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COVID-19 In Italy. A Critical Look At Death Toll Numbers


COVID-19 In Italy. A Critical Look At Death Toll Numbers

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Italy remains the main hot point of the COVID-19 outbreak in Europe with 97,689 confirmed cases and 10,779 deaths as of March 30 morning. According to these numbers, every 10th registered COVID-19 number dies from the desease. This situation as well as mistakes in the government’s response to the outbreak amid the mainstream media hysteria led to the state of panic in the country. However, some sources and reports question the reliability of the provided numbers. To get an alternative, non-mainstream, look at the situation we suggest you two articles published by off-Guardian.org earlier in March:

Italy: Only 12% of “Covid19 deaths” list Covid19 as cause (source):

The way Italy registers deaths explains their increased coronavirus case/fatality ratio, according to one expert and a report from Italy’s National Institute of Health (ISS).

Citing this report (in English here), Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health said:

The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus […] On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,”

This has been reported widely, it was even in The Telegraph, and yet no one seems to be engaging with it.

The president of the Italian Civil Protection Service actually went out of his way to remind people of the nature of Italy’s fatality figures in a morning briefing on 20/03:

I want you to remember these people died WITH the coronavirus and not FROM the coronavirus”

What does this actually mean?

It means that the Italian death toll figures could have been artificially inflated by up to 88%. If true, this would mean the total number of Italians who have actually died of Covid19 could be as low as ~700. Which would bring Italy, currently a statistical outlier in terms of Covid19 fatalities, well in line with the rest of the world.

It means thousands of deaths currently widely attributed to Covid19, and being used to justify the introduction of measures equating to medical martial law, may not have died of covid19 at all but of their serious chronic co-morbidity (cancer, heart disease etc.).

This statistic is not a secret, or in any way controversial, it was in The Telegraph after all, but people seem to be ignoring it, or reading around it, or perhaps simply not understanding it.

We reported on these statistics a few days ago, and many people who should know better simply reacted to the headline without either reading the actual article or understanding the statistics.

Given the bill that is having its second reading in the UK parliament today, it is important this information is spread widely and quickly.

This information was compiled with the assistance of the Swiss Propaganda Research group, we once again recommend everybody read their site. They are a must-read, a must-follow and a must-share. It is the best resource for Covid19 information on the internet.

ISS Report: 99% of Covid19 Deaths had Pre-existing Serious Illness (source):

By Kit Knightly

Anything up to 99.2% of all of Italy’s recent Covid19-associated deaths could have been caused by pre-existing chronic conditions, according to a report released by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (Italian Institute of Health, ISS)

The report was translated and sent to us by Swiss Propaganda Research. Their team have been doing some great work collating and translating sources of information on the coronavirus pandemic. Their daily updated thread, here, is a valuable resource to anyone trying to keep up-to-date.

There are some very important facts here, all ignored by the mainstream.

There’s the epidemiological study done by a Japanese research group that found the case-fatality ratio to potentially be as low as 0.04% (markedly lower even than seasonal flu).

There’s German and Chinese biologists reporting the unproven nature of Covid test kits and that they can generate “false positives”.

There’s the Italian study finding that up to 75% of positive test patients are entirely symptomless, coupled with warnings from Spanish doctors that panic and systemic overload pose a much greater threat to public health than the coronavirus.

As we said, it’s all very valuable information, and we highly recommend you read the whole thread, and check their daily updates. An excellent piece of research.

…but we mostly want to focus on their most recent update, the translation of the ISS report on the morbidity of coronavirus patients. The statistics are highly interesting.

According to this report:

  • The median age is 80.5 years (79.5 for men, 83.7 for women).
  • 10% of the deceased was over 90 years old; 90% of the deceased was over 70 years old.
  • Only 0.8% of the deceased had no pre-existing chronic illnesses.
  • Approximately 75% of the deceased had two or more pre-existing conditions, 50% had three more pre-existing conditions, in particular heart disease, diabetes and cancer.
  • Five of the deceased were between 31 and 39 years old, all of them with serious pre-existing health conditions (e.g. cancer or heart disease).
  • The National Health Institute hasn’t yet determined what the patients examined ultimately died of and refers to them in general terms as Covid19-positive deaths.

Consider what these statistics mean, especially the third and final point together, followed to their logical conclusion.

99.2% of Italian Covid19-related deaths were already sick with something else, and the ISS hasn’t actually determined they died of Covid19 at all.

That’s shocking. Especially when paired with the reports that the test kits can produce false positives.

It’s entirely possible that dozens, even hundreds, of deaths in Italy (and perhaps the rest of the world) are being mistakenly attributed to Covid19 rather than the heart disease, cancer, emphysema or whichever comorbidity actually caused the death.

Let us do some simple maths. Italy currently reports 2978 pandemic-related deaths. 99.2% of those were already sick, meaning 0.8 were not. 0.8% of 2978 is just under 24. Which means, only 24 people have died whilst having no comorbidity at all. (And we don’t know their age or social circumstances).

The question becomes, why is this happening?

Why are we getting stories about overflowing funeral homes, when the worst-case Covid19 scenario (ie, no false positives or misattributed deaths) would be an increase of ~2% in the expected mortalitiy rate?

Why are we hearing rumours about Italian ICUs being over-burdened to breaking point this year, but heard no such thing when the ICUs in Lombardy were swamped with flu cases in 2017/18?

Why are the media narratives, and the actions of our governments, totally irreconcilable with statistical reality?

That should be a cause of concern for everyone.



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