Written by J.Hawk exclusively for SouthFront
Kiev’s Unrequited Love
On the face of it, an alliance between Turkey and Ukraine seems like a rather odd creation, yet one that may surprisingly durable simply because neither country has anywhere else to turn. What practically dooms them to a partnership if not an outright alliance is their unenviable geographic and geopolitical position of occupying the strange “no man’s land” between Russia, NATO, and the Middle East. It is, of course, largely a predicament of their own making. Ukraine, with considerable Western backing and encouragement but nevertheless mostly through efforts of a faction of its own oligarchy, opted out of the Russia-centered network of loose alliances, trade partnerships, and other forms of cooperation that were mutually beneficial to the two in the previous two decades. But that defection was not rewarded by the West in a way the likes of Poroshenko, Yatsenyuk, Avakov, Parubiy, and other architects of the Maidan coup expected. Merely being stridently anti-Russian did not prove enough to warrant a shower of US and European cash, only onerous IMF loans which moreover come with conditions Kiev elites are in no hurry to abide by. EU foreign policy chief Josef Borrel lecturing Kiev that the European Union is not an “ATM machine” delivered that point loud and clear: Kiev is supposed to privatize whatever crown jewels its economy still has (at this point, mainly agricultural land), fight corruption of its own elites and facilitate the corruption of Western elites. Joseph Robinette Biden Junior is hardly the only Western politician with a talentless son in need of a lucrative sinecure. There are entire Western companies eager to participate in the thinly disguised plunder that the privatization of Ukraine’s economy will inevitably turn into. A Kiev court’s recent decision to declare the country’s anti-corruption institutions that were painstakingly stood up with considerable aid and tutelage from Western governments, down to screening appropriately-minded individuals for the job, looks as if it were calculated to send a middle-finger gesture to Borrel in terms even dense EU bureaucratic hacks will comprehend. Pro-EU newspapers like Kiev Post were quick to label this a “death of democracy”, presumably with the intent of interesting EU and NATO in sponsoring yet another Maidan since last one seems not to be delivering the goods. The expected shower of Western weaponry has not materialized, probably because NATO is afraid to give Ukraine so much aid that it will risk a full-blown war with Russia.
Ankara’s Burning Hate
Erdogan’s Turkey, by contrast, is in process of de-facto opting out of NATO, though neither Turkey nor the alliance itself want to take the final step of severing ties completely. NATO membership is still beneficial to Turkey. While the procurement of Russian S-400 air defense systems angered NATO and US in particular, resulting in the expulsion of Turkey from the F-35 program and the cancellation of F-35 sale to the country, evidently Ankara hopes that by nominally remaining in the alliance it limits NATO and EU sanctions that would no doubt be far harsher if it were totally out of the alliance. The hope that Turkey, possibly post-Erdogan, will yet see the error of its ways and return to the fold, prevents NATO from adopting harsher stances that would definitely push Ankara away. Yet the drifting apart is unmistakable, and the animosity between Turkey’s leaders and their Western European counterparts is so intense as to beggar belief. While Germany’s Merkel is careful to tip-toe around the issue due to fear of another wave of refugees as well as unrest among the large Turkish diaspora in Germany, France’s Macron seems to have taken a personal affront to Erdogan’s suggestion he might need a mental evaluation and will press the issue of EU sanctions against Turkey at future Union summits.
But from Turkey’s perspective, getting a cold shoulder from the EU is par for the course. Its own migration to the geopolitical gray zone of Eurasia was motivated by EU’s failure to admit Turkey as a member after decades of leading it by the nose and promising neighborhood in some nebulously distant future right after Hell froze over. Like Ukraine, Turkey was not seeking EU membership because of some mythical “shared values”. It, too, saw EU as an ATM machine that would shower Turkey, one of the poorest countries on the continent, with development assistance and moreover allow Turks to freely travel and work throughout the Union. Needless to say, neither of these prospects appealed to pretty much any European country, no matter how close or distant it was geographically. So after decades of leading Turkey by the nose, EU politely put an end to the charade citing problems with Turkey’s democracy. Thus snubbed, Erdogan opted to chart an independent course and appears to be finding a similarly snubbed oligarch clique in Kiev looking for ways the two countries could extract mutual benefit from their isolated status.
Quid pro Quos
There are plenty of those to be had, as limited as Ukraine’s and Turkey’s resources are, compared to such patrons as EU, NATO, US. Faced with isolation and even a potential ban on arms exports, Turkey has a strong incentive to exploit the resources of the Ukrainian defense industry and engage in some export substitution in case vital supplies are no longer available from the West. Canada’s and Austria’s ban on exports of optronics and engines needed for the Bayraktar TB2 combat drones means Ukraine’s ability to provide substitutes would be most welcome. Ukraine, for its part, would not be against deploying a huge attack drone fleet of its own in the hopes of replicating Azerbaijan’s successful offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh on the Donbass, though there Ukraine’s drones would probably run afoul of Novorossiya’s air defenses in the same way Turkish drones were brought to heel over Idlib. Turkey’s Altay main battle tank is likewise little more than an assembly of components imported from other countries, particularly Germany. Since Germany has already placed a ban on export of powerpacks and transmissions for the Altay, Turkey has been casting about for replacements, looking as far as China. Whether Ukraine’s developments in this realm can be adopted to rescue the Altay project remain to be seen. However, the Oplot powerpacks and transmissions can probably be adapted to Altay use, resulting in Turkey realizing its goal of a home-grown MBT. Ultimately, the greater the contribution of Ukrainian defense industry to Turkey’s military modernization, the more freedom of action it would bestow on Turkey and make it less dependent on other foreign sources of military hardware who can exert influence over Turkey simply by withholding future technical support. If the United States were to follow up on the F-35 expulsion with a ban on servicing Turkish F-16s which form the mainstay of its airpower, the result would be crippling of the country’s air combat capabilities that drones cannot compensate for and which would be sorely missed in any confrontation with another comparable power like Greece. Turkey’s efforts to develop an indigenous fighter aircraft would benefit from Ukraine’s technological contributions and its own interest in indigenous aircraft designs. For Ukraine, the relationship would be an opportunity to acquire NATO-compatible weaponry with the caveat that it would have to pay in full for every last drone, either with cash or in kind. Turkey’s economic situation is not so strong as to allow largesse in the form of free military aid to anyone.
Match Made in Hell
Mitigating against the long-term development of what Zelensky referred to as “strategic partnership” with Turkey is the erratic behavior of Erdogan who seeks to dominate any and all partners and tries to see how far he can push before the partners push back. This practice has led to the confrontations in Syria, Libya, and eastern Mediterranean. Ukraine, in contrast to Russia, France, and even Greece, is hardly in a position to push back. The most dangerous aspect of Turkish politics, from Ukraine’s perspective, is the ideology of Pan-Turkism that just might transform Ukraine’s Tatar community into a proxy force for Turkey right inside Ukraine, adding yet another fissure to the already fractured political picture. On the plus side, Erdogan does not appear interested in “combating corruption” in Ukraine, though that does not preclude the possibility Turkey’s military collaboration with Ukraine might not cost Ukraine dearly, though not to the same extent as EU-promoted privatization efforts.
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Dont worry South-Front..Turkey-Ukraine relationship Schopenhauer’s Hedgehog’s dilemma more than Chicken kiev-cold Turkey..One cold winter’s day, a number of porcupines huddled together quite closely in order through their mutual warmth to prevent themselves from being frozen. But they soon felt the effect of their quills on one another, which made them again move apart.
I will speak to you when you take Donbass, but don’t be mad when you lose Kiev too
Why are you one dimensional?What donbass are you talking about…?
Russia acts like an abusive husband who was beating his wife and when she finally divorces, he stalks her and melts down every time she talks with another man.
Rofl… ı run after you 4 km just to say ı dont care you…xD
Thats a good and a bad one:)
I’m the bad one :)
No,more like when the dumb slut trys to bring her piggy fat eateth slob of boyfriend to throw shit,at his blessing,of course he would smack the kunt in the mouth politely and remind the wanker stay the fk away from my turf (CRIMEA)
Indeed nobody should throw shit at some old man who mourns his dead dick over multiple vodka accidents.
We know about your plans to attack Dpr and Lpr in the near future
Why do Turks think that the Russian S-400 is somehow invincible against Russian weapons itself? In a case of war, the AD will be the first thing to be disabled, you can’t use a bought weapon against the seller, he knows it the best
dont trigger turaken trolls ,Great khan is coming
he will definitely downvote your comments rather than argue with you.
No, give Nazi friend upvote…Great Khan very fair…..
thank you ape
Turks like you are the new nazi’s, ever heared of pan-turkism dude? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlTR3-cKS6U&pbjreload=101
Great Khan like Greywolf brotherhood…
Great Khan always here…high speed internet in yurt…
Because Erdogan is dumb as hell, that’s why. As simple as it is.
Far from being dumb, he is an incredibly canny political operator, who’s so far managed to get constant Putinist appeasement since 2016 while fighting openly against Russian interests, and only against Russian interests, in Libya and Syria and Nagorno Karabakh-Azerbaijan.
But the incredible Erdogan and his jihadi’s can’t get Kobani and whole Northern Syria, due to Russian and US-convoys. He can’t have Sirte because of Russia, and lost about 100 soldiers in Idlib because of Russia and Assad. Even hosting and feeding Al-Baghdadi didn’t work out for the cunny operator Erdogan. But he faces the devastating lira and huge inflation.
He didn’t see the coup coming either. How shrewd indeed!
I agree. One important mistake for Erdogan is like the Nazis spreading out too much making the center empty. If You try to expand too much, You need production and GDP.
Now its Makron and Kromera too. I think I see some blown up too much ballon.
The nazis could have stopped their expansion and kept. Keeping is the difficult part.
I see the same for Assads. They have lost or semilost a lot and not even has 24/7 control over, what they say they have. And they are only there because of Russia, Iran and Hesbollah.
Thats a country. I dont see that.
All his wars are for economic profit. As soon as one brings diminished returns he starts another. He very successfully looted North Syria of everything that could be stripped, blackmailed the EU with the threat of refugee floods for money, bought oil from ISIS and is still buying oil from Iraqi Kurds at discount prices, and would have triumphed in Libya if Haftar had not held on to Sirte. In Azerbaijan he’s well on the way to becoming the de facto controller of the country.
Looting is like giving the cow no food and You wont get much after that.
Thst part is similar to Hitler. Even extra production was hard needed, they didnt take over weapons as well as farming productions and it declined ..,.
Well, they were sabotaged by locals too.
The system is designed to shoot down American stealth strike aircraft and cruise missiles. Greece has just purchased (with German money) x20 F-35. The greatest threat to Turkish sovereignty comes not from Russia but from RAND Anglo-America.
True, US canceled the purchase of 100 f-35 jets to Turkey. And western investors pulled out Turkish economy, hence the dropping currency. Besides, Russia has Turkey’s expansion into Syria and Libya under control as well
Thats right. It Turks moving by AKP and not us. The rest try to protect as it was and is.
I see no such threats. I see Turks makig threats against many and by that agree in that Turks can use them fx against Greeks.
No, we did not buy the F-35s and of course there is no German money but GREEK … WE HAVE 37 billion stock for equipments … from the taxation of the Greeks. Do not listen to what idiots say.
Russian weapons are no match for western high teach weaponry. That is the primary reason Russia never challenged Turkey and Pakistan who shot down antiquated Russian Migs and Sukhois at will.
Very biased version. There are several other good reasons.
All lies,serious inferiority complex likely because your se’low dementy assflogged kweer:
Who says those missiles are against russia?
Both nations would do anything for money, which neither nation have.
… Talking from experience
How much do you get paid to post? I do it for free and have never been focused on materialism. So have minimum experience.
Sorry all seats taken. But if you dress nicely, my boss is a charity man.
General Harding and his porn trolls? Like I said, I am not materialistic and have no desire to take the charity of Joel Harding and his deviant investors.
As I told you already, we don’t hire for now, so I get your alussions but the answer is NO.
So you don’t deny you are part of his team?
Touche’ Madam – Magnifique.
Thank you kind Sir.
Be careful who are you talking about. He might want to know you better.
Wow, am I meant to be scared???????
What is the going rate for one of his trolls, besides a stuffing your laptop, with more than porn than Hunter Biden?
Besides coke, hookers and a Trump autograph? The rest is military secret.
Your boss cannot be but an PAEDOPHILE as the whole of your anglo-saxon disgusting race is!
No change for you gypsy. Go eat your stinky dog food somewherelse.
Don’t worry about occupytoilet. He has been spewing bacon for years !
Yeah, I’m trying to pull out midget putin from wc right now, come in, give us a hand!
Great Khan like Chicken Kiev, it like hot mamtu with yak butter…hahhahaa
Great illiterate jihadi gypsy, improve ur english in order for ur single neuron to be able to express himself!
Russia is to blame for the Ukraine issue. Putin is incapable of leadership. First he armed and supported the Don Bas separatists and then backed down. This afforded NATO to move in and consolidate its influence in Ukraine and all over the ex-USSR. Today the US has bases in every ex-USSR state with the exception of Belarus and Armenia, which may fall soon too.
I dont think Putin could see the counterattack comming.
Russia was not economically and militarily strong enough to do as yo say in Ukraine etc. but they will be once Nord Stream 2 is finished then they will do as you say
That can be higly incorrect if Ukraine regain and more then that.
EU also has a plan against using as many fossils as we do know.
But Nordstream makes hopes.
A lot can happen. Fx the climate change can make Russia grow much less food and other products in farming.
In the other hand arctis can be mpre open and Russia can reagin old oilfields there because the tranportation can be cheeper.
Yeah, of course Russia was to blame for Ukraine. Kicking out the dodgy oligarch, in the early millennium, who flocked to support dual citizenship oligarchs, over in Ukraine.
Ukraine, who was one of 15 members of the Soviet Union, who got Freeland from Canada and Soros to write their new constitution, once the Soviet Union fell.
Ukraine, who were warned by the US and UK, they would lose Crimea to Russia, if they did not start respecting the people of Crimea and invest in the people and infrastructure.
Ukraine, who ignored the first two referendums in Crimea. Where they voted, both times to go home to Russia and ended up as an independent, autonomous Republic of Crimea.
Ukraine, who took $millions for in exchange for the missiles they stored, that were the property of the Soviet Union. They did not have the carrier’s or codes and Russia paid off the $45 billion, Soviet Union debts. But, Ukraine were happy to take the $millions, in return for missile casing (they could not actually use the missiles).
Ukraine, who allowed $oro$ to bring in Clinton and friends, to pillage the nation, under the guise of the 2004 colour revolution.
Ukraine, who happily handed over their domestic weapons, when Senator Obama turned up in 2006, with a suitcase of $US.
Ukraine, who welcomed the pillagers, back in 2014, when $oro$ launched yet another orange, colour revolution, whilst Russia were happily celebrating their winter Olympics.
Yep, can see why you would blame Russia, one of the few nations to support the people in the East, from the genocide and ethnic cleansing, coming from the dual nationality pillagers in Kiev.
In every nuclear country, the CAPITAL controls where nukes go, they belong to the CAPITAL. It can move or remove any and all nukes from one state/region to another, as the CAPITAL sees fit. Just like scotland can have a sub with nukes on it there, if scotland becomes independent, that nuke sub does NOT then belong to scotland.
Yep, that is what I was trying to say, with regards Soviet missiles and who controlled them. It sure was not Ukraine with the codes and carriers, just the casing and redundant technology, out of access to all.
Dumb kweer rant,Putin secured not only most C.I.S alliances but also crimea has never been better,built the longest bridge in all of european continent,us bases are no where near russia exception being the other part north,yet you se,m to forget who caused the sht in ukraine in the first hand,seriously you are one very sore insolent assflogged liar!
Fact usa has not in georgia nor moldova,nor armenia nor any other as for the 3 stooges up north,seriously without russia they would all be fucked,like it or lump it,lifes life!
Yes, totally agree with the amazing and thought provoking argument you have put forward here.
Russia can’t sleep at night thinking of Ukraine :) how could they lost it? What happened? Is Ukraine thinking of Russia too?
Putin open more bank account in London….hahhaah buy apartment…NATO now eveywhere….Turk brother STRONK!
You don’t know your own existence in purpose,what makes you think you know orthodox? Though not,hearken up to be great you gotta do things,not lie with your hand on it gimp!
wow what a mix , two banana republic with collapsing economy , its true that Turks selling their own citizenship/passport for investing 200 000 $ in thier housing sector? how desperated they must be .
What do you mean by *selling their own passport for investing etc..?
you can get their passport if you will invest for example in very small apartament
You mean the Turks living abroad Turkey I believe?
no mate , its for option for foreign ,,investors” ;)
Alright, got it. Well, regarding their stupid expansion all over the Middle-East they will do everything to earn money from the west, although foreign investors are not interested regarding their lira aka toilet-paper. But they reap what they have sown with their support of the jihadi sluts to begin with.
Not at all. Turks sending people home to their families or old families as well as charity are legal supporters. They work ands hopefully also pay normal tax.
This is an entrence for oligarcs and in that level, where they by and EU passport can ignore EU restrictions as well as taking in rights we in EU has for free.
Great trade Yak for fat AmeriKan woman and new yurt…true…..
You dont get it. This is for millionaires and billionaires.
Some appartments for some millions is good for a country and means nothing for them. And You can add taxfree corruption. I dont think we need more Corruption in EU then we already have.
Its very simple. If You buy Yourself in, You get an EU passport and can go anywhere here Legal even You are not allowed to come here at all because You are a well registrated criminal making transactions in EU as well.
Cyprus is the biggest passport scam. Thousands of Russians have moved in and even opened dubious banks for money laundering. The latest visa scam exposed the level of corruption in these citizenship for money schemes.
Yes, we by EU is trying to stop that and for Malta as well. Britts has their economic trics for the rich ones too.
We see it for black dirty money too. Banks are only partly tricked removing money everywhere, so the money are not taxes or used for ansything, they should not be used for. And the banks are not innocent, they just take their %. Big cases in Skandinavia are in the Courts now, but cleaning is almost impossible.
Cyprus is one by may in their versions for citicenship. We have had none of that, but ´we have debated doublë citicenship a lot. Its allowed and but the restrictions are harder now.
Less criminal than U.S. immigration…
Cyprus is well-know off-shore laundry, same as Virgin islands, Man island, Jersey and Guernsey, Bahamas and so on.
Browders the scammer not the others,either way Russias right onto slime tax cheats!
Its no abnormal way to do and in in different versions since ancient times.
Don’t end up like this guy. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/442d055d70effef29a50dd3dfb5ef7ce7feb9d4fd2ad92c551f1135308c89fb6.jpg
Very distasteful. RIP to a brave man.
Hopefully it was as painful if a death as it appeared to be hahaha
Both nations were living side by side peacefully once …what a shame
Not even close. That’s never been the case. These people are animals. Same as all Turks.
Administration of SF should block you by obvious reason. Just say “death to someones” in Russia and you can get a prison term. Promoting of hatred is prohibited by the law, article 282 of the Criminal code.
Hate crime? Such a soft person you are. Three people are my enemy they deserve ever bit of it.
You reported me to the southfront team ? Hahahaha suka, why are you so offended by their corpses?
When they were parts of Russia. ~200 years of peace. Seems as peace is boring for someones.
Nice cousin of Yours. Have You shown the picture for Your family.
You should be better than this, don’t get drown to that level dude. I know you are angry (it’s a war afterall) but this isnt the proper way to do it.
Oh it’s very proper in my opinion. This one was still alive choking on his blood.
“If the United States were to follow up on the F-35 expulsion with a ban on servicing Turkish F-16s which form the mainstay of its airpower…”
…the Ottomans would just get it from Pakistan.
This contention that the Ottomans are estranged from NATO is ridiculous. The Ottomans are far more important to NATO than the geronotophiliac Macronist regime in France.
Well, we actually do. But there is one problem because Turks produce F16s themselves and most of it well.
There are restriction for several kids of weapons for spareparts.
Wonder why SF doesn’t like Ukraine? Hmmmmm who else despises them this much? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/78e548d6515cca9041887686fd78b88dcf8867c39f7bceefd4ced68ee8cbe762.jpg
No defence and no offence. Not may likes Ukraine at all.
I also am not particularly fond of them. But I don’t obsessively despise them either, if you know what I am hinting at:))))
Every sane person hates Ukropnazis and Ukropisstan.
Every sane person surrounding you perhaps. Which is fair enough. But the whole world doesn’t consist of you and people surrounding you. The whole world couldn’t care less about Ukraine, let alone hate:)))) What beef does SF have with Ukraine?, ill leave it to others to come to a conclusion.
Wrong. The Whole World hates them. Even Trump hates them lol. Especially after the CIA/SBU tried to remove him from office. Does the name Windman ring a bell? Ukropnazis/Ukroptrash are the butthole of Europe and the trash of the Earth. They make isis look civilised in comparsion… Have a nice Sunday.?
oh i see. ok, if it makes you sleep better “the whole world hates Ukraine”:)))))
Stupidity trying to kill their peoples for the sake of lgbtq/feminazism/soros n sht!
Indeed. Same as 3rd reich, but with minimal settings of graphics.) http://history-doc.ru/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/nazi-germany.jpg https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/pavel_shipilin/51193823/1039476/1039476_original.jpg
Very poor argumentation… Turkey might seeking help with Ukraine to replace Western Weapons? Really? A bankrupt and scientific doomed country, they only have Soviet tech, but the Soviet tech isn´t that bad anyway, ask the Houthis… And in Second Place, something is attack the Pashinyan Neoliberal Govt in Nagorno-Karabakh, an Azeri region took by force by Armenia in the 90s. Other thing is Ukraine attacking Luhansk and Donetsk… Russia wouldn´t permit and an Ukrainian offensive will be the perfect justification to a large scale war against Ukraine, that has been so far, very unpopular amongst Russians, only because Russia won the War on Donbass and the Crimean “Invasion” (Russian tanks in Kiev, the Rus´ homeland)…
Putin already said, that will only side with Armenia if Armenia´s territory is under attack…Nagorno isn´t recognized even by Armenia… And Who Knows Putin since 1999 knows He fullfill his promises… Azeris wouldn´t attack Armenia. He´s waiting to Pashinyan and it´s thugs to get kicked off the office. No reason to rush to save an Western puppet…
Russians being killed in Eastern “Ukraine”, namely NovoRossiya, well… I don´t think Erdogan is that dumb to throw is head this way… Anyway, the most effective weapons in this war is the Israeli ones… This site must praise Israeli military expertise… And finally, any drones over Novorossiya will be shoot from Russian territory, this article is making a comparison of the 144th Armed forces in the World, Armenia, with Russia… Did you know that drones are easy prey for Multi-Role Fighters?
The alliance of the century,the jihadi and the nazi both the Frankenstein created children of the anglo-jewish PLAGUE on Earth!
Ukraine doesnt have a Navy at all. Aside from a few toy boats and a yellow rubber duck. Turkey would be outgunned by both numbers, tech and firepower, aside from that there is not much to gain for them. The Black Sea is for Russia what the Gulf of Mexico is for the U.S. Anybody trying something fishy will sleep with the fishes. Simple as that…
Border guards captures Ukromarine.)
Or at the very least swim with them:
Excellent article – thanks.
Ukraine, Romania, Georgia—all corrupt 4th world states, crypto US colonies—turkeys failing; an economy in tatters, deprived of tourism. they were required to sell 1/3 of their gold to prevent the lira from becoming less valuable than a Polynesian cowrie shell
The campaign against Armenia is a dry run against Eastern Ukraine. If Russia tolerates the presences of Syrian militants backed by foreign states slowly crushing Ngorno through attrition then the same thing will play out in Donbas. It doesn’t matter how well someone fights, if the orcs keep coming you will eventually run out of arrows. But hey, if Russia wants to be penned in that’s fine. Maybe all of the stans will then join NATO and install U.S. missile bases. No big deal.