Written by John Smith
As the title states, the Washington DC Think Tank crowd have been itching, along with the military industrial complex, for another major war. They are still attempting to draw Iran into a trap but so far that hasn’t worked because of the pragmatism of the Iranian leadership.
However, they knew they could rattle Vladmir Putin’s cage with the threat of potential EU and NATO membership for Ukraine; however, Putin is showing he’s better at chess than the Western Alliances.
The first question we must look at is, could Putin and the Russian military be successful in an invasion of Ukraine? The short answer is yes but, with a very big but. The but being, at what cost? President Putin has been funneling billions into his military since he first entered the Kremlin. After years of inadequate funding and negligence, the country’s military was in a genuinely terrible position when he took office. When it was used in the first Chechen War, it was an absolute failure.
First, we must look at the Russian military itself. The current Russian military is somewhat of an upgrade of the old Soviet Union military; remember the East German military used to be one of the strongest militaries in Europe at one point, now look at Germany. There is only one year of service requirements for Russia’s soldiers, and it is widely known within the walls of US intelligence that between their training and their final demobilization month, the majority of Russian conscripts are only useful for about five months of that service year.
So usually there is too much turnover in the Russian military conscripts to maintain an adequately trained professional military force. Conscripts are also paid only 2,000 Russian Rubles per month (about $27 USD). Whereas, the military contracts pay more than 62,000 rubles ($1,102) per month on average, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. This is complemented by a competitive benefits and pension plan for those Russians who get military service contracts.
The Russian military also lacks a professional NCO, non-commissioned officer, corps; which entails the use of long serving enlisted leaders for the junior conscripts. A competent NCO, non-commissioned officer, corps is also required for the successful elimination of hazing, which is among the Russian military’s most chronic problems. The practice of violent hazing, is widespread in the Russian Army and tends to reduce the number of soldiers who want to stay enlisted long term. The lack of the NCO corps also makes battlefield control much more difficult and puts its officer’s corps more in harm’s way.
The Russian Officer corps are not that good either. A substantial number of Russian military officers have resigned from their positions, either because they are disillusioned or disgusted, or simply because they are fed up with the physical and psychological conditions in which they are compelled to serve. Russian officers tend to be appointed or promoted due to family connections, bribery, and/or corruption. There is also a highly known use of drugs and alcoholism in the Russian Officer corps. Many lower ranking Russian Officers live in abject poverty conditions: run down apartments, inadequate food, and infested with insects.
The Russian Navy is notorious for having tug boats along with its naval fleet due to the fact of their ships breaking down and needing to be towed back to port, as well as the Russian Air Force and the lack of proper maintenance on much of its aging aircraft, lack of upkeep and decay of military equipment, insufficient training, and outright carelessness by Russian Air Force pilots and maintenance staff.
Secondly, we must look at the Russian public perception of a war with Ukraine. Putin fully understands that the Russian public consider the Ukrainians to be their friendly neighbors and former comrades in the Soviet Union. This means the Russian public doesn’t see the necessity for a war with Ukraine and Ukraine poses no threat to the Russian people. Additionally, Putin is well aware of his past fiasco in the first war with Chechnya where around 7,500 Russian soldiers were killed, a large amount of Russian military equipment was destroyed, and there was backlash both from the Russian public and Chechens on the brutality of this conflict. Let alone the physical destruction in Chechnya itself.
Putin would face a similar resistance in Ukraine because the Ukraine military is better trained, equipped and funded than in 2014 when the Ukrainian civil war with the breakaway republics occurred; the CIA and US Special Forces have been training Ukrainian militias in the art of a counterinsurgency war against the Russian military should they invade, which means you can invade but have difficulty holding territory; and the notorious Azov Battalion is one of the Ukrainian military detachments known for its serious fighting skills and determination. Also, the estimated initial casualties for the Russians would be anywhere from 5,000 to 15,000 dead Russian soldiers, which the Russian public would not tolerate.
Finally, the economic consequences for Russia should they invade Ukraine. It is undeniable that large-scale military operations have a high monetary cost in terms of the amount of fuel that is required for military vehicles and aircraft, the amount of munition consumption, and the loss or replacement of soldiers. Costs associated with the current deployment are not exactly zero and can become substantial and unmanageable over the long term. Plus, the effect of international sanctions on the already fragile Russian economy would create dissension on the Russian home front for the invasion and sway public opinion even further away from Putin.
For years now, a broad coalition of Washington neocons and neoliberals has foolishly stoked tensions between Russia and the United States. The Western Alliances have deployed tens of billions of dollars in armaments to one of the world’s most volatile locations, looking to get some kind of eruption. Groups that dragged us into conflicts in Iraq, Libya, and Syria are now the same ones that are dragging us into this conflict with Russia. Putin is pragmatic and doesn’t necessarily want a war with the US and NATO but is concerned with a democratic Ukraine that is a member of the EU and NATO on the doorstep of Russia.
If you want to stop Putin, he only understands cleverness and strength, but hit him where it hurts the worst; his pocketbook. The Russian state, enterprises, individual Russian people, and even outsiders have all been taken advantage of by Putin since he came to power. According to calculations, he is the world’s richest man, and since the year 2000, he has siphoned off at least $200 billion for his own benefit, if not more. Putin uses oligarchs to hold and hide his money. These oligarchs do not store their money in Russia, but rather in the United States or Europe.
There is a weapon known as the Magnitsky Act, which was named after the assassinated Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, and it can be used to put a halt to Putin. The Magnitsky Act gives the United States government the ultimate authority to freeze the assets and prohibit the travel of anyone who is implicated in grand corruption or crimes against humanity in any country. Anyone who is placed on the U.S. Treasury’s Magnitsky List is effectively declared a global outcast, and they are unable to engage in commerce with anyone, anywhere around the world. That would put pressure on the oligarchs to put pressure on Putin.
The President of the United States, working with the EU and the United Kingdom, should give Putin a date by which he must withdraw his forces from an agreed upon substantial distance from the Ukrainian border, failing which the United States will sanction 100 of his oligarchs under the Magnitsky Act. In the case that Putin invades Ukraine, the United States will make it clear that they will penalize another 100 oligarchs under the Magnitsky Act, bringing the total number of sanctioned oligarchs up to 200. This will stop Putin now and for the long term without the necessity of a war.
jens drools when Tammy sewer sends 1 used condom
Who’s Tammy Sewer?
Its from the book named Uncle Tom’s Cabin. Tom here by evil persons can be seen as a traitor to his own black origin, because he is no hero not bright and adapt to the conditions, the white has.
Many forget Tom as slave had very few choises (Tom is a fiction person only).
Harriet Beecher Stowe wrote the book two years before the North South war in USA. She was support for non slavery and more equal womens rights.
You never will get information from Youri.
nazi rat should stay in arkansas trailer park with other discarded senile amerikants
Not even nzis will live in Your tarilerpark not even if they are dead.
Seriously, who’s Tammy Sewer?
Who wrote that pile of horse shit?
More interesting: Why would the Russians running SF publish this neocon propaganda? After the US sanctioned SF, the Russian state or whoever Oligarch they channeld the funds through seems to have cut the money off, and right after that they started to push those scam bitcoin “sponsored posts”. Now this? SF folks seem to be pretty angry at Putin now, i can see that much. Crazy. And right now when the Ukranians and their master are launching their war. WTF.
And one sober but somehow hostile article turns Your behind upside down.
Maybee You should comment, where You agree and disagree. The name for that is debate. This is not about putting You behind towards Mecca or the opposite.
Funny quote from Wikki:
a formal discussion on a particular matter in a public meeting or legislative assembly, in which opposing arguments are put forward and which usually ends with a vote. “last night’s debate on the Education Bill”
Thats quite a long projection there sherlock.
Nothing wrong with being in the middle of the road in a blizzard.
That being said , this article sucks.
John Smith and his non named buddy Jack Jones. Aka Smith and Jones of MI5.11111111 Or cunts from a similar sewer
MI5 is not that stupid. Compare less with Yourself.
Stupid no, greedy ass fucks yes.
Its almost a western version for many things. Thats very unusual for this site.
Written by a true Kosher chicken hawk, neo-con, adult diaper whore masquerading as an opinion piece. The description of the Russian enlisted, NCO and officer personnel sounds like something from a decades ago NATO assessment of Soviet military capabilities: in other words, complete biased, unadulterated rat feces. Does the author even have any military experience? I recommend he travel to the Ukro-Donetsk and Lugansk borders and go on a few patrols as the point man. Then he can see how inept the Russian Army is firsthand. Remember, there is very little intelligence in any of the US/NATO intelligence agencies.
Others here already has written close to this as well as Youtuves has decriebed, what he writes. He just bring it here adding some kommas here and there.
We also has the miliatary parts of low treatment and education for officers as well. They all can be verified by Russian documents in Russia signed by Russian Leaders.
“a democratic Ukraine that is a member of the EU and NATO on the doorstep of Russia”…. how is Ukraine democratic, on which basis are EU and even NATO?
There we go again.
Ukraine is no member of Nato as well as EU.
Put in Navalnev and let him have his 200 votes.
Doesn’t matter if he intended or not, the war is upon him…
Does anyone really believes that entire western industry of lies working overtime for 2-3 months for nothing?? That Biden&co will just apologize for lying? There will be war, limited or not. That’s what they plan since 2014. that’s the whole point of Maidan putsch and everything after Maidan.
We can see how fake anti Western propaganda you South Front you are delivering. You must stop this. In special be a bit more professional with the pictures, you can see from a mille away that the pictures in description is fake
Its written below those pictures, when they are ILLUSTRATIVE.
I do know Your expectations. You blindfold Yourself talking up, what You are told to. In the same way everything from here is talked down.
Shut up nazi pig. It’s SF’ site, they will write how they want. They aint here to please your ukro nazi ass.
I agree about getting information from all sides… I watch/listen to main stream media regularly so I can keep up with the latest propaganda, where they are going with it and what they are trying to achieve. It really is quite useful sometimes. But this one is the same old fluff regurgitated, nothing of use.
Edit: P.S. It is also a very useful tool to see HOW they use/create propaganda – it serves to make you aware of their techniques so you can resist it better next time. !!!
The last few paragraphs of this article are complete drivel. How effective were the Crimea sanctions? With all of the sanctions that have already been put on Russia over Crimea, do really think more sanctions are going to matter? These talking-head geniuses funded by neocons can only come up with more of the same failed policies of the past.
What evidence is there that Putin is worried about personal wealth?
And it is utterly ridiculous to tell a country where it must station its own troops within its own territory!
Pussy Putin never intends for anything, he just rolls over for ZioCorporatists like a shill!
I think that Lougansk and Donesk men will handle war by themselves. Russia could sell them weapons at the border without intervene on Ukraine soil.
The author’s opinion is detached from realty especially on the Russian military, Russian Public, Putin & Azov battalion. Do a little bit research before posting such a shit.
If you guys havent noticed, the Russians have been telegraphing that they are willing to bear any cost for their red lines.
If it kills NATO, expansionism, and USA… I think it’s worth it.
Please who is the retard that wrote this messed up post and why did SF allow such smelling garbage to be posted on their site
I am disappointed in Souhfront for posting western propaganda.
South front would do well to vet the author’s of such garbage before posting.
Dude, can you even get any more CIA propagandist? “John Smith” is literally the most common masculine name in amerika.