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Civil War In Ethiopia: Overview Of Tigray Crisis

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Civil War In Ethiopia: Overview Of Tigray Crisis

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The Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) is currently carrying out a large military operation against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in the Tigray Region.

The region, that is located in Ethiopia’s far north along the border with Eritrea and Sudan, is the homeland for the Tigrayan, Irob and Kunama peoples. Under the Ethiopian Federal Constitution, the region enjoys a form of autonomy.

While the status of the region is determined by the constitution, the relations between the local groups and the capital, Addis Ababa, have been always tense.

The relations worsened in 2018, when Prime Minister Abiy first assumed office. The locals began noticing attempts by the central government to dominate decision-making process in the region.

A recent report by the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies traces tension between Addis Ababa and the Tigray region back to an incident that took place in September of 2019. Locals in Shire and Zalambessa assaulted a convoy of the ENDF carrying troops, which had withdrawn from the border with Eritrea under a normalization deal between the two countries.

Tension raised in Tigray after the last local elections which were held in August. A military parade that was organized by the TPLF escalated the situation further.

Addis Ababa responded to these move on November 4, when PM Abiy ordered to carry out a large military operation against the TPLF in Tigray. The PM said government forces are taking action in order to prevent local forces from taking over military positions in the region.

Soon after, a no-fly zone was announced over Tigray by the central government. The region was also placed in the state of emergency.

Despite Addis Ababa’s rapid action, the TPLF captured all the military positions of the Northern Region Command. Forces deployed at the positions defected, allegedly, and joined the TPLF and other local forces.

TPLF forces captured four S-125 Pechora air-defense bases, located in Aksum, Adigrat and the Alula Aba Nega Airport near the region’s capital, Mekelle. In the airport, local forces also seized a 36D6 “TIN SHIELD” radar, which has a range of 180 t0 360 km.

Civil War In Ethiopia: Overview Of Tigray Crisis

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Civil War In Ethiopia: Overview Of Tigray Crisis

Click to see full-size image

These equipment pose a serious threat to the Ethiopian Air Force which is struggling to survive with ever declining defense budget of the country. Between 86 to 95 warplanes of various types are in service with the air force.

Currently, the ENDF is advancing in the western section of Tigray likely to isolate the region from the border line with Eritrea and Sudan.

Government forces are advancing from the city of Gondar in two directions: the first towards the district of Tsegede and the second towards the district of Welkait and the city of Hmairah, that was captured on November 7.

Civil War In Ethiopia: Overview Of Tigray Crisis

Click to see full-size map

In the eastern section of Tigaray, government forces attempted to advance to military positions near the region’s capital Mikkeli as well as towards the area of Raya Azebo. However, the TPLF has so far repelled all the attacks on this section. This forced government forces to launch airstrikes on the region.

Civil War In Ethiopia: Overview Of Tigray Crisis

Click to see full-size map

The TPLF will pose a real challenge to the ENDF. The force has 200,000 to 250,000 experienced fighters. Government forces on the other side can amass only 162,000 soldiers.

Local fighters are not heavily armed. However, they operate a number of T-55, T-62 battle tanks as well as howitzers. Other heavy weapons were most likely seized from the Ethiopian military positions.

Addis Ababa is facing a serious challenge in Tigray. Fighting could spell out of the region provoking a full-on civil war. Furthermore, the TPLF experience in guerrilla warfare will likely prevent government forces from scoring an easy win.

If government forces fail to achieve their objectives within the expected timeline, international pressure on PM Abiy will likely increase. Ethiopia may end up losing Tigray for the TPLF in the foreseeable future.

A military defeat in Tigray will also effect the inner policies in Addis Ababa. PM Abiy has already replaced a number of commanders who held leadership positions in the armed forces.

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Al Balog

I thought Ethiopia was a rather developed African country nowadays. That’s the impression I got whenever I looked at it. What happened? ?

Jens Holm

They were one of the lowest in GDP and no many decades ago we all, whcih could, gave them a lot of stuuf and mainly food.

Oil and gas money dont spread to all and not fast, som You as in most oil countries get a new middleclass people and more jobs in regions of a country.

So Ethiopia as country actually is doing much better but as I write here.

Its old disputes and very depended on, which actually are Leaders ad what doing well is. the GDP pr capita is 750 dollar a year. Armenia and Azarbaidian are poor bit about 4000 dollars.

cechas vodobenikov

because u worship money doesn’t mean civilized people do—u never heard of PPP

Jens Holm

Go and play with Your warships or whatever You think I write about as an explanation of several.
comment image k You write about.

JIMI JAMES

Worse yet in denial to P.P.P prospectus,they are mearly exposing how rather ineffective their fake,phoney and false phaedo reserve currency is which is exacly how the bankster minions want it to be so to profit from scamdemics:

cechas vodobenikov

Reports suggest conditions have improved in Ethiopia during the past 20 years. you ask the right question–I don’t know the answer

Icarus Tanović

Anybody more i fo on this? Is this American/Wahhabi plan to destabilize Ethiopia? What is going on? Insight please.

Bobby Twoshoes

Personally I’d be looking much closer and to the North-West, Ethiopia has been very dismissive of Egypt and Sudan’s objections to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. This is pure speculation but there is clear motive and opportunity to my mind.

Jens Holm

You should no´t wonder he writes back he now takes svimming lessons:) If You send a map for where it is, his mother will print it out and make it into cigarets.

That who You try to communicate with.

Jens Holm

Very good evil version again. Its a waste giving You info, when You already has decided, what You knoe – which as too often is nothing.

Bobby Twoshoes

What a shame, Ethiopia is the only African country that survived the colonial era unconquered. On the plus side though I doubt they’ll be as quick to dismiss Egyptian and Sudanese concerns about the dam now. Makes me wonder if maybe someone might be supporting the TPLF for precisely that reason.

Jens Holm

No offence. Ethiopia was made of Harrar, Galla-Sidamo, Amhara and Scioa Governorates in summer 1936 and became a part of the Italian colony Italian East Africa, with capital Addis Abeba and with Victor Emmanuel III proclaiming himself Emperor of Ethiopia.

But I hope for no war there as You.

cechas vodobenikov

maybe or could be mainly internal. Eritrea and Ethiopia have had many conflicts; USA funds Ethipian military nearly 100$ per year to occupy part of Somalia

johnny rotten

The prime minister is a CIA man, with studies in America, his mandate is to destroy Ethiopia to harm China, as usual, as seen in Armenia few days ago.

Jens Holm

Ethiopia is a secret USA state number 51. By that only FBI and the National guard is there.

Trump soon will get his refugium there well giraded by the Natinal guard. Her wife already own all the oil and gas fields.

Satellitte

Ethiopian army will crush the tigray fascist , otherwise Isaias Afwerki army will cross the border and settle the score whit them.

Jens Holm

You are probatly their general too:)

cechas vodobenikov

this terrible conflict could continue for months—tigray has formidable troop strength and a long history of guerrilla warfare. they fought mengistu for 20 years. hopefully this will be settled soon

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