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On October 26, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UAF) attacked an artillery crew of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) militia using the Turkish-made UAV Bayraktar TB2. As a result one soldier was killed and a new stage of active hostilities in the east of Ukraine was outlined.
According to the Ukrainian officials, the order to use the UAV was given by the UAF commander, Lieutenant General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, in response to barrage from the DPR militia. Apparently, the deployment of UAVs by the Ukrainian side will become a regular practice from now on, especially, because the DPR and LPR forces have no means to counter them.
The attack was carried out with the high-precision MAM-L short-range munition at its effective range of 13 km. Alarmingly, a newer MAM-T model of munition may be also used against the DPR militia in the coming future, enabling the UAF to attack the territories without crossing the front line.
On the same day, the Ukrainian army reportedly advanced and took control over the village of Staromaryevka, located in the “gray” zone (buffer zone). On October 27, there were reports that the village had been recaptured by the militia, however, this statement was later denied, and as for today, without any confirmation, DPR military correspondents proclaimed once again their control over the village.
The battle ensued in the area, and the neighboring villages of Novomarievka and Telmanovo were also under fire. The Ukrainian armed forces used 122-mm artillery and 82- and 120-mm mortars. Numerous injuries and damages were recorded. In Telmanovo 12 transformer substations were destroyed, a hospital, a school, a boiler house, and over 350 civilians were left without electricity. The local water utility was also hit by the one of the shells.
On October 28, in the DPR direction, the village of Yakovlevka in the Yasinovatskiy district and the town of Dokuchaievsk came under fire by 120 mm mortars and grenade launchers.
In the LPR, the settlements of Pryshyb, Smeloe, and Golubivske were fired on with 120 mm mortars, grenade launchers and small arms from the Ukrainian side, and at least one Ukrainian truck near Kryakivka was destroyed by crossfire of the militia.
According to the latest reports, trains loaded with hundreds of tanks and other military equipment were spotted heading towards the Ukrainian border on October 28th in Russia. Apparently, the Russian side is concentrating its forces near the Ukrainian border in order to prevent any provocations and aggression.
The attempts to peacefully resolve the conflict in Donbas within the framework of the Minsk agreements have failed. From now on, the situation will be aggravated by the constant presence of Turkish drones launched through the network of repeaters. This network, deployed under the protection of Ukrainian air defense, will embrace the territory within a radius of 300 km. Even if the militia forces find out a way to take down UAVs, the Ukrainian side will have a suitable excuse for speculation in case of a drone being destroyed over Ukrainian territory, because of the long range of fire of the latter.
Ukraine is currently drawing Russia into hostilities under the terms favorable to Ukraine and its Western handlers. The Kiev regime pursues the following aims: to destabilize the overall situation near Russia’s western borders and to distract the attention of Ukrainian citizens from the problems associated with the energy crisis on the eve of a cold winter.
The current developments have an extremely troubling context. Many European and American politicians make aggressive claims to Russia, and Russian official discourse also drifts towards a military solution to the conflict.
Poland, as a NATO member, is strengthening its garrisons on the border with Belarus, and the Ukrainian army is being put on alert. Now any high-profile incident in the de-escalation zone, especially in case of human casualties, would lead to a full-scale military conflict.
The following short-term consequences could be expected. A major assault by the Ukrainian army is capable of suppressing the resistance of the DPR and LPR militias. Russia may be forced to interfere in the conflict in order to prevent mass civilian casualties in Donbass and the emergence of refugees flow. NATO would perceive this as a Russian aggression. Poland would start invading the territory of Belarus; therefore, the zone of military actions would extend from the Sea of Azov to the Baltic Sea.
Any inquisitive mind wonders why this conflict is still going on, and why it would be allowed to instigate almost the whole Eastern Europe. However, it should be taken into account that no one cares about the lives and interests of the European nations, including the Ukrainians. The only winners in the war in Ukraine are the Euro-Atlantic elites and even China as they are all interested in expanding their influence on Russia weakened by military conflicts and taking control over its natural resources. In its turn, Europe would only get a huge zone of instability near its eastern borders in case of any scenarios, whether Russia wins or loses the upcoming conflict. Regardless of where the new state borders will lay, whether by the Dnieper or the Don Rivers.
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