Erdogan Had Nothing To Gain From Murder of Russian Ambassador To Ankara

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Erdogan Had Nothing To Gain From Murder of Russian Ambassador To Ankara

A screenshot from the Youtube video

Written by TheSaker; Originally appeared at his blog

Okay, so tonight we have the name of the assassin, it is Mevlut Mert Aydintas, a 22 year old policeman who had been recently fired following the anti-Gulenist crackdown of Erdogan against the forces which had attempted to overthrow him recently. We also have a very useful video of the murder.

That video of the attack also shows something very important: the only shots fired are those fired by the assassin.  See for yourself:

What this means is one of two things:

Version 1: there was nobody in charge of security at this exhibition

Version 2: the room where this murder happened was considered ‘safe/sterile’ because it was inside an outer security perimeter which we don’t see in this video.

I find version 2 far more likely.  That would also explain why and how Mevlut Mert Aydintas so easily got it: he simply flashed his police ID and was let through.

When such an event occurs it is also important to ask cui bono – whom does it benefit?

Erdogan? No.

I see absolutely no imaginable reason why Erdogan would want the Russian Ambassador murdered in Ankara, but I can easily imagine a long list of reasons why he would not want that to happen at all.  Some will correctly say that the fall of Aleppo is a humiliating defeat for Turkey and Erdogan, and I agree.  But I would remind everybody that Erdogan clearly had a deal going with the Russians and the Iranians when he moved his forces across the border and occupied northern Syria.  There is *no way* he would have risked such a move against the will of Moscow and Tehran.  So what was this deal?  We will probably never know, but it clearly included a provision which limited Turkey’s actions to a narrow strip in the north.  If that hypothesis is correct, then Aleppo would have to be considered outside the “Turkish sphere of interest” in Syria, at least by the tripartite Turkish-Iranian-Russian understanding.  Did Erdogan know that Aleppo would fall and would fall so fast?  Probably not.  It appears that Erdogan got outmaneuvered by the Russians and the Iranians.  But he most definitely had better options to retaliate against the liberation of Aleppo than to have the Russian Ambassador murdered in Ankara.  The fact is that the Turks did precious little when Aleppo was liberated, at most they helped the Russian evacuate part of the “good terrorists”.

Even if Erdogan is a lunatic, he is smart enough to understand that if he has the Russian Ambassador murdered in Ankara NATO will do nothing to protect him and that the Russians can fire a cruise missile right into his bedroom window.  Erdogan might be crazy, but he is clearly not *that* crazy.

Finally, let’s remember the disastrous consequences for Turkey following the shooting down of the Russian SU-24 and the fact that, by numerous corroborated accounts, the Russian intelligences services saved Erdogan, probably literally, by warning him of the coup against him.

So, for all these reasons, Erdogan is not on my current list of suspects.  Never say never, new facts might come to light, especially with a maniac like Erdogan, but right now I will assume that he has nothing to do with what happened.

Daesh & Co?  Maybe.

Well, it is rather obvious that the Daesh & Co. had an extremely long list of reasons to want to kill a high profile Russian official.  So yes, they sure had the motive.  Considering how successful radical Islamist extremists have been at penetrating the Turkish deep (and not so deep) state, Daesh and Co. also had the means.  As for the opportunity, the video above clearly shows that not only did Mevlut Mert Aydintas have the time to shoot the Russian Ambassador many times (I counted 9 shots), but after that he still had the time to just stand there and scream all sorts of slogans about Syria, Aleppo and God.  While we don’t know all the details yet, this is already very strong evidence that security at this event was dismal.

Gulen, the CIA, Obama & Co?  Maybe.

Yes, they are also on my list of suspects.  The Gulenists have nothing to lose, the CIA has gone crazy with anger and fear at the election of Trump, and the Obama Administration is full of angry, offended, deeply vindicative and otherwise plain nasty characters who would love to trigger a new crisis between Russia and Turkey or make the Russian pay in some way for humiliating the AngloZionist Empire in Aleppo.  Keep in mind that this is exactly how the CIA always kills foreign dignitaries: by subcontracting the murder to a local fanatic so as to preserve what they call “plausible deniability”.

During the Cold War the Soviets and the Americans had an unwritten understanding that “we don’t kill each other”.  It was never formally mentioned or otherwise acknowledged, but I assure you that it was real: neither side wanted an open ended escalation of assassinations and counter-assassinations.  But today’s CIA is a pathetic joke compared to the CIA of the Cold War, and with hodge-podge of mediocre dimwits now in the Executive branch I would not put it past some idiot in Langley to approve of the murder of a Russian Ambassador.  Besides, if the Americans were crazy and reckless enough to attempt to overthrow Erdogan, why would they not try to murder a Russian Ambassador?

What about the lone gunman hypothesis?

Well, it is impossible to prove a negative. Mevlut Mert Aydintas did lose his job in a recent purge, he did have police credentials and his actions on the video seem to be a textbook example of the kind of fanatical behavior a lone nutcase would display.  So yes, it is possible that Mevlut Mert Aydintas acted alone.  After all, all he needed was a gun and a police ID.  Let’s see what the Turks, and the Russians, find out about him.  Still, I doubt it.  That kind of personality is usually identified by state sponsoring terrorism and then activated when needed.  My gut tells me that he did not just act alone.  Somebody probably used Mevlut Mert Aydintas.

Painful questions

Here I really hope that I am wrong, but if I want to be honest I have to admit that I am completely unable to find an excuse of the lax security around Ambassador Andrey Karlov.  And I am not referring to the Turks here, I am referring to the Russian security services.  Here is why.

Even if we assume that the Turks had told the Russians that they had established a ‘safe/sterile’ perimeter around the exhibit and that the general public would not be let in, the footage shows what appears to be only a few guests, there is no excuse for the Russian not to have at least one bodyguard in the immediate proximity to the Ambassador.  Turkey is not only a country at war, but Russia is a party to that war, the Takfiris have made a very long list of threats against Russia and, finally, Turkey is a country which has suffered from terrorism for years and which has just suffered a bloody attempted coup.  In a country like that a top official like an Ambassador should have been protected by an entire group of bodyguards, but in this case there was clearly nobody.  Oh sure, the Russian can blame the Turks for having set up a crappy perimeter, but as professionals they should know that the Turks are already having extreme difficulties in dealing with their own terrorists and that following the massive purges the security services are in a state of chaos.  Would one bodyguard have made a difference?

Yes, possibly.  Probably in fact.

From the video it appears that Mevlut Mert Aydintas was standing about 5 meter behind Ambassador Karlov when he opened fire.  Apparently, not a single of the shots hit the Ambassador’s head.  If Ambassador Karlov had been wearing a flack jacket or any other type of body armor he would have probably survived that first volley of bullets (unless one hit the cervicals).  One single bodyguard could then have easily killed Mevlut Mert Aydintas and evacuated the ambassador to safety.  Evidently Karlov was not wearing any kind of body armor that day.  Why?  He did not have a single bodyguard next to him.  Why?  No Russian voices are heard on the video, so there appears to have been no Russian security anywhere near the ambassador.  Why?

Normally, ambassadors are a very easy target.  Everybody knows them, their routine is public and, contrary to what many seem to think, most of them have no security detail.  I am absolutely amazed that more ambassadors are not killed regularly.  In high risk countries, however, ambassadors are normally protected, especially ambassadors representing countries involved in a war or who are likely targets of terrorist attacks.  True, as a rule, the Russians, including diplomats, tend to be more brave/reckless (pick the term) than their western counterparts: they don’t scare easy and they like to show that they are not afraid.  But that kind of attitude needs to be kept in check by professionals.

Frankly, it makes me angry to see how many Russians have been killed by that lax attitude towards personal risk and security.  Yes, it is very noble to be courageous, but to die killed by a manic is also plain dumb.  I would feel much better if Russian officials and politicians would be a little less courageous and a little more careful.  Because what happened today begs the question: who will it be the next time?

Conclusions

What happened today is a tragedy made twice as painful by the fact that it could probably have been avoided.  The Turkish security services will probably arrest overnight pretty much anybody and everybody Mevlut Mert Aydintas has ever met, and they will get lots of confessions.  I am pretty sure that they will share a lot of that data with the Russians, if only to show how sorry they are.  Alas, both the Turks and the Russians have an long tradition of secrecy and we might never find out who, if anybody, really was behind Mevlut Mert Aydintas.

The only thing I am sure of is that Putin will do nothing harsh regardless of who is behind this murder.  If it is the Takfiris, then the people involved will die in the next couple of years.  If the CIA is involved, however, the Russians will be much more careful and might chose to act in a very different way, possibly through the next Administration.  The murder of Ambassador Karlov will not succeed in derailing the Russian and Iranian efforts at getting some kind of a regional solution to the war in Syria, nor will it change the Russian determination to prevent the AngloZionst Empire of turning Syrian into yet another Takfiristan.

As for Russia and Turkey, as long as Erdogan remains in power they will continue to try to collaborate against the odds and in spite of deep and fundamental differences.  Neither Russia nor Turkey, which have fought each other in twelve wars, have any other option.

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  • hvaiallverden

    We have had bombing in Turkien done by lord knows whom, but the indications of both false flags and direct attach are there, but this bombings are way to intermingled to be clear, and in this bombings, both the Gov and the “terror” orgs, benefits from it since it make sure the conflict prolongs indefinitely.

    And we cant trust erDOGan for an split second.
    The present event is in the same category, this may be an Turkish inside job as well as what I believe, an CIA/Mossad asset since this so called Gulenists are Western backed and Saudi financed terror orgs, take your pick.
    All this Allah nonsense is their hal mark of false flags, somehow that is whats highlighted, weirdly anof, and not anything else apart from the Aleppo drivel.
    This is obviously done for the Yankeestans, and Europeans, the dumbest f…. that walks on this planet, thats what I think happened, and time is short, just an month away, so things escalate, thats why I think this is infact an Turkish job, where the timing is so that the blame game will be difficult unless one is willing to push it at certain directions aka propaganda.

    To exclude ErDOGan is naive, since lunatics lives in their own reality like the Impisses in the banana republic UssA.
    I think this is done by the Turks along with the Yankees, period.
    The erDOGan and the Jooos are knee deep in blood from before, so, logically the next question is

    Cue Bono, yup.

    peace

  • Daniel Martin

    The most important thing to do right now, is not to react emotionally and draw any hastened conclusions, about this hideous terrorist act. The best and most important thing to do is to keep calm, and let the professionals do a proper investigation, and only when all the facts have been established, first then Russia should start planning an appropriate response, to this terrorist act and those who sponsored it.

    • Shibumi

      Any professional investigation can be manipulated in the darkness from top to bottom !

  • Shibumi

    For once he is not accusing the Kurds for all his misdeeds !!

  • S600

    Following are immediate questions regarding the incident:

    1- Why in a “hot” zone MFA Russia did not applied or provided special security for late Diplomat considering he was a key figure in recent Turk/Russian diplomacy regarding Aleppo?
    2- Why Turks on one hand are trying to solve the Syrians issue with Russians but same time letting hostile crowds gather and protest in front of Russian installations.
    3- Why Turks are claiming Jihad and Syrian conquest in public when they are same time trying to be peace makers.
    4- While silencing everything related to opposition or Kurds they have not tried to silence the social media anti Russian campaigns of Jihadis originating from Turkey.
    5- Killer could have been influenced by any one from Fanatics to western “concerned” agencies..
    6- Why even after Russian ambassador assassination the so called Syrian opposition groups have not been detained in Turkey?

    Regarding if Erdogan have nothing to gain from the assassination you just have to go back in history and look at Moscow apartment bombings how that played out or how the post 9/11 incidents are benefitting unlikely parties.

    • 888mladen .

      Question1 Because human life has always been cheep for RU ruling clique. Mere expendable.

      Question 3 Because of Moslem Brotherhood.

      Question 4 See question 3.

      • John Whitehot

        answer 1 – by the same measure, then human life value has always been ZERO for the zionists and their friends @CIA – at least, the lives of christians and muslims.

  • 888mladen .

    You would think so. Wouldn’t you. However they didn’t ask for your opinion. By the way what jihadi monsters had to gain by colossal crimes they have committed? 72 virgins? RU has been mean especially in this case. Whatch this https://youtu.be/sVlBZml7k_U

  • Barry

    You are pretty much spot on and coherent and then ‘AngloZionst Empire.’
    Do you think that Rothschild is sitting in London, running a global empire? Where the hell did that come from? Why the lunacy with an otherwise pretty well reasoned article?

  • 888mladen .
  • Brad Isherwood

    https://consortiumnews.com/2015/12/16/on-the-trail-of-turkeys-terrorist-grey-wolves-2/

    Grey wolves are linked to NATO Gladio….
    CIA connection with Grey Wolves.
    So….a possibility.
    Question is….Will Turk investigations give misleading results and protect the True Organizers?

    • 888mladen .

      Thank you. You must have gotten that from the book I’ve posted recently on SouthFront. Yes they are and Vatican as well. Do you remember how pope Frances gave order to EU member states to receive “Syrian refugees” last year and today nobody remembers it nor blames him only Angela?

  • Bob

    What about Saudi’s? They have been the cash cow financing Syrian militants and foreign jihadists the whole time. Possibly responsible as an irrational outburst of payback for the routing of Saudi backed Al Nusra and Al Zinki affiliates in east Aleppo? The Saudi intelligence service has already proven its immaturity in the Yemen conflict, where they regularly and arbitrarily target civilians and infrastructure in displays of punitive and petulant frustration.