Negotiations on the settlement of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine have come to another standstill, and again it’s come to it due to the activities of Kiev.
The Ukrainian authorities need to start implementing the Minsk agreements to unblock the process, says Oleg Onopko, a deputy of the People’s Council of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic.
Earlier, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that the situation in the negotiations to resolve the conflict in Donbass resembles a dead end, but the parties need to take steps to unblock the process without crossing the “red lines.”
“The situation at the talks in Minsk not only resembles a dead end – it is a 100% “merit” of the Ukrainian side. Over the entire period of the negotiation process, Kiev has not taken any steps to overcome the impasse, but, on the contrary, systematically brought the situation to the point of absurdity, ignoring all the promising proposals of our side,” Onopko said.
According to him, Kuleba proposes to take steps to unblock the process, but in fact “the Ukrainian side is not planning to take any steps”, demanding this only from the DPR and LPR.
“At the same time, some” action plans “of Kiev are not only ridiculous, but also destructive, fundamentally contradicting the Minsk agreements,” Onopko explained.
And simultaneously, Ukrainian security forces intensified shelling in Eastern Ukraine, the current ceasefire is under threat of failure.
The plenipotentiary of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic in the contact group for Ukraine, DPR Foreign Minister Natalya Nikonorova said on December 4th.
Earlier, the DPR said that the Ukrainian security forces fired on the south of the republic from a 120-mm mortar on Friday morning, two militias were killed.
“On the line of contact, the situation is increasingly aggravating – Kiev has intensified shelling from weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements. This is confirmed not only by the increase in the number of violations of the ceasefire regime, but also by the caliber of the weapons used,” Nikonorova said.
According to the plenipotentiary representative of the DPR, over the past two months, Ukrainian security forces have fired over 200 shells with calibers of 120 and 82 mm across the republic. Nikonorova recalled that according to the Minsk agreements, tanks, mortars, artillery must be withdrawn from the line of contact.
“We hope that the OSCE SMM (Special Monitoring Mission) in Ukraine and its leader will take the most active position in order to stop the shelling by the armed formations of Ukraine leading to the death of people as soon as possible. In connection with these facts, the current ceasefire is under threat of failure. We demand to proceed as quickly as possible with the approval of the updated package of measures, since Ukraine has withdrawn from the agreement agreed in July 2020,” Nikonorova noted.
Ukraine, however, appears to consider expanding its options, as its “solo efforts” have proved ineffective in completely destroying any hope for a peaceful settlement. It appears, however, that it hopes Turkey would come and help.
Unnamed sources in the DPR People’s Militia Department, who were cited by Russian media, said that after Azerbaijan’s victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, Ankara is sending military advisers to Ukraine.
The Turkish generals, together with the Ukrainian General Staff, are allegedly working on an operation to return the self-proclaimed DPR, LPR and even Crimea under Kiev’s control. Perhaps these will be two operations that may not start simultaneously and will take place in reconnaissance mode.
At the same time, “behind enemy lines” it is planned to use Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) purchased from Turkey according to the scenario of the Karabakh war.
This is quite possible, since Kiev since Azerbaijan’s victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, with quite a bit of help from Turkey has given them the impression that the success could be repeated in Eastern Ukraine.
According to various reports, a hybrid provocation is expected in Eastern Ukraine. And similarly to how it turned out for Azerbaijan, Turkish experts will move in and attain control of the Ukrainian armed forces, and coordinate various movements such as air strikes, likely deploy militants (if it comes to it) and carry out ground strikes.
A quick and adequate response will be required from the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.
In case of a delayed reaction of the command of the People’s Militia to the use of UAVs at strong points and defense centers of the Republics, the enemy will attempt to occupy a number of settlements and key heights in order to “level” the line of contact in favor of Kiev.
Of course, defending against it appears all within the realm of possibilities for the republics, since their level of equipment and potential support is much more significant than that of Armenia when it came to Nagorno-Karabakh. Perhaps, from a tactical and operational point of view, such a success will not be so critical for Donetsk and Lugansk, but from the point of view of the information war in Kiev, they will want to turn it into a colossal success.
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