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Behind The Threshold Of Defeat: Are Armenian Chances In War With Azerbaijan Disappearing?

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Behind The Threshold Of Defeat: Are Armenian Chances In War With Azerbaijan Disappearing?

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The former Minister of Defense of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic – Igor Strelkov – gave an interview to Russian news outlet NNA (National News Agency) on the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and mistakes of the Armenian military command could lead to the final loss of the region.

The following part of the text is based on what the NNA reported of his statement:

In Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijani troops came close to the road that connects the capital of the unrecognized republic of Stepanakert with Armenia, along which the supply of the Armenian army goes.

According to the Artsakh Defense Ministry, battles are already underway near the cities of Lachin and Shusha.

Former Minister of Defense of the DPR Igor Strelkov on the air of the NSN explained that near Lachin, the operational crisis among the Armenians is not as acute as near Shusha.

“For the Azerbaijani troops there is absolutely no difference where they intercept the road between Lachin and Shusha and, accordingly, Stepanakert.

They already intercepted it three days ago and interrupted the supply of the entire Armenian grouping east of Stepanakert and Shushi.

That is, now they do not really need to seize the Lachin corridor.

They will continue to exert pressure – maybe it works out, on the one hand. On the other hand, sooner or later it will still have to be occupied.

And so the Armenian forces east of Stepanakert and Shushi are in an operational environment.

Since the southern road, one of the two that connect Stepanakert with Armenia, has already been cut. The northern road is also located not far from the front line and under the intense influence of the field artillery of the Turkish coalition, not to mention aviation,” Strelkov said.

He noted that after some time the Armenian forces will experience a shortage of ammunition, fuel and lubricants and food.

“The coverage of Shushi is a serious strategic achievement in this offensive from Azerbaijan,” the former head of the DPR Defense Ministry stressed.

According to him, if Shusha falls, it will take just weeks before the Armenians are completely defeated.

“If it can be defended, which I doubt, the fighting will drag on until the new year or even longer.

The situation can collapse in a matter of days, because in addition to the Shusha direction, which is now the most important for Azerbaijan, the offensive is being carried out on Martuni, where battles are already taking place on the outskirts of the city.

Offensive operations are also taking place on the northern front. Armenia cannot resist the Turkish-Azerbaijani coalition, which uses the most modern Turkish technology.

Not to mention Karabakh. Without serious interference in this conflict, not even as a participant in hostilities, but at least within the framework of ultimatums, Iran or the Russian Federation, or better both, hostilities in any case will end with the defeat of the Armenians and the occupation of Karabakh. The only question is in time,” he explained.

Strelkov noted that the Armenian side in Karabakh made many unacceptable military mistakes.

“But the Armenian side made a very large number of both strategic and tactical mistakes, which led to a quick defeat on the southern flank and an acute operational crisis, in fact, a semi-encirclement of the Armenian troops.

Even to retreat now from the region of Stepanakert, Magduni, Aghdam, keeping the equipment, the troops of Nagorno-Karabakh cannot.

They are on the verge of complete defeat, if they do not unblock the track in the near future. They have not been able to do this for three days, on the contrary, the zone of Turkish influence to the west of Shushi is expanding. We can say that the threshold of defeat has already been overcome,” he clarified.

In his opinion, the main mistake of the Armenians in this conflict was that they were preparing for a sort of “final war.”

“They had strong enough artillery, a sufficient number of combat-ready tanks, multiple launch rocket systems, conventional air defense systems. But there were absolutely no means to resist the shock and reconnaissance-corrective unmanned vehicles, which were massively used by the Turkish coalition. Gliding homing projectiles and all other latest technology. The Armenians were generally not ready for this,” Strelkov said.

He also said that being completely confident in their forces, the Armenians deployed their troops in fortified areas along the border, not foreseeing the possibility of an enemy breakthrough.

“As soon as, using the latest technology and superiority in forces, the Turkish troops managed to break through along the Araks, the front immediately collapsed.

In the rear, there were no fortified areas, no nodes of resistance prepared in advance and occupied by the troops. And from that moment Azerbaijani troops began to attack in all directions, easily repulsing counterattacks.

Another mistake. The Armenians tried to counterattack in the conditions of the enemy’s total air superiority, and not to organize a defense on new lines.

With a general, probably threefold, superiority in manpower and equipment, the lengthening of the front is beneficial for the Azerbaijani-Turkish troops. The wider it is, the more likely it is to find gaps in it. And that’s what they are doing,” the former DPR minister said.

According to Strelkov, it is highly likely that by the New Year, Nagorno-Karabakh will be completely lost by the Armenians.

“Despite the opinion of some analysts that the complete victory of Azerbaijan is allegedly not beneficial to Erdogan, I believe that Erdogan and Aliyev are united in that they will strive to inflict a complete defeat on Armenia in the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and completely cleanse the region by the New Year,” Strelkov concluded

Currently, the Azerbaijani armed forces in Nagorno-Karabakh continue their offensive along the entire front line.

***

Summing up comments of Strelkov to NAA refers to the Azerbaijani forces almost entirely as the “Turkish Forces” as it appears for him there is no difference, and that Erdogan is the de facto sovereign of both countries and their respective armed forces.

Azerbaijan continues its advance, and despite Armenian calls of successful defense, the lack of manpower and, mostly, the necessary hardware, are proving too vast to effectively stop the Azerbaijani forces, along with the Syrian militants that fight on their side. Armenia seems to be using its forces not very effective, and the recent policy of Yerevan, which is predominantly anti-Russian, doesn’t actually benefit its defense. Russia does not rush to join in to defend the region that even Armenia does not recognize as its part.

Armenia also refuses to acknowledge the Artsakh Republic as an independent state, and hopes some other country would do so – weeks have passed and nothing of the sort has happened. But, if it recognizes it as an independent republic, then it can’t, at least for a long while, attempt to make it a part of its borders. The deployment of UN peacekeepers that could theoretically help to establish a permanent ceasefire at least for some period also does not seem to be likely in the current condition. Regardless multiple legal issues with the employment of such a move (Azerbaijan is strongly against it), the Armenian-Azerbaijani war in Karabakh is in fact in its hot phase and such peacekeepers cannot be deployed without the establishing of the real ceasefire regime.

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SevenMoons

Good analysis. Totally agreed. Except the part with “Radical Islam”. There is no solid evidence regarding that. Azerbaijan does not need any more troops.

Rhodium 10

Syrian terrorist& Turkish advisors& Israeli weapons….and they havent be able to retake NK fighting vs Lumberjacks!…Pashinyan is missing and dont support with SU-30 and SU 25 using air to ground missile because he is like all pro western Serbian president which sold Kosovo to Albanians to build a Pseudocalifate in exchange of EU membership…

SevenMoons

Parshinyan is a scholar, not a nation’s leader. He ruined NK and Armenia.

Random Dude

He might have done more than meets the eye. His actions might finally bring peace and cooperation to the region.

Mr T

but but but but but …

The Objective

Don’t rush, they’ll take NK. Just keep watching.

Porc Halal

I agree … islam cannot be considered “radical” but rather extremist, criminal, satanist, etc …

The Objective

Yeah, you can die of hate, but Islam predates even your great, great, great, great, grandparents. Many like you have wished to see the end of Islam. The tried all they could, but here we are. Islam continues to grow, attracting more converts worldwide.
You’ll take your hate and wish to the grave.

Simplekindof Man

“…..(Islam) continues to grow, attracting more converts worldwide….”
https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/13/health/falling-iq-scores-study-intl/index.html

The Objective

You are referring me to CNN? What a laugh. Islam continues to grow and will continue to do so regardless of how you disbelievers feel about it. Many were they who felt the same way like you. But they couldn’t do anything about. Neither will you nor your governments. You may trouble us for a while, but that’s about all you can do.

Simplekindof Man

You’re just proving me right.
You have to be capable of critical thought to distinguish between (the CNN)bs and reality.
CNN didn’t make a discovery it just rejuvenated
Scientific findings that are provided by years of research.
You *could* find them officially elsewhere. It was merely a quick link for you of sth I read in the past.
Got it or should I elaborate for you?You know,break it down, explain in detail?
ok this time?

The Objective

Oh, it’s Islam trying to conquer the world not YOU globalists? Do you know how many people your white race has killed for the in the past century, including whites? All in their attempt to dominate. And you hypocrite has the nerve to say Islam wants to conquer the world when you westerners are the ones killing and enslaving people for world dominance. If you had any IQ, sure you would know better whose drive for world dominance is truly deadly.

Simplekindof Man

I never said the opposite.
Everyt statement of mine applies for everybody.
There IS such a thing as objective science.If I see a virus in a microscope should I not believe it’s there?
Anyway nice weather outside,life is short,have a nice day.

The Objective

I don’t believe anything from your western scientists about Islam. we have our understanding of what Islam is, and nothing will move that.

Simplekindof Man

A baby has an understanding of what the world is,until he/she touches a hot pan.
Then suddenly the is new information.Then learns that there is more to speach then
Aba aba….Then discovers numbers….
.. then….
Locking ones mind into a box is never a good thing,at least that’s my opinion.
If a 10 year old told you”I’m not learning any more I know everything” wouldn’t you laugh?Guess what,the kid who told me that is the biggest stooge and losser of his class.
Hope the best for you,peace.

Porc Halal

If you know a “muslim” woman that is educated, that means she is no longer considered as a true muslim woman…it is well known that islam , through his false prophet (to me he was more like an worior sex-maniac guru, an illiterate worrior sex-maniac guru) consider women as sexual slaves and inferiour to men…but, still, muslim women are considered superior to Christians or Jews, who are considered to be the “worse creatures” from the face of the world…just read the satanic book called shitquran or other shitty islamic “teachings”…

Porc Halal

I didn’t even bother to answer this mentally retarded … so “religion”, so retarded! …

He (i.e. The Biased) refers to “islam growth” as something that has grown like Christianity, that is, by preaching the word of truth (i.e. the word of God, aka Jesus Christ) .. but he knows as well as we do that this fake religion and in fact a criminal ideology (i.e. islam) spread under the threat of the tip of the sword … so pathetic !! …

Simplekindof Man

He fails to understand the difference in the teachings of these religions and the people CLAIMING( wars, middle ages etc) in the name of Christ/the bible and actually doing the opposite (wars,middle ages, “church institutions”etc)
Anyway endless conversations….
Peace.

Random Dude

Exactly what I have been writing for the last 3 days. Considering the similarities in the terrain, seems like Azerbaijan has closely monitored Russian moves in 2nd Chechen War. Slowly, with air support, cut the supply lines, then piece by piece surround and eliminate the opposing armed formations. Take your time to minimize losses. Smart move I would say.

SevenMoons

I remember just early this year, Artsakh/Armenia threatened Azerbaijan to occupy more Azerbaijan territories if Azerbaijan dares to take military actions against “Artsakh”. That was such a blunder and bluff.

What happened over the past 26 years is that, Armenians believe they are invincible, just like the Israelis. They think they can take Muslim land at will, any time and any manner they so desire. They think they are supported by Russia, US and France. They also believe Azerbaijan will never has the resolve to take military actions to recover its lost land.

Over the years, they also got very comfortable living on occupied land. They started to raise 7 or 8 children, just like how they raise pig and sheep. They built defense structure near the frontline, stockpile food and ammunition in the defense caves. they also get their aged tanks, artillery and other weapon in active condition. They believe they are strong and ready any time to face Azerbaijan.

But now we see what had happened. Those aging tanks, artillery and trenches are no match to the high-tech drones. Their military leadership has no answer.

The days of “Artsakh” are numbered.

Free man

You don’t mention the Azeri side.
The Azeris had been preparing for this war thoroughly for a long time. They formed a strategic alliance with Turkey and Israel and thus became the invincible side.

SevenMoons

This is true. But I was just talking about the comments made by the former “Artsakh” official. The Artskins enjoy too comfortable life over the past generation. They are mountain farmers and they do not really produce much and have the resources to maintain its military readiness. They live in their dreams of “Greater Armenia” while Azerbaijan has been training its army and acquiring modern weapons.

Armenians just completely mis-calculated the situation. They should have negotiated a more favorable “peace” settlement. They had the opportunity to have NK become independent. It only required them to give up all the land they occupied outside N-K. But they were so stubborn and they would not do it.

Now they get probably nothing.

RichardD

N-K isn’t Azeri and never has been. Pashinyan has completely betrayed the Armenians living there.

Porc Halal

Right, it makes me laugh when this dead brain (ie SevenMorons) says “they can’t take muslim land”…

The Objective

You can take Muslim lands, but only temporarily. But we took many of your lands parmanently.

SevenMoons

United Nations and all major world powers, US, Russia, France, UK and China, stated very clearly that N-K is a sovereign territory of Azerbaijan. This is confirmed with all UNSC resolutions.

As to Parshinyan, he is probably even worse than previous Armenian leaders. At least those past leaders talk some sense. But Parshinyan can only talk, nothing else. He made so many blunders.

But he is also the hostage of Armenian nationalism. The same way Modi is doing with Indian Nationalism. Armenia believe it can beat back stronger Azerbaijan. India believe it can beat back even stronger China. Because Armenia thinks both US and Russia support them. And India believes US supports Indians.

Very foolish thinking. They always think about their backers, not themselves.

RichardD

None of the UNSC P5/6 (NI) support Azeri sovereignty over N-K, only the 7 buffer zone districts.

Pashinyan isn’t even trying to counter the Israeli Yinon plan/Azeri/Turk offensive.

Harry Smith

NK was Persian land. When this land was captured from Persians and most of the Muslim population run to the Persia, some Russian diplomats decided to bring Christians to this land. So they gathered Armenians there. After Armenian kingdom fall deep in the centuries ago, Armenians had no land until 19th century.

RichardD

The history that I’ve read shows that it’s been continuously inhabited by primarily Armenians for the better part of 2,000 years. The region that it exists in has changed hands from the Turks, Persians/NW Persians (Azeris), and Russians. With periods of primarily royal self rule, and later as part of various independent republics.

If you have different history. Please send me links.

Harry Smith

The history you read is written by Armenians. There are a lot of sources in Russian but I don’t think they will be any useful for you. You know, Seattle was primarily inhabited by Indians but it will be nonsense if Mexicans will start to claim it’s their land just because they have Indians as ancestors.
And if we speak about times BC, no mono ethnic states existed in that time.
BTW Azeris are not NW Persians, but Turkic people. They came in times of Turkic invasion and captured a lot of Caucasus and Persia. After that they established Shia empire on that land and were fighting with Ottomans. So there are a lot of Azeris living now in Iran. As far as I know Iranian Ali Khamenei is Azerbaijanian.

RichardD

By NW Iran, I mean that they make up a large part of NW Iran and have for a long time. I understand that they’re a Turkic people.

Harry Smith

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flat_Earth
This article has more than 160 references translated from a lot of languages. Does it means the Earth is flat?
Wikipedia is not the best source of historical info.

RichardD

The sources aren’t from Wikipedia. If you have links showing that a Armenian majority hasn’t been there for the past 2,000 years. Then please post them.

Harry Smith

Maybe Armenians are ancestors of some aliens?

NatureTruth

When one is too weak to confront enemy esp without airspace control, a full head on clash is absolutely foolish suicide. Amelia leaders are no brave heroes but morons that bringing its country to certain defeat.

Study Mao’s guerilla warfare, the highest & proven Warcraft. One has to resort to guerilla warfare in cities, scatter to outskirts, mounting endless ambush & harass, lure enemy deep to sabotage its long supply lines, etc. This will draw out the war until adversary too exhausted to give up.

Also look at how weaker resistance forces of Afgh Taliban, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya, …where they could fight overwhelming powerful USNato-Israel-Saudi-Turkey axis to their own advantage.

Poorly supply and lightly equipped China army was able to beat the overwhelming super powerful US allied force in both the Korea & Vietnam war, all by using superior tactical warfare to counter US-allied complete airspace controlled & overwhelming motorized fire power.

Ho Chih Min had also utilized guerilla warfare in Vietnam war, and famously said, even he will to exchange 10 to 1 with US allied force, he will win the war eventually. Because aggressors can never sustain the great loss like defender.

However, the best & least bloody way is for Amelia to give up all these lands to Azerbaijan in cordial way, since these lands are already internationally recognized as Azerbaijan’s. There is no moral high ground for anyone to military intervene for Amelia. The cost of trying to cling on these lands will be very high and painful for a long time.

Expansionism Hindutva India is still paying very high price in its illegal occupied lands of Ladakh, Kashmir, Jammu, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Sikkim, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pak, China…etc.

SevenMoons

This is a completely different situation.

Remember that Artskins expelled about 800,000 Azerbaijanis out of their homes in both NKAO and Armenia. When those people come back, there is no place for those Artskin guerilla to hide. Also look at the ISIS hidden in the desert in Syria, they can’t cause much damage. There were only 150,000 Artsins in total. I believe the remaining Artskins in “Artsakh” ware probably just 50,000 or fewer. But in China and Vietnam, local stay and they were not going anywhere. So the communists enjoyed a lot of support. Not the situation in NKAO.

Left in the “black mountains”, those Artskins will just rot in their caves. They would not get much supplies, no medical facilities when they get injured. They can’t survive like Mao’s army.

Arman Melkonyan

Azeris=Jews=Turks

https://moishekohen.wordpress.co
m/when-kemal-ataturk-recited-shema-yisrael-by-hillel-halkin-the-jewish-daily-forward/

RichardD

The Artsahks outnumbered 3 to 1 without reinforcements and weapons support from Armenia. Which Armenia could easily supply. Are outmanned and outgunned.

Even with terrain on their side. Without help from Armenia and or Russia. The Artsahks will be overrun. It’s a complete betrayal of Armenians by Pashinyan and his government to allow this defeat to occur.

If it happens. He will go down in history as one of the greatest traitors in Armenian history.

Harry Smith

Don’t worry about Pashinyan much. Betrayal is Armenians second name. Look at the guy Melkonyan. He put Byzantine flag as his avatar. But Byzantine was so many times betrayed by Armenians so it is just kinda joke when an Armenian put this flag as his avatar. IE in the battle of Manizkert, one of the key battles between Ottomans and Byzantine, the emperor Romanus lost the battle when Armenians run away from the right flank of Byzantine army. But it is not all. If you will try to google this, in most cases you will find nothing about Armenians or some cases that will say Armenians kept their fidelity. Only in the military manuals this battle is described as it really was.
So Armenians are traitors deep in the millenniums.

RichardD

It shouldn’t be surprising that they don’t have loyalty to foreign occupiers.

Previous administrations supported Artsahk, Pashinyan betrayed it.

Harry Smith

Well, Armenians were citizens of Byzantine and even several Byzantine emperors were of Armenian origin. Wouldn’t say Byzantine was occupier for Armenians in that time.

RichardD

I would put any foreign administration an occupier. There’s over 500 years of ethnic cleansing of Armenians by various extra territorial Turkish, Iranian and other administrations. If there were some Armenians in some administrations that doesn’t change the fact that the foreign administrations weren’t welcome there and were carrying out crimes against the Armenian people. That they eventually got rid of. N-K is a continuation of that.

Marin Petrić

That is sectarian madness for you when everyone think is batter than others. They arranged agreement with Greece but Greeks waited for too long until Armenian Archbishop, or how he was funnily named Chatolicos, died. And for betrails in our reagions, it’s normal. We were servants for most of the time.

Harry Smith

So it’s normal when everyone betray Armenians now. Even Christian Georgia opened its airspace for Turkish aviation which is supplying Azeris with guns, ammo and manpower.

Kohlhaas

Just a little detail, Manzikert was 200 years before Ottoman Emp. formed. Seljuks is the name you are looking for.

Harry Smith

Yep you are right.

SevenMoons

Because Parshinyan strongly believes he can rally the support from the global community, from USA, Russia and France. Also Greece, NATO and rest of the EU. Also Serbia, Ukraine and all other friendly countries.

But he got almost none. Just some talks from Russia about the “Radical Islam”.

RichardD

Pashinyan’s inaction shows his position. He has the air defense force to close the airspace over Armenia and Artsahk. And uses it only for Armenia.

He courts NATO, and gives Russia a hard time. At a minimum he could deploy troops and equipment to reinforce the security corridor and refuses to do so. He’s a traitor to the Armenian people.

Rhodium 10

Igor Strelkov is a poor man which was unable to prevent SBU double agents from murdering Donbass leaders…and thanks to Russian support Donbass is free from failed Ukraine!…the reason why Road are closed in NK is not for AZ control but to force Armenian army and air force to intervene to save civilians because military convoys are travelling through that road..coming soon we will see how Turkish backed terrorist ( AZ&Syrians) will ask to civilians to leave from there offering them a save corridor!…otherwise AZ will face problems if civilians continue be killing as consecuence of artillery!

Smedly

comment image comment image comment image Too bad Southfront will not let me post some videos. I have some real juicy ones of waves of dead Azeri Turkish and Jihadi scum. I’m talking huge amount of dead. For now take these pictures as the current state of affairs of the destruction of the Azeri forces.

comment image

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