Balance Of Power In Middle East In ‘Post-ISIS Era’

Donate

Loading the player...

If you’re able, and if you like our content and approach, please support the project. Our work wouldn’t be possible without your help: PayPal: southfront@list.ru or via: http://southfront.org/donate/ or via: https://www.patreon.com/southfront

In March, Moscow became the center of the diplomatic activity of global and regional powers involved in a number of the ongoing crises in the Middle East. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is due in Moscow March 9 for a two-day visit. He will meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and will participate in a session of the Council on High-Level Cooperation between Russia and Turkey. At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit Moscow and to meet Putin. The two leaders will discuss the current situation in the Middle East and aspects of the Palestinian-Israeli settlement, according to the Kremlin press service. UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow in the coming weeks. It will be the first UK foreign secretary visit to the country since 2012. High profile Swiss diplomats involved in the so-called “Geneva format” aimed on “resolving the Syrian conflict” and some military and political officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran will also visit Moscow, according to available information. On March 8-9, Germany’s Foreign Minister Siegmar Gabriel will make a visit to Moscow to meet with his Russian counterpart.

Earlier this month:

  • On March 1, Deputy Foreign Minister and Special Presidential Representative for the Middle East and Africa Mikhail Bogdanov met with Secretary-General of the League of Arab States Ahmed Aboul-Gheit.
  • On March 2, Lavrov met with Prime Minister of the Government of National Accord of Libya Fayez al-Sarraj.
  • On March 3, Bagdanov meet with a representative of the leader of the Lebanese Progressive Socialist Party.
  • On March 7, Bagdanov met with Palestinian Ambassador to Russia Abdel Hafiz Nofal. At the same day, Bogdanov and Yitzhak Herzog, the head of the Zionist Union and the the Israeli Labor Party and the leader of the opposition in the Israeli parliament, discussed the situation in Syria and the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The dramatic incensement of the diplomatic activity comes amid the increased instability in Libya, the de-facto predetermined collapse of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, the tensions in the Golan Heights area and the new round of the Israeli-Palestine crisis. The new Israeli law which retroactively legalizes 4,000 Jewish settler homes built on private Palestinian property in the West Bank, the no-tolerance strategy towards Palestinian protesters push to the radicalization of the Israeli-Arab standoff in the region. After the collapse of ISIS, its former members could join existing or create new radical Sunni organizations exploiting the Israeli-Arab tensions in order to gain funds and support. The growth of terrorist activity and further deterioration of the security in Israel will be the easily expected result.

At the same time, the course of the Syrian conflict allows Hezbolalh to get more free means and resources at the Syrian-Israeli and the Israeli-Lebanese border. This also sets a ground for further escalation amid the continued Israeli military strikes against Hezbollah and Syrian army targets.

The hardline anti-Iranian and pro-Israeli stance of the new administration of White House is another fact in the expected crisis. On the one hand, the Trump administration supports Israel in the growing confrontation and aims to limit the Russian-Iranian cooperation and the Iranian influence in the region. On the other hand, White House has wide plans of anti-ISIS military operations in Syria’s Raqqah and Deir Ezzor, and Iraq’s Mosul. Iran plays a key role in both countries and the US-led coalition de-facto cooperates with pro-Iranian forces in Iraq. The Iranian-Syrian-Russian alliance also plays a key role in the standoff in northern Syria where Turkey aims to crack down US-backed Kurdish forces. In both cases, White House is pushed to cooperate with Tehran directly or indirectly.

In this situation, Ankara pursues a goal of creating the Turkish-controlled puppet state in northern Syria and seeks to expand further its military and diplomatic influence with participating in the US-led Raqqah advance – what is not possible while the US directly backs Kurdish forces. The UK diplomacy plays a role of the medium of the global elites’ stance.

All these allow supposing that the ongoing Moscow-centered diplomatic developments will likely frame the balance of power in the Middle East in the post-ISIS period. The aforementioned complex of meetings and events could be compared to the Teheran Conference in 1943 when all key players understand that the regional relations will shift dramatically but the prospects of this shift is not clear.

Donate

SouthFront

Do you like this content? Consider helping us!

  • Brad Isherwood

    US SOF appear to be In* Manbij and outlying.
    Unless a deal is arranged for Turks to have Manbij,….Turks have their Safe zone and no more.

    Israel has a soft undeclared Safe Zone from Golan to Daraa Province which is at present
    Seeing SAA operating at Daraa city with Hezbollah and IRGC operating in the Region, ..

    Netanyahu wisks off to Moscow to get pledges?

    The Rand map for Syria has a International Administration zone covering the Euphrates
    And outlying oil nat gas fields of Syria East,
    This label is something to look for in Syrian negotiations at Astana or Geneva.

  • Brad Isherwood

    A review of recent history

    http://www.ecowatch.com/syria-another-pipeline-war-1882180532.html?page=4

    Am reminded that US forces discovered Iraqi ammunition dumps…guarding them,
    Then suddenly the munitions became Mechanical IED,and morph to cell phone trigger
    IEDs. …

    American military command ensured the Resistance* would cause casualties which
    Via media spin….steered public opinion to continue support of occupation under the
    Guise of Security and Freedom for Iraqis.

    Same occured in Afghanistan.

  • gfsdyughjgd .

    It is embarrassing to be associated with Erdogan ISIS mastermind camouflage under Syrian saboteurs FSA head chopper.

  • NeoLeo

    Erdogan, Netanyahu and Boris Johnson…

  • Xanatos

    At this point, Britain is giving up on its attempt to isolate Russia. They recognize they must work with Russia.

  • Douglas Houck

    Time to decide the winners and the losers as the end is near.

    How many years has the northern ME been in conflict? And now a sort of peace. Will be interesting to see what rises from the ashes.

    I don’t see ISIS bothering Israel as the source of funds (SA and Qatar) are allies of Israel.

    • Brad Isherwood

      Possibly a Fake Syrian Democratic thingy which opposes the Iranians IRGC and
      Hezbollah.

      Israel does not want to fight Iran toe to toe,…..they desire others wear Iran down and continue sanctions/isolation.

      Iran’s sanctions on obtaining international armaments ….expires in 2020.

      • Douglas Houck

        Israel is going to be a big loser. They are not going to isolate Iran and there is nobody left to bother Iran. Iran is too important to the economic future of Eurasia.

        Other than SA, Qatar and Israel, everybody wants peace so they can increase trade and get on with their lives. It’s why China has asked to talk with the Taliban. China needs peace, at least in Pakistan if not Afghanistan for their One Belt One Road (OBOR) project. For China and Russia to break the domination of the US and its allies, Eurasia needs to expand economically. Everything hinged on first defeating all the jihadist fighters.

        Russia has expended too much blood and treasure to let Iran go down. And beside, Iran has the military technology to defend itself. Their recent launch of medium range missile (enough to reach Israel) which was able to hit a small barge out in the ocean shows it has the ability (along with the spiral technology of the Kornet ATGM which they have reversed engineered that can defeat Israel’s Iron Dome system) they don’t care that much about Israeli threats. It’s why Iran recently told Israel that they would destroy their nuclear reactors and facilities if Israel attacked them. Israel is too small to afford losing that much land to radioactive contamination.

        Get some popcorn and watch the show. The world is going to change whether it wants to or not.

        • Thegr8rambino

          hahaha i love it…

        • NeoLeo

          I don’t think so: Russia did not lose, US did not win, Assad survived, Turkey failed miserably, Saudis and Iran continue their rivalry, but the only true winner here is – ISRAEL. Syria (their main regional adversary in the last 40years /or more) is destroyed, depopulated, in ruins, one big graveyard basically, unable to recover, or even to unite for who knows how many more decades, they are neutralized if not completely eliminated, Hazbollah is just a minor inconvenience not a strategic problem. Sure, Iran is still there, but so is Trump… Israel achieved all that without risking their own troops, without spilling their jewish blood, without a single shekel, and no one (well, almost no one) is blaming them for this tragedy.

          • Thegr8rambino

            Syria? I thought Iran was their main adversary for that long. And while you said some truths, ultimately I think Douglas will be proven correct.

          • George Fotiadis

            Completely right, Israel is the winner (with US backup) Iraq was also destroyed for Israels sake, both country’s had strong military’s and where a threat for Israel.

          • Douglas Houck

            Thanks for your reply. And while I don’t disagree with your points that Israel has gone through this unscathed, nor that Syria has paid an enormous price, I don’t share your view on who is the main adversary of Israel nor that Israel won anything from this conflict.

            Syria has not been a main adversary to Israel since Syria lost with Egypt in the ’67 war. Israel has always stated for the last several decades that they view Iran as their existential enemy. Syria is too small a state and unable to design and manufacture military weapons of significance to be a primary threat.

            I found President Al-Assad’s Kosmsomolskaya Pravda newspaper Oct. 2016 interview most illuminating:
            http://sana.sy/en/?p=90442
            Read especially Questions 2 and 10.

            The Gulf Arab states and Israel view Iran as their main adversary:
            http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iran-idUSKBN15Y09R

            Israel is a loser in the Syrian war because they wanted to break the connection between Iran and Hezbollah. Not going to happen. Israel has gone to Russia to get assurances that Hezbollah won’t be allowed to keep it’s tanks and other heavy military equipment, but that is still up in the air.

            The problem Israel has is that up till now they have been able to use land as a buffer between themselves and their adversaries. The current weapons technology has eliminated that advantage.

            Both Kissinger and Brzezinski have stated that Israel won’t last long term if it won’t learn to live with its neighbors. Brzezinski called it Fortress Israel. I agree with both of them.

            Yes, Syrian has born the brunt of this insanity, and the people who backed it should be tried and hanged as real Crimes Against Humanity. The positive aspect for Syria is that it has coalesced around the concept that they are a true nation state that they are proud of and want to preserve. They have a long road ahead, but I don’t see it taking decades. They do still have to address the original issues from the 2011 era and it won’t be easy.

            President Trump has limited options with Iran as nobody is going to back more economic sanctions and I doubt seriously that he will try anything militarily. Iran is only going to get stronger in the near to mid-term.

            The real question is that as the oil and natural gas begin to run out in the later half of this century, will the Eurasian nations have in place an economic and political system that will carry them forward. Who knows.

    • metobardon
  • Rodney Loder

    It wasn’t long ago Turkey was up to damming the rivers, that didn’t Turkey found was untenable, the same holds good for when my Brothers (lS) lose out and throw in with I hope the resistance since the enemy of Allah is Pharisee jews (pseudo jews), but that’s up to us.
    ++–++ Now ! Behold ! what’s the difference between a provocation and an opportunity, ++–++ Trump’s amateurish grouping in the dark is an opportunity and a unescorted woman in a dark location is a provocation.
    It’s only understandable by Salafists because we fear Allah, everyone else would just root the bitch.
    Excuse my humour.

  • cock jesus

    Prostitues are losing that means turks are losing. Turks have been the cheapest prostitutes what The history of Mankind has ever ever experienced.
    Who is going to f*ck turks next and give them little money.

  • Jean de Peyrelongue

    As long as Israel, Turkey and the US are occupying part of Syria, peace is not possible; we may have an armistice but it will not last.
    I am afraid that we are going to have a de facto Syria’s partition with a Kurdish area occupied by the US and the Golan by Israel. The justification of the US’s occupation will be to tranquilize Turkey against Kurds aggression.
    Therefore, it will be difficult to rebuild Syria. Russia and Iran already helped a lot Syria but both are ressources limited. Only China would have the ability to rebuild the country and might not let Israel or the US to bomb them.
    Israel and the US are rogue states and they will keep-on generating chaos wherever they can. With KSA and Qatar, they want a regime’s change in Iran and bring back the Yemen to the middle age. As soon as they will be confident that Russia is not going to move, they will attack Iran massively to prevent a negative impact on Israel. This could happen this year.

    • Brad Isherwood

      http://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE233.html

      Download or open the PDF…
      The Rand Partition Map….with the East Syria Euphrates – International Administration zone.

      Once the UN gets its paws in Syria. …it will be reduced to abject poverty as its resources get
      Pillaged by the Bankers and Elites.

      And…as many this thread coment,….Israhell wins!