Donbass; Calm before the storm?

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In early September, the threat of a renewed large-scale fighting in Ukraine has decreased. All sighed with relief, but the calm does have worries at some points.

Donbass; Calm before the storm?

This article originally appeared at Topwar, translated by John exclusively for SouthFront

The aggressive rhetoric from the Bandera of Kiev against Donbass and Russia is in no way diminished. But the efforts of the new military doctrine by the American viceroy Poroshenko, which declared Russia as an enemy, added insanity, saying about a possible march on Moscow, walking in the footsteps of Hitler. Now, in case of resumption of hostilities in the Donbass, the Bandera regime paved the way for the Russian declaration of war.

Absurd? However, with autumn just started, strategically it is the last chance for the US to ignite a major war in the Ukraine, to engage her in Europe and Russia.  Or at least to inflict maximum damage to Russia. The Ukraine “wehrmacht” grouped and mobilezed, and stood in the steppe under the donbass. During the winter it is definitely a plan that will not survive. The strategy of “war to the last Ukrainian” Washington must somehow dodge and throw it in the fight in the near future. There is a calm install on negotiations on gas, while the gas from Kiev is not enough to pass the winter, not to mention the security of transit money to Europe for the purchase gas over there. It only takes 1 billion Dollar, but Kiev is not being able to find that kind of money anywhere. Banks have promised to consider this issue on Septermber 30. In general this is a scandal: The Junta Minister of Energy Demchishin asked Gazprom out of despair, to pump gas in advance into Ukraine for a maximum of one billion dollar. Of course he received a refusal. The European friends are so fond of it’s new associate member that they – the Junta – asked them to give the money to Moscow! Gazprom rejected the question to receive gas at substantial discounts, and would only deliver for the average European price for gas. It seems that the Junta tried to blackmail the European gas transit for both Russia and Europe for 1 billion Dollar, but was faced with imperturbable calm on both sides, because the money is not given anywhere else. More on that, it is considerably worse than last year, regarding the situation to supply coal to the power stations in Ukraine, after the last winter’s energy just “do not lay down”, it requires urgently for the warehouses to start the order of 1.000.000 tons of coal, but it needs to be bought too. However, there has not been heared anything about a signed coal contract that is be taken seriously. Deliveries of coal from the Donbass are limited to the nearby thermal power plant which works for the Donbass. Large-scale delivery of the Donetsk coal is impossible for political reasons: the Junta declared a blockade. Ukrainian Energy has said that it is necessary to work with the “wheels”… It seems that the Junta is not going to be heated in the winter season, and at the same time decided to disrupt the European Gas Transit. And no one cares! Unlike last year, there are no negotiations on gas like this was said last August, Yatsenyuk just did not occur. Instead, everyone is waiting for the October electoral acute, not only in the Donbass, but throughout Ukraine. From 15 to 22 September, the UN General Assembly will be held in New York. Russian president Vladimir Putin will address the gathering of heads of states. Putin’s speech at the UN can cause a heavy blow to the propaganda picture of the world, drawn by the Western “global media” and the US State Department has an objective interest in the fact that Putin’s speech to the world will not take place. Absurd? All things are possible when the US State Department policy carried out a variety  of “psaki”, speaking nonsense and absurd things to justify the expansion of Washington worldwide… Blow up the steady calm can bemade by a major provocation, such as the destruction of a “malaysian Boeing” or “Golf of Tonkin incident”, only this time in the Black Sea, or something else out of the tube of former US Secretary of State Colin Powell. The US has always resorted to provocation when they want to attack someone, or arrange the next “democratic” war somewhere. In this situation, the NATO fleet is conducting large-scale exercises from 7 to 12 september in the Black Sea near Odessa. President Putin ordered to carry out checkouts of the Central Military District, from 7 to 12 september, with the notification to know all foreign military attaches exactly. And that in fact the White House “frankly” admitted, through its spokesperson, did not know about the conduc of the militairy parade of China on September 3. It would be desirable, of course, to hope for the best, but it is necessary to prepare for the worse: the possibility of a large American provocation in Ukraine or Black Sea Fleet from NATO in September this year.

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