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JUNE 2020

Boeing Incident In Iran: Summing Up Facts, Versions And Consequences

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Boeing Incident In Iran: Summing Up Facts, Versions And Consequences

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Investigation

On January 14th, Iran’s Judiciary announced that the first arrests in relation to the downing of the Ukrainian Airlines flight 752 were carried out.

Gholam-Hossein Esmaili, the Judiciary’s spokesman said that special commissions had been set up by the General Staff of the Armed Forces to investigate the tragedy.

“Thorough investigations have been launched and a number of individuals have been arrested,” he said.

No information was provided regarding the number of arrested individuals.

Boeing Incident In Iran: Summing Up Facts, Versions And Consequences

Gholam-Hossein Esmaili

The Judiciary Organization of the Armed Forces was tasked with probing the data on the aircraft’s black boxes with the help of experts from the General Staff of the Armed Forces and the Civil Aviation Organization of Iran as well as electronic warfare professionals, Esmaili added.

Regarding the on-going protests, Esmaili referred to the brief arrest of British Ambassador to Tehran Robert Macaire during an unauthorized protest near Tehran’s Amir Kabir University.

“The fact that the UK ambassador to the Islamic Republic attends an illegal gathering, takes photos and videos of the event and plays a provocative role is totally unacceptable,” he said.

“In his first encounter with [Iranian] security forces, [Macaire] spoke in English and refused to introduce himself, but when he later realized that he risked being arrested, he began to speak in Persian and introduced himself as Britain’s envoy,” the official added.

He said the British ambassador’s action clearly amounted to “mischief and lying,” stressing that “under international law, such elements are regarded as persona non grata, whether they are diplomats or not. The public is demanding his expulsion.”

The Judiciary said that the decision on whether to expel the British Ambassador was left to the Foreign Ministry, but according to him Rob Macaire was “persona non grata.”

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani gave a televised address on January 14th, in which he promised a thorough investigation into the “unforgivable error” of shooting down the plane.

Rouhani called for a special court to be set up with a ranking judge and dozens of experts to investigate the “tragic event”.

“This is not an ordinary case. The entire world will be watching this court,” Rouhani said. He said that everybody related to the incident needed to be punished.

“For our people, it is very important in this incident that whoever was at fault or negligent at any level” faces justice, Rouhani said. “Anyone who should be punished must be punished.”

The president called the government’s admission that Iranian forces shot down the plane the “first good step”.

“We should assure people that it will not happen again,” Rouhani said, adding that his government was “accountable to Iranian and other nations who lost lives in the plane crash”.

Iran invited experts from Canada, France, Ukraine and the US to take part in the probe into the air disaster. So far, only Canada appears to have agreed to sent experts and they would be allowed to access the wreckage and the black box flight records.

Protests

The Boeing crash incident near Tehran became a pretext for a campaign aimed at destabilization of the internal situation in the country.

Immidiately after the Iranian government claimed responsibility for the downing of Ukrainian Airlines flight 752, anti-government protests started in Tehran. The protests began with students gathering outside Tehran’s university to denounce the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Later, demonstrations spread in different parts of the city.

They called for the ‘resignation’ of  the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and denounced the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Some of protesters vandalized posters with General Qassem Soleimani, assassinated by the US military on January 3. It’s interesting to note that most of the videos showing protests are filmed in a way to show that this is a ‘mass event’, while the real number of protesters was small.

Anti-Iranian soruces also circulated unconfirmed claims that police opened fire with live rounds on protests. Police denied the claims.

Another thing to note is that the British Ambassador to Iran Rob Macaire particiapted in the protest. He was briefly detained by security forces and then released.

Tasnim news said he had been detained “for organizing suspicious movements and protests in front of Amir Kabir University but released after hours”.

The Trump administration and some other Western powers publicly called for a further destabilization of Iran by fueling the possible riots. President Donald Trump even demonstrated his “support” of the Iranian people in Farsi.

The protests appear to be on-going but their scale is unclear, since MSM appears to be misrepresenting them as a sort of revolution, which clearly isn’t happening. Pro-Iran tweets appear to be censored, but Iranian media initially reported that there were only approximately 1,000 people protesting.

The US, with apparent assistance with the UK are attempting to steer the spotlight away from Washington’s assassination of an Iranian official, in disregard of any and all international laws and the US inability to provide a military answer to a direct missile strike on its forces in Iraq by a state actor. This is further supported by propaganda in media, as well as social media.

Boeing  shootdown

On January 11, Iran officially confirmed that it air defense had downed the Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737-800 (Flight PS752) near Tehran on January 8 due to “a human error”. Iranian authorities provided the following chain of events:

  1. At approximate 23:00 UTC, on January 7, the IRGC carried out a missile strike on US military targets in Iraq;
  2. The country’s air defense network was on highest alert amid reports on a possible cruise missile strike by the United States and increased flights of US warplanes near Iranian airspace;
  3. At 2:38 UTC, January 8, the PS752 took off from Imam Khomeini International Airport and moved close to a “sensitive” facility of the IRGC “when completing a loop”. The aircraft reportedly deviated from the general PS752 course for around 2km;
  4. The altitude and the direction of the flight’s movement “were like an enemy target”. The surface-to-air missile system operator mistakenly identified as the plane as an incoming “cruise missile” 19km away;
  5. The missile system operator acted independently because of a failure in the communication system;
  6. The operator then “took the wrong decision” of firing on the perceived threat in a “ten-second” time span to shoot or ignore the flying object. During the night, the operator repeatedly called for a halt in flights in the area. This was not done.
  7. A “short-range missile” exploded next to the plane. After this, the plane continued flying for a while, and “exploded when it hit the ground.” The Iranian side did not mention the missile system used. Supposedly, it was the Tor low to medium altitude, short-range surface-to-air missile system.
Boeing Incident In Iran: Summing Up Facts, Versions And Consequences

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Iran described the situation with the Boeing as a result of the combination of aforementioned factors in the “atmosphere of threats and intimidation by the aggressive American regime against the Iranian nation”. Nonetheless, the real picture of events may have been different.

The main question is how the Boeing 737-800 may have been mistaken for an incoming cruise missile, especially taking into account that this situation developed near the capital’s working airport.

The plane was moving from the airport area. Furthermore, as experts note the Boeing plane and a cruise missile have a different signal on the radar.

“The Tor air defense system, as I told you last time, has two radars. One is a panoramic one that rotates continuously and captures everything that flies around. When the plane took off from the airport, the radar saw it in about twenty seconds. And then all the while the plane flew, all six minutes, the track was seen on the screen of the radar. This  is why from the very beginning of the flight it was clear from where the target took off.

Of course. While only the radar was working, there was a chance to think that that something military was flying next to a civilian plane. But then the missile guidance locator turns on. The missile is aimed at the target by a very narrow beam, around one degree wide. It distinguishes everything so well that there can already be no mistake. The chance that this beam will capture not only a civilian aircraft, but also something else is almost zero.

The commander of the (air defense) crew also evaluates the signal strength from the target by the magnitude of the mark: a large target or a small one. The indicators show a bright mark or dim. Simply put, the commander should have seen something big. From a large passenger plane, the mark will be ten times brighter than from a military target. And the size of a cruise missile is like from a small airplane. And it has a very low reflected power. The brightness of this point is no longer ten, but a hundred times less than that of an airplane. A missile flies in a away to be unnoticed , at a very low altitude, these are tens of meters. The Iranians shot down a huge plane flying at an altitude of 2400 meters. How can this be confused? The difference is where to direct the beam: up to the sky or down along the earth,” Andrey Gorbachevsky, the developer of radars, commented to Noavaya Gazeta daily.

In these conditions, it’s possible to draw up the following  scenario:

The plane experienced some technical difficulties during or immediately after the take-off and deviated from the course moving closer to the IRGC military site. Information appeared that the preflight inspection checklist was not signed by Iranian airport engineers, but the Ukrainian side insisted to fly at its own risk and responsibility.

Therefore, the system operator, that experienced a communication failure, considered the plane as a ‘military threat’ because it may have been hijacked for a 9/11-style attack, got under control via a cyber-attack and/or used as a cover for a pinpoint missile strike on the IRGC site.

This version does not explain how the communication failure could appear at the air defense post that must have two shielded communication channels: primary tactical circuit and the alternative. The possible explanation with an electronic warfare attack does not hold up against criticism civilian communication channels remained operational with routine flights continuing from the Tehran airport.

Another factor is the video of the missile hit that appeared online after the plane crash. How this person, could have known when and what exactly to film without advance knowledge of the developments?

Then, there is one more explanation:

The plane was shot down deliberately to exert additional pressure on Iran from the United States during the alleged acute phase of the crisis between Iran and the United States, which had a chance to develop into an open regional war. In the framework of this version, it could be suspected that the operator may have been recruited by US intelligence or blackmailed, or the system was captured in an act of sabotage by the US or its affiliated forces.

Regardless the existing gaps in the current official version of the events and the real course of the developments, Iran will and further be forced to claim that the airliner shoot down was a “human error”. Iran can ill-afford to admit the lack of control over key objects of military infrastructure in the heart of the country.

At the same time, the US and its allies will use and are already using this incident in order to increase diplomatic and media pressure on Iran and even in their attempts to destabilize the internal situation in the country.

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  • Z.P.

    Off topic:
    Men in name only: New study shows testosterone levels in American males are dropping dramatically. Why would that be?

    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/478234-testosterone-crisis-america-future/

    • verner

      it’s the same all over the western world

      • Z.P.

        social engeneering

      • occupybacon

        It happens wherever there is pollution and stress as testosterone is a fragile substance that easily turns into estrogen, one small example of substance that lowers the level of testosterone is alcohol, but there are many, many others, so just because there is no study in Russia or China or your country about this – doesn’t mean that doesn’t happen to you too :)

    • Z.P.
      • occupybacon

        It’s 164 in one year, in a country with 60 million. Btw how do you know yours is not broken if you don’t use it?

        • Z.P.

          Even with “164 in one year” they are still champions!
          Somebody should have explained to them how all that works before they start…

    • Jake321

      In the meantime, those big bad he-men Russians express their great testosterone levels with Vodka bottles. Binging on so much that they die 10 to 15 years younger than US and EU men and obviously can’t get it up much resulting in falling birth rates among ethnic Russians. Also, resulting in way higher murder and suicide rates than in the US. Too much Vodka will do that to you.

      • Z.P.

        Re-check your stereotypes.
        Alcohol consuming has dropped significantly in Russia and Russia can hardly be labeled with that any longer.
        Life expectancy in Russia have grown while in US has dropped.
        No falling “birthrates either” since all the negative demographics are only results of catastrophic situation and negative trends in the past which has stabilized now.
        Comparing to US Russia is definitely not LGBTQ feminized men community dominated by PC terror of femiNAZI’s and “toxic masculinity” inquisition…
        There is not even necessary to verify that if Russian men are more manly than Americans.
        US are in total decadence and Matriarchy already.
        Your army is tranny LGBTQ fag army:!

        • Jake321

          And how much Vodka ration you get to post that bull crap? Anyway, Russians are still one of the top alcohol binging countries in the world. It is still killing Russian men big time. As is resultant murder and suicide. The ethnic Russian population growth rate is negative. That is why Putz Putin has his eyes on and troops in surrounding areas with ethnic Russians. If Russians in Russia can’t naturally increase the Russian population, like Hitler before for him, he will claim surrounding ethnic areas to try to increase Russia’s significance. The little growth in Russia is NOT from ethnic Russians but from minority Muslim populations.The slight decrease in the US life expectancy comes all from our “he-men” demographic who similar to the “he-men” Russians like to kill themselves with alcohol and drugs and seem not to be able to get it up enough to keep the population growing. And this same self-destructive demographic are the greatest supporters of Trump and his Russian puppet master, Putz Putin. Two pees in a pot.

  • verner

    bill browder is a lying thieving criminally corrupt american jew that stole the heritage fund’s combined wealth and left his accountant/lawyer to take the rap while he is sunning himself in the caribbean. he also changed nationality to avoid having to declare whatever he stole, taxable under the irs-grabbing tentacles and thus avoiding a lengthy prison-term in federal prison.

  • Free man

    1. The Iranians fired two missiles at a plane taking off from Tehran Airport. It was moving from Tehran towards the border. So there was no possibility that it was an enemy missile / aircraft .
    2. The missiles were fired over Tehran, far from the border with Iraq.
    3. If American missile attacks took place, Rader systems should have detected the missiles far from Tehran. A missile is unlikely to appear above Tehran, suddenly.
    4. I hope that the IRGC has not decided on revenge without updating the regime. Because it doesn’t seem like an innocent mistake.

  • zman

    Some possible scenarios and reasoning. I like many others do not buy the accidental part of this. Even if one ignored all the arguments against this 737 being mis-identified, the only way the operator did not know what he was shooting at, is if he had certain systems actually turned off. The EOTS cannot be jammed, manipulated or ‘spoofed’. It is purely visual, IR and TV. It’s range exceeds the range of it’s missiles. It is all weather, day/night. In every article I have seen since this incident, this system is not mentioned, but spoofing and EW is. Which is very strange since it is an integral and important ID system. Only if this system was turned off or completely ignored, can the ID of the 737, regardless of IFF, radar, spoofing or the moon in the wrong place be relevant. Operator error would be more akin to criminal negligence in such a case. I doubt that is the case. There is something wrong with the whole scenario, especially when the added factors of the ‘miracle of timing’ night video, US immediate knowledge of weapon involved and the ‘people trail’ of the video in getting to the NYT. Iran may be lying (for whatever reason) and the US seems to be uncommonly well informed. All of which adds up to a big fat ? mark.

    • FlorianGeyer

      There are obviously a huge number of ‘What If’s ‘.

      However what Iran has done is to accept liability before the official investigation of the Black Box data, amongst other things, such as the camera looking at a black night sky just as the ill-fated plane was hit 2km after the diversion from the planned route.

      It the article it says that the Black Boxes will be analysed by Iranian experts and foreign experts. In Iran ?
      Only a few days ago the Iranians stated that France would be given custody of the black box’s and the next day in a UK newspaper there was a report saying that Ukraine would be given the box’s.

      This suggests that there is a lot more information to be exposed , and than that Iran wishes the world to see all the data.
      This can only be achieved if the US/UK is kept at arms length.

    • Zionism = EVIL

      The unfortunate and simple FACT is that the Iranian AD systems made a mistake in the heat of tensions and poor coordination in a mostly decentralized SAM environment. The eager, anxious and trigger happy To1 battery commander made a fatal IFF mistake and let loose two missiles in succession and the sad results are there for all to see. However, the fatal mistake was a political one and not a military one, the dumbass mullahs should have closed the air space over Mehrabad if they were planning on shooting dud missiles at Americunt bases in Iraq. And secondly, there is a need for a 360 degree review of operator aircraft recognition, IFF and integrated C3I (command, control, communication and intelligence) in the Iranian AD systems. The mullahs have handled this tragedy very poorly and lost a lot of domestic and international support that was gained after the Americunts murdered General Soleimani. Hopefully, a more technocratic government will replace the fat arse pot bellied idiot Rouhani and the grinning ineffectual buffoon Zarif, who has gone to ground.

      • Jake321

        But first Trump needs to make another great deal. The Grand Ayatollah for an empty office building an a jet in for repairs.

    • Jake321

      Nahhhhhhhhhh…just another example of what happens when advanced weapons are in the hands of a near third world Key Stone Cops military.

  • Mehmet Aslanak

    You guys understand US wrong all the time. They always try to bring freedom to Middle East by stealing their oil. History repeats itself, look at recent Syrian oil wells confession of Trump, or fake WMD story to invade Iraqi oil wells back in 2003.

    • Xoli Xoli

      True even Pompeo said their lie,steal and kill.USA is big thiefs democracy.Satan and Satanyahu lead by Trump destroy US America.

    • igybundy

      they brought freedom to canada but got bitch slapped and got their house burnt down instead but they still keep trying like to bring freedom to bolivian lithium and Venezuelan tar oil..

    • Jimmy Jim

      THE JEW BEAST IS THE PROBLEM FOR HUMANITY!

    • goingbrokes

      Yep, free the oil from the current owners.

  • Johan

    The next proof how islam redefines words until it suits its needs, take lies every lie s becomng a tayiqqa “In no world does delaying the truth for a few days ……” delaying the truth until your forced to tell ( partial) the truth is lying. What els is lying as delaying the truth untill…….

    • igybundy

      hey numnuts dont get your penis all wacked into a bunch repeating the same krappola all over the internet from your haifa boiler room talking points….

      • Johan

        Wait until you past the phallic phase , grow up , and maybe then you are able to bring a reaction with content.

    • Jimmy Jim

      NUKE THE KIKES & SAVE HUMANITY!

  • Davki

    It’s likely that some sort of cyber attack managed to infiltrate critical systems… either of the flight itself or defense batteries or other. Iran wouldn’t want to acknowledge that, while there are countries, especially one country highly specialised in that.

    • igybundy

      This was not integrated into the main system so the only thing that got jammed was the operator.. ie a mole or spy who actually had control of the vehicle… Maybe why Iran is lying.. israel bribed and got some MEK terrorists into positions inside the IRGC.. We know this already.. But they have control of some very dangerous systems like this.. Would be scarey and like idiots and druggies having control of US ICBM’s.. oh wait..

      • Jake321

        The Marians did it. Now go tune your tinfoil hat, kid.

    • A system that isolated cannot be cyber attacked. Also, it’s Russian made, I don’t think the Iranians will be dumb enough to buy U.S. originated equipment again like PC’s. There is an outside chance of EW jamming of radio preventing him from contacting his superiors through the radio but that’s a long shot. I bet we were messing around w/the Iranians creating a noisy environment for them putting them on edge, flying military aircraft near their borders and things of that nature.

  • Avi Schwartz (IDF:71, hamas:0)

    Iranian Bavar-373 destroyed by IDF F-35’s inside T4 Airbase, central Syria! Israel reportedly gave early warning to the Russkies, and the Russkies in turn promised to stand down and not interfere, otherwise Israel told them their fighter jets would target and shoot down any interfering Russkie aircraft! Also many IRGC hangars, barracks, and buildings destroyed inside T4! Over 100 IRGC militiamen eliminated. IDF F-35’s were never detected ONCE by Russkie, iranian, or syrian air defenses! Mazel Tov!

  • verner

    whichever way you look at it, the responsibility for the deaths of 176 persons on board the ukrainian airliner rests with trump directly and indirectly with the israeli and/or american and/or other jews around the world and that is precisely why it is of paramount interest/importance to the world to send the jews onto their next diaspora replete with pogrom and untold hardship, well deserved and earned.

  • Regarding the ‘color revolution’ part of the article, recently there was a defection of Iran’s female Tae Kwan Do champion who gave a speech that sounded kind of wooden, could have been written by Pompeo. Can’t read her mind but given the timing, I would not be surprised if she was ‘Brian Hooked’, bribed into defecting.

    I get that there are restrictions on woman on Iran and don’t doubt that there is discontent but her statement just sounded a bit over the top.