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The situation inside Ukraine began to take on the shapes of chaos close to what was happening in Libya. The confusion on all sides, the mass distribution of weapons to the population, and the release of criminals from prisons took place amidst the bitterness of various groups in Ukraine against each other. Marauders unite in gangs and attack any facilities, equipment, and people, whenever they have an opportunity to do so.
Against the background of the objective successes of Russian, LPR and DPR forces on the fronts, the Kiev administration has focused on informational warfare. In this arena, with the total support of NATO countries, Kiev is gaining an unqualified victory. These successes fuel the impunity of radical formations against civilians that are literally being used as human shields against the advancing forces. The most striking examples of such activity can be seen in Kharkiv, Mariupol, and Volnovakha. It seems that Moscow ignored that for at least eight years the inhabitants of Ukraine have been under massive informational anti-Russian pressure.
On the battlefield, the situation is ambiguous. There are clear successes of DPR and LPR forces, while the successes of the Russian military vary in different regions.
On February 28, DPR forces continued their offensive toward Mariupol from the northeast and east, while Russian units advanced from the west and northwest. DPR forces took control of the large settlement of Granitnoye and the nearby areas. By March 1, they had reached the urban area of Mariupol.
The DPR also conducted successful operations to the west of the Donetsk-Mariupol line in the direction of Volnovakha. The H-20 road linking Mariupol and Volnovakha is currently under direct fire from DPR forces.
From the western direction, units of the Russian grouping are within 30 kilometers from the city of Mariupol. Apparently seeking to encircle the entire Kiev forces in the region, the Russians are waiting for adjacent units to advance from Tokmak to the east and northeast.
At the same time, Russian forces encircled Kherson city, but have not entered it. No advances towards Mykolaiv have been noted. It remains unclear what caused the panic and shootings there on February 27-28. Apparently, this is either the result of some subversive actions by Russia sheer panic among the locals. A similar situation is unfolding in Odessa.
The Russians, DPR and LPR are advancing towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Rocket and air strikes are being launched against Kiev forces in these regions. The level of success in blocking these settlements from the direction of the main strike is not evident.
Kharkiv remains the most difficult direction for the Russians. The grouping there is objectively insufficient to either blockade the city or to storm it. The Russian military is forbidden to strike targets within residential areas, at the same time Kiev’s units purposely position themselves in residential areas and do not hesitate to strike the outskirts of the city.
On February 28 and early on March 1, Russian units carried out successful tactical operations in the Kiev direction capturing Nizhyn. On the evening of February 28, missile strikes were launched against the Ukrainian checkpoints on the Brovarskoye Highway. Russian tanks are advancing towards the Kiev-Chernihiv highway. Some pro-Kiev forces are withdrawing from Chernihiv towards Kiev. The counter-attacks are expected.
Kiev is partially blockaded and a humanitarian corridor through Vasylkiv has been opened. The city is blockaded from the north, northwest, and from the direction of Bucha-Gostomel and Russian units are in close proximity to the urban areas.
In general, it seems that the Russian command overestimated the ability of its units to deliver crushing blows in several directions under the conditions of total superiority of the enemy in the information warfare arena and, as a result, the hostile attitude of the population in the operational area.
On the other hand, despite the limited forces of the advancing Russian troops, the Russians manage to divide their opponent’s strength in various directions, which does not allow Kiev forces to concentrate means and measures for a decisive defense or counterattack in a separate direction.