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Could Intense Ukrainian Provocations Become Casus Belli For Russia?

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Could Intense Ukrainian Provocations Become Casus Belli For Russia?

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A war is not likely, but a humanitarian disaster is a real risk.

Written by Uriel Araujo, researcher with a focus on international and ethnic conflicts.

Russian-Ukrainian tensions have been escalating. On Tuesday, Russia’s Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed American private military companies are preparing a “chemical weapon” incident in eastern Ukraine in order to stage false-flag attacks or provocations.

Kiev’s entire approach has been one of provocation – and the West has been fueling it. In that particular regard, Ukraine’s approach is in line with NATO’s own: General Tod Wolters recently suggested that the Alliance should send troops to Bulgaria and Romania, thus strengthening the “security scheme” for Ukraine. Even though Washington has signalled some willingness to dialogue, such provocations do not help much. The Ukrainian military has been frequently violating the Minsk agreements and there has been plenty of shelling in the two self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics in the Donbas region. By the end of November Kiev had deployed almost half of its army (125,000 troops) to this region, on the demarcation line.

In a kind of inversion that is often applied to everything pertaining to the current Ukrainian crisis, while Russia is being compared to “fascists” in the European press, it is the Ukrainian authorities who has been pursuing a chauvinistic policy of ethno-nationalism that glorifies genocidal Nazi collaborators as national heroes. Such measures are a kind of major “provocation”: they divide and polarize the country and alienate the people of Donbas. Likewise, while the Donbas war is often described as a proxy conflict between Kiev and Moscow started by the latter to “destabilize” the former one can argue that it is precisely the opposite: Ukraine itself has been employed by the US-led NATO as a kind of pressure tool against Russia.

While today’s Western media narratives about Moscow’s supposed plan to invade its neighbor abound, instead of an aggressive Russia threatening Ukraine’s territorial integrity, one can actually see that it is the latter that is aggravating the situation at the border.

Some worry, though, that in the current context of Ukrainian provocations such narratives might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. That is, they worry about a provocation becoming a casus belli. Could it be so?

As for the risk of an armed conflict, it is quite safe to say that there shall be no war. Such is not in the West’s interests for a number of reasons. President Volodymyr Zelensky hyperbolic rhetoric about his country possessing the “most powerful” armed forces in Europe cannot be taken seriously at all, as it does not have neither hypersonic missiles nor operational-tactical missiles of any kind – even though former Foreign Minister of Ukraine Vladimir Ohryzko has recently allegedly stated Kiev is ready to strike Russian cities if a conflict arises.

Anyway,  Ukraine would be neutralized by Moscow’s military forces very quickly and instead of a Russian “invasion” the most extreme scenario would be perhaps a peacekeeping operation in the non-recognized states of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Even if the current Ukrainian regime ardently desires war – as sometimes it appears to be the case, judging by its rhetoric – Russia could force it into peace, as its 58th Army did in Georgia in 2008. This might be yet another humanitarian disaster with tremendous consequences for this country, for Eastern Europe, and the European Union itself, with extra waves of refugees amid the ongoing European migration crisis. In this scenario, Europe should expect an increase in crime and terrorism, as the Ukrainian Azov Battalion is known to recruit from extremist organizations overseas.

To sum it up, Ukraine cannot possibly defeat Russia or count on the West to do so, and no one would gain anything from an escalation of the current crisis into a larger armed conflict. Kiev badly needs to reconsider its chauvinistic policies of Ukrainization and ethno-linguistic oppression that, combined with state violence against civilians, can only be described as genocidal. The very existence of the aforementioned neo-Nazi Azov Battalion as an official unity within the Ukrainian National Guard is a scandal. And, finally, Kiev needs to reconsider its current provocation-based approach. It is in fact quite hard to guess how it benefits from such a strategy or even how the West itself might benefit from that in the long run.

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Ragheadthefiendlyterrorist

The Ukranazi coup regime literally has no other way out of its own self created mess but to threaten war on a daily basis. The Ukranazis can’t rule, that’s obvious. They have to hold on to power, and on the basis of administration they can’t do that. The only option is to invent an external threat and present themselves as the only guard against that threat. It isn’t unique to the Ukranazis. Fascists from Modi in India to Erdoğan in Ottomanistan do the same.

Last edited 1 month ago by Ragheadthefiendlyterrorist
Peter Wallace

Kenneth Kuanda of Zambia did the same. He was able to cry and shed tears at the drop of a hat claiming his country was about to be invaded to divert attention away from his incompetence. I think he was finally overthrown years later. He went to Nasser’s funeral and was noted as the only one who openly cried over the body and praised for his emotion. Idiots didn’t realise they were nothing but crocodile tears.

jens holm

Ha ha ah ha: Putin is not Kenneth kaunda. By the way Hitler and others has done that trick too.

Peter Wallace

Where’s the connection Putin to KK. Got me confused jams , not that that is unusual. Yes lots of others have done and will do as well but I was mentioning KK as not many people would know who he was . KK was not even Putin’s fart so I guess Putin is not even close to KK. Hows your virus going jams. I heard a mention that you are in a bad way again although Biden has said , get a shot of the vaccine and you will be OK , amended to two shots , amended again to a booster as well and next year is it going to be another booster on top of another booster. Why couldn’t we all get Sputnik but our government banned Sputnik before the others got their act together.. Have a good Xmas jams and look forward to more bs next year. Well maybe not. 😏

TopGum

Ukraine is a failed state. They live of the handouts from EU and US. Most of that they pocket themselves. The corruption is imaginable. EU representatives complained about it several times (filling up a hole 10x10m for 30 million EUR and stuff like that). The EU wanted to swallow Ukraine, now it choked on it :-)
Ukraine regime crying like that on a daily basis is only to get attention. Because no one really cares. They did not get in the EU, nor in the NATO. They sold their sovereignty and also their future to the wrong people. They know exactly they f**ked up big time.
They claim to hate Russia but look how they cling to Russian gas and the transit of Russian gas via their country. They should abandon the pipeline immediately, if they so sure Russia is evil like they claim. What a bunch of losers.

Last edited 1 month ago by TopGum
Peter Wallace

If anyone wants to volunteer to join the Ukrainians and get blown to pieces here is where you can apply.
“I would suggest that you contact veteran NGO in Ukraine, fex Anomaly NGO run by an American veteran living in Ukraine.
Another organization that comes to mind is Right Sector, they had volunteers.” From Yuliya Ko , Laywer Kiev.

jens holm

The chemical attacks are against the medias there. When the propaganda is dead, there will not even be a weather rapport from there

Its pathetic funny rthat even this author correct see those refugees go west. As usual there is no learning connected to that observation.

IMHO

You are being lied too by every side. Not only about this.

Every “major” nation is in bed together and the proof is in Covid 19. We have seen a lockstep responsive lie about the danger of Covid and the Covid vaccine.

If you can’t see that it’s ALL a satanic con game then you are an idiot.

Raptar Driver

The coup regime was brought in through violence. It must go out the same way.

Jon

Nothing on the Ukrainian border war the last two days. Negotiators getting down to the short strokes, no?

A path forward will be found.

Two realities will become apparent in the near future:

Russia will be more closely allied with Israel.

Russia will be more closely aligned with Germany.

These are good things.

No war is a good thing.

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