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JULY 2020

Closer Look At Russian Stance Towards Conflict In Libya


Closer Look At Russian Stance Towards Conflict In Libya

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During the World Economic Forum in Davos, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned world business and political leaders that Libya could become the new Syria. The warning followed the Berlin peace conference aimed at de-escalating the situation and setting a foothold for a political settlement of the conflict. This is a clear demonstration of the fact that no breakthrough agreements were reached.

“We made a first attempt and that’s only a first attempt to find a solution for Libya, before Libya itself also falls into this trap of proxy war as we have seen it in Syria,” Merkel said. “Let us all get together when those countries ask us to fight terrorism in their part of the world as we have done this with the overall coalition in Syria.”

Merkel’s remarks are a useful example of the West’s public doublethink. The German leader claims that the “coalition” defeated the terrorism in Syria, while in fact this “coalition” was the reason of the growth of al-Qaeda and ISIS influence in the country thrown into chaos by Western regime change attempts.

The same situation happened in Libya in 2011, when the NATO coalition overthrew the country’s government and destroyed its statehood. Since then, Libya has been in a state of the constant chaos with various foreign players exploting the seized energy resources. The main reason of concern of Germany, France, Italy, the US & Co is that they are loosing their influence there. The Libyan National Army, supported by the UAE, Egypt and partly Russia, took control of the most of the contry. At the same time, the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord fell into a direct dependence on Turkey. So now, there is only a very little room for ‘mighty European powers’, and even the United States.

The interests of most of the key players in the conflict is clear. EU powers seek to keep their control over the Libyan energy resources and prevent the expansion of Turkey, Egypt and the UAE. Turkey sees its maritime zone agreement with the GNA as an important part of its strategy to increase own economic and diplomatic influence in the Eastern Mediterranean. Egypt and the UAE want to secure own economic and political interests in the region. These include the access to the Libyan energy resources and the removal of the terrorist threat (including groups affilated with the Muslim Brotherhood).

As to Russia, the ordinary explanation is that Moscow seeks to get a share in the Libyan energy business in exchange for its military and diplomatic support. However, a wider look at the situation puts this exlanation in question. The Russian national interest is to keep high oil and gas prices, as well as to guarantee a stable demand to its energy export. The stabilization of the situation in Libya, one of the key oil producers in the region, does not fit with these goals. So, Moscow wants to achieve the aforementioned conditions, it could play a double game in the conflict. This also helps to explain the cooperation with Turkey and the the inability (unwillingness) of Moscow to force the LNA to accept the proposed ceasefire regime. This explanation could work if we use a straight logic in order to explain the Russian stance towards the conflict.

On the other hand, Russia often acts in a way that serves not its national interests only, but also interests of some groups and persons. In this case, the Russian policy in Libya could be influenced by these groups and persons that may have own interest in the Libyan question and may have some financial agreements with the LNA or its other sponsors.




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  • Harry Smith

    The share of oil in 2019 exports from Russia is 27%. I think it’s Saudis who must really worry about oil prices. And also there is OPEC which can regulate the oil prices.

    • Z.P.

      I agree.
      Russian economy doesn’t depend on oil for quite long time already.
      This is another example CRAP article, with pinning the blame on Russia whichever way it ever goes….

      • Lonesome Cowboy Burt

        Yes, and as Tom Luongo states, VV Putin actually doesn’t want oil (petroleum products) to go to $100/barrel again. Not least as it gives the oligarchs more wealth (and thus power) than they already have. Most importantly, with prices low as they are now, it substantiates or compels other sectors of the economy to put in the work, take risks, invest, improve, etc. Whereas with high oil prices, that incentive isn’t as strong re other sectors, investments, capital being diversified. Makes sense, yeah? This article, however, not so much.

  • John

    Russia doesn’t like chaos, the US NeoCons do. The less chaos in Libya, the better for Russia. Overall, not complicated. Russia and it’s ally China, cannot expand non military economic growth when everybody is running around shooting and burning stuff. My take all.

  • Ronald

    Came across a piece explaining Italy’s backing of the GNA and its Muslim Brotherhood.
    Qatar has signed some 1000. billion Euros arms deal with Italy.
    “Islam will conquer Italy, without firing a single shot”


  • Justin
  • Rhodium 10

    Russia had economic interest before Gadafi was killed by NATO…and Al Qaeda Hordes took Tripoli!…so Russia want to settle the bill. and put order!

    • Z.P.

      Russia had investments in Libyan oil industry before destruction of Libya.
      So they want their money back one way or another.

  • verner

    a bit absurd to read that merkel warns that libya can be the next syria in view of fact that libya’s well working society was razed to the ground by the disunited states of A, by france and by nato in general and after that there is chaos. russia was duped to agree to an intervention in libya and refrained from using the veto in the unsc, which was a mistake, since the disunited states of A and nato thereafter beached the agreement and bombed the place to smithereens (had it been israel instead the world would have been a better place by now but that is not the case- the corrupt and criminal illegal settlement israel is still in place and the countries that willingly destroyed the well functioning state libya are happily avoiding to speak about israel’s ethnical cleansing program (killing off palestinians), about israel’s concentration camp Gaza (starving and killing palestinians but not yet using gas), a la hitler, about israel’s lebensraum program (extending the illegal settlements borders with the golan heights, jordan valley, the west bank and jerusalem) and about the theft of the gas under the seabed and which really is palestine’s – shameful)

    • Kananda

      the truth is, that in libya never was well working society.gaddhafi was a bloody dictator and with iron hand kept order. but was still better than the present chaos.

      • verner

        free schooling, free helthcare/hospitlization etc relevant payments, little unemployment and generally gadaffi let the better part of his crude sales go back into the economy and e.g. built new keyready housing estates – but sure enough a dictator that had little patience with rabble rousers

        • Kananda

          this is one side. the second is the bloody terror, raping of girls, etc.

  • Other than coronavirus.

  • Xoli Xoli

    Bloody big face ISIS wife none stop earthquake.