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The United Nations Security Council issued a unanimous statement in an attempt to avoid the incoming catastrophe in Ethiopia.
The Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), the Oromo Liberation Front (OLA) and seven other opposition political and armed groups are dead set on storming the capital and overthrowing the central government.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, feeling the sense of impending doom is calling on the military, as well as the entire population to fight against the incoming adversary.
On November 7th, tens of thousands of Ethiopians rallied in Addis Ababa to support the Prime Minister, and many denounced the United States which simply called for a ceasefire alongside the other UNSC members.
The Nobel Peace Prize-winning Ahmed is presenting the fight as an existential one – and it is precisely that. A large-scale confrontation between the sides could quite possibly lead to disintegration of the entire country, similarly to how Eritrea split from Ethiopia years ago.
This time, however, it will shatter into many regions in which one ethnic group will be the majority and fight against the others.
A fight seems all but inevitable, and it is unknown how the Tigrayan forces and their allies would potentially agree to any form of ceasefire. The offer for a truce should come with a massive incentive – such as allowing the Tigray region to operate without the presence of any Federal government, Amhara regional state and Eritrean troops.
Still, in the days leading up to November 8th, the Tigrayan forces are marching on the capital, with little to stand in their way.
After capturing the strategic towns of Dessie and Kombolcha, the Tigrayans continued moving south, as well as to the west, to secure a wider corridor for their potential reinforcements.
Finally, on November 6th, the TDF captured upper and lower Dawunt woreda, and are just a few days away from besieging Addis Ababa.
Meanwhile, the central government is desperate, calling on all veterans to rejoin the army, in addition to all citizens to immediately enlist and pick up a weapon to fight against the Tigrayan adversary.
Both sides continue spewing rhetoric increasingly filled with hate of their adversary, and it seems that cataclysm is not too far off the horizon.
Even as official spokesmen continue to speak ‘tough’ and either deny recent strategic losses on the battlefield or refuse to comment, the Federal government is making frantic preparations for a last-ditch defense of the seat of government in Addis Ababa.
It is evident that Prime Minister Ahmed’s forces are not enough, but it is also not an assured victory for the Tigrayans once they besiege the city. It is unlikely that the fight will end quickly, and there is no certainty in who the victor will be when the ashes settle.