pro Russian Armenians take power then Russia might help.

Stev60

Who wants bandit help? If Russia cared about Armenians it would help Artsakh regardless of who rules in Yerevan, then it would be in a position to ask for something reasonable in return, not making coup demands at the point of Turkish-jihadi guns.

John Brown

Steve 60 Armenia did rule NK until their present defeat.

The most effective weapons in the Azer arsenal are Pashinyan and the rest of the Soros coup leaders not air power. They got ride of all the best Armenian generals intelligence officers etc. totally sabotaged the army and air force.

If the USSA had the leadership of the Taliban and North
Vietnam betraying their own solders the USSA would have won both of those wars as easily as Azer is winning this one..

You go Pashinyan hero of Azerbaijan!!! I hear they have cleared the way for Azer to take Yerevan and they will all get medals from Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan is making a new medal just for them called “hero’s of Azerbaijan and destrouyers of Armenia”.

Stev60

For Putin and Russia with a big kiss from Erdogan.

John Brown

No wrong!

Pashinyan and the rest of the Soros coup leaders are getting big kisses from Erdogan and Soros as they both go bails deep into Pashinyan and the rest from behind

Stev60

Your gay fantasy.

John Brown

He should have resigned so someone who is not a Rusian hater could deal with Russia. Its a no brainer Soros troll.

Noydb

I knew Armenia was losing three weeks ago when they kept publishing how many men and tanks they had killed. The way to win is to trap the enemy advance in a cauldron and then pound them to dust,with artillery. The Nagorno military clearly doesn’t have leaders with the experience to fight and win. Sorry to say it, but without Russia stepping in Nagorno-Karabkh will be ethnically cleansed by Christmas.

Le Gros Roger

They did try that tactic a couple weeks ago (I don’t remember the exact town tho), but they lack the firepower and men to really make it shine. They’ve been on the backfoot since day one, if they make it last until winter then maybe something could be tried out – a shame really

Whacko

Thousands of cars were headed from Stepanakert to the mountains yesterday evening. A tragedy of thousands of families. This is the real picture of the war.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1325333415336566786

Le Gros Roger

Nothing better than getting forced out of your home to fulfill a dictator’s sweet military dreams

John Brown

Yes this lets everyone know the reality is Azer has taken Shusha.

Stev60

Ataturk-Hitler-Stalin – Who remembers the Armenians?

Erdogan-NAZIO-RuSSia – Who remembers Artsakh?

God-Justice-Truth – We do, and we won’t forget those who betrayed, crucified, and genocided
the Armenians, ever, the First Christian Nation.

Algebar

*Turkey’s provision of arms to Azerbaijan and bellicose rhetoric encouraging a military solution are irresponsible*. I like Biden.

55
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x