By Mikaprok for SouthFront
Its autumn, which means that we’ve got the next harvest of apples. If you know, what I mean :-)
Of course, it’s all about Apple products.
I’ve never been a fan of the brand personally, but in the context of numerous conversations offline I suppose to draw my opinion on the current state of the tech giant.
Neither the ardent fans, nor the equally ardent haters, share no doubt that company is no longer a cutting-edge thing.
Last year, for the first time in 14 years, sales critically fell.
It is expected that this year the situation will worsen.
Although Mr. Cook somehow get on the numbers thanks to business inertia and marketing.
A massive advertising, estimated by professionals in the $ 400 million. For the single season.
The company last year announced the construction of a giant headquarters worth $4 billion, but said nothing about its main products.
There are carefully discarded rumors about an electric car, being born in Cupertino. However, no one has the courage to suggest that under current president the giant is able to leave a simple field of i-Devices.
Perhaps this is the general problem.
All innovations were presented throughout “Sturm und Drang” decade: throughout 2003-2010.
They neatly rolled out on seasons and snatched up theatrical presentations.
The last surge was enough until 2012.
Further the machine of innovations began to act up, including because of the huge weight. Both the company and the brand have become too important to be flexible. Their inertia now allows only risk-free turns of 5%.
Would Steve Jobs save the situation if he happened to be alive?
It’s not about Apple.
Previously, as is known, the whole world had his eyes an example of another technological breakthrough – Microsoft.
Until the end of the 90’s, the creation of Mr. Gates rolled like piece of cake. Investors were delighted – the growth of 9000% +.
They, it should be noted, fell into the gap of the mass distribution of PCs. MS became the new General Electric.
Even the new EDS. Prior to this, Oracle, Xerox, etc…
In 2015, Apple was worth $ 700 billion. If you correct for the inflation rate, Microsoft in 2000 cost $900 billion.
In the same year, Bill Gates resigned as CEO and began to quietly raise charity. After 17 years of stagnation, the shares of the global office went down.
Maturity is always old.
The period of rapid innovation is at max. of a dozen years. If you’re lucky.
Further on the organization changes its structures, head and marketing practice. It starts to earn on an existing market share and, the worst for the consumer and not less good for the nominal owner, it has a lot of cash for which it buys itself youth: it vacuums the market in search of amplifiers and resonators.
If you look at the list of acquisitions of MS, Oracle or HP, it is easy to understand when problems begin – with the purchase of comparable organizations with their own size.
If we are talking about deal cost billions of USD, then we are dealing with a substitution function.
There is a platform for co-financing progress and the company’s shell is gradually standardized to the full emasculation of content.
MS is also primarily a financial organization and a corporate law department.
Then «the company at death», with high liquidity, but non-competitive production processes becomes a victim of the rising star.
Just as it was once eaten by other players in the market.
The natural cycle.
While no one has come up with a way to defeat the maturity.
Get back to the collection of apples – Apple will increasingly buy until it becomes a few years (maybe sooner) that platform, which will take the next “apple” for a similar price.
The question is who will it be.
A couple of months ago, they threw in information about the purchase of the company by Disney.
I think that this was a return bid for an attempt to swallow a piece of business of a good storyteller.
In this case, it would not be long to argue – everyone who is aware of the market situation should spit out a piece of the sinful fruit, should run as fast as possible.
The descending avalanche was buried in the foreseeable period of time under a good half of those who could not short enough :-)