EU Think Tank Claims Russia Orchestrates Crises Near Borders To Secure Internal Stability

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EU Think Tank Claims Russia Orchestrates Crises Near Borders To Secure Internal Stability

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On November 19th, The European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) released a report named “Putin’s fourth term: The Twilight Begins?” which claims that despite apparent stability and strength, Russia’s political system is weak and prone to crisis.

The summary of the report is as follows:

  • Russia recently concluded a major electoral cycle (2016-2018) that extended the life-expectancy of the current political system;
  • By all outward signs, the president, the system’s key figure, has avoided any weakening of his position and emerged stronger after the elections;
  • Nonetheless, President Putin faces four short- and long-term vulnerabilities: a lack of an appealing metanarrative for a fourth term in office, declining output legitimacy, an overconcentration of power and expectations surrounding his eventual departure from the Kremlin;
  • Regardless what decision the president makes by 2024 (to stay or leave), Russia has entered a prolonged period of uncertainty and fluctuations in political power are looming.

These conclusions are basd on one research of the attitude of the Russian population conducted by the Levada Center between April and September 2018 and stories published in various media outlets – simply news articles.

Overall the report claims two things:

  • Firstly, that in order to secure internal stability and power the Russian government allegedly orchestrates various crises on its borders. This, according to the report, allows Vladimir Putin to show foreign policy victories to the voters, as well as prompt a patriotic feeling within them. Naturally, it is expected from them to vote for the person who brings in victories and protects the nation.
  • Secondly, to achieve output legitimacy and raise popularity in addition to further stability, Russia partakes in megaprojects, for which it reportedly does not possess the resources. However, the numerous oligarchs in the country do – thus they are publicly “asked” to invest in the projects. It is a sort of coercion, since it would be unacceptable to decline a proposal from the leader which is to the benefit of the whole population.

The report provides various opinion polls prior to and following various incidents, such as the Russian-Georgian war of 2008, the events in Crimea, the Chechnya situation. Other than that, it cites various news articles, some of which are based on empirical data from reports, most of them based on no concrete evidence whatsoever.

In the following quote the researchers are attempting to provide results from a focus group, which is a qualitative method of research as one that can be representative for the entire population. It may possibly be accurate, regardless it is not ethical from a researcher’s standpoint. However, its accuracy does not come from the applied methods, but rather is achieved by chance:

“Interviews by Russian sociologists with focus groups support this notion of an increase in public anxiety about the financial impact of foreign policy adventures on citizens’ prosperity. In particular, respondents complain that too much attention and money is spent on defence and military operations, resent the costs associated with Crimea’s annexation, and express alarm over the prospects of Russia financing Syria’s reconstruction. It seems that after four consecutive years of falling living standards, society’s mood is slowly changing. In 2017, citizens’ real incomes fell to 2009 levels.”

The report also attempted to find the reasons of the opinion polls, which amounts to speculation. Because, a one-dimensional presentation of facts does not also describe the reasoning behind it. Meaning that all conclusions reached on the basis of the opinion polls, might correspond to reality, but they were not reached through research, they were reached through guessing. The reasons behind various social phenomena are discovered by conducting a research that attempts to correlate the public attitude with different factors, which here has not been done.

In all, the report provides a one-sided look at the entire situation and, in fact, looks that the entire text was designed to reach a pre-determined conclusion.

Even if we take the point of view provided in the report that the crises along the border may be a way for Russia to rally the voters and secure internal stability, the fact is that most of these crises were triggered not by Russia and often the Kremlin just reacted to the developing events. One of the widely-known examples is the 2008 war in Georgia. Since the very start of the conflict, Western states and mainstream media were accusing Russia of starting the war. But later Western states were forced to admit, at least officially, through international mechanizms, if not publicly in their propaganda, that the war was in fact launched by actions of the Saakashvili regime.

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  • verner

    sure thing – that nato is all over the various border regions in its futile attempt to drag Russia into a war, has no bearing on the matter.

    Just seeing fatso would cause the Russian MOD to alert the armed forces to be prepared!

  • Sinbad2

    Think tank, another American oxymoron.

    • Jens Holm

      Its a normal used word in west. Those are private or public paid experts and many are not neutral – more like lobbyists.

      So when You meet one, You have to seee, who they are thinking for – just as with lawyers.

  • You can call me Al

    THINK TANK + EU = THEY DO NOT THINK FOR THE PEOPLE, tell them to FO and save their nonsense for the Yanks.

    • Jens Holm

      Yerrh, much eaysier like the version making many hip-hips at You like talking with the radio.

      Let me remind You, thats there are many think tanks in EU, so You can and and subtracts and hopefully find Your own result/oppinion.

      Thats named as free speech – or a part of it. EU is not like that at all. Its a part of us – too.

      Think tanks also are made to devellop things, and they do.

  • Fred Summers

    URGENT –

    Catch this story before it vanishes. Cover up has already begun!

    Reports coming in that a serious assination attempt against a Senior Russian Military Officer and an unknown team of specialists due to travel to Crimea by boat from either Novorossiysk or Anapa has been foiled by Russian Special Forces and Specialist Dive Teams.

    An undersea drone was detected directly below the planned route of the boat (near the resort town of Anapa, just a few miles from a special military facility (in Novorossiysk?).

    It was detected during a security operation following a tip off.

    Underwater drone appeared to be of western design and was carrying a conventional explosive device clearly of Ukrainian origin.

    Decision made to move it away from boat route and detonate as close to harbour as was safe so that forensic evidence could be recovered.

    It is believed even at this early stage that the attack was a FALSE FLAG provocation to be blamed on Ukraine.

    All forensic evidence now recovered and a cover up is now in operation.

    As blast was seen and heard by thousands of people the official cover story is that a WW2 sea-mine had been washed into the harbour and was safely disposed of by bomb-disposal teams from the nearby military facility.

    No further details at this stage.

    This is yet another provocation foiled.

    Unknown who is responsible for provocation at this stage, but as Ukraine is already ruled out it leaves only the 2 usual suspects.

    • Fred Summers

      Also,

      Reports coming in about the recent Sea of Japan incident and the recent US and UK freedom of navigation exercises –

      Apparently they are part of the final calibration test of a new laser based navigation and targeting system to be used in the event of EW attack or GPS denial areas.
      Apparently US egos bruised from being laughed at from Running from Chinese and now Russian ships blabbed about having the last laugh with new navigational laser systems.

      • Fred Summers

        Also,

        Another report coming in that the Iranian Navy have trolled the US 5th fleet by sending them a recording of a Sopranos Episode – Bronx Tale Bar Fight Scene. The US clearly being the biker gang and the locked door clearly being the Strait of Hormuz.
        Very clever indeed, and follows the theme of TV series trolling, including the recent Game of Thrones Poster.

      • Fred Summers

        Time to get head out of sand and engage brain guys.

        Look up laser reflection targeting and directed energy technology.
        It is a completely new navigation grid.
        It makes this sytem look ‘so 80’s’;
        https://defensesystems.com/articles/2017/09/19/northrop-navy-gyro.aspx

        Also, this is my last comment on this website. I will shut the door on my way out.

    • Fred Summers

      Link to a Main Stream report on this cover up of latest false flag attempt:

      https://sputniknews.com/russia/201812061070430971-ww2-mine-detonation/

      (Fringe web link to follow)

      • Jens Holm

        I put max filter up for plutnik.

    • AM Hants

      Reminds me of one of the comments, when the Kerch Strait incident took place, there were meant to be explosives on the tug boat. Then you had the fact that the UK Minister of Defence ‘dimwit Williamson’ was over in Ukraine recently. Not forgetting, he had sent 30 marines, plus, a surveillance ship to Ukraine. Plus, didn’t they send the SBS Forces, a couple of years ago, to train the Ukraine Far Right Forces? Now what skills would the SBS have to pass on. Why is the US sending a warship to the Black Sea? Why are the UK and Ukraine so close, remember who was behind helping the Dems with ‘Russia Gate’?

      Presidential elections in March. Dems, taking over the committees, in Washington, from January. Xmas is coming and the satanists hate it. Nord Stream II cancellation. So what is being planned and by whom?

      FORMER UKRAINIAN DEPUTY ALEKSEY ZHURAVKO: THE ORDER TO PROVOKE RUSSIA IN THE KERCH STRAIT CAME FROM THE US EMBASSY… http://www.stalkerzone.org/former-ukrainian-deputy-aleksey-zhuravko-the-order-to-provoke-russia-in-the-kerch-strait-came-from-the-us-embassy/

      • Fred Summers

        Yes. Way too many coincidences and ‘leaks’. UK and US clearly pulling all the strings now. Latest undersea drone attack would realistically be an SBS / Navy Seal operation to be either credited or blamed on Ukraine (depending upon outcome).

        The Russians must have a bus load of evidence by now, but apart from a few diplomatic words from Lavrov, nothing made public yet.

        The Ukrainians clearly expect something to come out soon as they are moving up thier disinfo campaign. This news article is the latest disinfo attempt:

        https://www.unian.info/politics/10366206-eu-experts-expose-russia-s-long-term-disinformation-plan-for-azov-sea.html

      • Fred Summers

        Just for you – this is apparently very similar, but less advanced than the undersea vehicle used in the assination attempt. I have given up spoon feeding other people on this site now as they are clueless, they just dont get the games being played. These things are now being supplied to Ukraine. Note the choice of ‘payload’. https://www.militaryaerospace.com/articles/2018/05/unmanned-underwater-vehicle-uuv-weapons-payloads.html

        • AM Hants

          Thanks for the link. Now why does Sea of Azov come to mind, when placing the advert?

          ‘…The Navy’s request for information is to help experts understand market availability, technical characteristics, cost, and functionality of information technology (IT) tools, applications, or products for enabling UUVs to stop or disable 50-meter vessels, and to provide the Navy with an asymmetrical warfare advantage during UUV operations in complex, shallow-water, and cluttered littoral environments…’

  • Alex

    The report is meant for the eu public lol, hold on , the end is near, we have almost won.

  • AM Hants

    Think tanks, plus, focus groups, who only look for one explanation, plus, one set of results, which has to provide the answer they demand. Many remember the Yeltsin years. Do they wish to go back there? However, the opposition, who want to give Russia back to the Rothschild oligarchs, desperately hope they will reach the teenagers, who were not around during the Yeltsin era. Russia has 6 years to work on that problem.

  • VeeNarian (Yerevan)

    All Western “leaders” should research 1789. Mr Souflett Macron could be toast by the weekend or by the next financial crash, while his stink tanks predict the demise of RF and China.

    • Jens Holm

      Well, everybody else had old or dirty hands for cleaning up and avoided it, so Macron is doing his best.

      As You – always negative to almost anything in west – You are not to rely on at all.

      As not French I adn EU has asked for that cleaning for Years. Even parts are not succes – even burned cars – he is clening well. None normal person can expect all is OK after a year or too.

      And it is true, the french as others can use less fuel as well as parts of the thin populated areas cant take the bus, train or metro.

      In our parlament its decided that people driving as pendler more then 25 km a day get kompensation pr kilometer. Its not as complicated as it seemes. The Govermenet know where You live and work for most of them.

  • Robert McMaster

    Pot calls kettle black. Yes, Russia has to quell dissent over its Brexit. And subdue its yellow vests. Also, to tame the fury of eltist austerity. And crumbling infastructure, health care cuts. Turbulent Greece, Spain and Italy are all part of Russia so that proves the thesis.

    When you trot out a line like this its useful to think of the consequences of looking so stupid.

  • Titel Gogurion

    STIRI FALSE MINCIUNI PENTRU PROSTI