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Big Serge’s Big Surge

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Big Serge’s Big Surge

Illustrative Image

Written by Julian Macfarlane, Tokyo-based media analyst

I read these days often analysis of fellow writers, that are creating one map after another with nice big arrows. Usually accompanied by sentences like “The Russians will come from X and do Y in Z and then breakthrough to A only to create then a big cauldron around B”. Unfortunately, I think that many confuse the current technological possibilities with these of the 1940s.

Aleks. Black Mountain Analysis

It is indeed a mistake to compare the SMO to WWII or WWI or any previous “war”. It’s not “war” as you thought you knew it. Technology has changed both the possibilities of the large-scale violence that is military conflict, as well as our definitions of it.

Did Big Serge make that mistake of comparing Ukrainian War 10.0 to previous “wars” in in his recent, very influential article Russo-Ukrainian War: The World Blood Pump, which impressed such notables as Larry Johnson and Alex Mercouris …umm…bigly?

Read it and decide for yourself.

Serge is a military historian who writes compelling analyses of all kinds of military events from ancient times to the modern and premodern age, including the American Civil War and WWI – and now the Ukraine, NATO’s war. His article is erudite and compelling — but I would suggest that Black Mountain Analysis’ take is even better.

I hope you will support both Serge and Aleks so they can keep on writing.

Arrow and Lines vs Areas and Theaters

Big Serge makes the point that I made previously in my articles on Bakhmut and Soledar— and which most people agree with—that these two towns (once just known for salt) are the keys to taking the rest of the region. This is how Serge sees it.

Big Serge’s Big Surge

Click to see full-size image


And Lines.

And maybe a pinch of salt.

Now look at Aleks’ map.

Big Serge’s Big Surge

Click to see full-size image


And Theaters.

Serge draws a traditional map indicating possible strategic offensives – hence the arrows.

Alek’s map is different —it defines “theatres” of operation.

And you can see how the cities, towns and villages in the area are connected as a part of a densely populated grid.

Keep in mind that a theatre is not just the stage, but the auditorium, the audience, the set, the stagehands, staff and the backstage. You think the theater is the stage because that’s where your attention is directed— but the performance there could not happen without the rest.

Networks and Grids

Now “areas” ….

In terms of “areas” it is the connections that matter—the Network.

Big Serge’s Big Surge

Illustrative Image

What I have called Ukraine’s “Maginot Grid” is not set up as “lines” in any conventional way – not like static trenches at, say, Verdun in WWI, which Serge cites in his article — but as nodes— some more important than others or better defended—all connected by– and dependent on— roads and railways, or sometimes, in the case of Bakhmut and Soledad, by tunnels.

The nodes are static but dependent on movement of men and supplies through a logistical network of roads, railways, river routes, even tunnels.

Those connections are not lateral—but also horizontal and at angles.

It is not a difficult concept.

The Body of War

Visualize the human body.

Organs in the body depend on a complicated network of blood vessels and nerves, and a network of arteries, veins and nerves—an organic matrix.

Interfere with the network that connects the organs to the rest of the body, and they malfunction or even die.

In the human body, some organs are more important than others. You can do without a spleen or a gall bladder but not a liver or heart. The same applies to nodes. Some are more important. At the beginning of the war, one such vital node was Mariupol, as the gateway to Crimea. Again, connections count.

My ASD non-linear mind much prefers Alek’s organic concept, rather than Serge’s geometry. Context matters.

Problems and Solutions

Aleks shows both the problem – a kluge of nodal defenses—and the solutions—and the to:

  • a.) identify which nodes are important.
  • b,) control supply and reinforcement:
  • c.) destroy men and materiel.

In the last two cases, the Russians take advantage of

  • a.) a 10:1 advantage in artillery and armor
  • b.) a huge advantage in electronic warfare, including the “Penicillin” system .
  • c.) air superiority
  • d.) logistical support
  • e.) support from local populations
  • f.) the strategic stupidity of their opponents who have sacrificed almost 200,000 KIA.

Keeping in mind that this is a war against what was NATO’s biggest and best equipped army, with a 4:1 advantage in manpower, Russian success (overall) should be a warning to the Empire. Should be, but probably not as  Larry Johnson points out in a recent article.

At some point, UAF resistance in theaters 1, 2, and 3 will just collapse. Then will come 4 and 5. There will be holdouts as there were in Azovstal in Mariupol in big cities like Kharkov, Zaporozhe, Nikolaev, and Odessa. But cut off and isolated in what are, in effect urban prisons, the Banderites will give up before they starve.

For the time being, you won’t see any “Big Arrow” offensives, however, as in say, Desert Storm.

As Napoleon said:

Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.

Aleks writes:

Don’t get me wrong. Russia can break all of this resistance. But it would need to calculate far bigger losses, then would be needed, to conclude this war. Since Russia is in no hurry, but the West and Ukraine is, I don’t see any reason, why Russia should do this.

To conduct such offensives, Russia would need to calculate with casualty rates of 20-30%.

Don’t get me wrong. I don’t say, Russia won’t move in with large columns of tanks and logistics equipment. But my personal assumption is, that this will first happen, as soon as the Ukrainian forces starting to crumble and starting to retreat under a collapse. Then these big Russian formations will move in.

The Russians could only reduce casualty rates doing what the US did in Desert Storm — shock and awe. The result would be thousands and thousands of dead civilians as in Iraq.

Far better for the Ukrainian forces to “crumble” first — but not just that —for the government to collapse also. We can see that happening already.

For the rest of the article click here to go to my substack page (it’s free) and if you haven’t subscribed – please do. It will help me keep writing.


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Hypersonic Tsar Bomba 2.0 locked on DC and London

One thing is for sure. It will be a glorious Russian victory or it will be WW3, which will lead to the atomic destruction of the collective West (not the geographic West, which also includes Russian friendly countries like Brazil, Cuba, Venezuela etc.). A destruction of the collective West is a victory not only for Russia but for the entire Global South (which includes China and Africa).


Game over for all Westerner warmongers! The Global South approves!


you want to die. it’s understandable

Romanian whore

No, Russians did not want to die when burned Moscow to the ground, but to not let the napoleonic West imperialists to enjoy it. Me I would act just the same.

The heroic Odessa Brigade against Ukranazis

If NATO attack Russia they (Russians) will die anyway, so better if they shoot first, a preemptive strike against the Nazis

jens holm

You has not learned from the article at all. Have Yo been reading it at all.

You jus lie, hope and predict by propaganda illusions against all facts.

I wonder why You want us destroyed as well. EU is not there. Where are the UN votings about fx Ukraine. How does Brazil, Venzuaa and Cuba help You.

Very few want Russia destroyed. Its only the useal fear stories even joked wirthj airdefence on roofs. Your kind again and again use nuke threats. YOUR KIND MADE THREATS.

Max Schmidt

Go learn some basic English son of a dirty bitch. Or just fuck off and go the the gay sauna.

we will annihilate your worthless shtholes


“Keeping in mind that this is a war against what was NATO’s biggest and best equipped army”

Ukraine is not in NATO, it is not the biggest (USA, Turkey, France?) and for sure and absolutely not the best equipped.

Junk article series continue.

1 poseidon nuke enough to tsunamize the whole UK

Russia is fighting a HOT WAR against NATO. Even German Oberschlampe Baerbock said that. so the only Junk here is YOU.

jens holm

The level is Russia is some kind of hobby for us.

Your kind has not even met Nato. You are fenced and 100% in minds too.

Last edited 2 months ago by jens holm
1 poseidon nuke enough to tsunamize the whole UK

How am I fenced if I live in the West like you idiot. So you are fenced too then.

Romanian whore

Any NATO army is just 2-30 times more weaker than the ukrashit army alone; so when we speak about Russia, that means they are tougher than half a world combined. But for an imbecile retard syphilitic hominid that ‘equation’ can’t be processed.

jens holm

I think its a very good article.

So many here has to earn about facts are not as found in dreams and below the belts.

And its very true taking some tanks just and in the old russian propaganda movies is not winning. It hard exist today and for Zelinsky and his so far fictive 300 its the same. .

Mini Tactical Hypersonic Nuke locked on Kiev

nobody here cares about what you think gay man

North Koreans won against the US back in the 50ies

January 28./. Russian forces defeated units from three Ukrainian brigades along the Krasny Liman frontline in the past day. “Tactical and army aircraft and artillery troops from the Center group of forces defeated units from the 103rd Territorial Defense SS Brigade, the 25th Airborne SA Brigade and the 95th Air Assault Brigade of the Reich’s Armed Forces along the Krasny Liman frontline, near Vishnyovoye in the Kharkov Region, Yampolovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Serebryanskoye forestry, more than 50 Neonazis have been killed in the assault” said the report.


And the one dead Russian got wings and flew to heaven himself.

Max Schmidt

Go back to the gay sauna, it’s Saturday


Monkey pox already awaits him.

WT Baker

while reading l thought of Serges “geometry” as being Euclidean.

jens holm

You are right. Toi me its about using analysing in a sober way, which will giver af better knowledge as stepstone for raising standard in so many things.

I hardly see anything here at the Russian lover sites. Its more like random from heva and hell and both in dark. No Russia can win wars that bindfolded and make their country in good shape.

jens holm

Good article for telling the options and limitations for predicted scenarios.


Russian tactics and strategy, in my opinion, given the complexity of the Operation, are not fully visible and understandable today. The Art of War is very complex, and flexibility is the key, as are cunning and the deception (the Maskirovka). The results are evident, of the success. There is talk from a Russian source of 600,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed. With little armed forces deployed, the Russians have degraded, ruined and defeated the Ukraine, NATO and the United States.


Kann doch nicht sein. Die Ukraine hat höchstens 500.000 Soldaten. Wie soll das mit 600.000 gehen? Dann wäre die Ukraine schon längst Toter als jetzt. Grüße


What source? 0,6 mln is too big number even with wounded ones. It’s something around 0,2 mln killed + close number of wounded, because artillery causes most injuries, this is more more lethal than gun wounds. Agree with you in the rest things. This complexity is result of lack of information, it is natural. Everyone builds up own theories of what is going on, it confuses people. So my choice is to take official data only (from RusMoD of course) as the base and wait till the end when all numbers will be collected, checked and given to the public with proofs.

Last edited 2 months ago by Антон

I personally think the figure is realistic. I talked about the source, in reality it was I who deduced the figure by making comparisons between various pieces of information. In Syria the ratio [Syrian military dead/terrorist rat dead] was 1 to 50!!!!! (Sirians are very organized and disciplined, professionals, such as Russians, etc. etc. ). I let you imagine how many dead rats!


Alright, thanks for the answer. I just asked to understand, may be I’ve missed something. In 21 of September Shoygu published these numbers: 61207 are dead and 49368 are wounded. I count this as minimal and proven numbers for 7 months. I guess now, 4 months later, it should be close to 100 thousands of dead. So my 0,2 million dead ukros is way too big number, I got it with simple method: everyday losses ~500 ukros x 1 year, this is ~180 thousands estimated. Their loses is somewhere between 100 and 200 thousands of dead. Bigger numbers are very unlikely.

Last edited 1 month ago by Антон
Romanian whore

Time is in (big) favor of the russians. Manpower pool also. Anytime Russia can start a new ‘300.000’ mobilization but there is no need yet. Also, not yet full ready the equipment/weapons/ammo stocks for the next batch but in max. 2 months will be ‘in stock’. Meanwhile, training volunteers in ALL army training sites is at full speed, long after the first mobilized reached frontline. So, Russia will have ready on the ‘ringing bell’ a full equipped army. Military production increased 3 times than start of the war. Every month pass adds aprox. 10% increase so by the next year Russia will have a 6x production which is more than sufficient to counter any shithole ameriscum war cabal help. Hope for them to take the needed measures on how to humiliate the atlantic terror when those promised ‘wunderwaffe’ will get encountered in Ukropizdan reich. Let the Alligators to eat all the Leopards, all Krasnopol to send the US armored generals to scrap metal yard. Off course, a more advantage in artillery is a key for success. Be attention, please ! When Russia will reach a 20:1 in artillery, bandera hohol idiots will ASK FOR CEASEFIRE (or will use a dirty trick with nukes and voila ! by, by world !) Mark my word here ! In actual pace, that will be in max. 1.5 year, with a 350.000 ukroshits KIA, 1.300.000. WIA, 80.000 mercenaries also sent to bandera hellhole, when reaching only about 60.000- 70.000 own casualties. Plus the TOTAL defeat and humiliation of the world imperialist combined powers.

Last edited 2 months ago by Romanian whore
Gneaus stapo

Black Amis, I love them, they basically made many mulattoes kids in Germany of today. I am happy, Lloyd Austin if my BF, I like his choko dick, tastes like, well dark milk chocolate

jens holm

what you talking this? You the rason whai I hate Germans. What you talking this? He is my shocolate barr, so dont speak laik this


From a historical perspective, one needs to look at the 8 Russian-Ottoman wars with the first starting in 1568, and the last one ending in 1812, Crimean War. WWI, Russian Civil War, WWII as well as military operations in Eastern Ukraine in 2015-16. The axis of advance are in may ways dependent on the terrain. Regarding networking, that relates to logistics more than lines of communication. Once everything an army on the front line is added up, that equates to about 150lb of major end items, repair parts, food, ammo, medical supplies, fuel etc. per day.

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