Deir Ezzor Attack Enables The “Salafist Principality” As Foreseen In The 2012 DIA Analysis

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eastsysep2016

Originally appeared at MoonOfAlabama

Two recent attacks against the Syrian Arab Army in east-Syria point to a U.S. plan to eliminate all Syrian government presence east of Palmyra. This would enable the U.S. and its allies to create “Sunni entity” in east-Syria and west-Iraq which would be a permanent thorn in side of Syria and its allies.

A 2012 analysis by the Defense Intelligence Agency said:

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR UNDECLARED SALAFIST PRINCIPALITY IN EASTERN SYRIA (HASAKA AND DER ZOR), AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SUPPORTING POWERS TO THE OPPOSITION WANT, IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE SYRIAN REGIME …

Note that the described plan mentions exactly two cities – Hasakah and Deir Ezzor.

On August 18 Kurdish YPK units suddenly attacked Syrian government positions in the center of Hasakah in the north-east of Syria. Before this incident the relations between the two entities had been decent despite some earlier, small clashes. The attacking Kurds were under advice from U.S. special operators. When the Syrian air force intervened the U.S. threatened to down its planes. The Syrian forces had to eventually retreat from populated areas in Hasakah and are now confined to an airport next to the city. They are cut of from supplies and will eventually have to give up.

(For the Kurds these attacks proved to be a political catastrophe. Not only did they lose all support from the Syrian government and Russian side, but Turkey used these clashes to justify its invasion into Syria. This ended the Kurdish national dream of a continues area from Iraq to the Mediterranean.)

On Saturday U.S. airplanes attacked the most important Syrian government position in Deir Ezzor. Nearly a hundred Syrian soldiers were killed and most of the heavy equipment the Deir Ezzor garrison had left was destroyed. Immediately after the attack fighters of the Islamic State occupied the bombed out government positions. These Islamic States fighters now own the heights above the Deir Ezzor airport. A day later the Islamic State shot down a Syrian government plane near Deir Ezzor.

The city and its 150,000+ inhabitants are surrounded by the Islamic State. They had been supplied from Damascus by nightly flights to the airport. As the Islamic State now has fire-control over the airport as well as anti-air weapons those supply flights are no longer possible. The U.S. air attack practically closed down the Syrian government ability to supply the city. If this situation continues the city will fall to the Islamic State.

The U.S. plan is to eventually take Raqqa by using Turkish or Kurdish proxies. It also plans to let the Iraqi army retake Mosul in Iraq. The only major city in Islamic State territory left between those two is Deir Ezzor. Should IS be able to take it away from the isolated Syrian army garrison it has at least a decent base to survive. (Conveniently there are also rich oil wells nearby.) No one, but the hampered Syrian state, would have an immediate interest to remove it from there.

North of that entity would be a Kurdish area with no ambition to expand south. North-west of the Deir Ezzor entity would be the friendly Turkish controlled “Safe Zone” that Erdogan plans to create.

The two recent moves by U.S. forces in east-Syria are consistent with the plan for a “Sunni entity” or “Salafist principality” described in the 2012 DIA document. Such an entity blocks the land connection of the “Shia crescent” which connects Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. This is the “isolation” of Syria foreseen in the DIA analysis. A “Sunni entity” in east-Syria also provides a path for the gas pipeline from Qatar via Turkey to Europe. The Syrian government had rejected the construction of such a line which goes against the fundamental interests of its ally Russia.

At first glance this U.S. policy seems to be shortsighted, There is no way the envisioned “Sunni entity” would ever become stable. Instead it would continue to be a source of terrorism which would hit far beyond the borders of Syria and the surrounding states. But it is exactly the instability of this construct that will allow for further U.S. presence in the area.  A source of insecurity that can be activated, or shut down, whenever convenient.

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  • Catfish

    I hadn’t really looked at the attacks in the interests of a salafist principality but it makes perfect sense. Syria needs to try and get the siege lifted from deir ezzor asap. Even if it means having to pull some resources from elsewhere temporarily.If the us can’t follow through with regime change and neocolonize Syria completely, then the plan this article speaks of is probably the next option for them.

    • Jens Holm

      Well. Normally I dont laugh around dead ones. But I`ll jump up and down if ISIS-Slashing -Daesh takes Der El Zor. Funny some other then You will let russians jump down in minefields and take that top. ISIS has minefiels even in their pockets.

  • On Saturday U.S. airplanes attacked the most important Syrian government position in Deir Ezzor.

    Oops. Sorry about that.

    Nearly a hundred Syrian soldiers were killed and most of the heavy equipment the Deir Ezzor garrison had left was destroyed. Immediately after the attack fighters of the Islamic State occupied the bombed out government positions. These Islamic States fighters now own the heights above the Deir Ezzor airport. A day later the Islamic State shot down a Syrian government plane near Deir Ezzor.

    The city and its 150,000+ inhabitants are surrounded by the Islamic State. They had been supplied from Damascus by nightly flights to the airport. As the Islamic State now has fire-control over the airport as well as anti-air weapons those supply flights are no longer possible. The U.S. air attack practically closed down the Syrian government ability to supply the city. If this situation continues the city will fall to the Islamic State.

    Might I suggest a Russian airborne assault to retake the heights?

    It’s going to be an absolute age, if ever, before Turkish ground forces get to Deir Ezzor, after stopping off en route to take Raqqa, so I suggest a Russia gets a rescue mission together to secure the heights and restore the supply line.

    Whether Assad wants to offer Deir Ezzor to the moderate opposition as a swap in peace / partition talks is another matter but meantime no-one in the West wants to see ISIS take another city. So best of luck with that.

  • I think the best hope of peace is some kind of partition of Iraq and Syria, with one or two “Sunni-friendly” but secular, not Salafist, state(s), along the lines of Turkey, perhaps with Turkish troops with an international mandate to secure or a status of forces agreement with the Syrian moderates to ensure the new state remains democratic and not a thorn for further jihadi trouble-making in the region.

    My strategy is to defeat ISIS and to regime-change their Salafist state sponsors.

    STRATEGY TO DEFEAT ISIS
    http://supremealliedcondista.newsvine.com/_news/2015/08/13/33784668-strategy-to-defeat-isis

    1) Overall strategy – the West needs to apply the Bush Doctrine to all state-sponsors of terrorism – Saudi Arabia & other Gulf monarchies, Pakistan, Yemen, Egypt, Sudan, Iran and other dictator states – regime change them all.

    2) Use stand off techniques more robustly – such as seizing control over state-sponsor-of-terrorism satellite-TV broadcasting (often supplied to Arab and North African state broadcasters by European satellite TV companies) and turning that propaganda weapon around and using it to promote democratic revolution through-out the region.

    3) Impose the West as sole agents for all oil tanker export sales out of the Gulf. Seize all oil tankers exporting oil and sell the oil, depriving regimes of oil profits.

    4) Now once you have an overall strategy in place, then you can look at specific military actions. Bombing prestige regime targets or threatening to if Al Baghdadi’s head is not on a spike within 48 hours.

    5) Partition Iraq & Syria. Iraq looks like it has to go three ways – Shia, Sunni & Kurds. If the 3 new states all want to join up together in an Iraq confederacy or union of some kind of their own free will, that’s fine too.

    6) Establish Western military bases in Iraq & Syria for training up the local armies. Better if we can supply them by sea or air rather than by long land routes which can have supply routes attacked by road side bombs and ambushes.

    For implementation I would trust only Condi and myself to oversee this strategy through to victory but I am sure I could find a place for Russia in my strategy if the Kremlin is interested in cooperating with the West to eliminate the jihadi terrorist threat once and for all?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f9d8355983a3a89bc0f744c12bd9627bc4cababb792e673bfceb50d3bedb1661.jpg

    • Jens Holm

      Far out.Kurds are not meat for that.

      And who should be leaders of those moreor less ISIS sunnis.

  • The U.S. plan is to eventually take Raqqa by using Turkish or Kurdish proxies.

    Yup that seems to be the way of it right now. I’m certainly arguing for putting Turkish forces under supranational control – either under Operation Inherent Resolve, as with the YPG/SDF, or my preference would be to put the Turkish forces under NATO command, using the elite NATO Rapid Deployable Corps – Turkey.

    If my suggestion to use a NATO corps were to be adopted, it wouldn’t be U.S. “proxy” forces.

    NATO isn’t a US proxy organisation. It is a democratically run organisation, with the US in the lead role, admittedly.

    Anyway, no word on NATO getting involved officially, though the NATO Secretary General went to Ankara recently to offer NATO’s best wishes for the Turks “Operations Euphrates Shield”.

    I want to use NATO because they will be able to take ground about 100 times faster than Erdogan commanding anything can.

    I want to wrap this war on terrorism up as soon as possible but dithering seems to be the West’s way these days, ever since Condi left power sadly.

    TAKE RAQQA BATTLEPLAN 2016
    http://supremealliedcondista.newsvine.com/_news/2016/09/08/36062818-take-raqqa-battleplan-2016

    Signal to anti-ISIS forces from Supreme Allied Condista.

    TAKE AL-BAB
    TAKE RAQQA AS PER BATTLEPLAN

    Supreme Allied Condista urges –

    NATO support for Operation Euphrates Shield, while cautioning President Erdogan to temper his rhetoric against our brave and trusted allies, the Kurdish YPG and Syrian Democratic Forces.

    That NATO does now rapidly deploy the NATO Rapid Deployable Corps Turkey (NRDC-T) in support of Operation Euphrates Shield to secure al-Bab for the anti-ISIS coalition, with a view to a NRDC-T armoured ground attack west of the Euphrates to attack and liberate Raqqa from the south, coordinating with our YPG-SDF comrades attacking ISIS forces from Kurdish-held territory east of the Euphrates moving southwards towards Raqqa.

    Congratulations to the Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve for the great success of the anti-ISIS air warfare campaign which has broken the back of the enemy ISIS who are consequently very vulnerable to our ground forces.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4d171cccf437e9734d49202bb83bff3753411abea499e34866039904de7ced73.jpg

  • john mason

    Syrian Government is NOT a regime, that is, it is NOT an authoritarian government. Time that the media uses the correct terminology.