The EU Is Changing Its Approach To Russia. What Awaits The Eurasian Integration?

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The EU Is Changing Its Approach To Russia. What Awaits The Eurasian Integration?

German Chancellor Angela Merkel talks to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin at the start of the first working session of the G20 meeting in Hamburg, Germany, July 7, 2017. © Kay Nietfeld / Reuters

Written by Dmitry Yevstafiev; Originally appeared at Eurasia.expert; Translated by AlexD exclusively for SouthFront

Russia’s economic growth after the crisis forced many countries thinking that Moscow will not be able to do without enormous infusion of foreign capital, to rethink their position. In the complicated relations between the EU with the US and with not the fastest pace of rapprochement with China the optimal decision for the European Union is the development of relations with Russia, but political factors complicate the implementation of this course. The post-Soviet republics of Eurasia, working with an eye to the West, are not in a hurry to increase the pace with the Russian Federation. Will Moscow grow tired of “Eurasian integration into one direction”?

Noticeable changes are occurring in the West’s representative’s estimation of relations with Russia. More and more representative of Western, primarily, European elite advocate for the “normalization” of relations with Russia and a gradual lifting of sanctions from our country. Lately Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron as well as other notable European politicians spoke in this vein. Thus, the president of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier offered to start a gradual change of sanctions against Russia in case of the realisation of the proposal of deploying peacekeepers in the Donbas.

Unexpected Economic Growth

Western leaders continue to accuse Russia in fomenting political tension. But these statements today reflect more the desire to ease the conditions of cooperation in economic matters, putting aside the political differences. The most far-sighted representatives of the Western political and economic elites began a more sober assessment of the prospects of economic and political developments with Russia.

Of course the economic growth in Russia is in its early phase and still fragile, dependent on the cycles of government orders and the consequences of sub-contracts for medium-sized businesses. But the growth is nevertheless a fact: one can argue about its pace but not about the fact itself. Russia, nevertheless, managed to avoid the significant negative social consequences of the economic downturn. In fact, Moscow did not give in to any concessions in the dialogue with the West, has strengthened its international image as an independent country, and most importantly, was able to demonstrate a higher level of investment attractiveness. And not only for “risky” investors, in contrast to the summer of 2013.

Of course in the Russian economy there are many problems, such as the potential instability in the financial sector, but it is clear that the worst-case scenarios discussed in 2014-2015, Russia managed to avoid them.

The question is what structure will the economic growth have in Russia for the period after 2018, and how this structure will affect Russia’s external economic relations. Although it is already clear that Russia’s foreign “freedom of maneuvers” will be significantly bigger than in 2013. And for Moscow’s partners, this is a serious challenge.

Many in the West were confident that they would have the deal at least with an economically weakened Russia, and at most, with Russia in which the process of Confederation was restarted. So Moscow’s ongoing steps of dismantling of “enclave capitalism” in some national republics of Russia have a long-term political significance.

Post-crisis Russia saw a country desperately in need of foreign capital inflows, and not only direct investments but also working capital used for the preservation of the financial stability. That is a country ready to go to unprecedented concessions to its partners that this capital will provide. The USA and the West in general were not the only ones to act to this logic, but also these countries that at the political level, proclaimed sympathies to Moscow, including in the East.

The European Union: “Plan B” for Russia

Now in front of Moscow’s partners stands the question of working out a “Plan B”. This is not a trivial matter, considering the depth of the distortion of reality in some Western politicians. The latter that can be appreciated, for example, after reading the article of the Deputy of the Bundestag from the Green Party, Marieluise Beck in the German newspaper Nue Zurcher Zeitung, in which she plans to fight “Russian aggression”, opening the eyes of Russian society to the “prosperity of the West” through the introduction of a visa-free regime between Russia and the EU.

Overall, however, in the EU they are beginning to understand the long term of the current trends (which is, for example, the gradual increase of growth forecasts of the Russian economy). Although the case has not yet reached the new level of awareness of the quality of this growth as a result of the reliance on the real sector and the domestic resources for investment and not external lending.

The strongest opinions about Russia’s withdrawal from the crisis and the need to find a new modus operandi with it come from Germany. Although it is this country that was the engine behind the anti-Russian sanctions in the EU and most deeply came in the anti-Russian policies and propaganda. Probably the German elites fear the “Polonization” of German policy towards Russia: uncontrolled destruction of economic ties with Russia under the influence of propaganda.

In terms of actual ideological, and in the long-term economic war with the United States and the slowdown of closer relations with China and Russia, at least in the short term becomes a real priority for the EU.

At a minimum it is essential that Europe retain an economic base for relations with Russia and the failure of the Moscow administrative measures to limit the presence of German capital in Russia (a possibility that is already being discussed at expert levels). At a maximum the EU and Germany are interested in preserving the preferential access to the Russian market of 2011 (this today is quite unlikely) and resources. The prospects for such a scenario are that the Russian leadership has also seen the lack of prospects for progress in the structure of the European elites and their attitudes towards Russia.

Crimea – Is there a Solution?

The problem is that in Europe they would like to get out of the anti-Russian “hole” but without questioning the basic foundation of Western policy towards Russia and not forcing the political leadership to “lose face”. Hence the extended formula on the situation around Crimea by the important representatives of the German elite – “a temporary solution for an indefinite period”, which leaves room for wide interpretations, and in the short-term perspectives offers significant operational flexibility. From this, the recognition of the ineffectiveness of the sanctions policy, and attempts to teach their own public opinion to believe that the current political regime in Russia is “serious and here to stay”, and they have to find common ground.

Access to credit is considered as the main instrument for managing relations with Moscow, presently in the European countries, which seems will be limited for a long time, and this factor will indeed be a serious obstacle for economic growth in Russia. For the European elites it is important to create such a situation where Moscow could overcome this restriction only under conditions of a favourable attitude on the part of the EU.

It is possible that the disproportionally exaggerated, and then unnaturally quickly hushed, scandal with the supply of turbines by Siemens for the Crimean CHP have been artificially engineered to demonstrate the importance of tacit acceptance of Russia from their side for successful further developments. It is quite possibly not the last of the “information and economic outbursts” of such type, and with the strengthening of the economic growth, their numbers may even increase.

However in the financial sphere, the EU does not appear presently as a fully independent player, capable of opposing the domination the USA in global finances. Moscow understands this very well.

And What About the Eurasian Allies?

But the question of forming relations with Russia under the new scenario is not only relevant for the EU countries. Such challenges face the countries of post-Soviet Eurasia, which also in recent years have actually slowed down the integration process. This is understandable; the countries of the EEU acted against Russia in exactly the same political and economic logic as the countries of the West and China. Indeed, the development of integration processes with the EEU was actually frozen, and was not much advanced beyond the “free trade zone” phase. As experience has shown, the political inertia of the Eurasian countries was greater than Russia’s partners of the “far” abroad countries.

There emerges a peculiar situation. The EU are trying to work out a model of relationship with Russia where the political factors are minimized. But some post-Soviet countries (possibly as result of external manipulation) are trying to continue to act on the basis of incorrect perceptions about Russia’s development prospects.

Thus, these countries may lose their competitive edges that still linger in their relationships with Russia and the preferences that they achieved in the process of “Eurasian integration”.

They should face the truth: the engine of economic growth in post-Soviet Eurasia can only be Russia (in the social sector this role could be played by Belarus and the quality control leader would be Kazakhstan).

The country will face a strange situation when key players of the global economic space (the EU, China, India, key countries of the Middle East) will have an economic rapprochement with Russia, turning political differences into a slow stream, then as the countries of New Eurasia the volitions of political stereotypes will move away from Moscow. Then Moscow will face the inevitable question that will arise about how will it be appropriate to continue to consider the integration processes within the EEU as a strategic priority.

It is obvious that in Moscow there is a certain weariness of the “Eurasian integration into one direction”, which in the new economic conditions is not so critical even from the propaganda point of view.

In this sense, the Eurasian integration is experiencing one of the most difficult stages in its development. The discussions at the highest economic and political levels on the prospects if not the “new industrialization” of Eurasia, which could effectively in political and economic terms, complement and balance the Chinese project of the zone of shared prosperity the “Great Silk Road”, at least resuscitate joint industrial projects in the framework of the EAEC, would be timely.

Dmitry Yevstafiev, Professor, NRU Higher School of Economics

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  • Freespirit

    Russia must always keep in Mind that the EU is ruled by Zionists, such as MERKEL, who have ONE GOAL – DOMINATION of this planet and they can NEVER be trusted with agreements –

    “WAR by DECEPTION”

    • AlexanderAmproz

      Merkel is a Protestant under US-NATO-Zionist
      pressure and Control. I do believe Germany Future
      has to be with Russia.
      America will do all what they can to avoid it !

      During Centuries the Tsars wife were always German Princes

  • XRGRSF

    “Access to credit is considered as the main instrument for managing relations with Moscow”

    Please explain to me, in small words that I can understand, why it is to Russia’s advantage to be in debt to European/Zionist usury lenders?

    • Florian N

      It is about investments. Russia needs more investments for its economy and EU has the money.

      • Freespirit

        EU DOESN’T have the money.

        Even Jacob Rothschild, who “owns” the EU BANKING SYSTEM doesn’t-What he does have is a MONOPOLY ! He, via his useful idiots simply enters digits in your account BUT the price for that action, is not worth it -SLAVERY

        Russia can do the same for itself so what is HIDDEN, that we are not being told?

        Canada used to have full control over its money system, BEFORE 1974, and never had any left over debt at the beginning of a new budget time..

        Now it is part of the House of Rothschild banking system, it has at least 1 Trillion in debt and for a country of 33 million THAT is a lot of FUTURE trouble.

        • FlorianGeyer

          Indeed. All the Western Zionist banks would do is lend ‘ created money’ that they have obtained from the EU Central bank, so effectively the Russian people would be working to pay interest on money borrowed from a Zionist ‘printing press’.

          This is of course how Western nations enslave their own populations as well.

        • AlexanderAmproz

          This article is done with declassified Bank of England “Archives”
          What happening in Syria isn’t much different…
          Anglo-American Money Owners Organized World War II
          by Valentin Katasonov
          http://www.voltairenet.org/article187508.html

          This one isn’t bad too,

          The Merchant of Death: Basil Zaharoff

          TAGS BiographiesWar and Foreign PolicyWorld History

          08/24/2007John T. Flynn

          If the Lord God Jehovah had not created Basil Zaharoff, some novelist sooner or later would certainly have got around to the job. Indeed, it is by no means certain that Zaharoff, as we have him, is not the joint product of God and the fiction writers.
          https://mises.org/library/merchant-death-basil-zaharoff

          • Brother Ma

            I have read book on zaharoff.he is famous for selling guns to one state then going to enemy the next and scaring them so that they buy.he is famous for having no race loyalty.born a greek in ottoman times he had no problem selling to his peoples enemies.some evidence he was a jew but case is far from closed.

            Closest persons to him today i can think of is richard perle and soros.

          • AlexanderAmproz

            The Rothschild are also known for that
            The US have 225 years History of Wars,
            genocides is an American way of life economy…
            If you look at Irak-Iran War, it was just an extermination target
            on Colonialism purposes. Gas to Saddam were sold by Donald Rumsfeld
            (the Aspartame and Roundup Lobbyist),
            then you had the Irangate with Oliver North…
            Khomeini was profiled by French and US on purpose
            Madeleine Albright said she was proud 500’000 Iraqi Children’s
            died thanks of the US medicines Embargo.
            What happened with Kissinger supporting Pol-Pot, Vietnam,
            Suharto in 64, 2.5 Millions victims, Laos without to be at war
            got more bombs than Germany and Japan togethers during WW2.
            Google Korea 1950-53 US colonial War worst than Hiroshima !
            The US atrocities list for money is longer than a day without bread.

            Ironically, I do believe China, Iran, Hezbollah, Syria,
            and Russia saved the “Free-World” from US-NATO-Mossad.
            The last 30 Years I have seen Russia and China drastic improvements,
            balance by the US worsening !

            If you want to see where money should have been invested
            for Social and Environment improvements, Google this !
            North Korea in the Great Nuclear Game
            by Manlio Dinucci
            http://www.voltairenet.org/article197749.html

          • Freespirit

            I agree with the Principle of what you say, just not the Religious implications- I’m Atheist

        • Brother Ma

          Thats problem with SWIFT zionist u’ merrikan money system.smart countries like russia china iran are all moving away from that and that is the best way to make yourself independent of umerrika erc.
          Eu countries are almost all slaves apart from those that kept their own currencies.

          • Freespirit

            Correct, “Brother”

      • XRGRSF

        I agree that Russia can use European investments. However, I don’t see where Russia needs EU usury lending. Debt/Usury economics have been a death trap since biblical times; hence the “jubilee” every 7 years.

        • Florian N

          This is how the world was since money came up, before Jews and all the other conspiracy theories about the evil money.
          There has never been an system that worked in wich Debt/ursury wasn’t part of it.

        • AlexanderAmproz

          Russia and Europe have to be together,
          it’s the same family.

          EU is just a toy in the US-NATO hands !
          Seventy years of harassing political establishment and people of Europe
          http://www.voltairenet.org/article190171.html

          Anglo-American Money Owners Organized World War II
          http://www.voltairenet.org/article187508.html

      • AlexanderAmproz

        Russia has all what Europe miss,

        Europe has all what Russia miss !

        We are the same Family cut in two thanks of WW2
        engineered to destroy the Englo-US main competitors…

        “Anglo-American Money Owners Organized World War II”
        by Valentin Katasonov

        http://www.voltairenet.org/

        • Florian N

          Yes the world is ruled by some Zionist, JEWS and their money… great story, but it’s a story like the pyramids where build by aliens or something like that.

          • AlexanderAmproz

            What happened in Germany
            will happened in the US for the same reasons…

            If racist, racism will back fire,
            how long do 300 Millions Cow-Boys will agree to dance
            under 6 Millions Jews tune ?

          • Florian N

            They don’t live under Jew control. And thats the point so many do not understand on this side, there is no conspiracy about Jews want to rule the world… If they were as powerfull as everyone says (controling the hole western civilization they would already controll the world in like 1 state and not with all this opposition)
            This conspiracy therory is just an excuse for all the people who want to hate someone or had a bad life or no education.

          • AlexanderAmproz

            I didn’t need any conspiracy theories,
            and know more than you can believe.
            I am familiar with the finance world and International
            peoples, it’s my Disney world since decades…
            I am used to be a world citizen…

          • Florian N

            I do not like philosophers that much ^^ but I’m really interested in history and at that point, I can agree with you. We never learn our lessons. But that’s human life, we keep making the same mistakes again and again. That’s why it’s important to listen to both sides and to listen to facts to real facts, not just news. For example there are so many news that SAA crossed river (and it could be) but there is no real fact about it, so instead of crying and talking about this shit people should think first.
            In the Russians do not fight for SAA and US does not fight for SDF like every other side does not fight for someone else, they fight for their own interests. Both atomic powers(US,Russia) fight for their influence on the strategic resources in Syria and its strategic position, not for Assad and not for the people. Kurds do not hate all Arabs and not all Arabs hate Kurds.

          • AlexanderAmproz

            If you love History, have a look at the Swiss History.
            In 1515 after a Huge butchery with the French
            in Marignan, they decided to enlarge their Country
            only by mutual agreements.
            They are in Peace and cultivate it since then

            NB:Have a look to the Sunderdund Civil-War too…
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonderbund_War

          • Florian N

            They also received land after wars. In Swiss had been many “civil wars” because of religious and other disagreements. Also, they were involved in the beginning of the French revolutionary wars. Sure they were not engaged in the major conflicts of Europe, but that’s mostly because of their strategic unimportance to be conquered. They would also not be able to conquer the land by force because their land was low on population and had rich or big neighbors. So history is more diverse than just saying peace, no peace, good or bad.

          • AlexanderAmproz

            I beg your pardon,
            but your prejudgment and ignorance is
            a Colonized third World or US caricature.

            Every word of your comment is wrong,
            do you are a Filipino, from the US Midwest
            or the book-less desert and deep Africa ?

          • Florian N

            Why wrong? You are the one pre judging right now.
            I rely on facts and not on some weird conspiracy theories.
            So where am I wrong?

          • AlexanderAmproz

            A Cretinism conspiracy theories

            — In Swiss had been many “civil wars” because of religious and other disagreements
            — Mention ONE aside the Sunderbund with almost none victims

            — Also, they were involved in the beginning of the French revolutionary wars
            — ? ? ?

            — mostly because of their strategic unimportance to be conquered.
            — Which place is more important in-between
            North and South Europe aside the Brenner ?

            — because their land was low on population
            — What about the Mercenary “System”
            because over populated.
            During the XVII XVIII XIX centuries the Swiss immigration
            to the US was among the strongest,
            to the rest of the World too, even if it’s a tiny Country !

            NB: You have none knowledges and aren’t able
            to Google a minimum !
            Do you are a Filipino Stuupidity Competitor ?

          • Florian N

            Now I have a problem because I just know the German names for it. I hope I translate it rightly.
            In Swiss had been many “civil wars” because of religious and other disagreements
            — Mention ONE aside the Sunderbund with almost none victims
            —-The 1. and 2. Kappelerkriege (Kappeler wars?) 1529 and 1531 (I think the first one was without losses in human) also religious
            —-The 1. and 2. Villmergerkriege (Villmerger wars?) 1656 and 1712, also religious
            —-Helvetische Republik (Helvetian Republic) 1789-1803, political troubles.

            — Also, they were involved in the beginning of the French revolutionary wars
            — ? ? ?
            —- In the Helvetian Republic, they were forced to send troops to fight for the French. I think it was about 4000 men which fight for France in Italy in 1799. Also Swiss was kinda like a satellite state of France when Napoleon was in power.(If I remember right Swiss was incorporated in 1810)

            — mostly because of their strategic unimportance to be conquered.
            —-They are important for North-South movement. But why conquer a land with mountains and tiny valley streets? France moved over the Alps in the south so there was no need. Also in the world wars, a neutral Swiss was better than one to fight because of the terrain.

            — because their land was low on population
            — What about the Mercenary “System”
            because over populated.
            —-http://www.ecopop.ch/images/Grafiken/Bevoelkerung_Schweiz_seit_1300_140501-01.jpg
            It was overpopulated for a state in the middle of mountains.
            I personally do not know why so many Swiss people moved to the US, maybe they liked it there more because swiss was a farmer state.

            And sorry but no I’m not a Filipino. I am German.

          • AlexanderAmproz

            Gruss Gott,
            if not a Sau Preuss (lol)

            The Swiss move out because of starvation,
            with one or two bad harvest, 30% of the population will
            have die by starvation.
            60% of the Country lands isn’t livable and can’t be farmed
            Poorer humans are, more kids they have.
            Family with 15 kids were common in the Alps until WW1

            The 4’000 killed in the Tuileries were employed by the King,
            on a similar way than the today Vatican Swiss Guards !
            The Religions Wars were “light” if compared with
            Germany or France, just look at how many French Names
            are among the German Protestants

            It was too costly without winning guaranties for Hitler to invade mountains,
            just look at the US difficulties in the Afghanistan Mountains

            No need to invent, just have a look at History books,
            Historians are more qualified than I am

          • Florian N

            Like I said it is a mountain state and had been a former state before the bank economy moved in.
            There have been Swiss mercenaries also in later wars of Napoleon like I said Swiss was kinda vassal or satellite state.
            And yes these religious wars were “light” but you asked for more inner conflicts.
            I do not know what you want, you just mostly said the things I said.
            So and just to repeat me I am against this black and white good and bad thing that is going on here with the bad US and good Russia. Those states are more various. Also, there is no Jew behind everything bad in the world.
            At the moment I am asking myself if you even read my comments or just answered them.

          • AlexanderAmproz

            Napoleon never had Swiss mercenaries, but conscript’s !
            Bank is only about 10% of the Swiss economy.
            May I suggest you to go back to school or to read books,
            because you are a bit tiring simpleton.
            American in Asia and Europe were worst than Hitler.

            It’s look you have an Hollywood, Fox News, CNN, MSM Culture.

            American are good in America to help their atrocious
            Government to change and start to learn how to care of
            their own Peoples and Environment.
            The World is getting tired of such warmongers !

            The direct testimonies I got from what the Jews
            were doing to the Germans before WW1,
            it’s the same than I have seen done by the Chinese
            minority in the Philippines.
            Most Filipino-Chinese are as bad as Honkey’s are good !
            I never met an Austronesian’s who didn’t hate Chines’s

            Westerners tourist arrogance and superiority complex
            in Asia is shameful !

            The most racist toward Sephardi and Falashas, Beta Israel
            are the Ashkenazi, racism is a second nature by the
            European Jews and US Cow-Boys Culture !

          • Florian N

            God damn your crazy xD

    • Freespirit

      No advantage – just a TRAP

    • Akarnanas57

      Ask the Greeks, They know full well what it means.
      Back in the early ’40s when we were UNDER the 1st Occupation. We lent Germany Money to wage war in North Africa. Paid back 2 instalments and NOTHING SINCE. (they still owe Greece) Apart from Reparations.

      Now! under the 2nd Occupation.

      We borrow to pay the German Banks that lent Greece in order to Buy Arms (Leopards , Submarines that lean sideways, that is NOT UPRIGHT etc. etc. and Cars Mercedes BMWs etc. etc.) Also we lent Fraport (A German State Airport Company) to Buy OUR 14 AIRPORTS, at a ridiculous price, If they stop paying (Like last time ) the Greek State (That is the Greeks) will GUARANTEE the Loan.
      NOW did you get this charade???

      It is the very similar thing that Germany did to Greece back in the ’40s with the connivance of the Greek speaking Politicians.
      GOOD LUCK IN DEALING WITH THE HUN.

      • Solomon Krupacek

        “We borrow to pay the German Banks that lent Greece in order to Buy Arm”

        this was souvereigne decision of greece. dont cry! and this stupid thing you made 3 times in your modern history. the greeks borrowed money for not useful things. the greeks did no py taxes for daceds. now you can see your product.

        • Brother Ma

          Solomon.i give credit where credit is due. Didnt russia default on it loans as least twice in the last hundred years.also didnt russia also become bankrupt because it spent too much money on defence and nothing else.

          For what it is worth greece should have defaulted.problem is all its leaders of whatever party are eurocentric collaborators.

          • AlexanderAmproz

            Europe is a US/Zionist vassal,
            as well as the Saudi are for the Oil Wars
            around the Middle-East !

            The atrocious Greek Colonel’s Dictators
            or Turk’s Thief’s regime’s were also US “Puppets”

            Seventy years of harassing political establishment and people of Europe
            http://www.voltairenet.org/article190171.html

          • Cyriak Papasissis

            exactly , europhrenia is the mental disease they suffer from , eurovassal is their state of mind. In reality all of them are bribed , or corrupted by personal infusions of fiat money from the ECB. Democracy is dead in the EU , politicians of the periphery (Tsipras e.g.) or in the metropolis (Merkel e.g.) are sold like political whores to the Banksters’ Cabal. Europe is dead wood. Finished. The elites , Germany’ s included , are actors, their script is written by the financial criminals. They have very limited , or non-existent , sovereign rights , the ship was taken over by the pirates. Russia should not worry a damn bit about the attitudes of these sold-out monkeys , they are there to playact. They are not ”partners” in the real sense of the term.

          • Solomon Krupacek

            your words did not alter the fact, that greeks are guilty. and they were cowrds to make state bancrupcy.

          • AlexanderAmproz

            Agree with you,
            but the French will not forget the massive loan they did to the last Tsar,
            it was paid with peanuts only few years ago !

    • Arthur Smith

      Russia is denied the right to print enough money for itself, RCB’s loyalty is to IMF, not to the nation it’s supposed to serve. Putin did nothing to change this situation.
      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_school_of_economics

      • XRGRSF

        Hopefully that will be changed in the not to distant future. Otherwise, it can only be viewed as treason.

  • AlexanderAmproz

    Russia is in Europe and is part of Europe since ever
    to Oural and Caucasus !

    America like it or not, It’s Culturally a member of the European family
    since “ever”, it’s a fact !

    • Arthur Smith

      Europe is a bastard of Roman Empire, Russia is a widow of Byzanthium.

      • AlexanderAmproz

        Byzance was on of Europe main Capital during Milleniums !

  • hhabana

    Money is borrowed by entrepreneurs to fuel growth. This is the way the world works. Now there is a balance to all of this. It is critical that China become equal to US in borrowing capacity, a source to challenge the established powers.

    • Arthur Smith

      Well, unlike the rest of the world russian enterpreneurs aren’t allowed to take credits in native currency, because colonies don’t have rights to print money for themselves.